Anybody ever gave a thought to what will happen to the Real Estate Industry or real estate scenario in Indian cities in the next one or two years - in 53 cities that too, from next year onwards - with the FDI clearance given by the Cabinet on 24.11.11 for 51% FDI in multi-brand stores and 100% FDI in single-brand stores - with international giants like Wal-Mart, Carrefour planning to open 100s and 100s of giant sized showrooms, stores and Malls in 53 cities with a population of one million or more???

4 million new direct jobs will be created with the above FDI opening, 6 million new logistics jobs will be created with this FDI opening. That is a total of 100 lakh new jobs in 4 years from now, in a market that is estimated to be $28 billion now in 53 cities, expected to grow to $260 billion by 2020.

What will these 100 lakh new employees (new jobs created) do with their salaries? The same thing that you are all doing. Rush to the nearest bank for a housing loan, to buy property. Even if only 10% of this 100 lakh newly employed people jump into the real estate buyer's market, u are talking about 10 lakh new potential buyers competing for living space.

Even if you divide this 10 lakh new buyers by 53 cities listed by the Government, u are talking about a potential 18,900 new people in the buyer's market looking for property in each of these 53 cities. Out of that, even if just 2000 new people want to buy apartments in Sarjapur Road, 2000 in Marathalli, 2000 in Yelahanka, 2000 in KR Puram, prices are bound to rise meteorically - because most projects on an average have just about 180 or 240 apartments each in the mid-range-segment from Rupees 40 to 60 lakhs.

All the above in a retail market (things that we consume everyday) that is currently now, only $ 28 billion.

Add to the above, an estimated another 10 lakh new migrants per year (government's own estimate) flooding into Bangalore from all parts of India in search of Employment opportunities. This itself will take Bangalore's population from current 95 lakhs to close to 2 crores easily, by 2020.

Imagine what will happen in 2020, when the retail market will be $ 260 billion by when 700 new stores would have opened - generating another 200 lakh new jobs, banks flush with money to lend to you and new dreamy eyed newly employed youngsters like you ready to splurge in the real estate market.

Off Sarjapur Road areas by then would be 5500 psft and the highly ignored C-Anekal belt areas would easily be 3000 psft. Anjanapura, the BDA sites there now selling at 1800 psft, would have touched atleast 6000 psft because by then, Anjanapura will have its own Metro Train connectivity - so also Bommasandra Flyover area, close to Chandapura Circle, with its own Metro Train.

So, the time to buy is - "Yesterday". Not Today. Not Tomorrow - Not Next Year.
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  • BJP ruling govt in the State has not allowed Such FDI investment in Karnataka.
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  • Sabre Rattling!!

    Originally Posted by cookie
    BJP ruling govt in the State has not allowed Such FDI investment in Karnataka.


    Cookie, do u know what is called "bellicose rhetoric"? Or for that matter, what is called "sabre rattling"?

    So, u think the corrupt BJP government will rule Karnataka till 2020? Hopefully, Karnataka people are not duds to bring them back to power again, in the next general election. All that sabre rattling by them and by Uma Bharti about herself personally burning the first Wal-Mart stores in UP is purely only for public consumption - that is what is called "bellicose rhetoric".

    Assuming Narendra Modi, BJP stays in Gujarat till 2020, assuming he will welcome all and sundry FDI Retail into Gujarat - assuming BJP stays in Karnataka too till 2020, do u think they can afford to have 2 absolutely contradicting policies in 2 states, both ruled by BJP - adopting a policy of absolute "polarisation" within the party itself?

    Politicians sometimes know better than u and me - to do exactly the right thing that is good for the nation, atleast once in a while, atleast once every decade.
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  • What are you smoking? Walmarts and Tescos are not exactly going to throw money at employees.... With a average salary of 25 to 30 k per month who is going to afford those EMIs..

    Retail FDI will take sometime:bab (5):


    Originally Posted by RAVIKANTH
    Anybody ever gave a thought to what will happen to the Real Estate Industry or real estate scenario in Indian cities in the next one or two years - in 53 cities that too, from next year onwards - with the FDI clearance given by the Cabinet on 24.11.11 for 51% FDI in multi-brand stores and 100% FDI in single-brand stores - with international giants like Wal-Mart, Carrefour planning to open 100s and 100s of giant sized showrooms, stores and Malls in 53 cities with a population of one million or more???

    4 million new direct jobs will be created with the above FDI opening, 6 million new logistics jobs will be created with this FDI opening. That is a total of 100 lakh new jobs in 4 years from now, in a market that is estimated to be $28 billion now in 53 cities, expected to grow to $260 billion by 2020.

    What will these 100 lakh new employees (new jobs created) do with their salaries? The same thing that you are all doing. Rush to the nearest bank for a housing loan, to buy property. Even if only 10% of this 100 lakh newly employed people jump into the real estate buyer's market, u are talking about 10 lakh new potential buyers competing for living space.

    Even if you divide this 10 lakh new buyers by 53 cities listed by the Government, u are talking about a potential 18,900 new people in the buyer's market looking for property in each of these 53 cities. Out of that, even if just 2000 new people want to buy apartments in Sarjapur Road, 2000 in Marathalli, 2000 in Yelahanka, 2000 in KR Puram, prices are bound to rise meteorically - because most projects on an average have just about 180 or 240 apartments each in the mid-range-segment from Rupees 40 to 60 lakhs.

    All the above in a retail market (things that we consume everyday) that is currently now, only $ 28 billion.

    Add to the above, an estimated another 10 lakh new migrants per year (government's own estimate) flooding into Bangalore from all parts of India in search of Employment opportunities. This itself will take Bangalore's population from current 95 lakhs to close to 2 crores easily, by 2020.

    Imagine what will happen in 2020, when the retail market will be $ 260 billion by when 700 new stores would have opened - generating another 200 lakh new jobs, banks flush with money to lend to you and new dreamy eyed newly employed youngsters like you ready to splurge in the real estate market.

    Off Sarjapur Road areas by then would be 5500 psft and the highly ignored C-Anekal belt areas would easily be 3000 psft. Anjanapura, the BDA sites there now selling at 1800 psft, would have touched atleast 6000 psft because by then, Anjanapura will have its own Metro Train connectivity - so also Bommasandra Flyover area, close to Chandapura Circle, with its own Metro Train.

    So, the time to buy is - "Yesterday". Not Today. Not Tomorrow - Not Next Year.
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  • Originally Posted by Sharpj
    What are you smoking? Walmarts and Tescos are not exactly going to throw money at employees.... With a average salary of 25 to 30 k per month who is going to afford those EMIs..

    Retail FDI will take sometime:bab (5):


    Smoking NRIs...:):):)...Trying to get people to invest I guess .
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  • More News on FDI in Retail

    Impact of Retail FDI On Non-Metro Cities
    Posted: 06 Dec 2011 11:56 PM PST
    The potential liberalization of the FDI policy presents retailers with an unprecedented opportunity to expand into Tier II and Tier III cities in the country. The entry of large retailers into in non-metro towns would catalyze more demand from consumers, thereby also boosting demand for retail real estate development. These cities with their untapped clusters have very high potential for retail demand that international brands can exploit. Indeed, this can prove to be a game-changer for the Indian retail sector by making it more competitive and organized in the long run.
    The opening up of stores by international retailers would have a spiraling effect on consumption in Tier II and III cities by generating employment and income opportunities, attracting migrants, increasing demand for real estate spaces and fostering a cosmopolitan culture.
    What is equally important is the fact that the advent of international retail giants will force-feed the support infrastructure that these cities need. This would take the form of warehousing, cold storage and logistics – factors which will open the field for national retailers as well. Apart from that, this infrastructure will boost demand for commercial and residential real estate in these cities, as well.
    International retailers like Wal-Mart and Metro are already operating in the country, and the cash-and-carry segment is already entrenched in smaller cities like Raipur and Ludhiana. There is no doubt that with opening up of FDI, retailers will seek to expand their businesses there and gain the early-mover advantage. That said, we will see a steady line-up of retailers in these cities over the next couple of years – but new brands and players will certainly not make mass entries.
    International hypermarket chains like Wal-Mart, Tesco and Carrefour – apart from national chains such as Big Bazaar and More – will absorb the highest amount of retail real estate in Tier II and Tier III cities. Their first push will be into cities with population bases of one million or more. Though the spread will happen in all regions, it will not be wholesale expansion but rather take place in clusters. The speed of the spread will be decided by how fast the required retail logistics and infrastructure can be put in.

    In terms of retail real estate, the increased demand brought about by the opening up of new business avenues by increased FDI in Indian retail will lead to higher absorption of shopping malls and standalone large format stores in Tier II and III cities. The impact on the demand for and therefore prices of retail real estate in these cities will be positive; demand will be higher for well-managed and quality retail spaces. The crux will remain the augmentation of infrastructure and development of more quality supply. Also, rise in real estate values will ultimately be proportional to consumer demand generated by these spaces. The impact on real estate prices would also depend on the scale and speed of investment in these cities.
    The consumer demographics and socio-economic profile of some of these Tier II and III cities is quite encouraging. Many of them are seeing an increasing proportion of young, income-generating population and growing per capita household incomes. In fact, today consumers are the driving force for change in shopping places all over the country. Therefore, the key to success in the retail industry today lies in influencing consumers’ choices of shopping destinations by providing a more market-focused and unique shopping experience. International retailers responding to the FDI bait will have to customize their stores according to the specific local consumer tastes and needs in the smaller cities.
    In some cities (such as Guwahati) growth in organized shopping spaces has taken place only over the last couple of years. Today, more and more retail brands are entering in these cities, with Big Bazaar, Pantaloon, Westside and Levi’s having paved the way. With the opening up of FDI, more international brands are going to make a beeline for such non-metros.
    Finally, growth will happen in phases. All Tier II and III cities are not at par in terms of demand and growth drivers, and there exists a great deal of variation in the purchasing power and affluence level of these markets. Nevertheless, we are now looking at a new age in Indian retail, where enormous opportunities in smaller towns will open up. Overall, we are going to see augmented investment in back-end retail infrastructure like warehousing and logistics, leading to vastly improved operational efficiencies.
    Pankaj Renjhen, Managing Director – Retail Services
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