Economist

Venky,
Everyone understands Chennai RE has some (Once again some) correlation to the global macro economy, but there is also a large local factor (Ie. Black money corrupts political and bureaucrats, local business, SUPPLY & DEMAND, land shortage, local population growth and local micro economy & local market/factors).

Your contribution about potential moist insurgency, war with China & Pakistan etc, I do not know where they belong.

I said verbiage not garbage.

Don’t you see you are hijacking a Chennai RE forum to a global economy forum?

Most of your contributions are better off at - ]http://indianeconomy.org/[/URL]

strongsville

Good one Economist. It makes sense.

strongsville

Thanks Nats. I will. Since you are seeking psychiatrist's help already, why don't you just take me to your doctor?

You Mental, advising others to seek mental help. Funny guy

You are like Bal Thackrey calling Amir and SRK "2 Idiots". Now whole India is asking who the third one is? and the answer is Bal Thackery himself.

strongsville

My advice to you Economist. Stop addressing this nut case "Almighty". Almighty is a powerful word and you know who it refers to .

Nats is Nuts and call him by his name.

Venkytalks

Economist, I also said verbiage, not garbage.

Wars are bad for RE. Including in Chennai, which is far from the north. Because much of Chennai's RE is dependent on IT exports abroad and Auto exports to north India.

Someone else said civil wars are likely in India. I agreed and gave details.

If you do not like it, get off this thread, go somewhere else, there are numerous threads in Chennai discussing RE.

Wars have following implications for RE:

Stock market collapse
Currency collapse
Flight of capital from country
Flight of rich individuals abroad
Lack of NRI interest in Indian RE
Lack of IT professionals returning to India and buying RE abroad instead

Both Commercial and residential RE is strongly correlated to every one of those.

It is a risk and has to be weighed, evaluated and priced in according to probability.

How much weight to give to every risk is the main component of good investing, including RE investments.

Again, it is not necessary for you to read what does not interest you. Read other threads. Others might want to evaluate political risk to their investments.

wiseman

Folks,

In order not to scare away people who are not hardened to really bearish stuff, I continue to "sanitize" the posts and only put in very mild terms what I believe will happen globally. And if you think that global issues do not affect Chennai RE, just watch 2010 - 2012!!!

Now, let me take off the gloves for a while and give you a glimpse of what some of us believe will happen globally in the next 2-3 years.

First of all, every single significant crash in the world in the last 300+ years has resulted in Wars of global proportions (in the earlier days the Europeans thought Europe was the world!). From the way this decline is building up, we seem to be on track for this crash also to be one of the epic declines. So, though under normal circumstances I would look a little sceptically at Venky's China War theory, it seems plausible today, especially given the enormous social issues China is about to come upon. And India is a great target (initially). Nearby, with Pakistan as proxy partner, with a significant Maoist disruption within (which the Govt is not doing anything to resolve, all the time taking the side of Big Business to screw the really poor who go on to provide the highly motivated foot-soldiers of the Maoists).

Anyways, you also saw how, with the Dollar Carry Trade unwinding rapidly, last week saw around half a billion $$$ being pulled out and markets came tumbling down here.

Let me just say (to keep the verbiage controlled) that we have not even begun to bring out the really bearish stuff. So, I would not agree with Economist, Nats, etc that we are already doing scare-mongering. We are merely stating that people should be responsible towards themselves and understand that economic fault-lines globally run very, very deep and may take many years and severe pain to resolve before we get onto good times.

Therefore, they must not be too hasty in getting into highly leveraged (deep debt) RE at such ridiculously high prices and allow maybe 6 months of 2010 to pass and see whether things really go bad and fear again returns, before getting into such situations.

Is that too scary a situation to contemplate? If it is, you are really not prepared for what seems to be coming down the road!

At that time, no amount of black money, political influence, demnd-supply, etc will be enough to keep up prices and why get into such a sticky situation in the first place if all you got to do is watch or some more time before jumping into the fire?

Isn't that reasonable?

cheers

REUser

According to me, for anything to exist, good or bad, there are two factors are required : Support(desire, wish, need etc) and Sustainability( Maintainability, Stability, Ability etc),
I prefer Support & Sustainability, some what catchy to me)

Sustainability -> continuing Support

For example, a seed sown on earth, it sprouts when its get the basic support and grows into to tree, when it sustains.

It can be appicable to anything bribery, corruption, RE, Global Warming etc.

Coming to RE, the question is, can the RE sustain its unprecedented growth, bubble or whatever you call, it had due to the IT sector Boom, easy money, cheap interest rates, continuous rotation of money in RE during 2004-2007 and govt. stimulus during 2008-2009?

Does RE in 2010, has the Sustainability it got during the boom period?
If you think yes RE will grow else it will stagnate for a long time or dip in the short term (less chance) till the support comes.

Coming to Civil war,after which India will be a true democratic, my reasons are

Percentage of people getting richer is decreasing day by day and Percentage of people getting poorer is increaing day by day, mainly due to the Inflation, which reduces purchasing power of the people, which is in converse from the Below Poverty Line estimates (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poverty_in_India)

Unfavourable RE also pushes the middle class people to poor people.

Lack of value system, proper education system, food, even water.

Attitude towards "Survival of the fittest" which is truly not Indian,but its American.

blogger

I too agree with Economist's post. Some induviduals in this forum either want the chennai RE to crash for personal reasons or they simply are training themselves in writing skills or economics.

I would advice people looking for some genuine advices for serious investment not to get perturbed by such posts. Use common sense and your own judgement based on facts and market realities.

I have seen some induviduals ridiculing chennai RE so intensely last year. Same induviduals have changed for good. Maybe they have started seeing the realities of the market and trend that I wish they share here for the benefit of others.

enduser

Gloves?



Yes Sir, that is indeed reasonable ....

sri_idea

next thing we'll hear is ...

during the war chennai will be bombed and you may lose your life...that doesn't matter ...just make sure you DON'T invest in chennai RE and lose your money