vatsalbajpai

Aaaram se badaya tha rupee ko..aaram se girayenge...tension mat lo yaar ..bas mere liye single malt tayaar rakho.

wiseman

We will see 53 again. So why worry?

cheers

dnkumar

And that will add to Gold pricing in india Anyways so that is one more reason to move to gold!!

amit001

Wisey - I hope u are correct in this..

I have just got my bonus and now there are calls all around for 47.

So I was getting nervous looking at the opportunity loss (fall from 53 to 47)

Even at the last time it was 53, I remitted only half of the surplus, as I thought it may got to 55/56

amit001

Any idea why Unitech is up 11%

amit001

12% up now

I could not spot nay other reason for this major rise except that open potions are being added in Futures for the stock

Venkytalks

Two problems with this thought

1. If Rupee doesnt depreciate - and it might not - then your gold investment gets flushed

2. If Rupee depreciates against dollar, then it might be similar to 2011 end - when gold fell in dollars but stayed steady at about 27000 levels in Rupee. Again, ssame might happen - again gold gets flushed.

You should invest in gold if you think USD will depreciate - and only that. Buying Rupee gold only gives you extra time to sell when USD appreciates (the dollar trade can happen and you can see it and sell your Rupee gold without being affected by a sudden whipsaw.

Right now, Rupee appreciating against USD while Euro-USD is steady - this tells me Rupee is really strong and with even 6 billion inflow, can reverse such horrendous levels of depreciation also.

Best not to bet against the Rupee. YOu can buy gold when Rupee rises to 44 or 43 levels, assuming some reversion to mean.

But with this inflow, you need to be in stocks and not gold or RE. Already stocks have given best returns in 1 month and might give even more

__________________
Venky

Sharpj

Hmmm silence.. Does this means the market keeps going up for today too.. I see this thread very active when markets are wobbly..

Stock q.. Is it good to exit ABB now? It seems to be out of its bearish trend..

amitgupta00

Actually it is time to sell and sleep on the markets.
you can sell ABB to the tune of 40-50% of your portfolio,hell if i would have been you i would have sold all of mine if at a profit.
Gather the cash while waiting for the fall.

wiseman

I have come to realise that, no matter how extreme the perceived circumstances, charts tell a very good story and following them provides people a great chance to make returns well above average. Why? ...

Well, a couple of months ago, I noticed a pattern developing in the MACD and Stochastics on the longer term chart from 2010 till date.

While each time the markets fell significantly, so long as the indicators formed lower bottoms along with the Index, downtrend remained intact and one coule expect even lower botoms.

But the last time market formed a lower bottom (4531) the indicators formed a significantly higher bottom. In the accompanying chart (from Diwali peak of 2010), the Black lines depict lower tops and bottoms in Index as well as indicators. But during the last fall ending december 2011, the red lines show that, while index fell lower, indicators formed higher bottom.

I figured from past such observations over the years, that this time around we might just have a higher top in the next rally.

Remember that this was a revolutionary outlook just a couple of months ago when everyone (including me) was talking 4000, 3600, etc. Suggesting not only will there me a rally, but it will also go above previous high of 5100/5400 would have people thinking I was mad.

Well, thats exactly what happened. Reminds me once again to leep focus on the charts and keep confusing chatter away from disrupting it.

WHAT COMES NEXT?

While charts indicate that we may have gotten out of the falling channel, we might NOT have gotten into a new bull phase as most analysts would like us to believe. Reasons?

First, most stocks are trading at the lower end of their price bands (Hi/Lo). Second, the real economy is in absolute doldrums here and much worse in the US, Europe, Japan, etc. We have never been closer to disruptive collapse as we are today.

While Govts and Central Banks are getting frantic papering over the critical problems with manipulated statistics through completely controlled MSM (Main Stream Media), the raw data coming out of US and China shows we may be very close to some major down moves.

Gasoline usage in the US has suddenly crashed in Dec by 47%!!! Electricity usage in China has suddenly crashed in Dec by over 30%!!! The Shipping Indices are hitting multi-decade bottoms and anecdotal news talks about cargo being shipped where the shipper is paying the customer to get ships to better locations!!!

So, there is a very good chance that this trend change may be shortlived and we may yet turn back and plumb lower lows.

I believe that, after a short fall (maybe to 5200 levels and a recovery back to 5400 or even 5550 levels, markets will suddenly realise the actual position of the real economy and reality will return again!

cheers

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