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IREF® - Indian Real Estate Forum > Real Estate in India > Real Estate Greater Noida > Bubble Burst of Reality Sector in NCR (Noida, G.Noida, YEW, GZB) !!
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Old October 29 2012, 09:53 AM   #1
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Default Bubble Burst of Reality Sector in NCR (Noida, G.Noida, YEW, GZB) !!

Hi,

I like to start this thread to discuss about realty sector situation in NCR especially in Noida, GNoida, YERDA, and GZB.

There is very straight relation between price inflation based upon demand & supply. We all aware that there are Lacs of dwelling units available or will available in these regions in coming 0-5 years.

The wave of buyers (most of), who wished to invest or buy first house has already invested in these areas. And reason was simple location & price as per individual requirement.

It is my assumption that there is a major difference between demand and supply now; supply is much more than demand.

It will lead to hollowness in buying waves for next few years until new set of people will migrate to these areas due to job etc. [One thing we need to understand that these areas’ investor is not a localite, most of them are migrated in these cities within 0-10 years because of jobs etc]

What will happen when supply is much higher than demand? [available / planned dwelling units units are much higher than demand today itself].
• Bubble will burst and price will come down or appreciation will steady
• Builders will cartel and increase prices
Price escalation cannot go very much far just because of this. It will burst sooner or later.
[Re-sale price is less than builder price now days in Noida area]

Areas:
Greater Noida – Old sectors around Pari Chowk
Greater Noida – New Area (GNoida West / Noida exten)
Greate Noida – around Dadari (Anasal’s project etc)
GZB – Raj Nagar Exten, NH-24 (e.g. Crossing republic, ,Wave)
Faridabad – Nahar Par
YERDA-
Gurgaon – Sohna road, Dwarka Expressway


Lets’ discuss on this. Keep sharing your opinion.


Regards,

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Old October 29 2012, 10:11 AM   #2
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This is definitely correct. In the coming 5 years, most of the underconnstruction projects will be ready for occupying. But the buyers most of these flats are not the actual people who want to live in there, but they bought it for sheer investment purpose. Thus after 5 years, there would be a a lot and lot of ready to move flats available in Noida, GN , Ghaziabad, YEW. Even still we can see more project launches but due to missing actual inhabitants, the supply of RTM flats is going to go too high and that will definitely lead to price downfall or the stagnation of prices for a lot of time.
 
Old October 29 2012, 10:53 AM   #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rohitgrayc View Post
This is definitely correct. In the coming 5 years, most of the underconnstruction projects will be ready for occupying. But the buyers most of these flats are not the actual people who want to live in there, but they bought it for sheer investment purpose. Thus after 5 years, there would be a a lot and lot of ready to move flats available in Noida, GN , Ghaziabad, YEW. Even still we can see more project launches but due to missing actual inhabitants, the supply of RTM flats is going to go too high and that will definitely lead to price downfall or the stagnation of prices for a lot of time.
downfall unlikely boss.. indians have lot of holding power and hence prices never come down

but yes stagnation may be there definitely
 
Old October 29 2012, 11:16 AM   #4
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I think Rates will not decrease due to this real HUGE oversupply..... but there are full chances that Society Flats will have Stagnation in Price at Current LEVEL in RESALE Transactions in 2013.

Even if we analyze the Resale Rates Increase in % in year 2011 (Jan-2011 / Dec-2011 there is around 25%-30% appreciation) and then if we compare it with Resale Rates Increase in % in year 2012 (maximum 8-10% increase in 10 months in 95% societies) then it shows that appreciation in % in Resale Rates is on Downward side from 30% to 10% in almost same time frame... So we can think of Stagnation in Resale Rates at current level in year 2013 or maximum 8-10% increase as 2012...

LET US SEE What happen Actually.... BTW No one can predict RE Perfectly.
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Old October 29 2012, 11:28 AM   #5
 
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Originally Posted by saurabh2011 View Post
I think Rates will not decrease due to this real HUGE oversupply..... but there are full chances that Society Flats will have Stagnation in Price at Current LEVEL in RESALE Transactions in 2013.

Even if we analyze the Resale Rates Increase in % in year 2011 (Jan-2011 / Dec-2011 there is around 25%-30% appreciation) and then if we compare it with Resale Rates Increase in % in year 2012 (maximum 8-10% increase in 10 months in 95% societies) then it shows that appreciation in % in Resale Rates is on Downward side from 30% to 10% in almost same time frame... So we can think of Stagnation in Resale Rates at current level in year 2013 or maximum 8-10% increase as 2012...

LET US SEE What happen Actually.... BTW No one can predict RE Perfectly.


All data is on general basis ,thereare people who got no appreciation in last 3 years,some got 25% compounded in last 3 years and will get same in next 2 years.
 
Old October 29 2012, 11:50 AM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by saurabh2011 View Post
I think Rates will not decrease due to this real HUGE oversupply..... but there are full chances that Society Flats will have Stagnation in Price at Current LEVEL in RESALE Transactions in 2013.

Even if we analyze the Resale Rates Increase in % in year 2011 (Jan-2011 / Dec-2011 there is around 25%-30% appreciation) and then if we compare it with Resale Rates Increase in % in year 2012 (maximum 8-10% increase in 10 months in 95% societies) then it shows that appreciation in % in Resale Rates is on Downward side from 30% to 10% in almost same time frame... So we can think of Stagnation in Resale Rates at current level in year 2013 or maximum 8-10% increase as 2012...

LET US SEE What happen Actually.... BTW No one can predict RE Perfectly.
saurabh bhai what are your views abt NE in 2-3 yrs time .. can it really cross 4000 rates ?
 
Old October 29 2012, 11:53 AM   #7
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saurabh bhai what are your views abt NE in 2-3 yrs time .. can it really cross 4000 rates ?
Yes...
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Old October 29 2012, 12:03 PM   #8
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Yes...
wah ... phir toh yaar abhi bhi 3000 ke aas paas bhi its not a bad buy
 
Old October 29 2012, 12:44 PM   #9
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There are various points to calculate the appreciation even in same area. No one can generalize the growth rate among all projects or land sale. The biggest point of consideration is that land price has never come down in long run and will keep increasing in future too. Flat prices will not increase in same ratio but again, in long run, it will also not decrease. It may get stagnant for some time. People who have holding power, will hold for longer. The simple demand-supply rule never worked in India because in reality, demand is and will always be much-much higher compare to supply because of huge population.
The deciding factor for Indian peoples is cost of flat/houses which they can afford. For some it is 15 lacks and for some it is 15 crores. If dealings are in middle class reach, no project can remain unsold in India. If person has adequate patience, property is and will be always one of the best investments in India (not only in NCR).
Examples are very visible: See new Rohini sectors (28, 30 etc), no one is there to live, no roads, no electricity, only yellow DDA flats of few sqr meters with bare walls and price range is more than 50 lacks. See the GN(W) aka Noida Extension - Many projects have not even started digging and price has already crossed 3000/sqft. See Sohna road/Dwarka expway - prices are soaring to 5000+/sqft. See GN main, land rates are more than 50K+/sqm in many sectors. Best example is YEW -- its just barren land, farmer issue, HC/SC cases and rates are 30K in some projects.
Where is the bubble???
 
Old October 29 2012, 01:13 PM   #10
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Default Property Appreciation

It depends on will of authority and UP government to large extent.

Due to its proximity with Delhi, and large talent pool, Noida/Greater Noida have the ability to make UP the biggest service sector in the country especially in IT and KPO.

Many businesses are interested in shifting to Noida, and one can expect a huge flow of salaried class to move and set up base here.

Also any investment appreciation for a real estate is also a factor of proximity to leading landmarks, office space, and standard of living like open spaces, facilities it provides.

Personally I am not that buoyant about Greater Noida (W), but feel that properties on Noida Expressway, Chi V (Greater Noida), near knowledge Park have a good chance of good appreciation.
 
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