ani_meher

Good post wiseman. Though I do not agree completely to all the negative direction, I applaud your efforts and passion towards the topic. Thanks for the contribution, it was a good read

A wise man (not wiseman the user!) once told me how to identify a bubble. The peak is near when people start to justify the already sky rocketed prices.

jadhav_ravi

While all NRIs are so sure of bubble and waiting in sidelines, the RE market in India just chugs ahead.

Keep talking of NPAs, corruption, infrastructure, bubble, FDI, FII, bad debt, restructuring, double triple quadruple dips, FED, Bernanke, Buffet, Recession, Depression, QE, Dow, ... while the odd new graduate who came from village gets his job, buys a new flat in Mumbai and moves on. He can afford 30L so they price it at 30L in remote suburbs. The 5000-10000 flats worth 1C+ have enough takers in Mumbai. So life just goes on.


There is no replacement for experience. Keeping aside all text-book economists, ask any Mumbaikar and they will tell you what will happen if you keep thinking of bubble and wait on the sidelines: the price will just go up!

MANOJa

Very well woven together. Great piece of writing.

tubaibabu

What a piece of writing ???
The present day economic crisis all about this misplaced belief that price increases all the time even it has no rational reason behind. The whole world has learn that every bubbles bust one day but unfortunately nither you nor Mr. Jadhav ravi has learnt a lesson.
But the days are not far, the RE bubble is going to bust very soon. Hope nither you nor Mr. Jadhav ravi have invested havily in Mumbai RE.

jadhav_ravi

Wishful thinking!
When everything tanks, Mumbai RE will tank.
Till then just keep wishing.

"The present day economic crisis" Which crisis are you talking of??
"The whole world has learn that every bubbles bust one day" Justify that it is a bubble first. That way : Is Stock market at 18K also a bubble?? Are salaries of 15-20L per annum for middle-level manager also a bubble? Are all onsite/NRI guys earning US salaries a bubble? Is 100% growth in Tata Motors profit a bubble?

MANOJa

I think u r one of the guys who had a misadventure in the last bubble burst.

This is a forum, where everybody is free to give an opinion, as long as it is not biased or influenced by some external forces.

Two people can always have different views , but there r better ways to express disagreements.

Thanks

jadhav_ravi

And if you are so worried about the bubble Mr Tubai, then why do you claim to have booked in Noida? Noida is speculator's heaven.

sreekys

Hey tubai...have been seeing ur posts...i dont know why u are being so personal and acrimonious in your comments. This is not just in this post but almost every other post written by you. Most of us are present in this forum because we are looking to invest in RE. If you see so much of doom and problems in this sector and are not really looking to invest am not sure why you are hanging out here for so long! It is absolutely OK to be negative about the scope of RE and everyone worth their salt knows that prices have been going through the roof. If you cannot afford a home dont think that others in this forum are crorepatis and are able to do so very easily. Am sure am going to get yet another nasty and personal reply to this but someone has to bell the cat! Nothing personal.. just take my advise as a responsible forum members comments.

tubaibabu

I am extremly sorry if my reply has hurt anybody. My intension was not to hurt anybody but to say what i believe.
Recently in a artical in Indian express it has been reported that 96.3 million Sq.ft of residental area in proper mumbai is being unsold till end of June 2010.This was nearly twice of what was two years ago. Thus the situation is very disturbing from a investor perspective.
It is best that such indicators are not ignored so that we are too late to stop the bubble from busting.
As a investor i have sold my stake more that six months back and waiting for right oprtunity to enter the market and feel that this is not the time to enter the market.

jadhav_ravi

First thing first: The data is not accurate.
In June 2008, total unsold residential space in MMR was 58.9 million sq. ft.
In June 2010, total unsold residential space in MMR was 96.3 million sq. ft.

So it is NOT nearly twice. It is 60% more!!

Second point it is not just Mumbai, it is MMR (Mumbai, Navi Mumbai, Thane, Kalyan, Dombivali).

Third point: 96.3 msf corresponds to 80,000 homes.
According to MCHI, there is an immediate demand for 1.4 million flats in MMR region. Even if 10% of the aspirants make it to the property ladder then there is enough demand.
You have to take into account that Mumbai has a population of more than 2 crores (20 million). Even if the prices fall slightly there are thousands of people waiting on the sidelines to jump in.