realacres

Liked the story wiseman. Btw, when do you think the market will bottom out? Personally, I can't give dates but yes it will be faster due to poor monsoons & it's ill effects on the economy.

Btw, Pune has got 30% water cut from now on due to poor monsoons.

andy1110

RE prices were just beginning to go up in the last 2 months...when the following happened in the last week...
H1 N1, no house tax benefits from 2011, PMC cutting water in the monsoon (for the whole year, looks like now), .... Add Recession with high interest rates.. Do'nt see even one postive factor that would cause prices to climb furthur..
Can you think of any (except human greed/fear)?

wiseman

Folks,

Wouldn't we all like to know what will happen tomorrow so that we can take advantage of it and secure our lives a little better?! Why do you think astrology, palmistry, numerology and similar areas of knowledge are doing such roaring business in India.

Similarly, from ancient times, Indian philosophy has it that the world (basically time or kaal) goes in cycles (please note I said cycles and not circles). Cycles need not be the exact same, but are likely to be similar.

Some people have also noticed that these cycles follow an important mathematical sequence - the Fibonacci series named after Loenardo of Pisa who brought it out in 1202 ad; for those of you who pride themselves on the fact that for every discovery in the West there is an equivalent Indian discovery that dates much further back, this numerical series seems to have been stated by Pingala in the 4th century BC; Pingala incidentally was reputedly the younger brother of Panini, the great gramarian who laid out the grammer of classical Sanskrit and who also strangely met his end when he was attacked and killed by a tiger (who knows!).

Anyways, coming back to the topic, many things in nature seem to follow the Fibonacci series. This is exploited by chartists (charts can be in any market, not only stocks) who also have systems that follow cycles, one of the more famous being the Eliott Wave Theory. What these try to forecast is not only the target level but also the likely timeframe using their systems.

While none of this is perfect, using charts as well as fundamental data of the major economies of the world, some of these experts suggest that we might only see the bottom in the West between 2010 and 2012. India, being better managed, might see it a little ahead of that, maybe in 2010 itself.

We will definitely know the bottoms has occurred when we see 3 - 6 months of consistently increasing sale volumes along with slowly increasing prices, which denotes the willingness of buyers to take on increasing risks. In any case, there is unlikely to be a runaway increase in prices as bull markets in RE take around 10 years to develop (the crash of 1995 saw prices recover to that level only in early 2005).

One of the things chartists also believe is that, for reasons unknown to man, prices follow cyclic pattern. Subsequently, humans bring up observations in the world around us to justify and rationalise the trend.

For example, I have been stating for a short while that, after one more (possibly) sharp rally, the stock markets will stage a major drop and may even go near previous bottoms of 8000 on the Sensx (BigBear will vouch for that). This is what the charts foretell. If this trend happens, post that, we will justify it by saying Swine Flu, Drought (and many other reasons which will become apparent then) will then be shown as the reasons for the fall.

Don't blame me. I'm just telling you what little I know, have observed and would like to believe!!!

Sorry for boring you all with this long, rambling post

I believe Andy too has been answered in this post.

cheers

wiseman

Sorry, Deepak. I do not contribute on any other site regularly other than this forum!

cheers

realacres

The current RE prices:-

DLF earlier had reduced the prices of it's Bangalore & Chennai properties to INR 2200/sq ft. They now have been further reduced to INR 1850/sq ft.
Similarly, in Mumbai HDIL was selling it's project for INR 12000/sq ft, which was then reduced to INR 10000/sq ft & now stands at INR 7800/sq ft!
Few builders in Mumbai have started 'Inventory Clearance Sale' this week, (yes this is what they are officially advertising) & have reduced the prices by whopping 40% flat.

The above e.g.s clearly shows that Mumbai which has land scarcity has reduced prices so has other tier1 & tier2 cities like Chennai & Bangalore too.
Hence, I see no reason why Pune RE prices can't erode further sharply.
Pune RE will crash & crash hard. The above e.g.s simply illustrate the same.

vyerth

Hi,
Would like to know which builders of Mumbai have started Clearance sale, except royal palms. Which I thought was fake. There was nothing for possession as they advertised and promised flat for possession in 2012.

would be good to know where is the price dropping in Mumbai... cant find any drop in Andheri (W). thats where I would love to get into.

thanks.

realacres

Pune RE Crash:-

As e.g to above news, here are some reduced RE rates:-

Beverly Hills:- Rs.3500/sq ft to Rs.2600/sq ft,

Paranjape Saptgiri:- Rs.4000/sq ft to Rs.3000/sq ft,

Gera Regents Park:- Rs.3700/sq ft to Rs.2850/sq ft

Concord Portia:- Rs.3250/sq ft to Rs.2650/sq ft,

MV Tropez:- Rs.3199/sq ft to Rs.2200/sq ft

Mirchandani Palms:- Rs.3500/sq ft to Rs.2650/sq ft,

Crossover County:- Rs.3600/sq ft to Rs.2950/sq ft,

S3:- Rs.3000/sq ft to Rs.2150/sq ft,

Parkstreet (Sapphire Park):-Rs.3200/sq ft to Rs.2600/sq ft (can be bought down further if you book in under-cons wing),

Kapil Abhijat:- Rs.7000/sq ft to Rs.4800/sq ft,

Felicita:- Rs.4251/sq ft to Rs.3000/sq ft,

Add to it the townships,

Magarpatta:- Rs.3800/sq ft to Rs.3200/sq ft (resales INR 2600/sq ft),

Nanded City:- Rs.3700/sq ft to Rs.2500/sq ft.

The further downfall of RE prices will continue. Better wait & see the fun.

aviraj

ParkStreet (Saphire park) is quoting 3000psqft as of yesterday. I dont know from where you got the figure of 2600. Seems they only have 3bhk's left in that phase

Sansei

Hi Avi,

Real mans quotes seem to the lowest generally for any projects.

Found out to be true in the cases i have checked/deduced.

Sansei

Hi friends,

Going fwd me thinks:

The push for flats has slakened due

the certainity of Tax benefits vapourising in near future.

The election season coming to an end, so one has to wait for goodies till
next time and be ready for price + int rate rise to sky.

Excess inventory build up.

I have advanced my flat purchase and am willing to wait longer.
OR looking for more central places.

Expecting investors to start coming to mkt in larger no.s