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Old 24-08-10   #8
pcpune is offline pcpune
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gery128 View Post
Hey All,

Can anybody tell me when would prices come down ? I know no one can predict perfectly but all have different perceptions.

I don't know the when is peak/high time for properties and when it is low time during financial year.

Please share your views.

Girish
No, the prices dont actually go mdown by more than 10-30%, however if it stays the same for the next 4 years - it means it has stayed the same since 2007, and if I consider prices is Kothrud in 2004 to be 2000 per sq feet, at 4500 per sq feet in 2014- its a case of ZERO return - inflation adjusted.


Hence, to beat inflation and to break even - on an average which is 7% -- the property price needs to double by DEFAULT in 10 years.

Now, if you take a loan at 10%, the property price needs to appreciate atleast by 17% PER YEAR - JUST TO BREAK EVEN --- which is surely not going to happen over the next 3-5 years...

Hence, even if the prices dont RISE, you still lose - unless the prices appreciate by 17% each year.....for the next 3-5 years, and for the next 20 years.

Hence, what happpened between 2003-2007 -- a meterioc 100% to 300% rise, needs to consolidate over the next 5-10 years -- thats the law of averages.

The global rate if return in Real Estate is 5% including India and China - and inflation adjusted it is ZERO, however some of us got lucky by entering at the RIGHT time (say in 2005)and more importantly EXITING at the RIGHT earning a cool 50-100%(say in 2007) -- INFLATION ADJUSTED.

Last edited by pcpune; 24-08-10 at 08:22 PM.
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