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Old 12-10-08   #1
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Default Is it Over - Bubble burst by liquidity Crisis

India's growth was fueled by the abundant global cash liquidity.

A corporate bank could borrow for 2% in Japan and invest in India's Debt market for 7% - 8%.Profit for nothing - Untill recently.

Any Indian PE firm,Venture capitalist or large builder could walk in to global market with a project and money was thrown at them.

Now the global cash flow has come to a grinding halt.

Banks are not lending (Short term reserve) to another bank fearing the Bank would collapse.

25 global banks have collapsed in 10 days (US,Europe and Asia).

1 European country is Bankarupt (Iceland)

18 major countries have entered recession (Includeing US,UK,Australia,Germany,Japan,NZ,South Korea etc)

Leaman Brothers was 168 years old,It had survived the great Depression in 1930's but dead now.

India Real estate will starve for cash.
Builders will not buy new lands for future projects.
Builders will sell most of their land bank for liquid cash.

I am an Economist - I havent seen (Or heard) of fall currency and Index this fast.

This is worst than 1930's Great depression.

The fuel (Liquidity and cash flow) for the Real estate fire is over.

Bank will not lend without large security to small and medium builders.

No cheap money and easy finance - Lot of projects (all kind of industries) will come to a halt or will not eventuate.

Please Turn on real TV,Surf the real media world wide or talk your friends Overseas.

It is all interconnected - FII are not risking there money in Indian Money Market (Look at the fall in INR)

The Real estate boom Is well and truly dead.

Need to wait for another 8-10 years for the next up cycle.

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Old 17-10-08   #2
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Question Are the existing Real Estate values likely to hold?

I bought a bungalow in a gated community for around 40 lakhs in 2003. At the height of the boom it was valued at 1.2 crore.
In the 97 crash, I think property values fell by as much as 30% in Singapore.
Are the values likely to fall by more than 30% in India this time?
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