Friends,

Pl discuss how much down fall is expected in IT sector and its impact on real estate.

2008 saw about 20 to 30" downfall. How much will be in 2009?
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  • Originally Posted by GoccaMacca
    BANGALORE: Will India’s realty giant DLF lead a wave of residential price correction in Bangalore’s upscale apartment market? The company, which
    virtually single-handedly created Gurgaon, has slashed its rates for an upcoming project in Bangalore’s Bannerghatta Road by a whopping 32%. In a move that surprised many, the rates have been cut to
    Rs 1,850 per sq ft, a price last quoted in 2000.


    Dear friend,

    I remember having heard somewhere, this project may not take off?

    ks2071746
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  • its like "upto 50% off" sale,where the 50% disc item would be worthless

    Originally Posted by GoccaMacca
    BANGALORE: Will India’s realty giant DLF lead a wave of residential price correction in Bangalore’s upscale apartment market? The company, which
    virtually single-handedly created Gurgaon, has slashed its rates for an upcoming project in Bangalore’s Bannerghatta Road by a whopping 32%. In a move that surprised many, the rates have been cut to
    Rs 1,850 per sq ft, a price last quoted in 2000.


    have you checked for other proj in that locality,have you checked other charges,like chennai pattinam,off OMR base price is 1600/- but all incl is 2075/- (a whooping 30% more)
    on one hand we dont trust builders on the other we take their word for it.
    Like OMR is a vast stretch have checked bannerghatta road,where on banner ghatta road??? and in 2000 such far off places were a rarity.
    so on what basis have you said 2000 prices? have you any data to back it up.
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  • Originally Posted by GoccaMacca
    BANGALORE: Will India’s realty giant DLF lead a wave of residential price correction in Bangalore’s upscale apartment market? The company, which
    virtually single-handedly created Gurgaon, has slashed its rates for an upcoming project in Bangalore’s Bannerghatta Road by a whopping 32%. In a move that surprised many, the rates have been cut to
    Rs 1,850 per sq ft, a price last quoted in 2000.


    Why do you cross post the same across topics? If you want to get it noticed by ALL, please open a new topic!
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  • it is like "upto 50% off" sale.the 50% disc. item would be worthless?

    Originally Posted by madrasi
    have you checked for other proj in that locality,have you checked other charges,like chennai pattinam,off OMR base price is 1600/- but all incl is 2075/- (a whooping 30% more)
    on one hand we dont trust builders on the other we take their word for it.
    Like OMR is a vast stretch have checked bannerghatta road,where on banner ghatta road??? and in 2000 such far off places were a rarity.
    so on what basis have you said 2000 prices? have you any data to back it up.


    Hi,

    Is there any gurantee that the builder will deliver spotless apartment if you give 2007 sky-high prices ? He is after all doing business to maximise his profit . He is not running any social service . So he will do anything to maximise the profit . Customers can also be cheated not only by RE Guys but also others . When a teacher does not deliver the good education , it literally means that he is cheating the students & he is cheating the Govt / School management & cheating the profession(Those who involved in getting approval for a Self-Finance Engg college may know better how greedy the Engg Colleges are in getting the capitation fees & other laboratory & Tuition fees) . RE Guys are no exception but occurance is high.

    Its the fact that DLF price is Rs 1850 back to year 2000 prices in that location & does not need any back up data .And we cant generalise this Year 2000 prices for all locality . Some may go back to 2002-2004 prices and some can go back to 1998 prices as stated by DLF's Rajiv Singh a week back. But there are remote possibilities that it will go back to 2007-08 sky-high prices atleast for the next 5-6 years .

    Cheers.
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  • Originally Posted by gone_mad
    Why do you cross post the same across topics? If you want to get it noticed by ALL, please open a new topic!


    Dear Friend,

    You can suggest to avoid duplication in posting thats welcome gesture.

    You cant even advise/police other members in this forum because we have some admins doing that role.

    Definitely you will be affended when the same guy retreats with "Who are you to ask this ?" ..

    Lets be friendly.
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  • Early signs of what is to come :)

    Originally Posted by GoccaMacca
    BANGALORE: Will India’s realty giant DLF lead a wave of residential price correction in Bangalore’s upscale apartment market? The company, which
    virtually single-handedly created Gurgaon, has slashed its rates for an upcoming project in Bangalore’s Bannerghatta Road by a whopping 32%. In a move that surprised many, the rates have been cut to
    Rs 1,850 per sq ft, a price last quoted in 2000.



    Gocca (and others),

    Imagine! Reportedly (one needs to check this before taking this for granted) the quoted price is that going back to 2000. Assuming that is correct (i.e, location is the same, etc) this is worse than anyone expected. And you say that this is only a 32% drop? Bu my calculation, if the price rise has been 200 - 300% from 2000, then this drop is probably less than that.

    We have not even seen the beginnings of the severe Depression (increasing number of economists world over are talking about this becoming worse than the Great Depression of the 1930s, though structurally different). And the severe stress being faced by the Builders is starting to create major cracks in their sustainability. Many of them will go bust and disappear by the time this ends.

    You will note that I live a difficult existence on this forum. Here is what I have been saying from the beginning (say Jun/Jul when I started much before the Oct crash :) and got brickbats for it then because what was said and what was seen at that time seemed so different (so people thought I was nuts). Obviously, because I was talking about what would be coming 6-9 months down the line as I saw it. And it is now here. And when things start happening, people revert to saying exactly whats already been said much earlier! :D

    So, here I state exactly what was said 6-7 months ago ...

    - RE will generally decline by 50% to 80% over the next few years before hitting bottom. Higher it went, harder and further it would fall ...

    - Gold is probably the only Asset which would show consistent resistance against falling asset values across all asset classes. And obviously against falling currency value. Gold does not give returns. But it is the only hedge against inflation/deflation (or falling real value) from time immemorial. So, this rapid rise in Gold will be a sign of the rapid fall in REAL asset prices of property and every other asset (except silver). In case of extreme distress, expect Gold to go up to even $3000 - $5000 from current $970!!! Buying physical Gold in small lots (coins) when prices decline (range of $700-800) will be a good idea but only when prices decline a little.

    - The Stock Market will probably decline to 6200 on the Sensex (which was the 1999 peak before the 2001 crash!). Further declines could take it back to Harshad days peak of 4500, which was in 1992. Remember, India spent a full 8 years with the Index trading below 6500. Why not another 8 years with Index below the 12000 range again? That too with the current turmoil?

    - RE prices will easily fall to 2000 - 2002 levels. If this depression prolongs (as I believe it will), Indian Economy will crash badly and prices may go all the way back even to early/mid 1990s level, as will the economy. Our FE position could well go back from a peak of $315 Billion to mid-90s position of double digits. FE restrictions will come in to control fall in reserves.

    - The next Stock Boom is probably years away (maybe another 5 - 8 years). The US (as well as EU and Japan - which together form between 60% - 70% of the World's Economy) will probably spend the next many years in the throes of severe depression). If 70% of the World's Economy is in depression, do you really think that India and China will go Boom, boom, boom?!!! All by themselves? Dream on and wake up your worst nightmare.

    When the FM, Chidambaram was reading out budget last year, I was wondering out loud whether he knew that this mega bust was coming. So, when he talked about being confident of keeping the Fiscal Deficit below 2.5% of GDP, I was quite clear that it was a political gimmick. Now we know from the Govt that it is 6% and from SL Rao (a guru in these matters) that it will finally be computed close to 8%.

    Remember, an 8% Fiscal Deficit when we spent first part of the year in boom-boom mode!!! What will it be in 2009 when the whole year will be in Doom-doom mode!!!
    Expectation is that, with all this election-year pandering via populist measures, it may well be in the 10-12% + range and with rosy projected revenue crashing due to export crash and general slowdown in consumption may even go to 15% of GDP! Economy will be in shambles as (to my knowledge) it has not happened before.

    - Govt has already run out of easy credit to dish out (why there was no stimulus package this time as they realised that stimulus is not working and they are running out of money)

    - There will be no further sops to the RE sector (as to other sectors). All this talk about people being able to sustain forever will end when severe and prolonged decline occurs. Nobody likes to see 60% of his wealth disappearing (even black) without any hope of recovery in the near term. They will sell to cut losses

    - Credit will become much tighter

    - Consumption will crash further (good side-effect will be people will lose weight more and become healthier generally)! :D

    - Oversupply in the markets will increase to intolerable levels in most heavy assets (cars, plasma TVs, Cell Phones, flats)

    Under these circumstances, we will see the REAL CRASH in RE coming up. This 10% - 25% decline with volumes crashing that we see now is only the trailer. The main movie is only starting to play now. And its one of those long running blockbusters!

    We in India are currently in the Twilight Zone! We are under the impression that, with most of the World going through the worst crisis seen in modern times, somehow, magically we will be flying high. Welcome back to earth.

    I attribute it to total ignorance of Macro Economics and anything beyond what is happening within 1 km of our specific locality. Not that I'm a great economist - far from that. But I listen to some of them all the time. And try to understand what they are warning us about.

    I hope people will take this opportunity to read up (check out the Web and I've already given some interesting names in another post) and figure out this life-changing times we are going through by listening to people who seem to know where we are headed!!!

    Buy RE now at your own peril. Good luck!

    cheers
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  • Originally Posted by GoccaMacca
    BANGALORE: Will India’s realty giant DLF lead a wave of residential price correction in Bangalore’s upscale apartment market? The company, which
    virtually single-handedly created Gurgaon, has slashed its rates for an upcoming project in Bangalore’s Bannerghatta Road by a whopping 32%. In a move that surprised many, the rates have been cut to
    Rs 1,850 per sq ft, a price last quoted in 2000.


    this is a thread from another forum
    dated 29-03-2008
    03-29-2008, 09:22 PM
    MrLong
    Member Posts: 255
    Thanks Given: 1
    Received Thanks: 5 Times in 5 Posts Join Date: Mar 2007
    Location: Timbukto, USA
    Indian City: Blore
    Myself:

    I also got to see this email. Wasn't there an article earlier about 100,000 apartments built and vacant in Blore.

    Why will this be a good investment? is it the DLF brand or the location? The current rate, AFAIK, for newly built apartments are around that range or so... near B'ghatta road.

    This project is 4 kms OFF b'ghatta road. And, will be ready only after 3 yrs. If the builder promises 3 yrs, lets expect 4 yrs. Is it really worth it as an investment?

    -M
    second post

    TMUS
    Member Posts: 108
    Thanks Given: 1
    Received Thanks: 10 Times in 9 Posts Join Date: Jan 2007
    Location: Bengaluru, USA
    Indian City: Chennai
    Myself:

    It is 4 kms from IIM, 20 mins drive to Electronic City, & 30 mins to MG Road.

    It will take 20-30 minutes to just reach Bannerghatta Road given that the project is 4 kms from IIM, one would have to drive thru streets and bylanes.
    __________________
    If you think you CAN, you can, If you think you CAN'T, you are probably right.
    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    this is abk.

    it is not on but off bannerghatta road,4kms inside.
    THE LOCATION WAS NOT ATTRACTIVE ONE YEAR BACK AND HENCE HE WAS NOT ABLE TO SELL EVEN IN BETTER MKT CONDITIONS THAN NOW.
    THAT EXPLAINS THE DISCOUNT NOW.ANYWAYS ALL HAVE BEEN SAYING 'FAR OFF PLACES' WILL CRASH.TELL ME WHEN GOOD PLACES CRASH. (THE caps were only to diff the posts)
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  • You'll have to wait a bit ... :)

    Originally Posted by abk
    this is a thread from another forum
    it is not on but off bannerghatta road,4kms inside.
    THE LOCATION WAS NOT ATTRACTIVE ONE YEAR BACK AND HENCE HE WAS NOT ABLE TO SELL EVEN IN BETTER MKT CONDITIONS THAN NOW.
    THAT EXPLAINS THE DISCOUNT NOW.ANYWAYS ALL HAVE BEEN SAYING 'FAR OFF PLACES' WILL CRASH.TELL ME WHEN GOOD PLACES CRASH. (THE caps were only to diff the posts)


    I have already mentioned that this is comparable only if it is for the same location - obviously it isn't. So the falls have not yet come down to 35% or so.

    For good properties to fall you have quite a bit of wait. I too am waiting. Please be patient!!! :D All good things take time!

    cheers
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  • Originally Posted by wiseman
    I have already mentioned that this is comparable only if it is for the same location - obviously it isn't. So the falls have not yet come down to 35% or so.

    For good properties to fall you have quite a bit of wait. I too am waiting. Please be patient!!! :D All good things take time!

    cheers

    Wiseman, you claim to be living in Bangalore. Do you know what was the worth of Banerghatta road in 2000? Did it cost Rs 1850psft in Banerghatta road in 2000 for a flat? Do you know what Adarsh Palm Meadows was costing in 2000?
    Do u agree with the lie that prices have crashed to 2000 levels? Ur answer will show what you know about bangalore.
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  • BTW in 2000, Adarsh Palm Meadows a fantastic project was available for 40Lakhs. I am talking about 3000 sqft independant gated villa. Now I think it is 4 to 6cr. Can Gocca and Mocca get me an adarsh villa for 40L now? I want it desperately.
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  • Originally Posted by sethugm
    Dear Friend,

    You can suggest to avoid duplication in posting thats welcome gesture.

    You cant even advise/police other members in this forum because we have some admins doing that role.

    Definitely you will be affended when the same guy retreats with "Who are you to ask this ?" ..

    Lets be friendly.


    I aint definitely trying to police or admin here, but was just curious to know his intention of cross posting. Isn't it silly to do even if you have a valid point? I'm afraid that your intention gets noticed before your arguments.

    If he has the rights to spew the same over multiple posts, dont I have the same rights to ask why? after all, this is just a discussion forum buddy.
    Thanks for your care! take care
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  • Originally Posted by gone_mad
    I aint definitely trying to police or admin here, but was just curious to know his intention of cross posting. Isn't it silly to do even if you have a valid point? I'm afraid that your intention gets noticed before your arguments.

    If he has the rights to spew the same over multiple posts, dont I have the same rights to ask why? after all, this is just a discussion forum buddy.
    Thanks for your care! take care


    And what is wrong about his intentions. You want the price to keep going up and there are a lot of others who want the price to go down so that they can afford. So why is your intention noble and not others.
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  • Originally Posted by nojoke
    And what is wrong about his intentions. You want the price to keep going up and there are a lot of others who want the price to go down so that they can afford. So why is your intention noble and not others.


    I have told many a times that I am a prospective buyer (first time buyer) and I have never supported the bearish or bullish views. I just have a modest and practical view about the RE happenings.
    I take the both bearish and bullish points, personally judge with the valid ones, listen to my instincts and will decide upon when n where to buy - this is my stand.

    What I meant by 'silly intention' is just the cross posting thing and not the content. Hope I made it clear... apologies if the earlier post had been rude.
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  • Originally Posted by gone_mad
    I aint definitely trying to police or admin here, but was just curious to know his intention of cross posting. Isn't it silly to do even if you have a valid point? I'm afraid that your intention gets noticed before your arguments.

    If he has the rights to spew the same over multiple posts, dont I have the same rights to ask why? after all, this is just a discussion forum buddy.
    Thanks for your care! take care


    I agree with you on that. Some of these retards, driven by some crazy motivation, find it worthwhile to copy paste the same drivel on multiple forums. I cannot fathom why they do that. I am glad you pointed it out. You were quite polite, actually. I'd have used harsher language.

    Also, can someone take all of Wiseman's predictions and make it a sticky? (Mods?) I'd like to track his predictions for the next 12 months, and if even 75% of them come true, I'd personally recommend Wisey for the Nobel prize (or something equivalent)
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  • Originally Posted by panther

    Also, can someone take all of Wiseman's predictions and make it a sticky? (Mods?) I'd like to track his predictions for the next 12 months, and if even 75% of them come true, I'd personally recommend Wisey for the Nobel prize (or something equivalent)


    A nice idea, sticky threads are not here yet I believe.
    Not only wiseys', but shouldnt we collate all the prophecies made by Nats, nabishek, et al?
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