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Old July 6 2012, 07:15 AM   #101
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yeah but i hope this really brings back those nut-heads back to ground who are quoting prices sky-high

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Old July 6 2012, 06:17 PM   #102
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Default Flats worth over Rs 1-lakh crore unsold in Mumbai: Report

Flats worth over Rs 1-lakh crore unsold in Mumbai: Report - The Economic Times



MUMBAI: Residential property market in Mumbai has stagnated pushing unsold inventory in the city to 80,000 units valued at Rs 1,05,000 crore, as buyers have kept away from the market in anticipation of an imminent drop in prices in the near future, said a Knight Frank India report.

Absorption numbers in 2011-12 are estimated to have dropped in Mumbai residential market by more than 60% from its 2007 heydays and 35% from 2010-11 to an estimated 45,000 units, showed the research conducted by the property consultant. The absorption level of 45,000 units in the Mumbai Metropolitan Region during 2011-12 is well below the market average of 70,000 to 80,000 units annually.

South and central Mumbai, which only offer products at the premium end of the residential price band, are experiencing the highest vacancy levels, the report said. "This steep drop in absorption levels should have resulted in a similar correction in prices. However, a regulator-imposed supply crunch through delay in approvals ensured that market equilibrium was maintained," said the report.

Around 55,000 units were launched in FY12, down almost 40% from the 92,000 units launched during 2010-11. Supply has also been constrained during 2011-2012 as developers have been actively delaying project launches and looking to liquidate current inventory before launching any fresh product, to ease pressure on prices.

Developers are under pressure to deleverage their positions in the backdrop of continuously mounting debts with the market offering little respite. The total debt position of five major Mumbaibased developers stood at Rs 6,200 crore as on March 2012, while they are holding on to a total unsold inventory of Rs 14,300 crore -14 % of the total MMR market.

Knight Frank believes that a price correction in Mumbai residential market is warranted in the medium term. It expects the rise in interest costs for the realty sector by 37% from a year ago in 2011-12 and decline in net profits by 28% for the same period may compel developers to lighten their inventory load and deleverage their balance sheets.
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Old July 7 2012, 12:17 AM   #103
 
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Default Spanish Industry Shrinks For Ninth Month As Recession Worsens - 06/07/12 Bloomberg

Spanish industrial production fell for the ninth month in May as the recession in the euro area’s fourth-largest economy worsened amid rising borrowing costs.
Output at factories, refineries and mines adjusted for the number of working days fell 6.1 percent from a year earlier, after an 8.3 percent decline in April, the National Statistics Institute in Madrid said today in an e-mailed statement. That is less than the median forecast for an 8.1 percent contraction in a Bloomberg survey of seven economists.
Spain’s recession probably intensified in the second quarter as the European sovereign debt crisis worsened, the Bank of Spain said on June 27. Acerinox SA, Spain’s largest steelmaker, is laying off workers for as many as 15 days per month at the Ponferrada plant of its Roldan SA unit.
Amper SA, which makes telecommunications equipment, said on June 29 it would lay off 220 employees.
As the government’s access to financial markets narrows, Spain is negotiating the terms of a 100 billion-euro ($125 billion) European bailout for its banks. The yield on Spain’s 10-year benchmark bond was little higher at 6.86 percent at 8:52 a.m. in Madrid, compared with a euro-era intraday high of 7.285 percent on June 18.
The government predicts domestic demand, including spending by public administrations, will shrink 3.1 percent in 2012, more than four times last year’s rate, as close to a quarter of the workforce is jobless. Exports, which the government forecast would drive the recovery, dropped in April for the first time since 2009.
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Old December 27 2012, 07:47 AM   #104
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So looking back , we think this was a year of recession ? If so what impact it had on RE prices.
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Old December 27 2012, 05:16 PM   #105
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Quote:
Originally Posted by compuwalah View Post
So looking back , we think this was a year of recession ? If so what impact it had on RE prices.
this year had a lot of effect on RE prices in Pune. Rates for properties; under construction, ready possession and resales; all went up
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Old December 28 2012, 08:18 AM   #106
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Quote:
Originally Posted by realacres View Post
Aslam,
The time to invest in RE has gone already. Many people will say that RE will give good returns on long term. Long term?? Personally, I wonder whether the current flats/craps which are built by builders will ever sustain 20 yrs. Add to it that the if RE doesn't appreciate, even after 15 yrs, the new flat will be going at the same price to what you will quote. It is a big, big loss. Again, when you resale, you have to put your foot down as the buyer has multiple options. Hence, negotiating power may or may not be there if Pune doesn't boom the way it did in past 5-7 yrs.
For now, see if you get a good deal for self use & buy. For investments, RE is strictly no-no.
From this old psot of Jul 2010 (2.5 years old)
What would have happened to people who followed this advice
Just check the rate of rise in 2011 and 2012.
This rather proved to be the last great chance to buy prop.
Think classis case of gloom piling on gloom effect. One negetive post and other piles on it making it look real.

Quote:
Originally Posted by frugality View Post
Buying RE's Risk is like day trading 30L
Today's IE Business section
They Did Their Homework (800 Years of It)
Their handiwork is contained in their recent best seller, “This Time Is Different,” a quantitative reconstruction of hundreds of historical episodes in which perfectly smart people made perfectly disastrous decisions. It is a panoramic opus, both geographically and temporally, covering crises from 66 countries over the last 800 years.
.......
Mr. Rogoff says a senior official in the Japanese finance ministry was offended at the suggestion in “This Time Is Different” that Japan had once defaulted on its debt and sent him an angry letter demanding a retraction.
Mr. Rogoff sent him a 1942 front-page article in The Times documenting the forgotten default. “Thank you,” the official wrote in apology, “for teaching the Japanese something about our own country.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/04/bu...html?src=busln
As all of us are currently doing ... 3 times Stock and RE rise in 10 yrs ..it would be ***** to compare with last 10 yr prices.
(Hint: Google Supercycle )
last 50 - 60 yrs were there ever such times ?
Whatever your wisdom.....
Experts wisdom .....
Relative's Wisdom(if they are not the MBA from top Bschools and in Economic research ...) .....
None have tested such times ....Last time such issue was in 1930.....
Hardly any 100 yr olds are in Advising scene........

When there are such Risks in target ....
Why RE buyers are trying to become 'THE LIFTMAN' (greater fool theory)

Those who day trade for 30 Lakhs can take such bet in RE esp of Pune/Mumbai.....
Rest all are at risk of burning their fingers....Will that be a good Financial decision ?
From this post of Jul 2010 (2.5 years old),
what is your opinion frugy. Day trading is gr8 stuff to make tonnes of money ?
What does Rogoff etc do these days ? what homework what man ?
Is self reflection is out of fashion lately (ok leave aside Venkytalks)

Quote:
Originally Posted by compuwalah View Post
You could have added something like Diwali of 2012 or Holi of 2012 for easy categorization. Good that people are now predicting two year ahead (six month , 1 year time span predictions have been abandoned due to finger/credibility burnt ). Anyway this be categorized as one more Diwali/Holi thread . doomers !! for your further action. Can you make it more gloomy compared to other D/H threads ... wisey can contribute some charts here to support same .
From this post of Jun 2010 (2.5 years old)
As I predicted, the thread proved to be a canvas to paint gloomy picture and one can see where we stand at end of 2012.
Quote:
Originally Posted by nitesh321 View Post
Looking at Diwali, Jun-Jul threads & now this one....it seems this is a Recession & world economy forum & not RE forum anymore
Great to have members who can predict recessions & comment on next course of World Economy.
From this post of Jul 2010 (2.5 years old),
Good one nitesh. Actually bears got bit cautious in 2010 as Diwali and Holi seemed to arrive faster than expected (predictions made in 2009) busting the prediction.
So this time they went long (2.5 years ahead prediction). Chances are that people will forget by that time .
But there are some sticky guys like compu who do not have anythign better to do than just pop up at the time when the
expiry date of a prediction is arriving.
This time bears need to take bit longer time window.
Guys I propose 2019 ... subject to approval of others of course.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Venkytalks View Post
Frugality, you cannot live in a demat share. You can live in your flat.
Making booking today and selling it tomorrow - now that is day trading. Usually for 2-3 Lakhs only. Like shares, you can double your money in a few months. Unlike shares, very rarely will you lose half your money in the booking game.
Looking at past 50 years of Indian history, RE has always outperformed stock, bonds and g o l d.
For the last 800 years, RE and g o l d have been the primary repositories of wealth in India (cows being perishable and transitory)
Why should it be any different this time?
Those who cry "RE will crash"
are the ones who are saying "This time it (India RE) will be different" and
"This time Indian RE market will behave differently from past behaviour"
From this post of Jul 2010 (2.5 years old),
you know not man frugy must have found way to stay in demat form (like ghosts etc). So no need of house etc. Only internet connection is enuf.
btw some words of wisdom do shower occasionally on this forum.
Quote:
Originally Posted by frugality View Post
24 Depressing Pieces Of Evidence That Difficult Economic Times Lie Ahead
24 Encouraging Pieces Of Evidence That Wonderful Economic Times Lie Ahead
and this is the best time to invest in Pune RE
24 Depressing Pieces Of Evidence That Difficult Economic Times Lie Ahead - Business Insider
From this post of Jul 2010 (2.5 years old),
boss this was best time to invest. oh wait. you are saying the same thing. sorry. reacted bit early.
Wait. Why title of thread and content are all flip flopping in view.
Oh. That was some sarcasm in action. Good try though.
Man tell you this was a great contribution in making the thread confusing in addition to makign it gloomy.
Quote:
Originally Posted by frugality View Post
Yes they are ... this is no season change....
what shirt you bought in 2007 at 1400 now same type is available in 700.
All US stores .. they too are offering 'offers' from last one year ... why...
the book you have read is now being rewritten....
lot of fundamentals are being rethink-ed ...
when salaries are not raising quarterly ........some prices are.... some place the cut will happen ....
and you cannot eat a flat, ride it to reach office, although you can very well live without owing one ....
From this post of Jul 2010 (2.5 years old),
Believe me. I tried hard to connect this to RE scenario but my limited intelligence fails me.
But since you have written it, must have some deeper meaning which we will understand some day.
Quote:
Originally Posted by wiseman View Post
Every day provides vast learning ...
The great thing about the stock market is that it provides vast amounts of learning to anyone who is willing ... every day!
Back in the 80s and 90s, I used to literally know the financial details of 100s of companies. This used to be of great use when we used to make trips to other states all over the country. We will be passing some
---- cut ----- to save environment and brain cells
cheers
From this post of Oct 2010 (2.25 years old),
wonder if we shuld focus on what years have taught us intead of days (macro vs micro).
Else we will be penny wise pound foolish.
Quote:
Originally Posted by frugality View Post
Wisey said : I start my market session for today around 1:30AM! Why? Because I'm looking at the first thing that will influence our markets - DOW, S&P and Nasdaq.
Then I start computer again at 8:50am and start tracking Far Eastern markets. First thing our market does its usual early morning jiggle of up-down-up-down (not knowing exactly what to do or where to go) before it settles down to whichever way Far Eastern markets have gone .... Till 1:00PM.
Post noon I setup 3 more windows for DAX, FTSE and CAC, After 1:30pm our markets start behaving whichever way European markets behave!
Most of the days, you will find this happening. Unless there is some pressing Indian news that make it go its own way.
Our punters today talk about de-coupling. But thats complete nonsense. Almost the entire rally from 17.5k to now is because of nearly 1,00,000 Crores (1 Lakh Crores!) being pumped into our market by FIIs in less than 3 months. Our market now acts like a Schizophrenic, adopting the stance of Far East in morning, Europe in afternoon and when US starts their crisis, whatever DOW does, on the next day!!!
In fact traders have a profitable strategy in waiting till 1:00PM, watching early European movement and taking a call on direction. Many a times I have made very profitable moves in Nifty in the last 30-60 minutes of the market

-------------------
frugy replies

WiseMan /Other Senior Members

Can you understand this article ...
is this a correct/tentative Storm forecast ?

Just understand the last para....

"This is a major, major crisis. The Lehman bankruptcy could be a spring rain compared to this hurricane. And if this isn't handled right...and handled right quick, in the next couple of weeks at the outside...this crisis could also spell the end of the mortgage business altogether. Of banking altogether. Hell, of civil society. What do you think happens in a country when the citizens realize they don't need to pay their debts?

The Subprime Debacle: Act 2 - Thoughts From The Frontline - Investment Strategies, Analysis & Intelligence for Seasoned Investors.
From this post of Oct 2010 (2.25 years old),
saam tv guys. There are some good astrologers/mystics etc that could help you with nightmares and its effects. Maybe take mayan guys also with you. Just kidding.
hurricane ? What talk you.


There are more stuff on page 9 of this thread, which is getting overwhelming now.Please read for yourself,.
Some graphs etc , I am scared. graphophobia you know.

Quote:
Originally Posted by compuwalah View Post
That means go and buy property of your choice . You anyway do not have to pay the debt
From this post of Oct 2010 (2.25 years old),
ha ha good one. Oh. talking to self. ok . I will also go to saam tv :-)
This thread is a sea of wisdom my friends and one need to go through it himself to learn from it.
Not that content therein are the wisdom. But when you rub the contents against the reality (like flintstones), you get the fire/light of knowledge.
I know its a irony or creating light out of darkness but that is the world mor amigoes.
and that was closing thread for 2012 (unless I find more hidden gems in the sea) and we can put the 2012 predictions to closure.

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Old December 28 2012, 01:05 PM   #107
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Ok Compuwalah, you made your point. Now can you please stop opening all the old threads.
Thanks.
UncleScrooge and simsagar like this.
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Old December 31 2012, 09:27 AM   #108
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hellrazed View Post
Ok Compuwalah, you made your point. Now can you please stop opening all the old threads.
Thanks.
Once again I will tell the same. Since these theads are relevant for 2012 doomzday predictions, its very valid to open and analyse them at the end of 2012. If someone wants to stick his head in sand and decided not to learn from past, he is welcome to ignore these posts. Please subscribe and read posts like China economy down, Bantander bank issue, Italy not doing well, Phillipine pulling all cal center job (if all that makes you happy) .... and appreciate all the creativity of collecting all possible bad news from umpteen avenues.

and if you see the reason my post to "make point" , it would be a pity. If purpose was to make my point, I could rake twenty odd articles from web supporting some view and then added my twist of pseudo expertise to it. But rather for all the threads I have waited till the expiry of such and just pointed to the facts.
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Old December 31 2012, 09:56 AM   #109
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Smile Revisiting post

This post of revisiting the predictions for 2012 is quite thought provoking and appropriate , now that new year 2013 is here with a bang . This will certainly assist forum members to make informed decisions. May be start prediction for 2014 so that people can be guided on their investments for 2013 Cheers
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Old December 31 2012, 09:27 PM   #110
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Quote:
Originally Posted by compuwalah View Post
Once again I will tell the same. Since these theads are relevant for 2012 doomzday predictions, its very valid to open and analyse them at the end of 2012. If someone wants to stick his head in sand and decided not to learn from past, he is welcome to ignore these posts. Please subscribe and read posts like China economy down, Bantander bank issue, Italy not doing well, Phillipine pulling all cal center job (if all that makes you happy) .... and appreciate all the creativity of collecting all possible bad news from umpteen avenues.

and if you see the reason my post to "make point" , it would be a pity. If purpose was to make my point, I could rake twenty odd articles from web supporting some view and then added my twist of pseudo expertise to it. But rather for all the threads I have waited till the expiry of such and just pointed to the facts.
Would you like to give some predictions of your own? But not like "I told you so" but instead based on some data/trends (not past trends)/insider info etc?

I agree that most of the predictions came wrong but I think it is simply because the forum members here could not have a good judgement on either how deep builder pockets are or how they are connected to politician ruling class itself.

Day by day, we are getting news on how rules are getting bent for political re investment (NCP, vadera, gadkari, lalu, mayawati, and many more). It just indicates that there are far too larger interest involved hence the realism is out of question.

Now in this situation, one can try riding the rising tide not knowing how much it is going to rise or stay cautious with their money. The choice is individual.

Please make some predictions using any economical model, information, or anything for that matter and we can open that post at the end of 2013 for analysis. What say?
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