punemeinghar

yeah but i hope this really brings back those nut-heads back to ground who are quoting prices sky-high

temper

Flats worth over Rs 1-lakh crore unsold in Mumbai: Report - The Economic Times



MUMBAI: Residential property market in Mumbai has stagnated pushing unsold inventory in the city to 80,000 units valued at Rs 1,05,000 crore, as buyers have kept away from the market in anticipation of an imminent drop in prices in the near future, said a Knight Frank India report.

Absorption numbers in 2011-12 are estimated to have dropped in Mumbai residential market by more than 60% from its 2007 heydays and 35% from 2010-11 to an estimated 45,000 units, showed the research conducted by the property consultant. The absorption level of 45,000 units in the Mumbai Metropolitan Region during 2011-12 is well below the market average of 70,000 to 80,000 units annually.

South and central Mumbai, which only offer products at the premium end of the residential price band, are experiencing the highest vacancy levels, the report said. "This steep drop in absorption levels should have resulted in a similar correction in prices. However, a regulator-imposed supply crunch through delay in approvals ensured that market equilibrium was maintained," said the report.

Around 55,000 units were launched in FY12, down almost 40% from the 92,000 units launched during 2010-11. Supply has also been constrained during 2011-2012 as developers have been actively delaying project launches and looking to liquidate current inventory before launching any fresh product, to ease pressure on prices.

Developers are under pressure to deleverage their positions in the backdrop of continuously mounting debts with the market offering little respite. The total debt position of five major Mumbaibased developers stood at Rs 6,200 crore as on March 2012, while they are holding on to a total unsold inventory of Rs 14,300 crore -14 % of the total MMR market.

Knight Frank believes that a price correction in Mumbai residential market is warranted in the medium term. It expects the rise in interest costs for the realty sector by 37% from a year ago in 2011-12 and decline in net profits by 28% for the same period may compel developers to lighten their inventory load and deleverage their balance sheets.

mangopeople

Spanish industrial production fell for the ninth month in May as the recession in the euro area’s fourth-largest economy worsened amid rising borrowing costs.
Output at factories, refineries and mines adjusted for the number of working days fell 6.1 percent from a year earlier, after an 8.3 percent decline in April, the National Statistics Institute in Madrid said today in an e-mailed statement. That is less than the median forecast for an 8.1 percent contraction in a Bloomberg survey of seven economists.
Spain’s recession probably intensified in the second quarter as the European sovereign debt crisis worsened, the Bank of Spain said on June 27. Acerinox SA, Spain’s largest steelmaker, is laying off workers for as many as 15 days per month at the Ponferrada plant of its Roldan SA unit.
Amper SA, which makes telecommunications equipment, said on June 29 it would lay off 220 employees.
As the government’s access to financial markets narrows, Spain is negotiating the terms of a 100 billion-euro ($125 billion) European bailout for its banks. The yield on Spain’s 10-year benchmark bond was little higher at 6.86 percent at 8:52 a.m. in Madrid, compared with a euro-era intraday high of 7.285 percent on June 18.
The government predicts domestic demand, including spending by public administrations, will shrink 3.1 percent in 2012, more than four times last year’s rate, as close to a quarter of the workforce is jobless. Exports, which the government forecast would drive the recovery, dropped in April for the first time since 2009.

compuwalah

So looking back , we think this was a year of recession ? If so what impact it had on RE prices.

PointOfView

this year had a lot of effect on RE prices in Pune. Rates for properties; under construction, ready possession and resales; all went up

compuwalah

From this old psot of Jul 2010 (2.5 years old)
What would have happened to people who followed this advice
Just check the rate of rise in 2011 and 2012.
This rather proved to be the last great chance to buy prop.
Think classis case of gloom piling on gloom effect. One negetive post and other piles on it making it look real.

From this post of Jul 2010 (2.5 years old),
what is your opinion frugy. Day trading is gr8 stuff to make tonnes of money ?
What does Rogoff etc do these days ? what homework what man ?
Is self reflection is out of fashion lately (ok leave aside Venkytalks)

From this post of Jun 2010 (2.5 years old)
As I predicted, the thread proved to be a canvas to paint gloomy picture and one can see where we stand at end of 2012.
From this post of Jul 2010 (2.5 years old),
Good one nitesh. Actually bears got bit cautious in 2010 as Diwali and Holi seemed to arrive faster than expected (predictions made in 2009) busting the prediction.
So this time they went long (2.5 years ahead prediction). Chances are that people will forget by that time .
But there are some sticky guys like compu who do not have anythign better to do than just pop up at the time when the
expiry date of a prediction is arriving.
This time bears need to take bit longer time window.
Guys I propose 2019 ... subject to approval of others of course.

From this post of Jul 2010 (2.5 years old),
you know not man frugy must have found way to stay in demat form (like ghosts etc). So no need of house etc. Only internet connection is enuf.
btw some words of wisdom do shower occasionally on this forum.
From this post of Jul 2010 (2.5 years old),
boss this was best time to invest. oh wait. you are saying the same thing. sorry. reacted bit early.
Wait. Why title of thread and content are all flip flopping in view.
Oh. That was some sarcasm in action. Good try though.
Man tell you this was a great contribution in making the thread confusing in addition to makign it gloomy.
From this post of Jul 2010 (2.5 years old),
Believe me. I tried hard to connect this to RE scenario but my limited intelligence fails me.
But since you have written it, must have some deeper meaning which we will understand some day.
From this post of Oct 2010 (2.25 years old),
wonder if we shuld focus on what years have taught us intead of days (macro vs micro).
Else we will be penny wise pound foolish.
From this post of Oct 2010 (2.25 years old),
saam tv guys. There are some good astrologers/mystics etc that could help you with nightmares and its effects. Maybe take mayan guys also with you. Just kidding.
hurricane ? What talk you.


There are more stuff on page 9 of this thread, which is getting overwhelming now.Please read for yourself,.
Some graphs etc , I am scared. graphophobia you know.

From this post of Oct 2010 (2.25 years old),
ha ha good one. Oh. talking to self. ok . I will also go to saam tv :-)
This thread is a sea of wisdom my friends and one need to go through it himself to learn from it.
Not that content therein are the wisdom. But when you rub the contents against the reality (like flintstones), you get the fire/light of knowledge.
I know its a irony or creating light out of darkness but that is the world mor amigoes.
and that was closing thread for 2012 (unless I find more hidden gems in the sea) and we can put the 2012 predictions to closure.

hellrazed

Ok Compuwalah, you made your point. Now can you please stop opening all the old threads.
Thanks.

compuwalah

Once again I will tell the same. Since these theads are relevant for 2012 doomzday predictions, its very valid to open and analyse them at the end of 2012. If someone wants to stick his head in sand and decided not to learn from past, he is welcome to ignore these posts. Please subscribe and read posts like China economy down, Bantander bank issue, Italy not doing well, Phillipine pulling all cal center job (if all that makes you happy) .... and appreciate all the creativity of collecting all possible bad news from umpteen avenues.

and if you see the reason my post to "make point" , it would be a pity. If purpose was to make my point, I could rake twenty odd articles from web supporting some view and then added my twist of pseudo expertise to it. But rather for all the threads I have waited till the expiry of such and just pointed to the facts.

kumarm77

This post of revisiting the predictions for 2012 is quite thought provoking and appropriate , now that new year 2013 is here with a bang . This will certainly assist forum members to make informed decisions. May be start prediction for 2014 so that people can be guided on their investments for 2013 Cheers

punerebuyer

Would you like to give some predictions of your own? But not like "I told you so" but instead based on some data/trends (not past trends)/insider info etc?

I agree that most of the predictions came wrong but I think it is simply because the forum members here could not have a good judgement on either how deep builder pockets are or how they are connected to politician ruling class itself.

Day by day, we are getting news on how rules are getting bent for political re investment (NCP, vadera, gadkari, lalu, mayawati, and many more). It just indicates that there are far too larger interest involved hence the realism is out of question.

Now in this situation, one can try riding the rising tide not knowing how much it is going to rise or stay cautious with their money. The choice is individual.

Please make some predictions using any economical model, information, or anything for that matter and we can open that post at the end of 2013 for analysis. What say?