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IREF® - Indian Real Estate Forum > Real Estate in India > Real Estate Gurgaon > Will Gurgaon Property Rates go down by 30-40%?
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Old March 30 2012, 04:16 AM   #121
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Originally Posted by monkatheart1 View Post
Average salary of an IT professional in Gurgaon area is around 18 lacs / annum ( with an average experience of say 15 years). There could be extremes but I am saying this keeping in view the Big companies.

Now, deduct 30% tax straight away. And your take home is mere 12.6 lacs / annum. That is like roughly 1 lac/ month.

Presuming a savings potential of a household with at least 3 dependents, 2 kids in school and wife. - is about 30% to 40% based on your lifestyle. So , you save what ? 35 K / month ? Say 50 K/ mo. That is 4 to 6 lacs per annum. .

That alone should scare the hell out of most people looking at the pricing. Logic may not work in RE to some extent. That is, when the earning to capital investment ratio is a meaningful fraction. But now, its way beyond.

Those people who earn say 5 lacs / mo , obviously this rule is not applicable. They are in a different league all together ( rub shoulders with Kalmadi and Mallya ..ha ha ).


monkatheart jee

I always respect intellect and logic and you seem to have both aplenty but I'd like to take a somewhat contrarion call. Please hear me why:-

1) Whatever you have said with respect to salary is correct but then if we go by similar logic, on a city like delhi, how goes does your analysis work. An average person working in delhi earns lesser than his peers in gurgaon. Even if we take the his salary to be same, with his meagre earnings can he afford a house in delhi? Most certainly, No sir!!
And if we consider the prices in delhi they are multiple times that of gurgaon. Thats one reason I think ur argument falls flatly on its face.

2) Why havent you factored in traders. Traders of all kinds earn vast sums of money. There are thousands of traders in NCR who do all sorts of work like being major vendors of vegetables, auto spare parts, small time hoteliers, rubber products makers, dairy owners and pardon the profanity.. high end pimps ( the ones you see advertising in newspapers)... where does all the money they earn go.. trust me, majority of the big-ticket investors who book 15--20 flats or 8--10 plots at one launch.. people who are one step below the underwriters and several steps above people like you and me.. people who have never rubbed shoulders with even mallaya or kalmadi's P.A ..and people who are seldom seen or heard at IREF coz they lack the time, the energy, the interest and the vocabulary to be here... are nothing but the ones who have the might to buy and leave such apartments till the price appreciates. These arent the kinda people who'd flinch even a muscle if their property declines. Infact, they'd go out in search for some bottom fishing. These are the people( or their smaller versions who earn legitimate money but make it illegitimate to avoid paying taxes) who buy/sell most property in delhi.. ye log gurgaon ko aise kaise girne denge. Gurgaon will compete with delhi tomorrow.. it has already started competing... so trust prices to be along the lines of delhi. I can understand that like me, you're a salaried person as well and thus, the analysis. What I wanted to tell you is that no analysis is exhaustive until it includes all sorts of people in a certain demographic and gives each sample person the importance it deserves. Uss hisaab se these people hold roughly,60-70% importance.

3) RE or any market never performs on fundamentals. I agree that Gurgaon RE ke fundamentals theek nahi hain... But if you see history, any secular bull market, irrespective of whether its stocks, currency, bullion, commodity or RE, never performs on fundamentals alone. The keyword here is sentiment and the only thing this thread is trying to do is spoil the sentiment. What people do not understand is that no matter how many "views" u see on a thread here, the people who decide the sentiment of the market are probably guys who havent even heard of IREF.

This is my humble opinion, I completely see the point in your argument,Hope you somewhat see it in mine too

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Old March 30 2012, 04:57 AM   #122
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Originally Posted by KB_may2010 View Post
We should do protest to make new policies for Real estate sector.

1. Policy to stop black money in real sector. It will resolve many problems even government will be able to reduce excise duty and VAT from previous level.
2. UID should be mandatory for every citizen
3. Builder should not allowed to invest money in another project until his first project will not complete 50%.
4. Builder should not allowed to run payment method other than construction linked plan. ONLY CLP allowed.
5. Not allowed to buy more than 2 house for any individual. Still he can purchase 4 house. 2 house his name and 2 house in his wife name.
6.All real estate transaction should be transparent.
7. BBA should be mandatory for all property deal.
8. Floor plan, site plan and sample flat should be ready before launch
Sir
I totally agree to all your points stated above except the one I have marked in red. If all the dealings are clean and transparent then what is the problem in letting a person own more than two houses. There is no cap for buying gold, cars, phones et al then why houses.
and buying two houses in wife's name-- mere jaise kunware bacchon ka kya? Imagine proposing someone for marriage just coz u have the money to buy the house but not bharat sarkar's permission. sounds prepostorous.. doesnt it guys???
one more small query... Islam allows upto four marriages.. and we have often seen in cases such as that of movie star dharam paajee or deputy CM of haryana Chandra Mohan converting to islam to get married a second time. Does that mean that if your recommendations are accepted by the government, a person with pure white source of income and a penchant for RE will have to convert and remarry inorder to buy his fifth property and I thought my last suggestion was prepostorous.... !! well, in comparison to this one, it was butter-milked peanuts..

Aise cases headlines na bane.. isliye bhaiyya... Suggestions do!magar dhyaan se!!!


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Old March 30 2012, 08:11 AM   #123
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Default 1 in 5 gurgaon city properties lying vacant

GURGAON: On the one hand, thousands of people aspire to have a house of their own, while on the other hand, about one-fifth of houses in the city are lying vacant. According to Census 2011, more than 18% of houses in Gurgaon are neither occupied by owners nor by tenants, higher than the number of such houses in other parts of the NCR at about 15%.

By simple market rules, such a large number of vacant houses means oversupply. This, in turn, should translate into a fall in prices. But in the case of Gurgaon, the reality of realty is different. Here, the rich are buying several houses. And the fact that they don't even care for rental incomes, which run into tens of thousands of rupees per month, goes to show the kind of returns they expect on such investments.

This state of 'vacancy', which is far higher than the state average of 8.7%, is despite the fact that about one-fifth of the city's population doesn't have 'livable' houses.Neerja Sekhar, Director of state census operations, said on Wednesday that there may be many reasons for such a situation but the number of vacant houses is increasing sharply.Independent experts, however, point out that the extent of vacancy indicates what a goldmine Gurgaon's real estate is. The vacant stock simply shows profiteering at play in an era of exorbitant property prices.

"It shows that builders and investors in this market don't mind holding on to the stock in the hope that prices will go up in the near future," said Jagdeep Aatri, a property agent. The data also shows that many Gurgaonites living in other cities or working abroad prefer Gurgaon as an investment destination, which may contribute to vacant housing stock.A real estate analyst warned that many people might have invested black money into city properties.

"Such individuals don't give their property on rent as they acquire it through black money and search for 'suitable' potential buyers. In many cases salaried tenants declare the details of their house owners to authorities, which may result in tax departments catching the loopholes."If not anything else, this kind of vacancy rate creates an artificial shortage of potential leasing properties, leading to unreasonable growth in rents.In Haryana, the number of vacant houses was 2.58 lakh in 1991, 3.22 lakh in 2001 and 6.19 lakh in 2011. Around 68% of households in Haryana own a television. About one-sixth of the households own a computer, out of which just 6% have access to Internet. Around 80% households own a telephone. While one-third of them have two-wheelers, about one-tenth of the households own four-wheelers.




1 in 5 city properties lying vacant - The Times of India
 
Old March 30 2012, 08:14 AM   #124
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Sir
I totally agree to all your points stated above except the one I have marked in red. If all the dealings are clean and transparent then what is the problem in letting a person own more than two houses. There is no cap for buying gold, cars, phones et al then why houses.
and buying two houses in wife's name-- mere jaise kunware bacchon ka kya? Imagine proposing someone for marriage just coz u have the money to buy the house but not bharat sarkar's permission. sounds prepostorous.. doesnt it guys???
one more small query... Islam allows upto four marriages.. and we have often seen in cases such as that of movie star dharam paajee or deputy CM of haryana Chandra Mohan converting to islam to get married a second time. Does that mean that if your recommendations are accepted by the government, a person with pure white source of income and a penchant for RE will have to convert and remarry inorder to buy his fifth property and I thought my last suggestion was prepostorous.... !! well, in comparison to this one, it was butter-milked peanuts..

Aise cases headlines na bane.. isliye bhaiyya... Suggestions do!magar dhyaan se!!!


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Can you please provide your ideas to stop black money ???
Black money is making real estate sector unstable and it will be definitely collapse. We all should protest to stop black money at least in property deals. Due to this more than 10 lakhs houses vacant in gurgaon.
 
Old March 30 2012, 09:55 AM   #125
 
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Originally Posted by monkatheart1 View Post
liquidity bahut important cheez hoti hai. When you need money, say in recession , you cant sell RE. But you can sell Gold. Right ?

So How come RE is better than gold ? Any asset which gives you liquidity when you need money is a wise investment.

Investment is not just price increase and appreciation.

And what you said is right. ha ha .. I am anticipating RE to crash so that I can buy a home in GGN ? May be. Thank you.
life is full of risk ..
Risk lekar hi microsoft company bani , reliance , bani , wpro , arcelor , tata sabke business mein bohat sa risk involved hai .. Pr aaj woh itne bade insan hain kyuki unhone evaluated risk liya ..
imagine agar apke parents ne yahi risk lekar ek ghar khareed liya hota. Toh apke pass bi virasat mein apna ghar hota ..
Kyuki duniya yeh puchti hai bhai ke apka ghar apna hai ya nhi , gadi hai ya nhi ..
Yeh nhi puchti aap kitne holidays pr gye hai foreign ya apne kitna paisa movies dekhne mein kharch kia ya kitne ki FD kara rkhi hai ..
Risk lene se hi insan aage badtha hai ..
Risk toh jobs mein bi hai like america mein lakhon log unemployed hue recession mein toh kya yeh sochkar maa baap apne bachon ko padhana chhod dein kyuki ismein risk hai har 10 saal mein recession aajati hai ..
agar life mein aage badhna ho toh risk lene padte hain bhaiji .. Aur fir yeh toh basic zaroorat hai roti , kapda aur makaan .
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Old March 30 2012, 10:03 AM   #126
 
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Everything including the cost of land , construction daily wages have gone up due to inflation.....and one of the most important factor of inflation has been the oil prices , If govt decreases the VAT like it has happened in GOA , the price of Petrol has come down to 55 from 65 , It will make a lot of difference , SO if someone wants to do something , We should all protest against rising TAXES from Central and state govt's
bhai petrol par se tax hata dena logon ke liye sahi hai but. Just think agar india mein tax ho hi na ..
Kya aap aur mein milkr yeh metro banva sakte hain ? Yeh road banva sakte hain ?
Yeh railway network chala sakte hain ?
pani , sewage , electricity , law and order , national safety sabke liye paisa lagta hai bhai desh chalana aasan nhi ..
hum chahte hain development bi USA ki tarah ho aur . Koi tax bi na dena pade bhia pranab mukharjee ke father ki mill thodi na chal rhi hain jo pure desh ko aone paison se chalyega ..
tax system mein sudhar hona chahiye ..
But main thing abi bhi jitna paisa ata hai agar usmein corruption ko 85-90% bi hatane. Mein succesful hote hain hum toh china humare aaspass bi kahin ni hoga growth mein ..
for all your lind information logon ko lagta hai india mein hi sabse zyada taxes hain but aisa nhi USA , europe sabmein direct indirect tax milakr lagbhag itne hi hain ..
But han wahan itni corruption nhi hai ..
 
Old March 30 2012, 10:04 AM   #127
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I am sitting on the fence desperately since last three years for RE prices to decline in NCR.To my utter disgust prices have been rising every month with new launces at new heights as far as pricing is concerned.
so true, each new launch is at higher than the earlier....where is the sign of decrease...anyway waiting
 
Old March 30 2012, 10:07 AM   #128
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Originally Posted by KB_may2010 View Post
Can you please provide your ideas to stop black money ???
Black money is making real estate sector unstable and it will be definitely collapse. We all should protest to stop black money at least in property deals. Due to this more than 10 lakhs houses vacant in gurgaon.
Sir i dont know how to stop black money... I have some ideas but there is nothing that you wouldnt have heard before. I believe in self restraint. So far, in whatever dealings I have carried out in RE in my lifetime, I have never
given or recieved even a penny of black money. Bhagwaan kare aage bhi zaroorat na pade but in the past as well, I have taken a little loss ( bought at a slightly higher price) to facilitate a full white dealing.
If everyone who's serious about ending this issue and is ready to do more than lipservice tries their best ( sometimes at their own expense) to root out black from RE, the situation will become better.
I know people will start complaining about builder/broker nexus and what not and these are valid points but they themselves are ready for full black dealings when it comes to their own taxation. Main koi idea nahi dena chahta kissi ko, kyuki koi lena hi nahi chahta.

All i wanted to say with reference to your last post, if somebody has white money ...legal money..there should not be a ceiling of number of houses he can buy.

baaki, as i said i agree to and appreciate all other points that you have mentioned.
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Old March 30 2012, 11:20 AM   #129
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life is full of risk ..
Risk lekar hi microsoft company bani , reliance , bani , wpro , arcelor , tata sabke business mein bohat sa risk involved hai .. Pr aaj woh itne bade insan hain kyuki unhone evaluated risk liya ..
imagine agar apke parents ne yahi risk lekar ek ghar khareed liya hota. Toh apke pass bi virasat mein apna ghar hota ..
Kyuki duniya yeh puchti hai bhai ke apka ghar apna hai ya nhi , gadi hai ya nhi ..
Yeh nhi puchti aap kitne holidays pr gye hai foreign ya apne kitna paisa movies dekhne mein kharch kia ya kitne ki FD kara rkhi hai ..
Risk lene se hi insan aage badtha hai ..
Risk toh jobs mein bi hai like america mein lakhon log unemployed hue recession mein toh kya yeh sochkar maa baap apne bachon ko padhana chhod dein kyuki ismein risk hai har 10 saal mein recession aajati hai ..
agar life mein aage badhna ho toh risk lene padte hain bhaiji .. Aur fir yeh toh basic zaroorat hai roti , kapda aur makaan .

Living on rent will remain always good option instead of buying a flat at very high price.

School fees also highest in gurgaon. 80,000 donation and monthly fees 8000 per month along with transportation. How will you pay Monthly EMI for home loan?

If you are buying home at remote location due to budget then transportation cost will further increase. Stay on rent very near to school and office.

I think this is the right time to keep money at good interest rate and buy whenever you get right opportunity. Don't compromise with property due to budget.
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Old March 30 2012, 01:12 PM   #130
 
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bhai pessimistic soch ka koi ilaaj nhi hai ..
delhi mein reh rhe 1000's of employee commute daily and it takes atleast 1.5 hours due to traffic jams ..
So if one cannot afford property in gurgaon .. Then should buy in faridabad or sonepat type regions where infra is even better ..
There u can get a spacious 3 bhk in 30 lacs ..
Buy a car say santro Fit CNG in it ..
after KMP coming in ur travelling cost would be much cheaper and hassle free .. Because driving on expressways is easy unlike driving in traffic ..
wahan pr kafi ache schools hain and wahan fees bohat kam hai comparatively ..
Aur 30 lacs mein toh ready toh move 3 bhk mil rhe hain in sonepat like places so rent bi bachega .. Apna ghar bi hoga aur future mein jab lage ke han ab u r in position to buy in gurgaon woh sell krke buy in gurgaon simple ..
In this way rent bi bachega ek affordable property mil rhi hai with better infra and education pr kharch bi kum.
 
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