83rakeshk

DEAR all ,
think in bit with all round sphere ,
Consider in yr 2016
INR close 75 versus $
Petrol @100 and diesel @70
Gold @50K
Fiscal defict - above7% of GDP
Real Inflation, consumer base above 10%
Commodities rallied further 50% from here
Corrouption at its Peak
Failed Adminsitrative system at governance level
Potato and all vegetables @50% higher than current Price tag
Education cost Further 50% higher than Present value

Further 50% liquid money issued by RBI and Central bank across the world in the name Debt Crisis,

What you all think
I believe any rate irraspective of demand Supply match is bound to be in the similar pattern

When gold was at 10k , it was felt valued at higher end today it is above 31k and it may go above 50k by 2016

One important think people missing in yr 1991 total Cash floating in the market was valued at 50k Crores
Today it is close to 14L Crores and as UPA non Planned expenses it is bound to go above 25Lakh crore by 2016
so u will find too much money chasing too little goods and products
1991-2016 - 50 times ratio
review the rate during 1991 and approximate it at 2016
good location will definetly commond the similar ratio
Its all about poor/ failed administrative system and uncontrolled financial regulation
Keep going with Narenga/ NRHm/Free /Social welfare , and u will find what every investor is willing to have
My Perseption is that normal average Flat in NCR in good location commands atleast 6k PSF and it will grow min 15-20% PA,
till the time the mechanism of financial regulation is checked
that is control the Loosing Power of ur Ruppee
Its getting diminasihed day -2
And now its above Punters hand , and now it fall because of Poor macro-economic rather than traders
and Gold , Oh my darling.........

dpkmjn2012

Noida expressway –

· Many good schools are there like amity, The Shriram Millennium School, Mayoor School, Lotus Valley etc. and few other are coming.

· JM Hospital (don't remember the exact name)(sector 132), TCS in Unitech SEZ (sector 135), jaypee hospital (128/132).

· Corporate already present. (TCS, Accenture etc)

· Sec-18 Noida 10 min

· Proximity to south Delhi.

· adobe campus is coming right opposite Jaypee Klassic

(source IREF)

I have seen Gurgaon changing its face and getting a similar feeling for Neway.

jaijai

As it is said "Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance". In last 10 years, the world and India saw phenomenal growth. Most likely, it won't get repeated in next 10 years. This will get reflected in RE prices as well.

Does our gdp grow by 5% or 9% - this has to have some bearing on RE prices...

83rakeshk

asset class higher valuation is not based on growth ,
Since Independance till date except last decade , growth rate was not imprassive , but if you compare
gold rate during 1947 was closes 100 per 10gm , during 1990 it was 3000 check how many times today it is more than 31k ,
all this appreciation is not because of growth , and i am not saying date it will act in same maner in RE , as liquidity in this sector is not an easy ask , and it depends on the holding capicity of individuals , buyers will keep postponding their requirment due to affordability , seller hold becuase of desire rate , some surprise may be in between this , but take an example compare the cost of normal item to property rate in zimbabwe in their currency local one , waha to billion dollar kae feat currency you can imagine how cost it would be
and never think in india it could not be as we r too big and too inteleggant
have a look at USSR economic status before 1988 and today,
you will get all the asset class including RE has jumped more than 50 times in their local currency
IF Russia mae ho sakta hai (When it was one pillar of Super power)
to India mae Kyun nahin ho sakta
afterall we r too smart
I agree it would not be our success rather its our failure if prices go in that fashion
I agree real Purchasing Power should not more than 5 times of avg salry (for RTM) with 8-10 yrs of work exp ppl domestically ,

ChupaRustam

Many people used to say that property prices never reduce. and that had been true for most of the human history. Still we have seen serious price corrections in many countries... Its not just the rich countries, but also developing countries like Eastern Asia etc.

The fact remains that there is price escalation due to genuine development of the area and there is rise due to pure speculation..

In Gurgaon, one could get a nice appt near MG road in 15 lakhs in 2001 whereas now prices are more than 10 times. but then, in 2001 the area was like a huge barren land, looking like a desert, but now it is a major economic powerhouse with lots of world's top companies setting up HUGE office complexes with thousands of employees. This has created a huge gap in demand-supply which has remained mostly unfulfilled.

If this kind of economic development were to happen in any part of the country, then the prices appreciation of appartments will certainly follow the trends of Gurgaon.

What we will see in Noida in future is probably some decent development of the areas starting with Noida 7x and expway and followed by NE in a few years - due to some economic growth, although still far away from the pace at which Gurgaon grew.. but speculative appreciation of prices will be almost gone. And considering the lower growth in incomes and revenues in the economy, the excess money componet will be reduced.

Hence the "18% yoy" growth across the segment seems to be mostly a thing of the past. A 8-10% growth in 2-4 seems more realistic. Honestly, that would not be a bad bet either considering that stock market has been giving near 0% growth for quite some time and inflation is on a rise too.

ADIT11983

good now apply all the thories to Greate noida and see the cookies crumble...all theories are good in context of some assumptions..if those assumptions are not fullfilled then the theory fails as well. I doubt this as previously floors were not allowed in Delhi..so one kothi that had one family now has 4-5 families. Flats are higher in Noida and 000's of them vacant in Greater noida ...so my question " where are the people"...and this is not erotic

AnshuB

It still holds - I have been chasing sec-93* since Feb12 - here are rates quoted y'day by a dealer (plz dnt PM me for his no etc...I am not regular on forum) - there were times when I thot here comes correction----but a rude shock usually followed it faster.....

Just for my focus - Eldeco comes at avg. of Rs8500/-

Sector 93 Rates As-On Aug-28
Eldeco Per Sqft
1945 16600000 8535
1915 14700000 7676
2700 25000000 9259 2200 + Lawn 1600 sq ft
ATS
1500 14500000 9667
1750 18500000 10571
2800 32500000 11607
Omaxe Forrest
4100 26500000 6463
Silver City
1415 11000000 7774
1765 10500000 5949
3200 20500000 6406

dpkmjn2012

Yes this is the true scenario and we can't escape from it. I hope we all faced it . .

kamal960

Dear all,
As I have myself stated in the previous post,it is a very very vague formula and I am not talking about the only last 30 years,where we have witnessed higher growth.Take any period 1950-1980,1920-1950,1960-1990,Average growth results will be quite similar.Although it will be difficult to gather older data but not impossible.May I repeat,where ever in India,whichever type of property,whichever time period.

Actually it is more than 100 times in 30 years but I had to make the provision like encroachment,litigation or some unfavorable development which can happen in approx 10% cases.

At least I have given the reasons,wrong/right,to reach the 17% annual growth rate.Would love to know how the other people reached the projected growth rate of 5-7 or 8 Or whatever percentage.

Last,we must not forget,ncr is what Bombay was between 1950-1980 or Calcutta before,centre of influx of migration.So I dont expect why it should under perform.

Digvijay

The same issues were discussed some time back

In last 10 years most of the property around Delhi has appreciated by all most 400 percent to 600 percent. This has pulled up all the NCR region as well. Some areas have appreciated almost 6 to 8 times.
Was this appreciation normal or just everything over shot.
Also the salaries increased by almost the similar tune.
Around 2001~2002 a salary of Rs 20000 per month was quiet decent.
This was the salary of average techi or marketing guy.
This salary is now increased to Rs 1 lakh per month, and a lakh per month is considered decent now.

The property prices have taken a hint from the salary rise or the salary rise has taken a hint from the property rise, I dont know for sure. But surely both of them increased by near similar proportions.

Now the questions are

1) Are the builders trying to squeeze out maximum on past trends ?

2) Does the property price will again jump so much in next 10 years, there by making NCR most expensive place to live in entire world ??

3) Will the salaries again jump five folds in next 10 years to make India one of the most high paying job markets ? Imagine a plain techie or marketing guy earning $ 10000 per month. This will make NCR best place to work.

The above can be contradicted by saying dollar is appreciating day by day. And yes if does dollar appreciates so much that after next five fold jump in salary the dollar value is around USD 2000~3000 , then god forbid , there will be Mayhem in India, as everything else will become so costly.

4) Are we not overlooking the facts apart from time factor which has contributed to this increase in prices ??

5) Does this price rise will be for ever, then each 2 BHK in delhi will be for a million dollar after 10 years( provided dollar does not appreciate so much).

The answer to above facts might help us evaluate the future of price increase in NCR or India better.

__________________
Digvijay