|January 18 2012, 11:22 AM||#1|
Latest Ground Report - U.P Elections
Few days on Road in West U.P with cousins on Election Campaigns.
Visiting many constituencies all the way upto Kanpur.
Decent weather to travel in Car convoys and stopovers and eating out at local leaders residences.
Now back to Khurja area and most likely to come to Noida today or tomorrow and proceed to Agra area.
This is what I have witnessed after being in the seat of campaigns and meeting many seasoned politicians, Voters, local leaders, etc
1. BSP is on a Backfoot for SURE At the moment..the reasons are:
- Mayawati has declined to give tickets to nearly Half of sitting MLAs. This has not gone down with the local leaders and bahubalis who have a great influence on Voters at Ground level.
- Many Sitting BSP leaders were recently humiliated and warned by Mayawati due to some internal Tiffs regd Tickets. This too has left a bad taste in the mouth of many seasoned BSP Leaders
- Many local BSP leaders who have denied a ticket are also being neglected by other parties and they are not being given tickets BUT THEY ARE BEING USED to get Vital Inside info in exchange of Solid Cash and other benefits
- Mayawati is NOT doing much campaign at Ground Level and this is being used by opposition parties to advantage. As one can see Big congress, BJP, SP leaders working hard on Ground...But Mayawati is still in the ''QUEEN Mode''..Her Ego has taken over her in a big way.
At least thats what it looks now...BUT ITS POSSIBLE..she may give a Strong Push in the final days of campaigns..who knows..
-Her Tactic of seperation fo states is also not being used properly in campaigns..infact many campaigns have not even discussed it..this is the fault of their Team.
2. SP is on a war footing lead by Akhilesh Yadav..who is out on a do or die mission, and even though he is inexperienced and lacks the charisma...is doing extensive work on Ground. I met him 2 days back and I must say...HE HAS VERY BRIGHT IDEAS up his sleeve..Its evident he is calling the shots and Shivpal Yadav, brother of Mulayam who was actually controlling U.P has taken a back seat for good..as he was notorious as a Goonda leader. Azam Khan and other Big leaders of SP have too been told to assist Akhilesh in all possible ways
- SP under AKhilesh has send a Clear signal against Goonda leaders by rejecting One of the Most powerful dons of West UP (D.P Yadav)
- SP Campaigns now are well planned and most impontantly at Ground Level....talking mostly about Law and order / Corruption
- Religion and Caste has somehow taken a backseat in this election. I observed very carefully...even in interiors..Voters, Villagers are talking about LAW AND ORDER.....Development and infra is also down on their list.
- ON SUBTLE MISTAKE...SP has done that their were some statements from SP leaders that they wouldnt mind Akhilesh Yadav as a CM...Now this has NOT GONE DOWN well with the SP Goonda Leaders...who are somehow just keeping a low profile for the sake of election. They felt that Once they win..they can resort to their old Goonda Raj under Mulayam.
Akhilesh is being very tough on them and if he becomes CM then its a high possibliltiy he will use an iron fisted approach against them.
3. CONGRESS leaders have concluded that Mr.Rahul Gandhi is turning out to be ''Naam badhey aur darshan chottey'' types. Their Independant surverys showed them that Rahul Gandhi has NOT Succeeded in the way of wooing the voters they expected after all the Drama he did andwith massive media support. He has shown Immaturity and even Ego issues which has made the Congress think tank CALL THEIR BACK UP.....Priyanka Gandhi...who comes across as Stable, cool and very mature person..even though she has not entered politics like Rahul. Her media statements like ''I WILL DO WHATEVER RAHUL SAYS'' is a deliberate attempt to Potray Rahul Gandhi as the Main Leader infront of Junta...when in fact....the Congress Seasoned Leaders have concluded internally that Rahul hasnt done the job for them as they expected.
- The Biggest issue is that EACH AND EVERY Party has through their Internal surveys..come to know that Law and order / Corruption is the NO.1 Issue in these elections now...And whatever congress tries...they cannot hide the fact that its their party and its Top leaders who are accused in the Biggest Scams this nation has seen....so its pretty tough for them to campaign against corruption / Law and order.
- They are campaigning hard against BSP...using her Multi crore parks, Garlands, land deals, etc...to show the people that not only Mayawati has Gobbled billions...she shamelessly flaunts it.
4. BJP: Nothing special in their kitty.....Right from a very poor Leader for UP (Uma Bharti...whom many even inside BJP consider as nothing but trouble maker)....to blunders like including kicked out leaders from other parties (Kushwaha) and later their own leaders openly fighting in this issue......to Public tiffs in the party itself (One section of BJP burning effigies of their own national leader)...has shown clearly that BJP is certainly not ready for this election. Ram Mandir issue has No takers and its leaders tried initially to once again misuse it...but got a cold response. So once again Corruption and Law and order is on their campaign list...but from what has been seen in past few weeks....they are unable to concentrate on it.
Lastly their own top UP leaders have publicly stated that their are not interested in becoming CM of UP (Rajnath Singh for example)...this is a blunder......They could have given such statements AFTER THE ELECTIONS.
Both BJP & Congress have NO LEADER in U.P who can be potrayed as CM...and this is a Big Negative.
5. REAL ESTATE CONNECTION :
- Wave (Ponty chadha group) is financing in a Big way
- Jaypee has started distancing itself from BSP....very subtly.
- Most of the Builders who are on TOP OF LIST to be ''Summoned to Lucknow" if Mayawati loses her seat....started preparing for this long time ago.....by launching many projects....subvention schemes, increasing BSP, etc etc.
If they need more....then no. of floors will increase...Super areas will increase, Construction quality and finishing will be brought down, etc etc.
If CM Changes expect 3-6 months delay in most projects in Noida. The faster Builder negotiates with New Govt...the faster work will resume.
The following Builders are on TOP OF LIST for getting Benefits from BSP:
Jaypee, Wave, Paras, Supertech, 3C, Amrapali, Sunworld, SDS, Logix.
6. A lot of people are assuming that BSP will be best for Noida region, this was very true many years ago but in the past 5 Years BSP govt. has FAILED miserably in Noida region. Everyone knows that the only thing Noida needs is presence of Good MNCs and Industries, and this very fact has been completely sidelined by BSP in past 4 years.
BSP simply sold all the land to builders to make residential projects and nothing was done to attarct Industries.
100s of Industires LEFT noida and many didnt show any interest to set up their base here....as unlike before when Industires were given good discounts and incentives....NOW...Hefty commission and under table money is asked from them.....
So these industires prefer Haryana and even Rajasthan to U.P
A very High percentage of Commercials are empty in prime locations of Noida due to this attitude of Govt. in state
Even Mayawatis PET Projects like University, colleges, schools, govt. hospitals, Parks have NOT COMPLETED FULLY and stand a chance to be stalled if CM Changes.
This clearly showed that authorties and officials were more busy in selling land than to complete these projects
The Ego issue and inability of Mayawati to politically influence the central govt. for railway station, airport, etc has also been a setback for this region.
BSP ''WAS'' the best party for this region....and expect nothing more from them if they come back in power....
What this region needs is a CM...who has a say in Central Govt.
7. PREDICTION: Though its impossible to predict any election till the last vote is cast......from what I have seen at Ground level.....SP is certainly Gaining...and its a close race.
Remember its NOT JUST 2012 U.P Elections but the BIGGEST FACTOR is 2014 GENERAL ELECTIONS.
Any Party which does well in these elections and then in next 2 years does a ''reasonable'' job...stand a good chance in 2014 general elections.
Their party leaders will stand a HUGE Chance of becoming National level MINISTERS.
SP + CONGRESS + RLD: Are edging ahead.....
8. PERSONAL OPINION
To end..before people start believing that Mulayam Singh is Worst for Noida region...here are few of his Contributions in 3 YEARS as CM last time...for Noida region (Of course he had stalled Yamuna expressway, Jaypee projects, and even tried to abolish GB Nagar district...But after Supreme court verdict...he understood the importance of this region as made many attempts to assist this region to grow)
1. Alotted 2500 SEZ to Reliance near sector 150 Noida expressway
This was abolished by Mayawati in 2007
2. WIPRO was directly allotted 200 acres of Land IN 2 DAYS TIME in Greater Noida for SEZ
3. Largest Gas based power plant in Dadri sanctioned to Reliance..Again abolished by Mayawati in 2007
4. Nandan Nilekani (co-founder Infosys) was made the head of an Organisation made specially to attract MNCs in Noida region.
5. Film City Noida was headed by Jaya Bachhan (then close to Mulayam) and she through her connections managed to attract many media companies in Noida region
These are a few examples.....just to show that Noida region is the financial capital of U.P and cannot be ignored by any Goverment.
BSP had a full fledged 4 year tenure (100% Power) and failed to even hold on to existing industires..forget attracting new ones.
BSP was BEST for noida region many years ago...but seeing their attitude and performance in past 4 years....they simply have lost their bearings.
Thousands of Acres of Prime land was sold only to builders..with no effort to attract MNCs and Industries..infact making them leave the region due to callous attitude.
Just 300-400 acres of land Total in Noida-Greater Noida region IF WAS Sold directly to Industries and MNCs with good incentives (like done in 90s) could have taken this region to No.1 destination in NCR.
Noida expressway with 8-10 Big Campuses directly alotted to Industires / MNCs
Noida extension with 8-10 Big Campuses Directly alotted to Industries / MNCs
Greater Noida with 8-10 Big Campuses Directly to Industires/ MNCs
Yamuna expressway with 8-10 Big Campuses directly to Industires / MNCs
What these Companies and Industries Want are Tax incentives, Good discounts, proactive authority and govt. Inviting them and minimising hassles....Most of succesful states in this regard have special departments made with CM taking direct interest ad meeting industrialists and MNCs...Like Bihar, Uttarakhand, Gujrat and even West Bengal is planning to do same.
Mayawati completely ignored this department...and i am sure will continue ignoring if she wins again.
I Feel....BSP should lose in this election...they were good 10-15 years back....but not now
Leaving for Noida now...stay for 2 days....
If anything special to write...will post next week....
Till then...Enjoy the election fever....(though its negligible in city area)....One should go to Interiors to see the Intensity and Impact of Elections.....Its Mind blowing !!!
Maybe I will post something next week...if anything special....
|January 18 2012, 11:45 AM||#2|
Which constituency in Kanpur(Rural) you visited ????
Dont agree at all with following at all :
........ Religion and Caste has somehow taken a backseat in this election. I observed very carefully...even in interiors..Voters, Villagers are talking about LAW AND ORDER.....Development and infra is also down on their list.
|January 18 2012, 12:09 PM||#4|
Religion and caste can NEVER be Completely Ignored in India
But from what I saw at Ground level.....I didnt see many campaigns (even from BJP) talking much about Religion.
Law and Order, Corruption is NO.1 Agenda os ALL PARTIES (So there must be some good reason for that)
Of course all parties are playing the Caste, religion card by giving tickets accordingly.....What i meant...was that in CAMPAIGNS and INTERACTIONS WITH VOTERS...
Nearly all parties are not putting Religion , caste on top of their list.....
And YES...in most constituencies....Development and Infrastructure are NOT No.1 Agenda......which could be a surprise for many spl the educated class.....but for ACTUAL VOTERS......it seems to be low on their list.....Why...I dont know.....
I wrote what i saw.....
The voters in U.P Simply want their shops open and less gundagiri, abductions, riots, etc etc......
Maybe ONCE THEY HAVE TASTED the benefits of Development and Infratsructure...they will put in top of their list...
|January 18 2012, 12:10 PM||#5|
I remember somebody (I think Venky or was it someone else) yesterday predicting on IREF that Rates in some JP projects jumping by 30-35%(from 3000 to 4000) if BSP comes to power !!!!!!!
To me it, it was not at all convincing !!!!!
Don't know as to on what basis this prediction was made ?????
|January 18 2012, 12:16 PM||#6|
SP is still fielding criminal candidates. If not directly then indirectly.
Amar Mani Tripathi's son got SP ticket in his place.
From Shahjanwa, Gorakhpur Yashpal Rawat, sitting Indendent MLA got ticket from SP. He was absconding in a murder case for one year. 2 year back he killed a another criminal who had killed his father long back.
List goes long...
Peace Party ne East UP me SP/Congress/BSP ka peace cheen liya hai... This time they will get a big pie of Muslim vote in all rural areas. Mostly they have fielded those candidate who were ignored long time from big parties. Might win 4-5 seats also. This will be next BSP in another 10 years.
Not sure who will get benefit might be either BJP or BSP. But BJP really very bad management... they could have done much better this time if would have declared candidates one year before....
I don't see wave going on in any favour.... In my area sitting MLA is from BJP but not sure he will win this time as SP has fielded a Muslim candidate but not a strong leader...
But Gorakhpur city : Radha Mohan Agarwal from BJP... No competion...third time sure shot entry..
Better if we give areawise detail from where we belong then we can get very good idea. Like I am giving from Gorakhpur area.
|January 18 2012, 12:32 PM||#7|
Ok....My Last post for now....just about to leave...
1. Jaypee has starting SUBTLY distancing itself from BSP....by distancing I mean...they are KEEPING OPTIONS OPEN.....BSP is like thier family....but Jaypee with Yamuna expressway and F1 putting them on world map....is opening up thier horizons ...which many Business group do....Relianace, tata, etc etc..do that all the time.
New generation of Jaypee is doing things in this direction
2. If BSP Loses...Jaypee will definately have delays...but probably with their new attitude and dimension..they will be able to strike a deal with new Govt (if any)....if the new CM is not hell bent against jaypee.
From the attitude of SP...it seems they too are changing thier image and if SP Comes to power...expect GOVERMENT PROJECTS of Mayawati to be stalled....but other private projects could see a Green....if proper negotiatios are done.
Renaming of Universities, etc is also on cards
3. let me tell you the REASON why Jaypee has NOT BEEN ABLE TO COMMAND a good resale price NOW is:
- Slow progress (nothing to do with BSP)
- Very poor Customer relations (nothing to do with BSP)
- Launching too many projects one after other (again..not related to BSP)
- Huge Project and even after 4 years...NOTHING IS READY ...(again not related to BSP)
The day these factors FADE AWAY...and going by construction and maintenance quality of Jaypee in their past projects...if they MAINTAIN that in future projects...Jaypee Noida will start showing results
Jayppe will take 7-8 years Easily to complete this project
Prices in noida region are being influenced by SUPPLY....which is coming from many directions...
Once this Supply subsides...then expect Good Jumps.
I HAVE MAINTAINED THIS ALWAYS:
QUALITY WILL BE NO.1 FACTOR IN DETERMINING THE RESALE VALUE
I expect only 5-10% projects to have a commanding resale price over other average projects
INDIAN BUILDERS ARE VERY BAD AT MAINTENANCE AND QUALITY
OK...Got to go....Bye bye.....Off to Noida !!!
Maybe post something next week....if something interesting
|January 18 2012, 12:43 PM||#8|
In UP it's very tough to predict. I will tell case of 2007 election. BSP was in wave in UP. A sitting MLA from BSP was contesting MLA election from Shahjanwa,GKP. He taken public as granted and was kind of disappeared from area to become Bjojpuri film hero for 2 years.
While another SP leader Yashpal Rawat (son of a old late leader) was making ground for 2-3 years in local public and was hoping SP ticket. But SP given ticket to someone else at end time and Yashpal contested indendently.
He was not so a great leader, a young guy who got politices by family. But was availabe in area and did ground work.
By leaving all other behind he become MLA. BSP MLA was surprised as how come he lost otherwise would have been minister in BSP govt.
Now this time SP has given ticket to same MLA Yashpal rawat...and BSP a new face.... Let's see what happens as current MLA also disappeared in a murder case for a year. But local public has sympathy as he killed only another Goonda who has killed his father in 1992 I guess.
So in nutshell telling mood of UP is very different.
|January 18 2012, 02:32 PM||#9|
nobody know if Congress will emerge as dark horse in similar fashion in last general election where they won 20 seats..BJP is sure going to be 4th standing..they are nowhere in elctions and sad part is they are not interested..their so called corruption issue cooled down by khushwaha..