Anyone think that the prices of flats will fall 40% from the mid 2007 prices ?
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  • Fancy Pricing?

    I had a look at the advt.The property is on resale and is a house built 7 years ago with 880 sqft land and 1500 sqft builtup.I am not sure if both the advt, the one quoting 95L and the other quoting 58L only for the land is for the same property.

    Nevertheless, I am sure the property which was quoted 95L was built for less than 58 Lakhs.My estimate is that it would have been built and sold at the cost of around 35-40Lakhs only; seven years back.

    The seller is surely making a distress sale and trying to book as much profit as possible by quoting less than the market price and pull out before the crash happens and erodes the asset of its original value.

    We can find lots of such instances for resale property.

    We can conclude the price crash has started only if new property are sold below the cost price.Until then the discounts, special offers etc will remain confined only to the negotiation table and nothings official.

    Builders are desperate to avoid doing so openly and are trying everything they can to keep the price fall under their wraps.

    There is a new property from a reputed builder in thoraipakkam which initially had a plan of one apartment per floor with 2000 sqft.They quoted 5500 Rs/sqft.Due to poor response, they redrew the plan and split it into 2 apartments per floor of 1000 sqft each and are now quoting 3900 Rs/sqft for the same.Also, the luxury furnishing and amneties have been replaced with basic ones in the specification.

    Assuming the total area is 6000 sqft, the net value is now 2 Crores 34 Lakhs as against the earlier price of 3 Crores 30 Lakhs.The builder surely seems to be targeting the Below 50L segment.

    Is this a price correction of 30%? or just a consquence of fancy pricing?

    Forum members, your valuable comments please.
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  • All the realestate bears thinking they are WISE!! US treasury bills have fallen to 0% interest and even traded at -ve interest. In such a situation where does one invest his money. Realestate and Stocks. In other words the bottom is clear. So fools who want to sell out their hard earned property (read land and building...not some silly new flats!) can only play into Wiseman's cartel's hands. That guy is really fooling around.
    Beware, if you sold land today in Chennai for 50L, I bet you wont get it back for 1C next year same time. Best of luck.
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  • Hey Natrajg007, you came again with your fancy theories.
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  • Nice to have you back, Natraj!

    Nabishek, You are probably right.

    Look at it this way. If thishouse was built for Rs 35 lakhs 7 years ago, add up the interest on sunk cost and the inflation-adjusted cost of the house would still be in the range of the price that is being quoted.

    Your comment:
    Is this a price correction of 30%? or just a consquence of fancy pricing?

    It is both. First came the fancy pricing. Then, when reality is beginning to strike, comes the price correction :)

    Natraj, happy to have you back. For every bear like me looking to beat down the price to "realistic" levels, there needs to be a bull like you looking for unrealistic prices :D.

    Time will tell us who is right. Actually I too am a long-term bull. But the only difference between our respective outlook is, first I'm looking for a significant fall to affordable levels. Then I expect human greed (like yours) to take up the price again to unrealistic levels where I will exit into cash and hold on till realistic prices are back again - this happens every 7 years or so.

    And I don't need a cartel to make this happen. Just leave it to hyper-greedy guys who are always looking for mega profits and they will do it all by themselves :D.

    In your case, you keep looking for prices to go up, up and away forever.

    Time will tell. Keep posting.

    Everybody: ILO just came on the news and is talking about India facing a significant downturn. Their worry is that the Fiscal Stimulus is only helping the producers. Where is the stimulus / protection for the unorganised sector? Since this is the weakest sector and the one most likely to be hurt.

    cheers
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  • In THE HINDU, this saturday, one builder has given big ad.

    Single bed flat Rs 12.5 lakhs and 3 bed Rs 20 Lakhs on OMR near SSN college.

    Though location is far, areas nearby were quoted much higher earlier.

    This shows another down fall of prices
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  • Has anybody checked 99acres for the ad ?

    Originally Posted by kar27us
    a month ago an independent house in annanagar with 880 sqft land and building wa quoted by a broker for 90 lacs and the same broker now quoting a price for 58 lacs.you can see the drop.the name of the broker is sk estates and the ad is in 99acres.


    I am unable to locate the ad in 99 acres,i dont think it is there, can you pls give me the property ID.and have you called the brokers sk agents to acertain the facts? (there might be an error in posting or the property migth be litigated)i dont think so,this seems like the sms asking for blood donors, to be forwarded. till date i have not been able to reach the number given(i am a part of a blood donors group).
    PEOPLE check the facts and comment, v want facts not hearsay.
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  • you must visit the site

    Originally Posted by maeswaran
    In THE HINDU, this saturday, one builder has given big ad.

    Single bed flat Rs 12.5 lakhs and 3 bed Rs 20 Lakhs on OMR near SSN college.

    Though location is far, areas nearby were quoted much higher earlier.

    This shows another down fall of prices


    I had a look at the location a friend dropped me and had to run an errand.
    I paid rs 300 for an auto to drop me at adyar. yes good for a one day picnic.
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  • Originally Posted by Natarajg007
    All the realestate bears thinking they are WISE!! US treasury bills have fallen to 0% interest and even traded at -ve interest. In such a situation where does one invest his money. Realestate and Stocks. In other words the bottom is clear. So fools who want to sell out their hard earned property (read land and building...not some silly new flats!) can only play into Wiseman's cartel's hands. That guy is really fooling around.
    Beware, if you sold land today in Chennai for 50L, I bet you wont get it back for 1C next year same time. Best of luck.


    Hey Nataraj,
    When did you come out of hospital? Is your treatment already over?
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  • Lets not get personal again, friends :)

    Originally Posted by strongsville
    Hey Nataraj,
    When did you come out of hospital? Is your treatment already over?


    All you friends of mine who share my views - and therefore are part of the "bear cartel" which is so powerful as to crash prices in Chennai just by showing our faces!

    Please do not get personal. Let our analysis - and the power of common sense (which says, like vens, that prices are still way too high) - allow prices to gravitate to their realistic levels, whatever they may be.

    Natraj is welcome to his opinion, and I expect it to be hyper-bullish since he probably holds a lot of real estate he would like to dump for a profit.

    Let us all bring forth our respective opinions in good taste.:)

    cheers
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  • Originally Posted by wiseman
    All you friends of mine who share my views - and therefore are part of the "bear cartel" which is so powerful as to crash prices in Chennai just by showing our faces!

    Please do not get personal. Let our analysis - and the power of common sense (which says, like vens, that prices are still way too high) - allow prices to gravitate to their realistic levels, whatever they may be.

    Natraj is welcome to his opinion, and I expect it to be hyper-bullish since he probably holds a lot of real estate he would like to dump for a profit.

    Let us all bring forth our respective opinions in good taste.:)

    cheers



    Wiseman,
    I agree 100% with you. If someone writes with common sense then its ok. But how should we deal with someone like Nataraj who write NONSENSE?

    Even i can talk like Nataraj and say RE will appreciate another 500% and still there is room for growth. If i support my theory with any data, then that will make sense to everyone. Will i get any respect if i keep barking that RE will appreciate another 200%, 500% and 1000 times? I don't think so.
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  • So, here is an unbeatable offer for Natraj! Sure bet!

    Originally Posted by strongsville
    Wiseman,
    I agree 100% with you. If someone writes with common sense then its ok. But how should we deal with someone like Nataraj who write NONSENSE?

    Even i can talk like Nataraj and say RE will appreciate another 500% and still there is room for growth. If i support my theory with any data, then that will make sense to everyone. Will i get any respect if i keep barking that RE will appreciate another 200%, 500% and 1000 times? I don't think so.



    Dear Strongsville,

    I am told that I am a very fair man! So, since he thinks it will go 200% up and I think it will go down, here is an unbeatable offer from me to him! ;)

    I have land in my possession that I want to sell. But since Nats is so bullish, I thought up a scheme to have my cake and eat it too. I will loan the land to Nats to use it for an option trade.

    Nats will deposit one third of the price of 2 years later (which is todays full price). This is non-refundable and makes up the option premium - the fee to take part in the trade. Then he will have this land as a loan for 2 years. On completing 2 years, he will sell it for 200% profit. At that time, he will pay me todays price and take possession of the land and then transfer it to the ultimate buyer.

    So, I get my todays full price, in addition I get 100% profit (as reward for loaning him the land) and he gets the other 100% (as profit for taking such a daring gamble! :)). Of course, the poor buyer gets to keep the land!!! :D

    In case the 200% does not materialise, Nats simply tears up the loan papers and we go our way. Of course he does not get refund of the 100% of current prices since that was the option premium to participate in this deal which is 33% premium - a reasonable market rate for a 2 year holding. In fact on this 33% deposit a 100% profit will amount to a 333% gain in 2 years - a humongous rate of return!!!.

    Fair deal? This is the best way to respond to bullish calls for 200% rise in 2 years, what! :D

    Do you think he will bite this fantastic deal? :p

    cheers
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  • Wow..Is Wallstreet is better than RE in Chennai!!!

    Regarding Wiseman's deal...Unbelievable tactic..
    I am not a broker, just joined today to understand the market. In a way I am happy about possible price correction, 'cos 5 years back I missed the bus and I have dream location to buy land and build house.. please don't make RE a gamble.
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  • Originally Posted by wiseman
    Dear Strongsville,

    I am told that I am a very fair man! So, since he thinks it will go 200% up and I think it will go down, here is an unbeatable offer from me to him! ;)

    I have land in my possession that I want to sell. But since Nats is so bullish, I thought up a scheme to have my cake and eat it too. I will loan the land to Nats to use it for an option trade.

    Nats will deposit one third of the price of 2 years later (which is todays full price). This is non-refundable and makes up the option premium - the fee to take part in the trade. Then he will have this land as a loan for 2 years. On completing 2 years, he will sell it for 200% profit. At that time, he will pay me todays price and take possession of the land and then transfer it to the ultimate buyer.

    So, I get my todays full price, in addition I get 100% profit (as reward for loaning him the land) and he gets the other 100% (as profit for taking such a daring gamble! :)). Of course, the poor buyer gets to keep the land!!! :D

    In case the 200% does not materialise, Nats simply tears up the loan papers and we go our way. Of course he does not get refund of the 100% of current prices since that was the option premium to participate in this deal which is 33% premium - a reasonable market rate for a 2 year holding. In fact on this 33% deposit a 100% profit will amount to a 333% gain in 2 years - a humongous rate of return!!!.

    Fair deal? This is the best way to respond to bullish calls for 200% rise in 2 years, what! :D

    Do you think he will bite this fantastic deal? :p

    cheers


    Wonderful Wiseman,
    Do you think Nataraj will understand all these things? I think he is still trying to understand your numbers.
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  • My take :

    Things started going wrong in Russia when it started a war with Georgia. Foreign Investors started pulling money out of Russia immediately after the war. Russian stocks and Rouble was on the verge of collapsing. Credit Crisis made things worse from September. Russian stock exchange was closed many times since.

    Indian economy is slightly different though. No research has yet suggested that India may enter a recession. There is a good chance that growth will be very low(below 5%). It is not going to be 7% - projected by the government.

    Manufacturing output in India has crashed the most in 15 years. It has caught many people by surprise. It is calm only on the surface, but trouble is brewing for the economy beneath it.

    Thanks,
    Salim.
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  • wiseman vs nataraj

    Originally Posted by strongsville
    Hey Nataraj,
    When did you come out of hospital? Is your treatment already over?


    So the fight never ends? Like India vs Pakistan or LTTE vs Srilankan Army? It has started again after a while. As long as the orguments are healthy and not personal, it is welcome.

    ks2071746:D:):p
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