Friends,

Pl discuss how much down fall is expected in IT sector and its impact on real estate.

2008 saw about 20 to 30" downfall. How much will be in 2009?
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  • Originally Posted by gone_mad
    A nice idea, sticky threads are not here yet I believe.
    Not only wiseys', but shouldnt we collate all the prophecies made by Nats, nabishek, et al?


    Absolutely! If someone can scan the posts in the last 6-8 months, extract the gists of what Wisey and Natty and others have posted, and come up with a single succinct post that presents, in a bulleted form, predictions from all of them, it would be really interesting to track it for the next few months and see who's the winner. Though the Admin and Mods here seem to be incredibly hard hearted, I am sure they can put up a sticky for us if we ask them nice. :)

    This would be the Internet equivalent of a cage-fight betn wisey and natty. My money's on Wisey for the time being, though his predictions seem slightly extreme on some fronts.
    CommentQuote
  • Originally Posted by wiseman
    Gocca (and others),

    Remember, an 8% Fiscal Deficit when we spent first part of the year in boom-boom mode!!! What will it be in 2009 when the whole year will be in Doom-doom mode!!! Expectation is that, with all this election-year pandering via populist measures, it may well be in the 10-12% + range and with rosy projected revenue crashing due to export crash and general slowdown in consumption may even go to 15% of GDP! Economy will be in shambles as (to my knowledge) it has not happened before.

    - Govt has already run out of easy credit to dish out (why there was no stimulus package this time as they realised that stimulus is not working and they are running out of money)

    - There will be no further sops to the RE sector (as to other sectors). All this talk about people being able to sustain forever will end when severe and prolonged decline occurs. Nobody likes to see 60% of his wealth disappearing (even black) without any hope of recovery in the near term. They will sell to cut losses

    - Credit will become much tighter

    - Consumption will crash further (good side-effect will be people will lose weight more and become healthier generally)! :D

    - Oversupply in the markets will increase to intolerable levels in most heavy assets (cars, plasma TVs, Cell Phones, flats)


    Buy RE now at your own peril. Good luck!

    cheers


    Thanks Wiseman, for restating all what you have been so Prophetically stating for so long and reminding us all once again in this post.

    Many of the scenarios are scary and is something we would pray it doesnt happen.

    We sure are seeing many early signs of it, people losing jobs, defaulting EMI's,Retail chains getting closed etc..

    After the Elections, People will get to know the real (e)state of the country.

    Till then I believe, Everyone will try to maintain status quo and use all the possible tricks under the sleeve to keep the bad news under wraps.
    CommentQuote
  • Originally Posted by gone_mad
    Hi People,

    I've been a long time observer of this forum, and this forum has made a definite impact on my decisions on dealing with money, be it with RE or other investments of late.

    Now that I'd like to get some advice / suggestions from you guys for my MBA project.
    This forum is so information rich and I'd like to utilize the information that's being shared here on my project say details about RE boom in India, recession impacts or other widely discussed hotopics.

    And ya, I agree that mine is a silly education when compared with the biggie Ivy league, IIM, IIT peepz around and that's why I'd like to get all your guidance to make a better project paper.
    Requisite is project can be in any topic related to Finance, Economy (I major in Finance)

    I'd greatly appreciate any expert help, responses, topics, advices, suggestions, and what not
    TIA

    Originally Posted by gone_mad
    I have told many a times that I am a prospective buyer (first time buyer) and I have never supported the bearish or bullish views. I just have a modest and practical view about the RE happenings.
    I take the both bearish and bullish points, personally judge with the valid ones, listen to my instincts and will decide upon when n where to buy - this is my stand.

    What I meant by 'silly intention' is just the cross posting thing and not the content. Hope I made it clear... apologies if the earlier post had been rude.


    Gone_Mad,

    Let me make it clear that Yes I am bearish & I want to see the prices to fall to realistic levels.

    Hi All,

    Why I am bearish on RE ...

    --Sky-High prices escalated by greedy people(with no basic Infra).
    --The global recession with no possible turnaround timeline on the cards
    --90% of the retail stock investors lost 60-70 % of the investment & could not exit for the next 2 years.
    --No value for money on RE Property
    --PE Participation & Participants in RE has been decimated.
    --Bleak Economic Outlook ..Delay in Govt accepting the contraction & so delay in remedy/turnaround.
    --Worthless land/apartment with no completion time.
    --Declining Job prospects & Exports plummetting
    --Worthless beedi-smoking brokers talking in Crores and asking 2% commission without any valid document .

    Am sure many would have avoided the RE purchase because of these stupid brokers quoting in crores for worthless places.And some of my friends retarded the broker "I will give you one year time , Can you earn/save/show Rs 10000 other than this RE Cheating ?".Few of my friends decided not to hurry and let it correct automatically ...Its being done by the grace of Oversupply/Recession/GreedyLeverage and am sure many of these greedy people would be reduced to Zero or Negative in the months ahead.

    Just let me narrate another instance ..

    Seeing an ad for a Perungudi property in magicbricks advertised by an agent with Name X(there was a famous 'Tamil' thriller novelist 'Lena' ), I sent my interest which he replied.

    I sent an email asking the details of the property with the following details.

    1. Does he have the original document .. ?
    2. Whats his role/responsibility if there any problem arises on the property in the coming years ..
    3. Why he is asking 2% commission ?

    With no surprise he never replied . He may be good guy as he did not proceed further as he did not have the valid answers for my queries. Someone else would have tried further to cheat.

    My sincere thanks Mr X .

    In the country where I live currently,any sale/buy proceeds only after the Govt valuation and the Agents have to clear all the legal issues and responsible for anything arises henceforth.

    For the 3/4 th money quoted in Chennai ,I can easily buy a good house here with fantastic Infra.And I can be carefree for life as there is Zero % chances for forgery.

    When there is no Security & Infra & Job prospects, how people are expecting the price to appreciate every year by 20 percent . Can I say those as greedy/lunatics ?

    There are many guys under the pretext of prospective buyers trying to hold up the prices .

    These guys are worser than the meanest thing in the world.

    I really appreciate 2 guys in this forum clearly stating they are land/property owners & state that the prices will appreciate .Its human nature when some possibly loose something he will try his best to avoid the loss.(But one has to change his approach & avoid using bad words).

    Gone_Mad,

    Each and every one creates their own thread with their own agenda. So its very much necessary that any effort to escalate the prices further has to be abated in the interest of consumers .

    Just let us know when your (RE) project gets completed.

    You may counter with 'why not one cant be doing both MBA Project and searching property' in that case you would have made your intentions clear earlier ..FullStop..I dont want to waste my time.

    Bye
    CommentQuote
  • Originally Posted by abk
    this is a thread from another forum
    dated 29-03-2008
    03-29-2008, 09:22 PM
    MrLong
    Member Posts: 255
    Thanks Given: 1
    Received Thanks: 5 Times in 5 Posts Join Date: Mar 2007
    Location: Timbukto, USA
    Indian City: Blore
    Myself:

    I also got to see this email. Wasn't there an article earlier about 100,000 apartments built and vacant in Blore.

    Why will this be a good investment? is it the DLF brand or the location? The current rate, AFAIK, for newly built apartments are around that range or so... near B'ghatta road.

    This project is 4 kms OFF b'ghatta road. And, will be ready only after 3 yrs. If the builder promises 3 yrs, lets expect 4 yrs. Is it really worth it as an investment?

    -M
    second post

    TMUS
    Member Posts: 108
    Thanks Given: 1
    Received Thanks: 10 Times in 9 Posts Join Date: Jan 2007
    Location: Bengaluru, USA
    Indian City: Chennai
    Myself:

    It is 4 kms from IIM, 20 mins drive to Electronic City, & 30 mins to MG Road.

    It will take 20-30 minutes to just reach Bannerghatta Road given that the project is 4 kms from IIM, one would have to drive thru streets and bylanes.
    __________________
    If you think you CAN, you can, If you think you CAN'T, you are probably right.
    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    this is abk.

    it is not on but off bannerghatta road,4kms inside.
    THE LOCATION WAS NOT ATTRACTIVE ONE YEAR BACK AND HENCE HE WAS NOT ABLE TO SELL EVEN IN BETTER MKT CONDITIONS THAN NOW.
    THAT EXPLAINS THE DISCOUNT NOW.ANYWAYS ALL HAVE BEEN SAYING 'FAR OFF PLACES' WILL CRASH.TELL ME WHEN GOOD PLACES CRASH. (THE caps were only to diff the posts)


    http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/4152263.cms

    This is not something old news and could see the same in todays EconomicTimes.

    Cheers GoccaMacca .

    People will try their best to defend the exorbitant price until completely crushed down.

    They will try to hide the truth with false claims. Ignorant as high as RE Prices.

    Market is doing it and will take care of them.
    CommentQuote
  • Originally Posted by sethugm
    http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/4152263.cms

    This is not something old and could see the same in todays EconomicTimes.

    Cheers GoccaMacca .

    People will try their best to defend the exorbitant price until completely crushed down.

    They will try to hide the truth with false claims. Ignorant as high as RE Prices.

    Market is doing it and will take care of them.


    I read the link sethugm but the fact that it is repackaged in a new avataar proves it was not sold as intended even in better demand. the date is wrong saying first launched in oct 2008. the threads i have posted clearly says discussion in march. and of all the people it says the head of another firm said
    you want me to take the word of a builder. how can you be such an hypocrite
    ,condemning builders and taking their words literally when it suits you.

    check out the place and enlighten the forum.
    and regd people 'trying to defend prices' are you a thumb sucking baby for people to lead you to believing rates have not fallen. all here are rational and many people are using the gimmicks of the very builders they deride.

    calling korattur as annanagar extn,remember sethugm.and the outcry prices crashed in annanagar.and the 400/ rs auto fare for dugar in OMR.
    the people here want to know the facts and if you have data to back up your claims we welcome it. nobody can ignore facts.

    and I am here to know and share data.
    CommentQuote
  • Excellent idea! Only one thing ...

    Originally Posted by panther
    I agree with you on that. Some of these retards, driven by some crazy motivation, find it worthwhile to copy paste the same drivel on multiple forums. I cannot fathom why they do that. I am glad you pointed it out. You were quite polite, actually. I'd have used harsher language.

    Also, can someone take all of Wiseman's predictions and make it a sticky? (Mods?) I'd like to track his predictions for the next 12 months, and if even 75% of them come true, I'd personally recommend Wisey for the Nobel prize (or something equivalent)



    Great idea, panther.

    But just one thing. I have noticed in the past that , on an average, it takes 2 years for these to come to pass (don't ask me why).

    Request you to give it a full 24 months. And then call the Nobel Committee!!! :D

    Btw, did you notice. Coincidence! But today the Dow is just about to cross the 2002 low point of 7268. Btw, this was the lowest point of the previous bear market. This means the market has come down a full 100% from the start (bottom) of this cycle, quite a rare phenomenon and happens only when the bear market is a severe one!

    cheers
    CommentQuote
  • It is getting ugly, uglier than september 15th week when Lehman filed for bankruptcy. I dont think DOW is reflecting how bad the situation actually is. It is much much worser than 7500 pts.

    Central banks are buying corporate debts. Governments are printing money. Treasuries are issuing more debts.

    India will be one of the worst affected countries. We have always lived in a recession until last 3-4 years !

    During the boom time, foreign companies and individuals had some extra cash to spend. Some of that money spilled over in India. These investers are no where to be seen today. At least they are not in India. That's pretty much it.

    India is heading towards slowest growth since few years. After general election, the new govt. will be asking IMF for funds. And our growth forecast will be revised down between 4-5%. In such a populous country, if we dont grow at least 4-5% we will be in very deep trouble very quickly.

    Don't tell me just because you have "invested" in land you are expecting things will go up from here. Look at all those who have stayed invested for decades. They are devastated by the loss. All pension money is gone.

    You want to buy it just because your friend bought and think he made money in RE, why can't I. The quicker you forget about your friend, the better it will be. Just get over it. Those times are over. Period.

    Diversify your money in many banks. There is no point in pushing funds to India now. In US, FDIC guarantees upto $100000 and in UK guarantee is upto 50000GBP. In India if your banks fail, you are assured of Rs. 100000. That's it. You get nothing more.

    We have seen the good times, when you see the bad times, you and I will chicken out from buying RE. And we will see these times. I just hope that we won't endup devaluing our currency.

    It is very sad, but these are very difficult times. Money not lost is money earned.

    Thanks,
    Salim.
    CommentQuote
  • You %*&$ Connect2Sam!!!

    Originally Posted by connect2sam
    It is getting ugly, uglier than september 15th week when Lehman filed for bankruptcy. I dont think DOW is reflecting how bad the situation actually is. It is much much worser than 7500 pts.

    Central banks are buying corporate debts. Governments are printing money. Treasuries are issuing more debts.

    India will be one of the worst affected countries. We have always lived in a recession until last 3-4 years !

    Thanks,
    Salim.



    Connect2Sam (Salim),

    How dare you come to this blog with all your bearish views and try to bamboozle everyone here with your fantasies?

    Don't you see how people are madly rushing to new launches in the remotest areas and camping overnight to buy, buy, buy at any price?

    Do you not see how people are buying now in the firm conviction that prices have stagnated and this is such a good time to buy given that they will see 200% - 400% gains in only 2 years.

    How dare you prevent the youngsters from rushing in - where, you say, Angels fear to tread - and buy at any cost!

    Be off with your rascally views that spread fear and confusion amongst the innocent bakras (oops, buyers of my property) and stop them from getting the 200% that I'm giving them out of the kindness of my heart!!!

    Be off, I tell you!!!

    ********************

    Now you know how I feel ...:D

    Salim, just a spoof, don't take this seriously, just in case you decide to!!! :D

    cheers
    CommentQuote
  • DLF Chief says that house prices will go back to 1998 inflation adjusted rates as per this economic times article

    http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/Market_News/Property_rates_to_fall_by_15-20_more/articleshow/4067223.cms

    This link below gives the current inflation adjusted rate of a property worth 1 lakh in 1998 based on Indian Official inflation statistics.

    http://www.financegurukul.com/2009/02/21/india-inflation-adjusted-rate-from-1998/

    the writing is on the wall and crystal clear!
    CommentQuote
  • Originally Posted by spaul
    DLF Chief says that house prices will go back to 1998 inflation adjusted rates as per this economic times article


    This link below gives the current inflation adjusted rate of a property worth 1 lakh in 1998 based on Indian Official inflation statistics.


    the writing is on the wall and crystal clear!


    here is the statement
    "If there was a potential of 40-45% of price correction from the 2007 level, 30-35% is already factored in and rest would happen in the next three months. By then we will see a drop of maximum 20% in prices from current level, Mr Singh said, clarifying that lower prices will be visible only in the new launches. He said prices in three months will reach an inflation-adjusted level of 1998.

    dont you see the bogey in the statement, he says 30-35% already happened
    (where? in far off failed proj) and is saying max of 20% more fall from now.
    in chennai prices havent fallen much but 20 % more correction is agreed.
    he is actually preparing you to buy at a correction of 20% from current prices.
    where is the 80% crash???
    CommentQuote
  • Originally Posted by sethugm
    Gone_Mad,

    Let me make it clear that Yes I am bearish & I want to see the prices to fall to realistic levels.

    Hi All,

    Why I am bearish on RE ...

    --Sky-High prices escalated by greedy people(with no basic Infra).
    --The global recession with no possible turnaround timeline on the cards
    --90% of the retail stock investors lost 60-70 % of the investment & could not exit for the next 2 years.
    --No value for money on RE Property
    --PE Participation & Participants in RE has been decimated.
    --Bleak Economic Outlook ..Delay in Govt accepting the contraction & so delay in remedy/turnaround.
    --Worthless land/apartment with no completion time.
    --Declining Job prospects & Exports plummetting
    --Worthless beedi-smoking brokers talking in Crores and asking 2% commission without any valid document .

    Am sure many would have avoided the RE purchase because of these stupid brokers quoting in crores for worthless places.And some of my friends retarded the broker "I will give you one year time , Can you earn/save/show Rs 10000 other than this RE Cheating ?".Few of my friends decided not to hurry and let it correct automatically ...Its being done by the grace of Oversupply/Recession/GreedyLeverage and am sure many of these greedy people would be reduced to Zero or Negative in the months ahead.

    Just let me narrate another instance ..

    Seeing an ad for a Perungudi property in magicbricks advertised by an agent with Name X(there was a famous 'Tamil' thriller novelist 'Lena' ), I sent my interest which he replied.

    I sent an email asking the details of the property with the following details.

    1. Does he have the original document .. ?
    2. Whats his role/responsibility if there any problem arises on the property in the coming years ..
    3. Why he is asking 2% commission ?

    With no surprise he never replied . He may be good guy as he did not proceed further as he did not have the valid answers for my queries. Someone else would have tried further to cheat.

    My sincere thanks Mr X .

    In the country where I live currently,any sale/buy proceeds only after the Govt valuation and the Agents have to clear all the legal issues and responsible for anything arises henceforth.

    For the 3/4 th money quoted in Chennai ,I can easily buy a good house here with fantastic Infra.And I can be carefree for life as there is Zero % chances for forgery.

    When there is no Security & Infra & Job prospects, how people are expecting the price to appreciate every year by 20 percent . Can I say those as greedy/lunatics ?

    There are many guys under the pretext of prospective buyers trying to hold up the prices .

    These guys are worser than the meanest thing in the world.

    I really appreciate 2 guys in this forum clearly stating they are land/property owners & state that the prices will appreciate .Its human nature when some possibly loose something he will try his best to avoid the loss.(But one has to change his approach & avoid using bad words).

    Gone_Mad,

    Each and every one creates their own thread with their own agenda. So its very much necessary that any effort to escalate the prices further has to be abated in the interest of consumers .

    Just let us know when your (RE) project gets completed.

    You may counter with 'why not one cant be doing both MBA Project and searching property' in that case you would have made your intentions clear earlier ..FullStop..I dont want to waste my time.

    Bye


    Sethugm,
    I absolutely agree on your reasons for your bearish views! Good reasons, and well written with facts.

    About quoting my older posts and trying to know my intention, good job buddy, pulling out my older posts. But I have to ask you why did you left quoting my first post - my debut post in this forum? I am sure you'd have seen it if you had tried seeing all the posts started by me. Being in SG, working as a techie, you wouldn't have missed it, would you?

    Here are my posts in the posted date order:
    My first post on 09-03-2008
    link: https://www.indianrealestateforum.com/forum/city-forums/chennai-real-estate/3118-realestate-scenario-in-chennai?t=3321

    Originally Posted by gone_mad
    Am I trying to be really smart? or I am just another wannabe around? I don't know!

    Well, I am really new here, and I am in to get some suggestions/ideas about my 'dream home' plans. To brief about me and my earning power, I am 25, living in Chennai with my parents, working for an IT major and, earning around 50-55K rupees pm.

    I want/wishfully think to buy a property in Chennai, not as an R2I but for my own residential usage. After seeing, analyzing the property rates, cost of living, proximity to places, I have decided to stick to the southern part of Chennai, particularly Madipakkam (Northern part - Sadhasivam nagar, Ram nagar north etc). The reasons are - The locality is quite good, close proximity to Velachery MRTS and Vijayanagar bus depot, closer to OMR, rates are kind of affordable*.
    .
    .
    .



    This is my later post on 12-28-2008
    Originally Posted by gone_mad
    Hi People,

    I've been a long time observer of this forum, and this forum has made a definite impact on my decisions on dealing with money, be it with RE or other investments of late.

    Now that I'd like to get some advice / suggestions from you guys for my MBA project.
    This forum is so information rich and I'd like to utilize the information that's being shared here on my project say details about RE boom in India, recession impacts or other widely discussed hotopics.

    .
    .
    .


    Hope I HAVE made my intentions clear!
    Why on earth can one not do a job and a part time MBA?
    If you still think I am just counter blabbering, I don't care and I don't give a damn about your time. gotcha? take care, have fun!
    CommentQuote
  • Originally Posted by abk
    here is the statement
    "If there was a potential of 40-45% of price correction from the 2007 level, 30-35% is already factored in and rest would happen in the next three months. By then we will see a drop of maximum 20% in prices from current level, Mr Singh said, clarifying that lower prices will be visible only in the new launches. He said prices in three months will reach an inflation-adjusted level of 1998.

    dont you see the bogey in the statement, he says 30-35% already happened
    (where? in far off failed proj) and is saying max of 20% more fall from now.
    in chennai prices havent fallen much but 20 % more correction is agreed.
    he is actually preparing you to buy at a correction of 20% from current prices.
    where is the 80% crash???


    these builders are real smart, i dont think we should take the view of builders as they have vested intrests. post views of industry outsiders.
    CommentQuote
  • Originally Posted by spaul
    DLF Chief says that house prices will go back to 1998 inflation adjusted rates as per this economic times article

    http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/Market_News/Property_rates_to_fall_by_15-20_more/articleshow/4067223.cms

    This link below gives the current inflation adjusted rate of a property worth 1 lakh in 1998 based on Indian Official inflation statistics.

    http://www.financegurukul.com/2009/02/21/india-inflation-adjusted-rate-from-1998/

    the writing is on the wall and crystal clear!


    I feel, The calculation in the post doesnt reflect value of property worth 1 Lakh invested in 1998.

    It doesnt include the rate of returns you would get from RE.

    I will calculate as follows

    Lets assume the rate of return for RE is 20% p.a and inflation on an average was 5% p.a

    So, Inflation adjusted rate of return = 15% p.a.

    If in 1998,a property is worth Rs 1,00,000

    After 11 years(1998-2008) it would be

    1,00,000 * (1.15)^11 = Rs. 4,65,000 approx

    So, 1 Lakh worth property is not worth 1.78 Lakh but 4.65 lakhs.

    Now lets draw a parallel.

    In 1998, Mylapore/Alwarpet/TNagar was sold at around 1000-1500/sqft, so inflation,CAGR adjusted rate today should be 4650-7000/sqft.

    The current rate for the locality is 8500-12000/sqft.

    So does it mean prices will fall 50-60%, i.e. 2004-2005 level?

    Point to be noted, Prices are stagnating since 2007 end.The current rate is not 2007 rate as claimed, it was sold for 5000-8000/sqft then.

    So even, If the builders offer at 2007 rates its at 30% discount from market rate, adjusting inflation builders are claiming they are offering 40-50% discount.

    The rate rose multifolds only during the period 2004-2007.

    I feel, for properties inside the city the right expectation should be inflation and CAGR adjusted 2004-2005 level.

    The market is now stagnating and the real correction is yet to happen beyond the mirage(already 40% down) shown by the builders.

    Experts, your comments please.
    CommentQuote
  • A major assumption ...

    Originally Posted by abk
    here is the statement
    "If there was a potential of 40-45% of price correction from the 2007 level, 30-35% is already factored in and rest would happen in the next three months. By then we will see a drop of maximum 20% in prices from current level, Mr Singh said, clarifying that lower prices will be visible only in the new launches. He said prices in three months will reach an inflation-adjusted level of 1998.

    dont you see the bogey in the statement, he says 30-35% already happened
    (where? in far off failed proj) and is saying max of 20% more fall from now.
    in chennai prices havent fallen much but 20 % more correction is agreed.
    he is actually preparing you to buy at a correction of 20% from current prices.
    where is the 80% crash???


    Dear abk,

    You are making an assumption that the DLF guy knows what he is talking about. In that case, here is my question:

    If he was so good at prediction, why is DLF and every other builder in such a terrible mess - from which many will not even survive!

    Fact is, even in mid-2008 these builders were singing about the rosy future of the business. They were as badly off thee mark as almost everyone in the market - sorry, I was singing the 50% - 80% tune back in late 2006 and so will excuse myself from this crowd.

    So, assuming that he is correct in his prediction, when he has made the biggest blunder in his life in not being able to see this crash, is not very appropriate, don't you think?

    Besides, when did you ever see a RE supporter - a builder for God's sake and that too the biggest one who has the most to lose in this crash - ever say something remotely less that super-bullish about the business.

    Take it from me. If he says 35%, this figure has been dragged from his lips (imagine the ego-hit he is taking having been proven so badly off the mark) and you can safely add another 35 - 45% to it before its over!!! :D

    There you go. 80% reached :D

    cheers
    CommentQuote
  • Thanks for pointing out the missing data, I see the missing data in my calculation and would like to incorporate the missing data as Per Capita Income instead of a gut figure (?) of 20% (in your case the rate of return). Why?

    "As house prices tends to increase at an inflation adjusted rate equivalent to the per capita income - According to Karl Case, an economics professor at Wellesley College whose name adorns the S&P Case-Shiller home-price indexes, has studied U.S. house prices going back to the 1890s. He thinks that long-run pattern is likely to continue, despite the recent choppiness."

    Had to dig around for data. From the world bank website according to their atlas method of calculating per capita income, India had a per capita income of 15050 in 1998 and 38084 in 2008 (expected). So the CAGR comes to 8.81%. That makes the 1 lakh property in 1998 to cost 2.58 lakhs in 2008.

    I did not want to come across as splitting hair here... reminded of Ronald Reagan saying "In God We Trust For Everything Else Show Me The Data". Wanted hard data to backup the rate of return you assumed as 20%.

    Though i must quickly add that i do not also give much credence to the DLF chief knowing what the heck he is talking of. Even if he knows he could be trying to place a false floor to prices to help himself. Also we know that on the upside prices shoot above reasonable levels. Prices also shoots to the downside more than what is reasonable, so i will not take a bite of his numbers due the above factors

    Do let me know if i am missing something here

    Calculation and more data at
    http://www.financegurukul.com/2009/02/21/india-inflation-adjusted-rate-from-1998/
    CommentQuote