Anyone think that the prices of flats will fall 40% from the mid 2007 prices ?
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  • You are right .... but ...

    Originally Posted by ks2071746
    Is this a real estate forum or a bullion forum? Let us stop the SUBJECT of GOLD and come back to real estate discussions.



    Dear ks,

    You are right of course and you would have noticed that at the top of my post I had mentioned that Gold was out of context, but would indulge myself just that once! And that was that.

    In any case, a string of very insightful and interesting posts on Gold from some very knowledgeable people (not including myself here), can only do good for people who are keen on knowing where they can put their money to safeguard it. It might help you too!

    I'm sure, very soon, once all the gyan about Gold gets done, this and other threads will revert back to RE again.

    After all, for many people, RE is like Gold, right? :)
    cheers
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  • Wiseman while agree with you in all your assessments I have to disagree your prediction on Gold. Gold will surely fall like other commodities once the safe haven importance, which is helping keeping Gold defy the trend, is reduced after the global economy stabilises and other assets become less riskier. You seem to be over optimistic on Gold. You can see the Gold's performance for the past 30 years and it is retreating from its peak. Expect gold at US$600 within 1 to 2 years from now
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  • I expect Gold to be around 1500 $ by late 2011.
    I agree like any commodity, gold will also have its bull and bear market. But we are in the start of Gold bull market.
    The point is that how are you going to benfit from this ( how and when to buy and exit).
    Silver is better choice than gold.
    Gold on average returned only 5-6 % returns on a longer span , (ups and downs). Short term can be benficial.

    Again, do your own research.
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  • Gold would reach 1500$ in 2011.

    Gold offers only 5-6 % returns on investment on a longer span ( market ups and downs).

    Like any commodity, gold too has bull and bear market. Gold is in the start of bull market.

    Silver is a better investment than gold.

    Silver has high industial applciations (demand/supply -unbalance) where us gold has only scarcity value.

    How to profit from gold rise , how to liquate and exit are some points to consider before entering gold.

    I am long on Gold , but will exit on short term.

    Do your research before acting.
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  • Originally Posted by vens
    Wiseman while agree with you in all your assessments I have to disagree your prediction on Gold. Gold will surely fall like other commodities once the safe haven importance, which is helping keeping Gold defy the trend, is reduced after the global economy stabilises and other assets become less riskier. You seem to be over optimistic on Gold. You can see the Gold's performance for the past 30 years and it is retreating from its peak. Expect gold at US$600 within 1 to 2 years from now


    I fully agree with you. Gold may come down even to US $ 500-550 in 1-2 years time. Dollar$ supporting Gold is nothing unusual. None can come upto wiseman's or nataraj's experience and knowledge on varying subjects and if you compare ks207.... to any of them, it will be a disgrace to these 2 persons as well as to the one who compares..
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  • Originally Posted by Dollar$
    Here comes new natraj in the form of KS207.Hey man people in the forum have right to discuss about gold,you dont have to discourage anyone.

    The name itself is Indian Real Estate Forum and it should be used for RE subjects only. One will bring Gold, some one Silver, next one Aluminium etc. and the subject will drift away to unrelated ones. Better concentrate fully on RE subject only.
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  • We have already closed this subject ...

    Originally Posted by ks2071746
    The name itself is Indian Real Estate Forum and it should be used for RE subjects only. One will bring Gold, some one Silver, next one Aluminium etc. and the subject will drift away to unrelated ones. Better concentrate fully on RE subject only.


    ks,

    We have already closed this subject after my apologies in 2 separate posts. What else do you want me to do? ;)

    Just one more thing on this subject before I close on Gold - and I do not deal with any other commodity (except Silver), so I will not bring up Aluminium, Molybdenum, Rare Earth (otherwise called Real Estate in prime areas :)), etc.

    Vens, I was not over-optimistic on Gold. I was being over-pesimistic on other assets, especially humongously over-priced Real Estate! :D

    Small but important difference.

    cheers
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  • Let us not be over optimistic or over pessimistic. Let us discuss with our opinions in the forum even though it may appear over pessimistic or over optimistic to others. At least for ourselves it should appear fair and we cannot knowingly be over optimistic or over pessimistic.

    Gold reaching US$3000 or US$6000 as mentioned in your previous posts cannot happen in the next 3 years.

    Rupee although may roll back to its 40 levels slowly after the sudden exodus of foreign funds coms to and end. But Rs.25 no way! Even when the crude oil price was US$40 earlier even at that time Rupee was not US$25. There will be so many forces acting against Rs becoming strong including the government thro RBI as Indian cannot afford to lose its export competitiveness. Inspite of huge fund inflows early this year RBI was selling rupee and buying dollars to make rupee weak not letting it gain above Rs.40. It is easier to make your currency weak since you can sell your currency as much as possible and mop up US$ but it is not so if one wants to strengthen the currency as your reserve of foreign currency will be limited and can be depleted one day.
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  • Some corrections ...

    Originally Posted by vens
    Let us not be over optimistic or over pessimistic. Let us discuss with our opinions in the forum even though it may appear over pessimistic or over optimistic to others. At least for ourselves it should appear fair and we cannot knowingly be over optimistic or over pessimistic.

    Gold reaching US$3000 or US$6000 as mentioned in your previous posts cannot happen in the next 3 years.

    Rupee although may roll back to its 40 levels slowly after the sudden exodus of foreign funds coms to and end. But Rs.25 no way! Even when the crude oil price was US$40 earlier even at that time Rupee was not US$25. There will be so many forces acting against Rs becoming strong including the government thro RBI as Indian cannot afford to lose its export competitiveness. Inspite of huge fund inflows early this year RBI was selling rupee and buying dollars to make rupee weak not letting it gain above Rs.40. It is easier to make your currency weak since you can sell your currency as much as possible and mop up US$ but it is not so if one wants to strengthen the currency as your reserve of foreign currency will be limited and can be depleted one day.



    Dear Vens,

    Here are a few things that you would have said, "No way it can happen" only 1 year back - but they still happened!!!:

    Stock Market crashed from 21000 to 7650!
    Rupee went down to 39 and then shot up to 50+
    Some of the largest Banks in the World collapsed
    GM is about to go into Bankruptcy
    Infosys has stopped hiring :)
    ... list goes on and on

    Of course, we are adjusted to it now, but do you think you would have believed any of these above if I told them to you on 25 Dec 2007? :D


    Here are a few things you think can happen. But they can't!!!:

    - RBI can sell $$$ to keep rupee weak. But it cannot sell Rupee to get it to be strong (no one buys Rupee - only $$$ can be sold OR bought) - you mentioned it in your post, I underlined it.

    - Crude oil rate fluctuation has nothing to do with Rupee-$ exchange rate directly. Crude rates fluctuate due to global demand-supply and other pressures.

    - We lost $$$ through outflow from $315 Billion to $240 Billion in only 5 months. At this run-rate (of around $10 billion per month net outflow), we will be down into mid double digits within 2 years. Just like RBI could not do anything to stop inflow of $$$, it cannot do anything to stop outflow of $$$


    The main thing is you assumption about why I said $$$ will fall to Rs 25 rate. It has nothing to do with us. With the extreme debt and loose money policies being followed, inflation will soar while economy remains depressed. This is called Stagflation or now Stag-Deflation. When this happens, $$$ is expected to go down by 50% (or more!) in value from here, against important world currencies. I'm expecting a lesser drop of $$$ against Rupee, therefore I said 25. Could have said Rs 20 but I expect Rupee too to weaken.

    The only way Rupee will also remain at 35 - 40 is if Rupee falls equally fast as the $$$ against other currencies. This is a fate even more horrible to consider for us!!! In this case, India's fate will be much, much worse and inflation would have gone out of control (think 25% - 40% inflation).

    Some very strange things have happened in the last 11 months. And some even stranger things are likely to happen in the near future.

    One of them could be Gold going to $3000. Why not? ;)

    cheers
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  • Originally Posted by wiseman

    One of them could be Gold going to $3000. Why not? ;)

    cheers


    Wiseman,

    I am not differing on your view, but would like to understand this.

    If there are many jobs losses and no income, how would the demand for the Gold goes up for it reach $3000 / ounce, since nobody would be able
    to buy.

    Am I missing something.

    Ram
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  • Wiseman,

    First of all let me tell you that I would not have said "this would not happen" if you had said all these things one year.

    I have been telling and expecting these things to happen since early 2007. Except near collapse of CITI bank and GM bankruptcy, I had been telling and expecting things to happen anytime for the past two years. I sold my property in late 2007 in Chennai expecting the crash to happen or anticipating at least the appreciation to be less than bank lending rate. But with the backing of foreign funds, developers could not only hold onto prices but also incresed by 30 to 40% since then! Gullible investors buy at increased rates expecting further increase after waiting impatiently due to the forced situation created by buyers because of the holding power of developers with the backing of GULLIBLE foreign RE funds/RECKLESS managers of these funds. While we can expect certain events to happen, it may happen a year early or late for various reasons.
    (Read economic times article in October which predicted BSE Index to touch 6000 levels
    Stock prices reached ugly highs without any logic due to foreign fund flow. I consider most of the stock prices are high even now. If the price of a stock is several times the book value of the company or if the dividend return is not even 50% of bank interest rate on your investment then it is a gamble that someone will buy at better price, not the speculatin of future growth of the company or its future earnings - which is not healthy beyond a point. When the hot money flows in fast it can also flow out fast and the currency has to fall sharply in the short term. Fall in rupee value was expected since Flowing out of hot money was ceratin due to its nature and it noramlly does not happen slowly and gradually. I have seen this in 1997 financial crisis and before while in Bangkok and it is being repeated in India now though for different reasons.

    Infosys has to stop hiring one day. There is a limit for everything! I expected this to happen in latest by 2009/2010 because Infosys (all IT companies) export profit is not taxed at all and they will enjoy this privilege only until 2009 after which government will impose Income tax on export earnings like other export oriented companies . This will curtail their surplus funds and they will learn to be frugal. The way they throw their money on staff without corresponding efficiency(I have seen the work output of some of their staff posted abroad) just because the company gets easy money - you will know this will not last long.

    If you had said about CITI Bank collapse or GM bankruptcy in 2007 I would have said neither NO or Yes because these are based on how they manage, leverage and control of which I had no information. I expected US housing market to crash anytime because this is not something big to predict. This was going to be the repeat of what happend in South Esat asia when real estate growth crossed the limit of catering to consumption. There was no monitoring by US Government. They should have at least made Fixed Interest rate compulsory on long term loans which would have minimised the damage.

    Who told you RBI cannot sell rupees??? I believe you read economic times regularly where you could have seen reports of RBI mopping up dollars to keep the rupee weak when it was breaching 40 levels to make our export competitive. I do not blame you for not being knowledgable on all matters. Without taking it offensive, you should take time to learn how forex market works before making such comments. (I was a banker for over 15 years).

    Who said crude oil demand is related to US$ - Rupee rate?

    All your theories do not work. First of all these are theories. Poor Y.V Reddy kept on increasing interest rate to curtail inflation but failed to achieve the result. Then inflation came down for different resons. Secondly, now loose money policy is now followed by all in the world.


    Dollar is subject to specualtion like other commodities. You can't really predict much except watching people backing dollar after more than 4 years. Have you heard of Soros? So better we do not predict on US$

    When do you expect gold going to US$3000/Oz?
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  • Wiseman,

    I couldn't see my long post in response. So I post again but I will be brief.

    Stcok market crash and rupee depreciating was no wonder and I had been expecting and telling since last year that when FIIS pull out both will happen. FIs are suppossed to pull out after taking the prices very high.

    About banks falling, this may be unknown in India but not in Japan and the west.

    Infosys is not invincible. They have to stop recruiting anyway. Already they are fat and work out of their employees does not correspond to their compensation (as I could see from the output of their employees posted abroad). Their export profit is going to be taxable from 2009/2010. Anyway I was expecting this during that time but the global slowdown expedited the process.

    Your statement that only dollar can be bought or sold is incorrect. RBI had been mopping up dollars by selling rupees when Re was breaching 40 and touching 39. Hope you didn't read economic time that time. I am an ex-banker and I tell you that RBI can sell both Rupee and USdollar in the forex market.

    All these stegflation, loose money are theories in perfect economic situation. Otherwise they remain theories. There are other forces acting. Poor Y.V.Reddy kept on increasing interest rate to curtail inflation but in vain. But now inflation is going down for other reasons not because of his interest rate hike killing growth. Dollar is backed by some speculative forces ( I believe, you know Soros) and is not likely to go down.

    If you want to belive Gold will go to US$3000/Oz it is upto you but the hypothesis is backed by sound logic. After the global uncertainties are over expect it to come down slowly. It is another commodity but with a special "Safe haven" status. After that purpose is served it will be on the sidelines.
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  • Originally Posted by wiseman


    Infosys has stopped hiring :)

    cheers


    Infosys has not stopped hiring. They are sticking to their target of 25,000 this year. May not increase beyond this number.

    ks2071746
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  • down trend in RE

    Originally Posted by maeswaran
    I am getting mails from the flat promotors intimating the price reduction from Rs 3200-3300 per sqft to Rs 2800 per sqft. About 15% reduction.

    That too now repeated calls & e mails, scope for further negotiation


    Dear maeswaran, for the benefit of other members looking for buying a flat, why don't you tell the names of the builders and the area where the flats are under construction?

    ks2071746
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  • Originally Posted by maeswaran
    I am getting mails from the flat promotors intimating the price reduction from Rs 3200-3300 per sqft to Rs 2800 per sqft. About 15% reduction.

    That too now repeated calls & e mails, scope for further negotiation


    Dear Maeswaran, For the benefit of other members looking to book a flat, you should indicate the names of the builders and the area of contruction pl.
    ks2071746
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