vicky6

UP Election 2012 likely to throw up a coalition govt

UP Opinion Poll Snap shots are now out for 2012 election


1) SP & BSP neck & neck (25% each) in vote percentages.
2) BJP (18%) & Cong (16%) locked in battle for no 3 & 4 spot.
(Source Twitter feeds from Headlines Today’s Anchor Ranjit Kanwal https://twitter.com/rahulkanwal)

Other Highlights
*sample size 6000+. Poll conducted in mid-November in 30 Lok Sabha constituencies in UP by ORG.
*61% think Rahul Gandhi's visits to Dalit homes is a 'Political Stunt.' 88% say they will vote for competence not caste
*Thumbs down to Maya's plan to split UP. 70% don't want UP split. 74% disapprove huge expenditure on parks & statues.
*2/3 respondents favour change in Govt in UP. 1/3 feel corruption is biggest failure of Maya Govt. Maya fares better on law & development.
*Mulayam most popular CM candidate with 31% approval. Mayawati 2nd at 29%. Rajnath 3rd at 19%. Rahul 4th at 15%

2007 UP Election Results

BSP 206 seats (30% votes)
Samajwadi Party 97 seats (25% votes)
BJP 51 seats ( 17% votes)
Congress 22 seats

Question 1)
Which of the following coalition looks most feasible post 2012 results
1) BSP + BJP (How much feasible given both hate each other quite Well)
2) SP +Cong+ (could be a possibility as both have worked together)

Question 2)
Which builder and projects would get impacted in Noida area if non-BSP combo comes in power (both : positive impact on projects like Airport and negative impact due to enquiry on land allotment in recent years).


The fears of 2002 could be back when Mulayam Yadav merged Noida/GNoida with Ghaziabad and stopped many Noida infra projects. Please comment

dhinchik

Difficult to say which party will come as all of them are worse.
Q1) Personally i prefer BSP + BJP. Congress I do not like anymore 'cos of leadership issue and flattering culture..

Q2) 3C, Logix, Jaypee, SuperTech, Amrapali --> These are big fishes and will have to align with new govt. New govt can take some pie of their bigger share than smaller builders. Small builders ka to waise hee juice nikal rakha hoga .....

Infra projects can have impact in terms of no development for flyovers or underpasses or Metro etc... But the residential projects should have no impact....I do not see any reason why MSY will stop any of these projects except some delay for above mentioned big fishes..

ThePunjabi

RG has repeatedly said that Congress will be part of ruling coalition. Basically he has staked his reputation (or whatever he has in name of reputation) on bringing Congress back to power in UP in whatever way.

So BSP + Congress is also possible.

Congress will share power and in return will offer to keep all court cases against BMW in cold storage. They have kept cases against MSY in cold storage for so many years and in return SP has supported UPA in centre one way or another.

dhinchik

Very right punjabi bro.
BMW's assets case is still in progress... and that can be bargain....

Agastya07

The possibilty is SP+ Congress goverment and Akhilesh yadav s/o MSY will be the CM. Both BJP and BSP MLA will break their prties and will join SP in long term.

ajayaoc

I still feel bMW may still manage to hold on to reins. Her vote bank does not get influenced by media or corruption issues. Whle corruption is common thread running through the DNA almost all politicians other factors wil. Have to be compared. BMW scores better then all other possible chief ministrial candidates.

ppsharma

UP is so big, diverse and complex, that no one can call out UP elections, last time they all ate crow. Even this time, no one can predict, it's split wide open, anything can happen.

Having said that, if I have to bet my money, my call would be:
1) No party to get majority.
2) BSP may still emerge no.1 partybut no where near majority. No. 4 should be congress. Can call between BJP and SP as to aho will emerge No. 2 and 3

If the above happens, following are the possibilities:
1) Maya forms the govt, aided by defections and horsetrading. This has happened many times in last 30 years in UP.
2) Congress becomes a junior partner in UP with Maya as CM. This is best case for Noida/GN/YEW as you may start seeing center cooperating with UP.

saurabh2011

I think the chances of SP+Alliance (Cong or BJP) is very strong this time.... Go to any part of UP other than Noida/GZB and then feel that how population is against to BSP & BMW.... ask to any group of persons and mostly say BSP spending not a single penny in their city.

Noida / GZB is very small part of UP and Mayawati did most of her new Infra or New Metro Line or Other Public related work only in these 2 Cities (and mostly in NOIDA)..... during last 5 years she has negative wave in UP other than Noida/GZB for sure.




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Agastya07

You are bang on target. This time BJP is also going to loose their strong vote bank in favour SP. For clue They are the most suferer in Mayawati rule.

harpreetsg_delhi

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