Almighty

Wiseman,
You seem to say that crude behaviour is reserved for you. Who are you to say what is expected of ABK as if you are his boss?
You seem to be having no support even from your own managed sources like the lovebirds of yesteryears. So you seem to have gone into deep depression.
If you want to come out of it, then Valium alone wont help. You need to accept the truths.
1. You Wiseman are wrong and incorrect in being a bear and a boor.
2. You need to learn from more sane souls who are doing you a favour by trying to help you understand the truth.
Until then, you can continue with PLAIN VALIUM.
cheers.

Almighty

You cant ask Wiseman to stop. If he does he wont get that small pay per post he gets and he will end up in penury. So enjoy his crap my friend.

Almighty

You are saying HOPEFULLY for your foolish bearish views. Now after 2 years shows how clumsy you are. We have heard Wiseman for two years and we know he is incorrect. We dont want the same incorrect views indefinitely just because you are hopeful he will be right.
If you missed the bus Rajesh, the try to get the bus in a different stop or find the next bus. Dont imagine the bus will come back to pick you as if it is Kolkatta!!

subramaniansubbiah

I am a prospective buyer for a property in Chennai for personal use.
I have read through various messages and they have really valuable information.
I will answer to following questions based on my understandings
QUESTIONS:
1. Where is the property price heading?
2. Will make a profit or loss?
3. Should I wait or not?
4. What will happen to my job or Salary?

ANSWERS:
Before we try to answer these questions, we should understand certain basic things.
Observation1: - Reason for Realty boom and Crash:
------------------------------------------------------------
The growth that we have seen in the past few year especially past decade is
due to excessive accumulation of forex reserves by Reserve Bank.
It has reached 300Billion dollars at peak time.
RBI has released 30 X 4500 Crores = 13,50000 Crores into the system in the
last 5 years to support exporters which has caused the rally in the last 5 years.
It reduced to 250billion dollars when the markets touched all time low.
There was a sudden capital flight of 50billion dollars from the reserves over 6 months.
This never happended so far in the indian history.
50Billion = 50Billion X 4500 Crores = 225000 Crores
Sudden evaporation of 225000 Crores from India caused overall realestate price crash.

Observation2:
----------------
As the confidence in the global increased (due to bailout and further bailout will be there),
our forex reserves are up now by 280Billion dollars.
We got 30Billion dollars in the last 6 months.
RBI has released 30 X 4500 Crores = 135000 Crores in the last six months.
This increased liquidity and more money was supplied to people and it causes inflation.
If RBI has not released this much dollars in the last six months rupee would have appreciated to 41 or 42.
And inflation also would have become under control.
However, the government did not do that to protect the exporters.

Observation3:
----------------
A country can not export high tech () and low end (textile and etc).
Unfortunately, India is a country which exports both.
That is why you see spiralling high inflation compared to other asian countries
coupled with every growing population.
So those who export low end will suffer a lot going forward as export will continue to grow
irrespective of whatever the market conditions and it is high tech and We all should be proud of it.
If you work in low end export, you should seriously rethink and diversify yourself to domestic sales.

Observation4:
----------------
If we answer to following questions, it will answer to our initial questions.
1.Will Rupee Appreciate or RBI defend rupee going forward?
At first, it can not forever.
As RBI has intervened too much in the last 5 years and it lead to huge supply of money.
Unfortunately RBI has lost that tool.
Infact, RBI is desparate to make rupee appreciate to control inflation which is based in inflows
which is moderate now a days
That explains, there will be steady and slow appreciation of indian rupee which is already happening.
The rupee touched a all time low of 52 and it is reeling now around 45-46.It means it is back in track.
However, it has appreciated significantly against Euro (From all time peak of 69 to 62 now)
and Pound (From all time peak of 88 - Current 68).
Currently, the ship is tilted towards European side (due to Soverign debt crisis) and
it will shift to US sometime later.
This time when Euro and pound depreciated against Dollar,
Indian rupee did not depreciate because of fundamental strength (which is a good sign).
However, due to global risk aversion it did not appreciate further.
CONCLUSION1:
------------------
The rupee will appreciate in coming months/years and
that will be a major headache for as well.
Tier1 Vendors will survive because of volume advantage.
Tier2 Vendors will have difficulties.
Tier3 Small Vendors will have to die or give a salary cut as there will be more attrition to Tier2 and Tier1.
2.Will there be heavy capital inflow going forward?
CONCLUSION2:
------------------
I dont think we will see a strong capital flow going forward however moderate inflow can be expected.
That means we wont see another bull run in the realty like what we saw in the last 5 years.
And also rupee will appreciate very slowly and steadily and in a way it is also good.
3.Will there be another capital flight seen?
CONCLUSION3:
------------------
I dont think we will see a capital flight as well.
That means we wont see another crash in the realty.
SO WHAT...?
Real estate will be flat in the already high priced sectors.
Real estate will show sluggish growth in the remote areas.

Questions:
-------------
1. Where is the property price heading?
Real estate will be Flat in the city area.
Sluggish/Moderate Growth in the Remote Area. This will be natural based on the population growth.
We need to measure with the time horizon of 5-10 years.
2. Will make a profit or loss?
If you are an end user, you dont have to worry because you are going to live in the house.
After all, the high salary that you are paid due to the currency manipulations.
If you are an investor, it depends on your choice and analysis but a growth rate of
what you experienced can not be expected going forward.
3. Should I wait or not?
If you have money and if you stay in a rented house, you can buy a house any time.
Ensure your EMI is less than half of your take home salary.
(If you get a salary cut, you should still should be able to pay the EMI)
4. What will happen to my job or Salary?
You can expect definite salary cut (if at onsite rupee appreciation or if at offshore no increments/ or a cut.)
It is a trade off between global crisis (minus) and population growth (plus).
Finally, I am neutral on real estate.
Before I wind up:
When you have more debt, you are worried that you can not pay.
If you have more money, you are worried because of where to invest/investment loss.

But if you realise onething, when you are a school boy and
you might not have all these luxurious and money, you were much happy and healthy than now.

That means you will be still be more happy than what you are even if you lose anything.

At the end of day, dont be greedy and help others as much as possible
which will benefit in the hours of crisis.

REUser

Thanks for adding a different flavour.

RBI is a failed agency.
It has lost its direction.

Inflation has to be half of GDP at the max, for smooth running of economy.

Lets see what is in store in April during Policy Review.

shyame2

[quote=subramaniansubbiah;64132]I am a prospective buyer for a property in Chennai for personal use.
I have read through various messages and they have really valuable information.
I will answer to following questions based on my understandings
QUESTIONS:
1. Where is the property price heading?
2. Will make a profit or loss?
3. Should I wait or not?
4. What will happen to my job or Salary?

Well done for your detailed analysis. Makes lots of sense

sridhga

Can you suggest something that RBI could have done better?

Srinidhi

subramaniansubbiah ,



Keep up the good work.

m_square

read the whole 11 pages of this thread... Whoaa...

All the ppl in the house... plz get in BULLISH moods for this yr... RE price hikes, salary increments, jobs, onsites, perks are here to stay... Bling Bling $$

__________________

REUser

Ideally speaking, unless one is looking RE as an Investment tool, one should not bothered about Bullish or Bearish outlook in RE, like in stock market.

If you got cash or able to get loan from Bank (40% of Gross at Max), found an affordable flat at the desired location, then one should go for it