Hi
I am interested in knowing the prevailing land rates for 1 ground in sholinganallur and pallikaranai.Any thoughts would be much appreciated.
Thanks
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  • Originally Posted by wiseman
    Nats,

    Please understand carefully the things I say:

    1. I said that RE is in medium term downward move (I did not say prices will fall altogether in one single day!)

    2. I said that in the last 4-5 years prices have become completely unaffordable (I did not say land is not a good investment! In fact, I clearly said, this is the order of attractiveness - Stocks, Land/Property, Gold, then other instruments - over the long term and I have long-term analysis to prove it)

    3. A decline of 12% to 17% (depending in which way you take the figures) is still a BIG decline! This is because, unlike any other investment vehicle, RE is bought with a 5:1 upto a 10:1 leverage. This means, if there is a 1% up move you get a 10% ROI. If there is a 10% downmove, you get wiped out since your equity and the decline are equal. Can you imagine? A 10% decline can wipe out new buyers. A 20% down move can wipe out most buyers who have bought in last 2-3 years.

    This decline in Carborundum we are talking about is in that range. So, most buyers will be in technical default with this kind of decline. Lets not pussyfoot around on that count!!!

    It is definitely a dangerous situation for them. They put in all their life savings. Price declines by 20% (we are nearly there). Buyer loses job. Goes into default for 3 months. Bank reposseses. With zero equity, buyer loses life savings. According to Corporation Bank in Bangalore, around 10% loan takers are in default in Bangalore. Also Deccan Herald in Bangalore reports market is telling them that in some cases earlier quotes for Rs 85 lakhs is now being quoted for Rs 50 - 55 Lakhs (for the record these are all uncorroborated reports in newspapers, just like the Hindu report). This is a 35% to 40% drop.

    So, as per your own statement, since Chennai lags behind Bangalore, Chennai should be in for this treatment soon???

    4. I will continue to be a bear and you will continue to be a bull. I do not need your permission to be a bear on this forum. I have not asked you not to be a bull! So, why are you asking me not to be a bear? Unless you have an ulterior motive to supress bearish talk in this forum !!!

    5. Going by the Price to Salary (affordability index) either salaries have to catch up with price by going up 5 times from today's level, or prices have to come down by around 40% average and in some extreme cases all the way to 80% down.

    I stand by this from the beginning unwaveringly. And I also have the timeframe of 2010 - 2012 for this drop to happen (I may be surprised by this happening earlier). So, this is a long-drawn story.

    I still don't understand one thing. Normally a bullish person will exort others to buy telling them that he too is buying and what a profit he is making.

    Isn't it strange that you, a seemingly very bullish person, is asking everyone to buy, but in the same breath is selling your property to them; so you are a seller in this market. This is the only time I have seen a bullish seller in the market!!! :D

    Is there a rational explanation to this?

    thanks for being such a sport and being nice to me for once!

    cheers

    Wiseman, For once you spoke sort of logically. I appreciate it. First regarding whether I am a seller. I am an investor of yore. As I mentioned earlier, at best I am trying to transfer property from Chennai to Bangalore, not exiting the market or entering it. Since you have been sane and toned to low arrogance level, for once, let me answer you in a simple way.
    1. Everybody knows that RE prices wont fall in a day.
    2. Unaffordable is again a relative statement. To whom is the question. In 2005 when it went up many thought it was the top, but in 2008 they have been made to feel bad, especially those who sold out in 2005. Markets are not based on Fundamentals as most MBAs are ingrained to think. Technicals manage the market, fundamentals let you take a good view but not time the market any bit. So I wont agree to unaffordable. Now you have a tendency to argue about 3Cr or 2Cr property. There are many who are buying Porche, Audi and Bentleys in India leave alone that Rolce Royce is round the corner. So if you think that the Mami in Mylapore will continue to decide the price of land there, it is unlikely. She might one day sell out and move to Pallikaranai and the Rolcey will step in.
    3. This wiped out funda of yours is where I terribly disagree with you. On one side you are talking about fundamentals (as in 2 above) but now you are talking like a stock market trader. If I bought RE for 1cr and pay an EMI of 1L or whatever, I am not really speculating. U r talking about the loan:own money ratio, but that is not speculation. I own the RE that is why I buy it. U might compare with I own RIL or MS but they are different. In RE I enjoy the flat, land whatever. There is a physical benefit in RE not a paper (as in those days) or demat feeling. Many buy RE to live, not to speculate. Why am I kicking up NRIs? Because to them Indian RE is a market to trade. I dont think they control much of Chennai RE any bit. The Chennaite buys a flat to live. Now dont confuse this with job losses. Infact job loss is one thing that Indians have no idea about and they are learning it just now. So that has nothing to do with leveraging. One thing is for sure. In 2002, even if I took a loan of 2 years salary I would have bought the best house (not flat) in Mylapore or T.Nagar. I did not believe in loans. I dont ask others to take loans either, but well those who take loans play by their rules. SO are u telling dont take loans, OR are u telling that they are wrong to take loans now. THe latter is your own ad hoc conclusion based on RE will fall. So dont use the wrong word LEVERAGING. That is absolutely incorrect statement.
    All I wanted to highlight in Carborondum case is that RE prices in a place as off track as Pallikaranai is around 1C a ground and so RE is really not fallen one bit in Chennai. To me if a builder quoted 3200psft in Oct for a new construction and then changed it to 2900psft it means that the particular builder is interested in losing some profit (read...he is in NO LOSS whatsoever as I have explained a million times on this board!) as he wants to rollover his money. This is due to tighter financial markets which I dont disagree. What I disagree is your bear call that prices are falling and will fall. Will fall can change any minute that liquidity improves even a bit as the buider will suddenly jack it to 3500psft. So u may actually be preveting a guy from entering the market when he could rather than when he cant, and I am talking about a genuine Chennaite buyer, not some silly NRI Speculator who can go to hell!
    4. Frankly I am not asking you to stop writing. I am trying to hit on your head that your bear views are wrong. On the other hand it looks like you writing bear and I writing bull keeps this forum doing well and I aint sure I want to keep writing here for long as it serves no purpose to me. Infact that is why I question you and whether you are paid to write here. Incidentally some fellow did throw a private message to me some 3 months back on this forum asking me if I wanted to be a paid writer. So I think such stuff does exist. I am so far not paid to write here!!!
    5. I dont agree one bit with your affordability index. U must be using an American index. In India as I have written before, people buy realestate as an investment. So they pawn jewellery, put their dad's retirement savings, borrow from pawn brokers to anyone and buy! THis is not today, it existed from 60s and 70s.
    Finally your being bearish is not of much concern to me. Ur being bearish without logic hurts and that is what I question. I appreciate your message above for leading into a healthy argument, however I dont think your logical reasoning is up to the mark. I am not questioning your logical abilities, rather I feel you are either too biased or you are having to write that way for other pecuniary reasons. I for one have no gains by the rise or fall as I dont use my RE to gain or lose from. As I have mentioned the last property I bought is where I reside and unusually it is an apartment. This was in 1996. Rest are all lands and they are all pre 1996. So any change in price either way will mean very little to me except book keeping. Remember, if I sell a property for 3Cr, the worst problem in Chennai is that I will get 2Cr is black and I cant even enjoy it. And the typical Chennai registrar wont let even the most honest buyer to register at 3Cr since the neighbours in that locality will kick his arse to be precise. If you dont know this then check it out.
    Finally Wiseman, atleast tell us where u reside. If you reside in US and are speculating in Chennai then let us know it. Dont try to hide this fact as u did with the postgraduate degree college info. It does not talk highly of you, since u r claiming to know all but dont even want to tell us where u live and where u studied. And u mentioned somewhere that u want to meet me the next time u r in Chennai. I live in Bangalore and I will have to come and meet u in Chennai if I so choose to! GOTCHA?
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  • good change

    Goooood.

    Lots of change in both these mens writings

    Keep it up friends.

    Thanks

    Chataara
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  • Hope u also change and give ur comments to people impartially! GO and write to What the heck. Dont expect me to write to him with P and S! LOL!
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  • Originally Posted by Natarajg007
    Hope u also change and give ur comments to people impartially! GO and write to What the heck. Dont expect me to write to him with P and S! LOL!


    I am always impartial.

    Infact i had appreciated you telling "one man army" in another thread.

    You should not doubt everybody if they tell something against your view.

    Since this forum is turning into chaos, I told in general "Dont shout". I told this to everyone who made unnecessary comments.

    If this comment is irritating you, its not my mistake.

    thanks

    chataara
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  • Carboroundaum deal was in last year.

    If they are selling it now, it will not go even 70% of sold value.

    But in long term it has value. May be after 5 years
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  • Paid Writer

    Originally Posted by Natarajg007

    4. Frankly I am not asking you to stop writing. I am trying to hit on your head that your bear views are wrong. On the other hand it looks like you writing bear and I writing bull keeps this forum doing well and I aint sure I want to keep writing here for long as it serves no purpose to me. Infact that is why I question you and whether you are paid to write here. Incidentally some fellow did throw a private message to me some 3 months back on this forum asking me if I wanted to be a paid writer. So I think such stuff does exist. I am so far not paid to write here!!!


    Mr Natraj Sir ,

    As you are the one who has posted more number of posts supporting RE Investments(ignoring all the facts/analysis and keeping aside all the personnal attacks) , there are chances that you would have got pvt message to keep writing . Of late RE being little corporatised(not organised) and they want to sell their projects & would have thought people like you can make people to (just)beleive RE is still going high.

    More and More people become investment-saavy & study the markets(not only RE) .People do more analysis to know the real worth of the money and ROI in current and future economic terms.

    Also people like Wiseman are enlightening people of the current & future economic outlook . I do not think RE companies will cherish the contents of Wiseman's posts and appraoch him to become paid writter. Rather all the individuals planning to buy a house to stay(not for investment) would love to see more of Wiseman's post so that everyone knows the reality that the current prices are not worthy .

    For the facts and stats with which Wiseman posts his information , if he is in the other camp , he would have been offered by many RE Companies to become a paid writter with 100 times of amount of that would be offered to a normal writters.
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  • Originally Posted by Nataraajg007
    Carboroundaum deal was in last year.

    If they are selling it now, it will not go even 70% of sold value.

    But in long term it has value. May be after 5 years


    Is it nataraj, the genius?

    This nataraj - junior is more realistic and practical

    Thanks

    chataara
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  • At last. Some pattern to the chaos :)

    Originally Posted by Natarajg007
    Wiseman, For once you spoke sort of logically. I appreciate it. First regarding whether I am a seller. I am an investor of yore. As I mentioned earlier, at best I am trying to transfer property from Chennai to Bangalore, not exiting the market or entering it. Since you have been sane and toned to low arrogance level, for once, let me answer you in a simple way.

    Finally Wiseman, atleast tell us where u reside. If you reside in US and are speculating in Chennai then let us know it. Dont try to hide this fact as u did with the postgraduate degree college info. It does not talk highly of you, since u r claiming to know all but dont even want to tell us where u live and where u studied. And u mentioned somewhere that u want to meet me the next time u r in Chennai. I live in Bangalore and I will have to come and meet u in Chennai if I so choose to! GOTCHA?



    Hi Nats,

    First of all, I have not been arrogant! It is my responses to your arrogance that is being perceived by you to be so. In fact, you will notice throughout my posts that, though people may disagree with me, their posts to me are always polite. Because I am polite and my English cannot be faulted for bad words, etc. So, you might learn something from that!!! :)

    Second, it should not matter where I'm located. Its a very immature thing to stereotype people - all NRIs are speculators, etc. In fact, the very fact that you bought more land than you required and are now trying to sell it off also puts you squarely in the realm of "speculator" - so why point one finger at NRIs when 3 more are pointing at you? I will keep you guessing about where I really am located, because this is an immaterial parameter.

    Third, you have come around to exactly what I have been saying from the beginning without wavering even once. Now, if you tell me that I have not been logical, since I tell the same thing from the beginning, I should also not be logical now? How is it that suddenly I have turned from illogical to logical, even though I'm saying the same thing? How logical is that?

    If you tell us now that Carborundum deal was done last year and that now it won't even fetch 70% of that price, does this not mean that you are agreeing to the fact that 30% drop from last year's prices are already in? What do you think I have been saying all along?

    My statements were very clear and I repeat it for your benefit so that you do not have any doubts about my stand henceforth.

    The recession, which is fast turning into depression in the US - and which will turn into a global depression - will last a long, long time and will be very, very deep!!!! This time period has not been seen by any one of us in our lifetime. So, do not make the mistake of comparing this to the 2000 or any other recession in living memory. This will be a serious mistake.

    The latest estimate of loss of wealth in 2008 alone in the US is $ 10 Trillion!!! To compare it, it is equal to 10 times the GDP of India in its best year. The Global Economy is around $ 45 Trillion. This loss is enormous and it will take many years to recoup it. 2009 is estimated to have an equally bad or even more serious impact on the World Economy.

    As Manoj seems to be the only one to have recognised this point (others may have too), the pain in India has just begun. The serious pain is coming in 2009 and probably in 2010. Many. many people stand to lose their salaries (significantly) or their jobs. I have no pleasure in saying this.

    Contrary to what you say, it is the Export sector (IT is still the significant leader) that contributes to 20% of our GDP. Even more importantly, the multiplier effect means this impact - directly and indirectly - probably contributes to double that at least. Are you saying that this segment, which contributes to 40% of the economy and probably all the surplus that goes into conspicuous consumption has only marginal effect on RE? Are you serious? Don't say things that will make people laugh at you. Ask any serious economist, CA or people who are supposed to know these things before saying things like its the common man who is making this boom happen. Have any data to support it?

    Please note that the real visible impact of the US recession was seen only from Oct onwards. Within 2.5 months the mood has darkened considerably. And we are already starting to call the bottom only 2 months since the real slide began. You really believe this is a 2000-type shallow recession, don't you? Well that one was shallow because Greenspan started the RE bubble after dropping interest rates to 0.75% and flooding the economy with cash.

    Today, after dropping to 0.25% (practically ZERO), and flooding the economy with many, many times more cash directly injecting it into collapsing companies, there is no sign at all of any kind of recovery. This alone must warn you about how serious the condition of the patient is. This patient is in deep coma, bleeding from almost every pore in the body and every drop of blood injected is being consumed and destroyed. Patient is not even stabilised. And you are saying that he will walk out tomorrow? Well ...!

    So, this is my conclusion:

    Anybody knows that eventually, in the long run, property will go up. In fact, any asset or commodity will go up. Actually, its not the asset going up. Its mostly the currency going down.

    As some wag said, in the long run we are all dead. So no need to discuss.

    But we are talking about people trying to buy assets without sufficient financial strength. To advice them to buy recklessly is an irresponsible act, nearing criminal. Being in Bangalore you know the situation. Do not think that the virus that's hit bangalore will not hit Chennai or any of the other places.

    Many of these people face a real danger of losing al their savings if they act recklessly and load up on huge amounts of debt. Comparing them to people who buy Audis and Mercs is irresponsible. Have you bought an Audi lately?

    I too believe that property will do well in the long run (as most assets will in India). I want youngsters to buy land / flats when it is a real bargain! Today, by no means is it anywhere near affordable. And the meaning of affordable is simply that. After paying off you EMIs you still have enough to save as well as eat comfortably.

    In my opinion real bargains will come in late 2009 and well into 2010 and maybe longer too. And prices will have fallen from 2007 peak to anywhere from 40% (this will be average fall in most places) to as high as 80%. I continue to stand by this. And I will be a heavy buyer when drops of 50% + are seen in localities of my choice. Till then I will wait patiently, accumulating cash.

    All the best on your strategies. May the best argument win. This will be seen only in 2009-2010.

    cheers
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  • 2009 will see further down fall of IT and real estate market.

    Buyers have to wait and sellers have to rush
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  • Originally Posted by Nataraajg007
    Carboroundaum deal was in last year.

    If they are selling it now, it will not go even 70% of sold value.

    But in long term it has value. May be after 5 years

    What is last year you CLOWN?
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  • Originally Posted by sethugm
    Mr Natraj Sir ,

    As you are the one who has posted more number of posts supporting RE Investments(ignoring all the facts/analysis and keeping aside all the personnal attacks) , there are chances that you would have got pvt message to keep writing . Of late RE being little corporatised(not organised) and they want to sell their projects & would have thought people like you can make people to (just)beleive RE is still going high.

    More and More people become investment-saavy & study the markets(not only RE) .People do more analysis to know the real worth of the money and ROI in current and future economic terms.

    Also people like Wiseman are enlightening people of the current & future economic outlook . I do not think RE companies will cherish the contents of Wiseman's posts and appraoch him to become paid writter. Rather all the individuals planning to buy a house to stay(not for investment) would love to see more of Wiseman's post so that everyone knows the reality that the current prices are not worthy .

    For the facts and stats with which Wiseman posts his information , if he is in the other camp , he would have been offered by many RE Companies to become a paid writter with 100 times of amount of that would be offered to a normal writters.

    Sethu...If you really can find me someone to pay for me to write on the Bull camp...please do. It will make my wasted effort in educating people on REALITY of REALTY more worthwhile to me.
    Till then what I write is for FREE. So please do the needful...ROTFL.
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  • Paid Writer

    Originally Posted by Natarajg007
    Sethu...If you really can find me someone to pay for me to write on the Bull camp...please do. It will make my wasted effort in educating people on REALITY of REALTY more worthwhile to me.
    Till then what I write is for FREE. So please do the needful...ROTFL.


    I dont think anyone will pay for the substance in your writting .

    But they may pay for your courage to keep saying 1C 2C 3C with out any stats and analysis . I have never seen you quoting any valid arguments or countered with any economic data . You write based on your own imagination.
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  • Originally Posted by chataara
    I am always impartial.

    Infact i had appreciated you telling "one man army" in another thread.

    You should not doubt everybody if they tell something against your view.

    Since this forum is turning into chaos, I told in general "Dont shout". I told this to everyone who made unnecessary comments.

    If this comment is irritating you, its not my mistake.

    thanks

    chataara

    Hi Guys, I am new to this forum. its very interesting to read this post. so what was the end of this discussion, is the realty price is falling in chennai or not?. i am interested in this particular issue, i had just seen a 1000 sqft land in pallikaranai behind the "More for you" supermarket (half km from the main road). the land owner quoting a Rs.2200 ( total of 22 lacs for the plot) per sqft. give your comments, is it worth buying at this rate? will it go down in coming months?
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