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Uninhibited Exuberance

Last updated: December 31 2008
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  • #21

    #21

    Re : Uninhibited Exuberance

    Originally posted by ks2071746 View Post

    My budget was within Rs. 40 lakhs. all inclusive. Having spent over 8 months in the process, I finally went in for a 3 bed flat in Tambaram East close to Sanatorium Station. The rate was a little high at Rs. 3500/sq. ft. when people told the rate in this area is around Rs. 3000-3250, but the location was very good, most suited for my son and my coming new daughter-in-law for their commuting to their offices, one at Mahindra City and the other to be at Guindy.

    ks2071746:p
    KS,

    It seems your expectation was 1300 SF within a budget of 40L. With the rate 3500 PSFT and budget 40L, how did you manage to purchase an apartment of 1300 PSFT? What is the total cost of the apartment?

    I personally feel you should have waited until the slowdown to take its full course for a better price as the falldown is just in the initial phase. Anyhow, best wishes on your new home.

    Comment

    • #22

      #22

      Re : Uninhibited Exuberance

      I'm not trying to be offensive here, but

      Originally posted by ks2071746 View Post
      Dear wiseman sir,

      I am not into RE business at all as a broker or a promoter or an agent or a trader who would does buying and selling.

      This is how I look at this and not worried much by the so called downstrend or uptrend in the economy/market/RE scene. I have heard about the torture, If I am permitted to use this word, the flat/house owners give to their humble tenents, atleast we do not want to be caught with any such owner and lose my mental and physical health ultimately. I do not know if I have done the correct and fair thing by sharing very frankly my mind here in this forum. Regards.

      ks2071746:p

      ks,

      In an earlier post you told Nats and me that you were sick of our long posts. Now, on this post, you yourself inserted a loooong post.

      Just an observation. No offense. Also, I will try my best to post short ones with the same level information.

      Also, I would request Nats to please ignore my comments that use bad language. From now on we will all post and agree or disagree politely only!

      Thats my promise.

      As regards Nats offer to meet me in bangalore in one post, let me inform everyone that I live in Bangalore. I'm not an NRI. I have been in Bangalore for last 23 years and I'm what you might call an IT guy. Lately my work has taken my to IT related fields, but at the heart of it, I'm an IT guy only (in the past I have been for a while in Equity Analysis and continue to do it seriously for some high networth people on a friendly basis only).

      Nats, in case this interests you, I'm in the business of applying very high funda Math-based Pattern Recognition algorithms (obviously created by someone who is a high-funda Mathematician; not me ) to all kinds of problems in text, image and other types data. Applications are in Medicine, Lifesciences, Engineering, Financial sector, BPO/KPO/LPO, you name it, there is an application there . We believe that this is the next wave in IT/ITES and so do a lot of ous clients who are going ga-ga about it!

      So guys, while I do not have a job I do have a very profitable company of my own!!!

      Maybe I've said too much?

      cheers

      Comment

      • #23

        #23

        Re : Uninhibited Exuberance

        I agree to some extent to keep the messages short and sweet. The devil is in the details.

        1. This forum brings people from all walks of life, from the financial planning context, novice to experts. If you assume that you are writing to experts, some who don't understand posts (no fault of their own), might miss the points.

        2. Often, you will also have to back your arguments with data or supporting links from websites, otherwise, it will raise more questions than answers.

        I would leave it for the author to decide.

        Thanks,
        Salim.

        Comment

        • #24

          #24

          Re : Uninhibited Exuberance

          [quote=wiseman;10373]ks,

          In an earlier post you told Nats and me that you were sick of our long posts. Now, on this post, you yourself inserted a loooong post.

          Just an observation. No offense. Also, I will try my best to post short ones with the same level information.

          Also, I would request Nats to please ignore my comments that use bad language. From now on we will all post and agree or disagree politely only!

          Thats my promise.

          As regards Nats offer to meet me in bangalore in one post, let me inform everyone that I live in Bangalore. I'm not an NRI. I have been in Bangalore for last 23 years and I'm what you might call an IT guy. Lately my work has taken my to IT related fields, but at the heart of it, I'm an IT guy only (in the past I have been for a while in Equity Analysis and continue to do it seriously for some high networth people on a friendly basis only).

          Nats, in case this interests you, I'm in the business of applying very high funda Math-based Pattern Recognition algorithms (obviously created by someone who is a high-funda Mathematician; not me ) to all kinds of problems in text, image and other types data. Applications are in Medicine, Lifesciences, Engineering, Financial sector, BPO/KPO/LPO, you name it, there is an application there . We believe that this is the next wave in IT/ITES and so do a lot of ous clients who are going ga-ga about it!

          So guys, while I do not have a job I do have a very profitable company of my own!!!

          Maybe I've said too much? cheers(/quote)


          Dear wiseman and natarajg007,

          I am very happy seeing your above message, you have mentioned both your ids, to me it means, you both are becoming more friendly than ever. Good. I agree, I have given a long message, sorry for such a long one. But I could not make it shorter as I wanted to communicate my mind plainly and frankly, with the intention that it will benefit atleast a few members/guests. Hence forth, I will try to give shorter comments/messages pl. I will not make the readers to take the help of a dictionary often to find the meaning of some really difficult words you and natarajg007 (original friend and not the new one - nataraajg007 ) often use, as my vacabulary is really short of such difficult words, but only the day to day use words. I hope, you will agree, my intention here is not to kindle you both, but to appreciate your vacabulary.

          ks2071746

          Comment

          • #25

            #25

            Re : Uninhibited Exuberance

            Originally posted by wiseman View Post
            ks,

            In an earlier post you told Nats and me that you were sick of our long posts. Now, on this post, you yourself inserted a loooong post.

            Just an observation. No offense. Also, I will try my best to post short ones with the same level information.

            Also, I would request Nats to please ignore my comments that use bad language. From now on we will all post and agree or disagree politely only!

            Thats my promise.

            As regards Nats offer to meet me in bangalore in one post, let me inform everyone that I live in Bangalore. I'm not an NRI. I have been in Bangalore for last 23 years and I'm what you might call an IT guy. Lately my work has taken my to IT related fields, but at the heart of it, I'm an IT guy only (in the past I have been for a while in Equity Analysis and continue to do it seriously for some high networth people on a friendly basis only).

            Nats, in case this interests you, I'm in the business of applying very high funda Math-based Pattern Recognition algorithms (obviously created by someone who is a high-funda Mathematician; not me ) to all kinds of problems in text, image and other types data. Applications are in Medicine, Lifesciences, Engineering, Financial sector, BPO/KPO/LPO, you name it, there is an application there . We believe that this is the next wave in IT/ITES and so do a lot of ous clients who are going ga-ga about it!

            So guys, while I do not have a job I do have a very profitable company of my own!!!

            Maybe I've said too much?

            cheers
            Well well you have said atleast something about yourself. I am yet to get to that University of yours! Anyway take care.

            Comment

            • #26

              #26

              Re : Uninhibited Exuberance

              [QUOTE=ks2071746;10441]
              Originally posted by wiseman View Post
              ks,

              In an earlier post you told Nats and me that you were sick of our long posts. Now, on this post, you yourself inserted a loooong post.

              Just an observation. No offense. Also, I will try my best to post short ones with the same level information.

              Also, I would request Nats to please ignore my comments that use bad language. From now on we will all post and agree or disagree politely only!

              Thats my promise.

              As regards Nats offer to meet me in bangalore in one post, let me inform everyone that I live in Bangalore. I'm not an NRI. I have been in Bangalore for last 23 years and I'm what you might call an IT guy. Lately my work has taken my to IT related fields, but at the heart of it, I'm an IT guy only (in the past I have been for a while in Equity Analysis and continue to do it seriously for some high networth people on a friendly basis only).

              Nats, in case this interests you, I'm in the business of applying very high funda Math-based Pattern Recognition algorithms (obviously created by someone who is a high-funda Mathematician; not me ) to all kinds of problems in text, image and other types data. Applications are in Medicine, Lifesciences, Engineering, Financial sector, BPO/KPO/LPO, you name it, there is an application there . We believe that this is the next wave in IT/ITES and so do a lot of ous clients who are going ga-ga about it!

              So guys, while I do not have a job I do have a very profitable company of my own!!!

              Maybe I've said too much? cheers(/quote)


              Dear wiseman and natarajg007,

              I am very happy seeing your above message, you have mentioned both your ids, to me it means, you both are becoming more friendly than ever. Good. I agree, I have given a long message, sorry for such a long one. But I could not make it shorter as I wanted to communicate my mind plainly and frankly, with the intention that it will benefit atleast a few members/guests. Hence forth, I will try to give shorter comments/messages pl. I will not make the readers to take the help of a dictionary often to find the meaning of some really difficult words you and natarajg007 (original friend and not the new one - nataraajg007 ) often use, as my vacabulary is really short of such difficult words, but only the day to day use words. I hope, you will agree, my intention here is not to kindle you both, but to appreciate your vacabulary.

              ks2071746
              You cant explain much in short. If you talk long without matter nobody will listen. U decide which u want! LOL!

              Comment

              • #27

                #27

                Re : Uninhibited Exuberance

                Originally posted by manzb View Post
                I think u r on eof those who believes an asset class like RE will never come down.. in any case, u seems is even bullish then the real estate developers who themselves are saying that the prices will come down (recent request by CREDAI and other associations) ... in any case, my dear sir, pls go around and ask all these developers and they are ready to negotiate.. now talking of independent plots and bungalows.. well unlike a developer who is bound by cash flow for running his business a lot of these are individiual owners who has higher holding capacity and like u believes that it is a sin to quote lower.. but as RE is a low liquidity asset, in case of some one in distress, he will start selling at a huge discount.. in any case, the ROI u r mentioning in the forum r absurd, and no asset class gives that kind of return for a prolonged period of 15-20 years.. the best is about 18-20% by stocks.. followed by RE at about 10-12% and followed by Gold .. which actually just follows the inflation with a positive bias.. In any case all asset class go thru cycle and RE is no exception... hence starting this year it looks like that RE is getting into downturn and will retract in most likelyhood to 50% and at minimum level of 30%.. looking at the earlier cycles it shall take anywhere between 5-10 years for the upturn to start again... in any case, as long as u r happy with ur investment, all is fine.. but in reality what wiseman is saying is true to some extent but not entirely.. as if u start today with a 40% outgo of ur salry for RE, in next few years it will come down to 30% then 20% and so... as value of money will go down due to inflation and also there is likelyhood of one getting into higher position as time goes by with higher income.. but that does not justify paying the abnormal RE prices of today.. and hence it is better that one shall wait and let sanity come into RE market.

                Cheeeeeeeeeeeeeers
                Nice discussion. U have brought out lots of points however I dont think u have put all the puzzles together. Spend time to put them together and u will find
                a. If RE really crashes as you said by 50% it will actually be a deadly collapse for all INdians. This spiral can actually cause a Civil war! Think of those who will be bankrupt and INdians hardly know how to take job losses, where can they take "king to beggar" or going to "car houses as in California".
                b. On the other hand RE may actually go up because the recession is hardly anything in INdia. ACtually I dont even feel it around beyond a few jobs going for mostly useless folks. Now the fellow who unfairly got a 50K job when he deserved only 20K will fall back to the 20K option and things will stabilise.
                c. Indian RE is managed by big hands and black money. SW engineers are just a way of expressing HIFI feeling like NRIs were some years back. ACtually they dont support the market beyond those large apartment complexes by DLFs and the like. In other words land and house will be much more difficult to get in the future than now and with our USELESS infrastructure high rise buildings will anyway be doomed.
                Hope u got it.

                Comment

                • #28

                  #28

                  Re : Uninhibited Exuberance

                  Originally posted by ks2071746 View Post
                  Dear wiseman sir,

                  I am not into RE business at all as a broker or a promoter or an agent or a trader who would does buying and selling. I was looking for a decent 3 bed flat of around 1300 sq. ft. since Jan.08 and have visited a number of localities like Vandalur, Perungalathur, Urappakkam, Madipakkam, Selayur, Pallavaram, Chrompet, Tambaram West, Chitlapakkam, Camp Road, Medavakkam, Vandalur-Kelambakkam Road, Maraimalai Nagar, Guduvanchery, Saidapet, KK Nagar, Manapakkam, Porur etc. etc. for only a flat, not for land or independent house, which are beyond my reach/budget. My budget was within Rs. 40 lakhs. all inclusive. Having spent over 8 months in the process, I finally went in for a 3 bed flat in Tambaram East close to Sanatorium Station. The rate was a little high at Rs. 3500/sq. ft. when people told the rate in this area is around Rs. 3000-3250, but the location was very good, most suited for my son and my coming new daughter-in-law for their commuting to their offices, one at Mahindra City and the other to be at Guindy. The recent rains also proved to us that the site was not affected by water logging. The builder did not reduce the rates since I met him first time in May 08. Having gone round for almost 5 months to different places and builders, I ultimately went to him in September 08 to finalise the flat, one in the I floor of 2 blocks, each block with 4 flats each, 2 in the GF and 2 in th I floor. The finalised flat is 3 beds with 3 toilets and 3 balconies which remained unsold due to higher area for these 5 months. I felt this is the best flat in the whole lot of 8 flats. I had to book the flat at the price indicated with very marginal peanut discount. I was 3 rd buyer to book the flat and thought subsequently, the balance 5 flats will not be sold at least for now at their rate. But to my surprise, as of yesterday, 6 flats have been sold and only 2 remain to be sold. I now feel, these 2 also will be sold shortly, at the price what the builder quotes. The progress is fast and will be ready for occupation by early March 09. I was expecting, the builder will not be able to sell and may offer the unsold flats at discounted prices. To my surprise, this has not happened as I could gather from a recent buyer whom I came across by chance and did even look at the agreement papers.
                  So, as far as the Chennai RE is concerned, there are Builders reducing the rates, there a few sticking on to the prices, there are some more who do not even start the project after announcing the project but book the flats at differental rates , there are also many big ones who may start now and hand over the flats with delay after 24 or even 36 months. For people like me, who is not considering the purchase from pure investment angle but from the utility angle and personal usage, any time is right time. He should not regret the decision once taken, if one has selected a good builder, a decent locality, fast and uninterrupted progress, quality construction, no water problem in the summer, no water logging in the winter/rainy season, better go for that even at a little premium. This is the lesson I have learnt in my limited period search for flat in Chennai South. May be the so called higher appreciation may not be there in the short period of 2 or 3 years, but the flat can fetch a price, say after 5 years or so if one has to sell due to any compulsion, which may give the appreciation of atleast 10 % per annum like an FD.
                  In the case of large projects, let us not forget the high maintanence charges of about Rs. 2/sq.ft, high deposit charges, for a 1300 sq. ft. this alone will come to Rs. 2600 per month, leave alone the club house deposit, 4 % service charges ( please correct me if I am not correct ) etc. etc. In some areas, the rental value will be low, in the order of Rs. 4000 only and how can one take the maintancne charge of Rs. 2600 PM also. For high rise flats, or flats with lifts, the ground floor tenent also should bear the share of electricity charges for the common use especialy lift consuming large power as well as the large lift maintanence charges. To people like me, the swimming pool, club house, super market ( the prices will be very high here as the tenents in the project only will use the shop with limited sales) are upper middle/high class luxuries and I just cannot think of spending for these, out of my hard earned money now or in future. Members may forgive me for the views expressed in this para if I am wrong.

                  This is how I look at this and not worried much by the so called downstrend or uptrend in the economy/market/RE scene. I have heard about the torture, If I am permitted to use this word, the flat/house owners give to their humble tenents, atleast we do not want to be caught with any such owner and lose my mental and physical health ultimately. I do not know if I have done the correct and fair thing by sharing very frankly my mind here in this forum. Regards.

                  ks2071746:p
                  That was well written KS.

                  Comment

                  • #29

                    #29

                    Re : Uninhibited Exuberance

                    Originally posted by manzb View Post
                    I think u r on eof those who believes an asset class like RE will never come down.. in any case, u seems is even bullish then the real estate developers who themselves are saying that the prices will come down (recent request by CREDAI and other associations) ... in any case, my dear sir, pls go around and ask all these developers and they are ready to negotiate.. now talking of independent plots and bungalows.. well unlike a developer who is bound by cash flow for running his business a lot of these are individiual owners who has higher holding capacity and like u believes that it is a sin to quote lower.. but as RE is a low liquidity asset, in case of some one in distress, he will start selling at a huge discount.. in any case, the ROI u r mentioning in the forum r absurd, and no asset class gives that kind of return for a prolonged period of 15-20 years.. the best is about 18-20% by stocks.. followed by RE at about 10-12% and followed by Gold .. which actually just follows the inflation with a positive bias.. In any case all asset class go thru cycle and RE is no exception... hence starting this year it looks like that RE is getting into downturn and will retract in most likelyhood to 50% and at minimum level of 30%.. looking at the earlier cycles it shall take anywhere between 5-10 years for the upturn to start again... in any case, as long as u r happy with ur investment, all is fine.. but in reality what wiseman is saying is true to some extent but not entirely.. as if u start today with a 40% outgo of ur salry for RE, in next few years it will come down to 30% then 20% and so... as value of money will go down due to inflation and also there is likelyhood of one getting into higher position as time goes by with higher income.. but that does not justify paying the abnormal RE prices of today.. and hence it is better that one shall wait and let sanity come into RE market.

                    Cheeeeeeeeeeeeeers
                    Incidentally regarding rate of return and YOUR BELIEF THAT STOCK MARKETS alone return high. U are highly mistaken. I have spent time explaining prices of lands I hold and their returns in another message in this board. Just to quote, one land I have was 5K in 1966, 3L in 1993 and 2C today. U can find the CAGR and it varies over time. Incidentally in the last 15 years the rate is 32% cumulative. Dont tell me I am wrong as these are quotes I have from prospective buyers not off the head. Finally I may not sell the land yet as I have no reason to whatsoever!

                    Comment

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