Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

What is the Impact of IT Sector Downfall on Real Estate?

Collapse
X
Collapse

What is the Impact of IT Sector Downfall on Real Estate?

Last updated: February 25 2009
115 | Posts
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts
  • #81

    #81

    Re : What is the Impact of IT Sector Downfall on Real Estate?

    Originally posted by sethugm View Post
    http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/...ow/4152263.cms

    This is not something old and could see the same in todays EconomicTimes.

    Cheers GoccaMacca .

    People will try their best to defend the exorbitant price until completely crushed down.

    They will try to hide the truth with false claims. Ignorant as high as RE Prices.

    Market is doing it and will take care of them.
    I read the link sethugm but the fact that it is repackaged in a new avataar proves it was not sold as intended even in better demand. the date is wrong saying first launched in oct 2008. the threads i have posted clearly says discussion in march. and of all the people it says the head of another firm said
    you want me to take the word of a builder. how can you be such an hypocrite
    ,condemning builders and taking their words literally when it suits you.

    check out the place and enlighten the forum.
    and regd people 'trying to defend prices' are you a thumb sucking baby for people to lead you to believing rates have not fallen. all here are rational and many people are using the gimmicks of the very builders they deride.

    calling korattur as annanagar extn,remember sethugm.and the outcry prices crashed in annanagar.and the 400/ rs auto fare for dugar in OMR.
    the people here want to know the facts and if you have data to back up your claims we welcome it. nobody can ignore facts.

    and I am here to know and share data.

    Comment

    • #82

      #82

      Re : What is the Impact of IT Sector Downfall on Real Estate?

      Excellent idea! Only one thing ...

      Originally posted by panther View Post
      I agree with you on that. Some of these retards, driven by some crazy motivation, find it worthwhile to copy paste the same drivel on multiple forums. I cannot fathom why they do that. I am glad you pointed it out. You were quite polite, actually. I'd have used harsher language.

      Also, can someone take all of Wiseman's predictions and make it a sticky? (Mods?) I'd like to track his predictions for the next 12 months, and if even 75% of them come true, I'd personally recommend Wisey for the Nobel prize (or something equivalent)

      Great idea, panther.

      But just one thing. I have noticed in the past that , on an average, it takes 2 years for these to come to pass (don't ask me why).

      Request you to give it a full 24 months. And then call the Nobel Committee!!!

      Btw, did you notice. Coincidence! But today the Dow is just about to cross the 2002 low point of 7268. Btw, this was the lowest point of the previous bear market. This means the market has come down a full 100% from the start (bottom) of this cycle, quite a rare phenomenon and happens only when the bear market is a severe one!

      cheers

      Comment

      • #83

        #83

        Re : What is the Impact of IT Sector Downfall on Real Estate?

        It is getting ugly, uglier than september 15th week when Lehman filed for bankruptcy. I dont think DOW is reflecting how bad the situation actually is. It is much much worser than 7500 pts.

        Central banks are buying corporate debts. Governments are printing money. Treasuries are issuing more debts.

        India will be one of the worst affected countries. We have always lived in a recession until last 3-4 years !

        During the boom time, foreign companies and individuals had some extra cash to spend. Some of that money spilled over in India. These investers are no where to be seen today. At least they are not in India. That's pretty much it.

        India is heading towards slowest growth since few years. After general election, the new govt. will be asking IMF for funds. And our growth forecast will be revised down between 4-5%. In such a populous country, if we dont grow at least 4-5% we will be in very deep trouble very quickly.

        Don't tell me just because you have "invested" in land you are expecting things will go up from here. Look at all those who have stayed invested for decades. They are devastated by the loss. All pension money is gone.

        You want to buy it just because your friend bought and think he made money in RE, why can't I. The quicker you forget about your friend, the better it will be. Just get over it. Those times are over. Period.

        Diversify your money in many banks. There is no point in pushing funds to India now. In US, FDIC guarantees upto $100000 and in UK guarantee is upto 50000GBP. In India if your banks fail, you are assured of Rs. 100000. That's it. You get nothing more.

        We have seen the good times, when you see the bad times, you and I will chicken out from buying RE. And we will see these times. I just hope that we won't endup devaluing our currency.

        It is very sad, but these are very difficult times. Money not lost is money earned.

        Thanks,
        Salim.

        Comment

        • #84

          #84

          Re : What is the Impact of IT Sector Downfall on Real Estate?

          You %*&$ Connect2Sam!!!

          Originally posted by connect2sam View Post
          It is getting ugly, uglier than september 15th week when Lehman filed for bankruptcy. I dont think DOW is reflecting how bad the situation actually is. It is much much worser than 7500 pts.

          Central banks are buying corporate debts. Governments are printing money. Treasuries are issuing more debts.

          India will be one of the worst affected countries. We have always lived in a recession until last 3-4 years !

          Thanks,
          Salim.

          Connect2Sam (Salim),

          How dare you come to this blog with all your bearish views and try to bamboozle everyone here with your fantasies?

          Don't you see how people are madly rushing to new launches in the remotest areas and camping overnight to buy, buy, buy at any price?

          Do you not see how people are buying now in the firm conviction that prices have stagnated and this is such a good time to buy given that they will see 200% - 400% gains in only 2 years.

          How dare you prevent the youngsters from rushing in - where, you say, Angels fear to tread - and buy at any cost!

          Be off with your rascally views that spread fear and confusion amongst the innocent bakras (oops, buyers of my property) and stop them from getting the 200% that I'm giving them out of the kindness of my heart!!!

          Be off, I tell you!!!

          ********************

          Now you know how I feel ...

          Salim, just a spoof, don't take this seriously, just in case you decide to!!!

          cheers
          Last edited February 22 2009, 11:08 PM.

          Comment

          • #85

            #85

            Re : What is the Impact of IT Sector Downfall on Real Estate?

            DLF Chief says that house prices will go back to 1998 inflation adjusted rates as per this economic times article

            http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/...ow/4067223.cms

            This link below gives the current inflation adjusted rate of a property worth 1 lakh in 1998 based on Indian Official inflation statistics.

            http://www.financegurukul.com/2009/0...ate-from-1998/

            the writing is on the wall and crystal clear!

            Comment

            • #86

              #86

              Re : What is the Impact of IT Sector Downfall on Real Estate?

              Originally posted by spaul View Post
              DLF Chief says that house prices will go back to 1998 inflation adjusted rates as per this economic times article


              This link below gives the current inflation adjusted rate of a property worth 1 lakh in 1998 based on Indian Official inflation statistics.


              the writing is on the wall and crystal clear!
              here is the statement
              "If there was a potential of 40-45% of price correction from the 2007 level, 30-35% is already factored in and rest would happen in the next three months. By then we will see a drop of maximum 20% in prices from current level, Mr Singh said, clarifying that lower prices will be visible only in the new launches. He said prices in three months will reach an inflation-adjusted level of 1998.

              dont you see the bogey in the statement, he says 30-35% already happened
              (where? in far off failed proj) and is saying max of 20% more fall from now.
              in chennai prices havent fallen much but 20 % more correction is agreed.
              he is actually preparing you to buy at a correction of 20% from current prices.
              where is the 80% crash???

              Comment

              • #87

                #87

                Re : What is the Impact of IT Sector Downfall on Real Estate?

                Originally posted by sethugm View Post
                Gone_Mad,

                Let me make it clear that Yes I am bearish & I want to see the prices to fall to realistic levels.

                Hi All,

                Why I am bearish on RE ...

                --Sky-High prices escalated by greedy people(with no basic Infra).
                --The global recession with no possible turnaround timeline on the cards
                --90% of the retail stock investors lost 60-70 % of the investment & could not exit for the next 2 years.
                --No value for money on RE Property
                --PE Participation & Participants in RE has been decimated.
                --Bleak Economic Outlook ..Delay in Govt accepting the contraction & so delay in remedy/turnaround.
                --Worthless land/apartment with no completion time.
                --Declining Job prospects & Exports plummetting
                --Worthless beedi-smoking brokers talking in Crores and asking 2% commission without any valid document .

                Am sure many would have avoided the RE purchase because of these stupid brokers quoting in crores for worthless places.And some of my friends retarded the broker "I will give you one year time , Can you earn/save/show Rs 10000 other than this RE Cheating ?".Few of my friends decided not to hurry and let it correct automatically ...Its being done by the grace of Oversupply/Recession/GreedyLeverage and am sure many of these greedy people would be reduced to Zero or Negative in the months ahead.

                Just let me narrate another instance ..

                Seeing an ad for a Perungudi property in magicbricks advertised by an agent with Name X(there was a famous 'Tamil' thriller novelist 'Lena' ), I sent my interest which he replied.

                I sent an email asking the details of the property with the following details.

                1. Does he have the original document .. ?
                2. Whats his role/responsibility if there any problem arises on the property in the coming years ..
                3. Why he is asking 2% commission ?

                With no surprise he never replied . He may be good guy as he did not proceed further as he did not have the valid answers for my queries. Someone else would have tried further to cheat.

                My sincere thanks Mr X .

                In the country where I live currently,any sale/buy proceeds only after the Govt valuation and the Agents have to clear all the legal issues and responsible for anything arises henceforth.

                For the 3/4 th money quoted in Chennai ,I can easily buy a good house here with fantastic Infra.And I can be carefree for life as there is Zero % chances for forgery.

                When there is no Security & Infra & Job prospects, how people are expecting the price to appreciate every year by 20 percent . Can I say those as greedy/lunatics ?

                There are many guys under the pretext of prospective buyers trying to hold up the prices .

                These guys are worser than the meanest thing in the world.

                I really appreciate 2 guys in this forum clearly stating they are land/property owners & state that the prices will appreciate .Its human nature when some possibly loose something he will try his best to avoid the loss.(But one has to change his approach & avoid using bad words).

                Gone_Mad,

                Each and every one creates their own thread with their own agenda. So its very much necessary that any effort to escalate the prices further has to be abated in the interest of consumers .

                Just let us know when your (RE) project gets completed.

                You may counter with 'why not one cant be doing both MBA Project and searching property' in that case you would have made your intentions clear earlier ..FullStop..I dont want to waste my time.

                Bye
                Sethugm,
                I absolutely agree on your reasons for your bearish views! Good reasons, and well written with facts.

                About quoting my older posts and trying to know my intention, good job buddy, pulling out my older posts. But I have to ask you why did you left quoting my first post - my debut post in this forum? I am sure you'd have seen it if you had tried seeing all the posts started by me. Being in SG, working as a techie, you wouldn't have missed it, would you?

                Here are my posts in the posted date order:
                My first post on 09-03-2008
                link: https://www.indianrealestateforum.co...chennai?t=3321

                Originally posted by gone_mad View Post
                Am I trying to be really smart? or I am just another wannabe around? I don't know!

                Well, I am really new here, and I am in to get some suggestions/ideas about my 'dream home' plans. To brief about me and my earning power, I am 25, living in Chennai with my parents, working for an IT major and, earning around 50-55K rupees pm.

                I want/wishfully think to buy a property in Chennai, not as an R2I but for my own residential usage. After seeing, analyzing the property rates, cost of living, proximity to places, I have decided to stick to the southern part of Chennai, particularly Madipakkam (Northern part - Sadhasivam nagar, Ram nagar north etc). The reasons are - The locality is quite good, close proximity to Velachery MRTS and Vijayanagar bus depot, closer to OMR, rates are kind of affordable*.
                .
                .
                .

                This is my later post on 12-28-2008
                Originally posted by gone_mad View Post
                Hi People,

                I've been a long time observer of this forum, and this forum has made a definite impact on my decisions on dealing with money, be it with RE or other investments of late.

                Now that I'd like to get some advice / suggestions from you guys for my MBA project.
                This forum is so information rich and I'd like to utilize the information that's being shared here on my project say details about RE boom in India, recession impacts or other widely discussed hotopics.

                .
                .
                .
                Hope I HAVE made my intentions clear!
                Why on earth can one not do a job and a part time MBA?
                If you still think I am just counter blabbering, I don't care and I don't give a damn about your time. gotcha? take care, have fun!

                Comment

                • #88

                  #88

                  Re : What is the Impact of IT Sector Downfall on Real Estate?

                  Originally posted by abk View Post
                  here is the statement
                  "If there was a potential of 40-45% of price correction from the 2007 level, 30-35% is already factored in and rest would happen in the next three months. By then we will see a drop of maximum 20% in prices from current level, Mr Singh said, clarifying that lower prices will be visible only in the new launches. He said prices in three months will reach an inflation-adjusted level of 1998.

                  dont you see the bogey in the statement, he says 30-35% already happened
                  (where? in far off failed proj) and is saying max of 20% more fall from now.
                  in chennai prices havent fallen much but 20 % more correction is agreed.
                  he is actually preparing you to buy at a correction of 20% from current prices.
                  where is the 80% crash???
                  these builders are real smart, i dont think we should take the view of builders as they have vested intrests. post views of industry outsiders.

                  Comment

                  • #89

                    #89

                    Re : What is the Impact of IT Sector Downfall on Real Estate?

                    Originally posted by spaul View Post
                    DLF Chief says that house prices will go back to 1998 inflation adjusted rates as per this economic times article

                    http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/...ow/4067223.cms

                    This link below gives the current inflation adjusted rate of a property worth 1 lakh in 1998 based on Indian Official inflation statistics.

                    http://www.financegurukul.com/2009/0...ate-from-1998/

                    the writing is on the wall and crystal clear!
                    I feel, The calculation in the post doesnt reflect value of property worth 1 Lakh invested in 1998.

                    It doesnt include the rate of returns you would get from RE.

                    I will calculate as follows

                    Lets assume the rate of return for RE is 20% p.a and inflation on an average was 5% p.a

                    So, Inflation adjusted rate of return = 15% p.a.

                    If in 1998,a property is worth Rs 1,00,000

                    After 11 years(1998-2008) it would be

                    1,00,000 * (1.15)^11 = Rs. 4,65,000 approx

                    So, 1 Lakh worth property is not worth 1.78 Lakh but 4.65 lakhs.

                    Now lets draw a parallel.

                    In 1998, Mylapore/Alwarpet/TNagar was sold at around 1000-1500/sqft, so inflation,CAGR adjusted rate today should be 4650-7000/sqft.

                    The current rate for the locality is 8500-12000/sqft.

                    So does it mean prices will fall 50-60%, i.e. 2004-2005 level?

                    Point to be noted, Prices are stagnating since 2007 end.The current rate is not 2007 rate as claimed, it was sold for 5000-8000/sqft then.

                    So even, If the builders offer at 2007 rates its at 30% discount from market rate, adjusting inflation builders are claiming they are offering 40-50% discount.

                    The rate rose multifolds only during the period 2004-2007.

                    I feel, for properties inside the city the right expectation should be inflation and CAGR adjusted 2004-2005 level.

                    The market is now stagnating and the real correction is yet to happen beyond the mirage(already 40% down) shown by the builders.

                    Experts, your comments please.
                    Last edited February 23 2009, 11:39 AM.

                    Comment

                    • #90

                      #90

                      Re : What is the Impact of IT Sector Downfall on Real Estate?

                      A major assumption ...

                      Originally posted by abk View Post
                      here is the statement
                      "If there was a potential of 40-45% of price correction from the 2007 level, 30-35% is already factored in and rest would happen in the next three months. By then we will see a drop of maximum 20% in prices from current level, Mr Singh said, clarifying that lower prices will be visible only in the new launches. He said prices in three months will reach an inflation-adjusted level of 1998.

                      dont you see the bogey in the statement, he says 30-35% already happened
                      (where? in far off failed proj) and is saying max of 20% more fall from now.
                      in chennai prices havent fallen much but 20 % more correction is agreed.
                      he is actually preparing you to buy at a correction of 20% from current prices.
                      where is the 80% crash???
                      Dear abk,

                      You are making an assumption that the DLF guy knows what he is talking about. In that case, here is my question:

                      If he was so good at prediction, why is DLF and every other builder in such a terrible mess - from which many will not even survive!

                      Fact is, even in mid-2008 these builders were singing about the rosy future of the business. They were as badly off thee mark as almost everyone in the market - sorry, I was singing the 50% - 80% tune back in late 2006 and so will excuse myself from this crowd.

                      So, assuming that he is correct in his prediction, when he has made the biggest blunder in his life in not being able to see this crash, is not very appropriate, don't you think?

                      Besides, when did you ever see a RE supporter - a builder for God's sake and that too the biggest one who has the most to lose in this crash - ever say something remotely less that super-bullish about the business.

                      Take it from me. If he says 35%, this figure has been dragged from his lips (imagine the ego-hit he is taking having been proven so badly off the mark) and you can safely add another 35 - 45% to it before its over!!!

                      There you go. 80% reached

                      cheers

                      Comment

                      Have any questions or thoughts about this?
                      Working...
                      X