rvenkat2

Wiseman, Good analysis and prediction. I completely agree. I am an NRI who owned property in US and sold in the height of bubble 70% profits..now I am waiting to buy in chennai..no hurries though. I also feel it is just the beginning, quite a bit to go. Would be interesting. I saw an apartment in poes garden for 75laks at 3800per sqft in 2004 and I thought it was expensive. Ha! Now it is something like 12000 per sqft. It should come back to ground.

senthilmurugan

How to check the real estate status on daily basis? Please advice.

wiseman

Senthil,

No offense here. If I got your question right, just trying to help you avoid the mistakes I made in life earlier!

I also spent a part of my youth (meaning around 15 years ago) doing the same thing in the Stock Market. Went nuts trying to track several prices on a minute to minute basis - with TV today, millions of people do that every day - a National waste! And their moods go up and down along with the index

I then realised that it was a complete waste of time. Do it like the professionals do it (say Warren Buffet in Stocks or Sam Zell in Real Estate). Each of these guys are willing to wait not just for a few years. They are willing to wait for decades!!!

So, when the markets crashed in 1991 after the S&L fiasco, the US created what was called the Resolution Trust Corporation to bail out the finance companies and buy out all the distressed properties and sell them at bonanza prices.

"U.S. government agency created by the 1989 bailout bill to merge or close savings and loan institutions becoming insolvent between 1989 and August 1992. The RTC was terminated in 1996 ..."

Sam Zell used this opportunity to finance himself to the hilt and bought huge number of properties at bargain basement prices and used them to rent and create huge cashflows and reinvested repeatedly to ultimately become a billionaire from then on till today based on astute property management. About Warren there is nothing left to say !

So, you don't have to track the market every day unless you are an agent or trader in the markets. And they do not generally make the big swings - simply because they do not hold assets for long enough like the big guys mentioned above.

Unless you have a valid reason - trading, etc - track it once in a while, say monthly or even quarterly. In these times, prices will move rather slowly, either way.

Did I read your question wrong?

cheers

Sovi

Dear Senthil, but why do want to do that? One of the researches by Univ of Illinois stated that the more frequently you follow the daily swings of the market, the more mistakes you make! Reason is simple: We lose the fundamentals and get carried away by the moves!

Natarajg007

US is not India and NRIs no longer are glamorous. In 2002 the director of the US office of the MNC I was in, was earning around 2 times in real terms the salary I was getting in INdia. TOday the equations are so developed that the INdian head gets much more than US heads in many software organisations. And most NRIs continue to be Software engineers even after 20 years some specialising in the same set of 100 test cases as one funny guy in BNR was many years ago (Manikka Thygarajan was his name!). WHen the 100 test cases become obsolete his job disappears. So dont ask me why Poes garden price goes up. It deserves to go up, not some suburb 40 miles away from Atlanta where u might be living.
DONT COMPARE INDIA WITH US. You NRIs disappeared from India since U COULD NOT SURVIVE HERE. Now dont tell us rules here are laid by the FAILED RULES OF USA. Very soon Rupee will get stronger and your dollar is going to dumps. And if u keep a dollar deposit in US you will be getting negative interest already. IF YOU WERE NOT CAPABLE OF BUYING A FLAT IN POES GARDEN IN 2004 THEN U ARE ONLY CAPABLE TODAY OF BUYING A FLAT IN VAYALUR.
ROTFL.

smartboy

Nats,

In one of your posting you derived RE prices will go up once $ vs Rs value tending to 1$->200Rs. Now it seems to be a reverse logic, if rupee is getting stronger, obviously RE prices has to come down.

Natarajg007

U bet u r right. That is assuming price went up due to NRI investment. Now it will go up due to internal growth. US is dying for now so investment from them to India is also possible since their currency is dying and they need avenues to invest. Think of it. If Indian govt allowed foreign players in, after next election, u will see a super boom. Remember even today a foreigner cant buy Indian realestate.

Natarajg007

Please note. NRIs are cheapos by nature. They will buy something which is cheap, not something that is worthwhile. So they missed this boom and those that entered in 2006 sold out desperately in 2007 and are now clamouring for prices to fall. On the other hand foreigners look for good investments. So money coming in this time will be if their currency collapses which is the case with Dollar. So it is better for rupee to strengthen in a dollar killed market than for rupee to just shoot up to 200 vs dollar which is indian govt intervention to prevent price falling. Ofcourse there is one trouble, Indian salaries from foreign sources will fall but well investment from abroad will more than unset this.
IN simple. If rupee depreciates then it is artificially keeping Indian realestate price stable for prevention of economic collapse by Indian govt. That was what I said before.
Today things are better. With Dollar literally on the street, India will become an investment destination. So this is a genuine boom atleast for sometime to come.
In other words if I can buy a sexy villa in Hacienda Heights today by selling my land in Vadapalani, if Dollar depreciated method works then I will buy 2 Hacienda villas in California in the next 2 years with the same Vadapalani land. In the rupee depreciation method I would not be able to do that.

wiseman

Folks,

I DO NOT TAKE PLEASURE in calling a Bear Market. But I do take pride in calling it correctly MUCH BEFORE IT HAPPENS so that people can be warned and take evasive action in advance and avoid the worst of the hit!

Natraj has gone ballistic and is probably employing multiple people to type in random comments (call it rants, if you like) across the entire forum. Like the FED going to near-zero rate, this is unprecedented here. But fun anyway to see one man take on the entire forum and try talking the price up even after all the builders and bankers have given up!!!

And this is why I think he is going ballistic. With these reports below, I believe that the "news" is finally out and Nats is probably seeing all his well-crafted property spculations going for a big toss. Please read all these reports yourself and come to your own conclusion about where we are headed in next 6 months:

1. House dream crashes in Bangalore, DNA
http://www.dnaindia.com/report.asp?newsid=1213947

2.GOING, GOING, GONE, http://indiahousingbubble..com/2008/12/going-going-gone.html
Read the comments after the blog, gives you the mood of the crowd here

3. Top Builders meet to discuss slashing prices, - This guy seems to be a Big Bear!
http://indiahousingbubble..com/

You can plug in more posts, but it seems that 1 in 10 loans in Bangalore Banks portfolios are in trouble. And we have not even officially entered recession.

So, what do you guys think? That somehow other IT centers (not to mention manufacturing centers like the Sriperambudur, Ranipet and Hosur Belts in TN) will somehow escape this severe recession coming up? Are they getting their business from Mars?

As mentioned already, please understand this well here and now.

This will be a slow and excruciatingly painful decline! Do not believe that it will end in 3 or 6 months - it has not even started seriously, and the source, US and EU and Japan see the end only after 2010 at the earliest!

Get out of debt at any cost as early as possible - of course if you don't there is a good chance the Banks will anyway force you out of debt by taking away your asset; but that is not what I mean here! With so many properties (there is mention of thousands of properties in Bangalore by Corporation Bank - need to validate that info) being repossessed all of these will be put into market by banks immediately for resale at any price they will get - unlike Builders who are artificially trying to keep the prices "above their costs". With hardly any buyers, there will be a stampede of selling when the first bunch of weak borrowers buckle and rush to market.

Do not believe me. Please be patient and watch it unfold. I am ready to admit that I was wrong, in case this does not happen in next 1-2 years. But we need to wait till it fully unfolds. Its not enough to see short bursts of activity and believe that the worst is over.

All the best on your debt elimination.

cheers

ks2071746

Most advts. of even 6 months still remain in the web sites as the people who have given the advts. do not bother to remove the same once their property is sold. Only when you phone up, then they will tell, it is already sold.
ks2071746