Hi,

I heard through my friends that property price is chennai is going down drastically. Does any one have an idea about this. I am a NRI. I recently bought a flat in Velacherry. Will the price go down more?

Thanks.
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  • I missed it. I was referring to HARRY 1979 for his sane views in my earlier post.
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  • Hi Natrajg007,

    Everybody has their views, so as Mr. Harry 1979. Well, I have certain things to confirm with you.

    1. I have never heared of software engg earning 2K - 5K in 2004. I myself a MBA passout in 2004, whereas we are earning 7k/month and software guys 14k/month. I think 2k should be salary of 90's

    2. Now it's official that there will be no bonus, no increments and promotions for next 1 year in corporate India. Do you think people will invest in this uncertain times. If there is no demand, how do you expect prices to be stable without falling?

    3. Unitech India's second biggest real estate firm has put their delhi office and their hotel projects on sale. Does this mean a possitive move? Please correct if I'm wrong.
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  • Originally Posted by Natarajg007
    Someone sane on this board. I appreciate what you write. Wiseman is the typical bear and he will have to say what he is saying. Ofcourse one NRI from USA telling me that price falling to 2004 levels since that is the case in USA does not understand anything. In India, in Bangalore in 2004 prices of land shot almost 5 times in NO TIME. Salaries in India have gone up almost 2 to 4 times in last 4 years. So for 2004 prices to reappear in India salary of fresh software engineers has to come to Rs 2K to Rs 5K. If that happens then all this logic can happen. A physician in India in 2003 would earn a salary of Rs 10K to 15k, not sure what it is today. It wont matter if realestate crashed to 2004 levels if salaries crashed that way.
    Unfortunately all these USA, Australia and INDIA comparisons are terribly wrong. In India during crashes, rupee will be depreciated badly. So I will imagine a land costing 1crore today will probably fall to 80L but in USD terms will come crashing. That is because 1:40 has become 1:50 in just 1 month and I wont be surprised by 1:200 in 5 years if Indian govt does not manage it. So Indian Indian Investor meaning Indian living in India investing in India will not have much to worry. Ofcourse my friendly NRIs whose behaviour is unpredictable can always confuse themselves and others in their own special style.


    Nataraj, how ignorant you are?. Salary of SW Engineers has to come to 2K to 5K rupees in order to reach 2004 price??? Where in the world are you? Did you know the salary of SW engineers back in Mid 90's?

    My first month salary back in 1997 was Rs 11,000 and slowly it has increased upto 22K by mid 2000. I was just a software consultant at that time. I hope you know the actual RE price at that time in Chennai. Also rupee vs dollar value was 1:48 during the 2001 and 2002 period. And you know the price of RE at that time also.

    RE values peaked during 2003-2007 period. If you know the real reason for this exorbitant price please share with us. Please provide the logical/meaningful reason for this inflated price and tell us how this high price will sustain for ever. I would like to hear from you.

    What extra ordinary thing happend in India during 2003-2007 in order to see such a huge growth in RE sector? What happend during this period that never happend in India before this boom?

    Those who are bearish in this thread shown/explained why we can not sustain this growth. We have supported our theory by giving examples.

    Can you do the same so that we can also learn/understand that we are missing. Please guide us.

    Note: Every one is talking about development, this, that in India. Then why Tamil Nadu govt. is not able to fix the power shortage problem? What happend to the so called development? This is a small example of development in India. Forget about other infrastructure related issue.
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  • Originally Posted by Natarajg007
    Someone sane on this board. I appreciate what you write. Wiseman is the typical bear and he will have to say what he is saying. Ofcourse one NRI from USA telling me that price falling to 2004 levels since that is the case in USA does not understand anything. In India, in Bangalore in 2004 prices of land shot almost 5 times in NO TIME. Salaries in India have gone up almost 2 to 4 times in last 4 years. So for 2004 prices to reappear in India salary of fresh software engineers has to come to Rs 2K to Rs 5K. If that happens then all this logic can happen. A physician in India in 2003 would earn a salary of Rs 10K to 15k, not sure what it is today. It wont matter if realestate crashed to 2004 levels if salaries crashed that way.
    Unfortunately all these USA, Australia and INDIA comparisons are terribly wrong. In India during crashes, rupee will be depreciated badly. So I will imagine a land costing 1crore today will probably fall to 80L but in USD terms will come crashing. That is because 1:40 has become 1:50 in just 1 month and I wont be surprised by 1:200 in 5 years if Indian govt does not manage it. So Indian Indian Investor meaning Indian living in India investing in India will not have much to worry. Ofcourse my friendly NRIs whose behaviour is unpredictable can always confuse themselves and others in their own special style.


    Nataraj, Don't you think Wiseman is talking real wisely? Don't you think what he says is reasonable, acceptabale and logical with accurate data? Can you explain your opinion more logically and reasonably with accurate data?

    In my opinion, Wiseman is really wise and he must be possesing excess knowledge and experience in the world economy.

    I am sure he is not like us who just started learning economy 101.
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  • Why are we discussing my wisdom? Thats not important :)

    Originally Posted by strongsville
    Nataraj, Don't you think Wiseman is talking real wisely? Don't you think what he says is reasonable, acceptabale and logical with accurate data? Can you explain your opinion more logically and reasonably with accurate data?

    In my opinion, Wiseman is really wise and he must be possesing excess knowledge and experience in the world economy.

    I am sure he is not like us who just started learning economy 101.



    Hi folks,

    With age and experience comes wisdom. Of course not always, only when people learn from the mistakes that we make and see others making.

    So, after my fair share of mistakes (some very costly ones), I have learnt that overconfidence is the worst thing to have. Also arrogance in ones own smartness is equally bad.

    One other major thing to be avoided is not to become blind to reality because we made a mistake and do not want to own up and change.

    Nataraj. I do not think I'm so powerful that I have formed a gang to be bearish about RE and verbally beat prices down. Such things do not happen even if you have the money power of a Mukesh Ambani.

    Secondly, I can't beat my arguments into other's heads. I present my case. Only if others then observe the situation themselves and see some merit in my arguments, they will accept. So, its not as if I have hypnotised them into chanting "wiseman, wiseman!" :D

    Strongsville. Some of us have seen reality and have formed an opinion for better or worse. Its just that Nataraj has to experience difficulties first before he also joins us in our view. Just a matter of timing :D. And maybe some avoidable losses.

    No offense, Nataraj. Time will tell. And if I'm proven wrong I will change even before you tell me about it ;).

    Oh, btw, prices will definitely go even below 2004, IMO!

    And Sridhar. I did my MBA in 1985 from one of the top 5 schools (in that year it was #2 ahead of IIM, Cal). And I got a job as Exec. Assistant to one of the biggest Software persons in India today. The salary was 3.5k only for what was one of the top jobs then. In 1995 salary had already reached 40k. In 1999 it was 150k. Beyond that you can speculate! Have seen the software business for 23 years. Even then, I'm fearful this time :D.

    Nataraj may think I'm a bear. But I made my biggest money being a bull all these years. But when its time to be a bear, its time to stop being a bull! Move with times and reality. When the party is over, don't just keep hitting the bottle. Go home, pull on the covers and hibernate :).

    cheers
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  • Originally Posted by wiseman
    Hi folks,

    With age and experience comes wisdom. Of course not always, only when people learn from the mistakes that we make and see others making.

    So, after my fair share of mistakes (some very costly ones), I have learnt that overconfidence is the worst thing to have. Also arrogance in ones own smartness is equally bad.

    One other major thing to be avoided is not to become blind to reality because we made a mistake and do not want to own up and change.

    Nataraj. I do not think I'm so powerful that I have formed a gang to be bearish about RE and verbally beat prices down. Such things do not happen even if you have the money power of a Mukesh Ambani.

    Secondly, I can't beat my arguments into other's heads. I present my case. Only if others then observe the situation themselves and see some merit in my arguments, they will accept. So, its not as if I have hypnotised them into chanting "wiseman, wiseman!" :D

    Strongsville. Some of us have seen reality and have formed an opinion for better or worse. Its just that Nataraj has to experience difficulties first before he also joins us in our view. Just a matter of timing :D. And maybe some avoidable losses.

    No offense, Nataraj. Time will tell. And if I'm proven wrong I will change even before you tell me about it ;).

    Oh, btw, prices will definitely go even below 2004, IMO!

    And Sridhar. I did my MBA in 1985 from one of the top 5 schools (in that year it was #2 ahead of IIM, Cal). And I got a job as Exec. Assistant to one of the biggest Software persons in India today. The salary was 3.5k only for what was one of the top jobs then. In 1995 salary had already reached 40k. In 1999 it was 150k. Beyond that you can speculate! Have seen the software business for 23 years. Even then, I'm fearful this time :D.

    Nataraj may think I'm a bear. But I made my biggest money being a bull all these years. But when its time to be a bear, its time to stop being a bull! Move with times and reality. When the party is over, don't just keep hitting the bottle. Go home, pull on the covers and hibernate :).

    cheers


    You Rock!!!! I visit this forum to read your posts. As you said RE prices will be down by 50-80% in 2009. I would like to know if this applies to properties in City outskirts?
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  • This site sucks

    I started loosing my big posts every now and then. I just replied Wiseman's post and it is not posted due to some reason.

    This is the 5th time and i am loosing my patience. Admin please fix this problem.

    I just wrote a big response to Wiseman and its gone. I don't want to type it again.

    Anyway well done Mr. Wiseman for your valuable input. But you are addressing the wrong person(Natarag) who wouldn't understand all these.
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  • we need to hear all the peoples views and opiniun .let us not discourage anyone for their contra views.

    I appericate Wiseman for dedicating his precious time in anlaysing and providing us with good inputs.

    Most of us visit this forum to know the trends and information which will helps us in our investment decisions.

    Instead of timing the market, let us be prepared and find some good deals. The market whether it is bear or bull or flat , there are some good deals always available.Let us learn to find out how.

    Lehman brothers had many harvard educated MBA's, it is not that they decisions went wrong, but it was the timing against their decisions.

    I would like to hear from all the people about their views, at the end of the day one has to take decisions on his own and take responsibilty for that.
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  • Originally Posted by sridharchennai
    Hi Natrajg007,

    Everybody has their views, so as Mr. Harry 1979. Well, I have certain things to confirm with you.

    1. I have never heared of software engg earning 2K - 5K in 2004. I myself a MBA passout in 2004, whereas we are earning 7k/month and software guys 14k/month. I think 2k should be salary of 90's

    2. Now it's official that there will be no bonus, no increments and promotions for next 1 year in corporate India. Do you think people will invest in this uncertain times. If there is no demand, how do you expect prices to be stable without falling?

    3. Unitech India's second biggest real estate firm has put their delhi office and their hotel projects on sale. Does this mean a possitive move? Please correct if I'm wrong.

    My friend now you are letting one cat out of the bag. In 2004 an MBA was getting 7K p.m. Now MBA is a generic name for humpteen college degrees. MBAs rather PGDMs from IIMs were getting around Rs 50K in 2004 too. Wipro was paying its employees again I must mention 2003, not more than 15K p.m. They dont define SW industry then, as they were picking elites. I am talking of the lower rung of freshers and they were possible to get at 2K to 5K. Infact the boom started between 2002 mid to 2003 mid. I am not making it up. I quit the SW industry in 2003 after 17 years to try to start up one. I couldnt get out in 2002 end and by the time I exited in 2003 middle, the price to get an engineer had shot up. Now in MNCs like where I worked we used to pick 1+ yr experience guys for about 5L+ p.a., so it is not that I am talking about ELITISTs, or IIT/IIM guys. I am talking about the Fresh Engineer, packs. Such guys today get 20K. To be precise if you get a job today in Microsoft it is 9L p.a. If you get it in CTS it is 3L p.a. So dont confuse data, much like Wiseman does.
    As for unabated love for WIseman from many here. I recommend all of you to continue with it. I have no gains writing here and if I am wrong, I care not. I continue to hold my realestates and in my case they are LANDS, not SILLY FLATS. I live in a FLAT as that is COMFORTABLE. I can shut the door and run out in a minute, cant do that in independant houses. And my land has shot up consistently and at super duper way in the past 5 years almost 10 times in many cases. However it wont fall based on my study of the 1990s by more than 20-40%. So for someone like me a land in Tiruvanmiyur shooting up from 30L in 2004 to 3C in 2008 will atbest go to 1.5C and I dont care. And those buying apartments for investment are less wiser than WISEMAN! However LAND appreciates, not STONES! So go and enjoy Wiseman, and as there are many dumbos here, even Wiseman can claim to be wise. Cheers.
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  • Originally Posted by strongsville
    I started loosing my big posts every now and then. I just replied Wiseman's post and it is not posted due to some reason.

    This is the 5th time and i am loosing my patience. Admin please fix this problem.

    I just wrote a big response to Wiseman and its gone. I don't want to type it again.

    Anyway well done Mr. Wiseman for your valuable input. But you are addressing the wrong person(Natarag) who wouldn't understand all these.

    Yep, Nataraj would not understand it! He has put in investments in 1988 which are worth about 200 times today in realestate. He predicted the top in Nifty around 5900 and wise folks took it to 6300 and dropped it. He knows realestate wont crash now, not that he is expecting it to go up forever. He knows that in India successive govts from 1980s have only one plug to play with, that is exchange rate. So if a property is bought now at 1Crore, which translates to 200K USD, govt will let 200K USD become 2C or 4C and let the property stay put. So salaries falling like in USA is the pseudo educated NRI thinking. He is neither here or there.
    Time will teach you folks. I dont have time to argue here as I used to once upon a time in MMB. Let is be that Wiseman is wise, who cares? And if you folks dont buy today at 1C and if it moves to 2C and YOU ARE NOT A SILLY NRI, then you will lose the chance. Finally I am not talking about Flat buyers who buy BRANDED property at premium stupidly. I am talking about those who buy land and build on it, or those who buy from flat builders who profit by building not by speculating.
    If you cant get what I said, you wont get anything into your head anyway. Finally this place is filled with the 20 to 30 year olds who assumes everyone writing here is in that age group and one Wiseman because he made mistakes learnt. Making mistakes helps learn, but that is no guarantee one learnt. After all the Harvard folks were yet going long on DJI even during the fall! Cheers.
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  • Your posts are very good. So why would it get blocked?

    Originally Posted by a_salim_99
    I tried to post in reply to wiseman's comments last week. My comments did not appear. I assumed moderator's have filtered my comments and got really angry, so stopped posting in this forum since then. :-)

    Little did I know that it is actually a bug. :-)



    Dear Salim,

    Keep posting. I'm tired of my own views. Need more alternate views so that mine can get tempered properly :D!

    cheers
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  • it would be some kind of timeout bug... we can find a solution to it. But does anyone know the admin..? i dont think he is active on the forum anymore.. !!
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  • Originally Posted by wiseman
    Dear Salim,

    Keep posting. I'm tired of my own views. Need more alternate views so that mine can get tempered properly :D!

    cheers

    Wiseman, I will also love to see you post. Otherwise the price of realestate might actually fall. LOL. U know what, when there are folks talking bearish market never falls.
    As for your brilliance. Why is it that price of a Ramaniyam flat in Seaward road off Tiruvanmiyur by atleast a KM, where Tsunami can strike as it is some 500 odd metres from sea, be priced at 4Crore for 3200 sqft. Is price falling or rising my friend?
    Do answer this tricky question and then keep your name? And dont blame it on wrong info etc. That is just a ruse for you to escape and if you are an escapist, I wont dare fight with you as I will let you escape through your rat hole. ROTFL.
    SO if you are man enough, rather sane enough to call yourself wise then answer this question above.
    PS. There is another villa project on Seaward road. 2500sqft land with 3000sqft building for 4Crores. Do some research and let this board know how wise you are. THanks.
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  • Originally Posted by Natarajg007
    Wiseman, I will also love to see you post. Otherwise the price of realestate might actually fall. LOL. U know what, when there are folks talking bearish market never falls.
    As for your brilliance. Why is it that price of a Ramaniyam flat in Seaward road off Tiruvanmiyur by atleast a KM, where Tsunami can strike as it is some 500 odd metres from sea, be priced at 4Crore for 3200 sqft. Is price falling or rising my friend?
    Do answer this tricky question and then keep your name? And dont blame it on wrong info etc. That is just a ruse for you to escape and if you are an escapist, I wont dare fight with you as I will let you escape through your rat hole. ROTFL.
    SO if you are man enough, rather sane enough to call yourself wise then answer this question above.
    PS. There is another villa project on Seaward road. 2500sqft land with 3000sqft building for 4Crores. Do some research and let this board know how wise you are. THanks.


    Hi Nataraj,

    We need optimistic people like you to defend the present situation because the realism is otherwise.
    The good thing is that the property is priced at 4C but how many of them have they been able to sell. Secondly, listed price might not be a real indication of selling price. I hear lots of listed price are thrased by 10 to 30% to get selling price. It has become buyers market and people are sitting and waiting. People who are panicky are throwing their property / land into the market to save their profits. It is a reversal condition, supply exceeding the demand and basic economics knowledge will demonstrate which trend the prices will go
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  • Originally Posted by Natarajg007
    Wiseman, I will also love to see you post. Otherwise the price of realestate might actually fall. LOL. U know what, when there are folks talking bearish market never falls.
    As for your brilliance. Why is it that price of a Ramaniyam flat in Seaward road off Tiruvanmiyur by atleast a KM, where Tsunami can strike as it is some 500 odd metres from sea, be priced at 4Crore for 3200 sqft. Is price falling or rising my friend?
    Do answer this tricky question and then keep your name? And dont blame it on wrong info etc. That is just a ruse for you to escape and if you are an escapist, I wont dare fight with you as I will let you escape through your rat hole. ROTFL.
    SO if you are man enough, rather sane enough to call yourself wise then answer this question above.
    PS. There is another villa project on Seaward road. 2500sqft land with 3000sqft building for 4Crores. Do some research and let this board know how wise you are. THanks.


    I think the real estate agents have the liberty to price their property based on their expectations and there is no regulation governing this. The interesting point to note is that, it is only the asking price and not the selling price. We need to wait and see if this will be selling price also in this climate.
    I tend to believe that lots of estate agents are publishing the same asking price and selling it at much negotiated price, 10 to 15% below their peak asking price.
    So, what do we base our analysis on, asking price or selling price?
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