Hi All,

I was looking for a land (2400 sq.ft) or independant home in Alwarthirunagar or Valasaravakkam area (near Arcot Road) around June of 2008. The brokers quoted from 90L to 1.2C for a independant home in those areas. It was out of my reach. So I thought of waiting for the prices to reduce.

Anyone knows what is the current rate for 1 ground of Land (2400sq.ft) in those areas?

Should I wait for some more time for the prices to reduce? Any comments?

Also just curious to know if this place "Alapakkam" close to Valasaravakkam is a decent area? Any ideas?

Thanks
kvinayag
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  • any updates on the prices in this area? its been some time
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  • Any updates will be appreciated
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  • any updates on the near by areas atleast?

    such as Virugambakkam, KK nagar.....
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  • how will price fall when stocks improve?

    every one talks about price falling, but in reality it is expected that by the end of the year the sen would touch 16K, assuming such a rising trend there will be cash around so in my the reverse may happen that is prices would go up and the global situation is improving as well,perhaps now is the right time and not after 6 months.
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  • Originally Posted by kkkumar
    every one talks about price falling, but in reality it is expected that by the end of the year the sen would touch 16K, assuming such a rising trend there will be cash around so in my the reverse may happen that is prices would go up and the global situation is improving as well,perhaps now is the right time and not after 6 months.

    Excellent, some one with sense around. All the best. If I said Nifty at 9000 in next 3 years many on this board will be shocked and some will laugh at me! Well wait and see! As for RE doubling is nothing, most likely another equal rise that took place between 2003 and now will repeat again in similar amount of time.
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  • I assume like KKKumar there are some sane folks slowly getting to realise the false propaganda of the bears here. It is time to buy. Nobody told BUY in 2002-3, and those who bought then are sitting on fat profits. None of these charlatans like Wisey will tell u to buy when market bottoms out. They will tell u to buy at the top. If you dont realise the bottom now it is for you to own up to your fault.
    Cheers.
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  • What would be the meaning of "Global situation improving"?

    Originally Posted by kkkumar
    every one talks about price falling, but in reality it is expected that by the end of the year the sen would touch 16K, assuming such a rising trend there will be cash around so in my the reverse may happen that is prices would go up and the global situation is improving as well,perhaps now is the right time and not after 6 months.



    KKKumar,

    What precisely would you mean by "Global Situation improving"? Thats a very general, feel-good statement.

    Sensx touching 16k still implies that it still remains 25% below the previous high (which is a serious fall by most definitions of recession anywhere in the world) and would have recovered 61% of the fall to 7695 (which is a fibonacci number). What you left unsaid is more meaningful than what you said. Then, after rallying 61%, there is also a good chance of it falling back to 12000 or even 10000 if the Dow forms a new low because of a double-dip recession in 2010 in the US. What then do you think will happen to the feel-good factor and the sentiment of early jumpers into RE who will then again see some more decline in volume and price?

    When people say the recession will be over by end-2009, it simply means that the markets cannot keep on falling to zero (that happens only in the fertile minds of people who don't know better). But markets can and will stay for a long period significantly below the previous peaks - across all asset classes excet maybe Gold and Silver (bullion). These 2 will form higher peaks over the 2007-08 peaks. That is why they are considered the only lasting form of money.

    And by 16k Sensx, why would there be cash around? The world will still be significantly weaker economically than in 2007, there would be much less cash in the form of credit being made available (remember the Govt is likely to suck up most of the credit available just to keep the pretence of GDP growth going) and most things would be in deflation, including salaries and disposable incomes.

    Besides for prices to run away, all the existing inventory must be sold. When do you see that happening? I don't see current inventory clearance for at least 2-3 years from now.

    So, don't count on prices of anything running away (except maybe food items as the monsoon situation is still quite bleak - just because the press stopped reporting does not mean the rains have fallen in abundance)! At least not for a few years. The next boom in RE is at least 8-10 years away, going by the last such cycle (and maybe longer given the severity of this recession).

    As I said in another post, you are of course free to jump in and buy asap since you probably haven't gotten rid of the boomtime feeling of buy-before-prices-run-away. Nats thrives on the fears of such people!!!

    cheers
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  • Ignorance is Bliss!!!

    Originally Posted by Natarajg007
    I assume like KKKumar there are some sane folks slowly getting to realise the false propaganda of the bears here. It is time to buy. Nobody told BUY in 2002-3, and those who bought then are sitting on fat profits. None of these charlatans like Wisey will tell u to buy when market bottoms out. They will tell u to buy at the top. If you dont realise the bottom now it is for you to own up to your fault.
    Cheers.



    The fundamental difference between 2002 recession and this depression is that there is no Greenspan to blow another bubble to replace the RE bubble. The last time around, the Dot Com bubble was cut short by the FED criminally keeping interest rates low and flooding the system with easy credit, which the crooks in RE and investment banks misused to con the general public that RE prices will gain in double digits for eternity.

    If anyone has any doubts about this plain fact and reason behind the previous boom, please go back to doing your homework.

    This time around there is no yet-another-bubble being blown. So, where is the repeat of the 2002 situation coming up? If you do not know the underlying reasons for the bubble, then you can never tell the difference between one bottom and another. You fall into the typical trap of correlation equals causation!

    This decline is different from every other decline since World War 2. This is more akin to the one in 1930s (though it may play out differently). India is a $1 Trillion economy. US is a $14 Trillion economy. Besides we are so weak an eonomy that if the Govt decides to borrow a little money, there is little else left for the other segments to borrow and grow.

    The tail has never been said to wag the dog!:D This time around, there is not going to be a 6 times increase of property from 2009 Dec prices to the 2015 timeline. I would rather think that the 2007 prices may come back around the 2015 timeline which essentially gives you a zero return in the 8 year period and a negative return if you consider opportunity loss!

    cheers
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  • prop cost will never ever come down, NO HOW?

    dear Mr wise, thanks for all ur analysis,and in re a waiting time of three years is ok,otherwise one shouldnot think of re investment,the returns are far far superior than any other asset assuming u are prepared to wait.even when the sen went to below eight there was no proportional decline in prices atleast not in chennai,what u say may be true some fifty km from chennai,there is every reason to think that things are improving,most incs are posting good profits and the bailout is working,nevertheless dont compare chennai with the rest of india,lets see the ground realities, chennai is totally a different situation all together,costs may go down elsewhere but never in chennai, yes if the seller is desperate probably he may drop a bit,that is some thing anyone would do even in boom times, chennai is considered one of the best place to live according to business today,hardly any place around,
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  • Originally Posted by kkkumar
    every one talks about price falling, but in reality it is expected that by the end of the year the sen would touch 16K, assuming such a rising trend there will be cash around so in my the reverse may happen that is prices would go up and the global situation is improving as well,perhaps now is the right time and not after 6 months.


    I will say in this crazy world, mumbai index can even hit 30000, 40000 or even 100,000.

    But that will be in nominal terms not real terms. If that happens the cash which you have will be worth nothing, it will have less value than toilet paper.

    But government will not allow that, because in a hyper inflationary environment where stock market rises like crazy and prices of food, oil everything rising like crazy: The government will lose its control

    India will become like Zimbabwe. 100K% hyper inflation

    So stock indexes going to 20k or 40K is not the real barometer.

    How much you personally gained or lost in all this in real terms is the true barometer of your success and your preparation.
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  • Deflation is the future

    But don't worry such a hyper inflationary scenario will not happen, because as explained above Government will lose its control of people if hyper inflation happens.

    So what is most likely to happen is Deflation.

    In deflation government can still control people so this will be their choice.

    In deflation, prices of everything will come down in Rupee terms. Prices of food, oil, housing, education etc will come down. But even incomes will come down.

    But for those who have always saved it will be really good news because in Deflation, you can buy for Rs.25000 what all you can buy now for Rs.50000.

    So Deflation is what will happen and if you (1) don' have debts (2) and have always saved money in banks in FDs, savings account and have cash: You will be happiest person
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  • Except for one commodity ...

    Originally Posted by contra
    But don't worry such a hyper inflationary scenario will not happen, because as explained above Government will lose its control of people if hyper inflation happens.

    So what is most likely to happen is Deflation.

    In deflation government can still control people so this will be their choice.

    In deflation, prices of everything will come down in Rupee terms. Prices of food, oil, housing, education etc will come down. But even incomes will come down.

    But for those who have always saved it will be really good news because in Deflation, you can buy for Rs.25000 what all you can buy now for Rs.50000.

    So Deflation is what will happen and if you (1) don' have debts (2) and have always saved money in banks in FDs, savings account and have cash: You will be happiest person



    I suppose most people would not have noticed the important headline in today's papers. In fact there were 2 news items of great significance for this year!

    First, the center banned the export of foodgrain from today.

    Second, the Govt has decided to subsidise 50% of the diesel cost of farmers to help them tide over the coming crisis (note that not even 1 month has gone by and already the Govt has started pumping up on unplanned deficit expenditure!).

    Third, the Govt is in serious emergency planning - Montek says that it is still not too late for monsoon to return back to normal. It was said that 15 july was the last date after which we may expect for a hit on our agricultural output. Today its a full 10 days later and they are still praying for sufficient rains!

    Simultaneously Australia, one of the large exporters of foodgrain, has also had severe shortage of rainfall and is falling back on groundwater. They too are saying that this year they may not be able to export much.

    Generally speaking, there is likely to be largescale shortage in wheat and other foodgrain output. Expect this segment to have substantial inflationary pressures.

    cheers
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  • chennai RE price will never fall, No How ?

    Dear Mr wise man, if u expect the price to fall ,why are u still holding to ur property?infact u should buy now not after 6 months, just wait and see, the sen shoot and the bears will be proved decisively wrong, already the bail out is working and companies are moving forward, let me tell u chennai is not to be compared to the price drop in the rest of india,yes if someone is desperate he may sell it a bit cheap but never at a loss,u cant call that as a drop in price,the prices may drop perhaps fifty km outside chennai, chennai is considered to be among the best place to live,chennai is unique in several fronts. What i wish to reiterate is among all the investment avenues investing in chennai re will yield superior returns no matter what theory u use.
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  • Originally Posted by wiseman
    KKKumar,

    What precisely would you mean by "Global Situation improving"? Thats a very general, feel-good statement.

    Sensx touching 16k still implies that it still remains 25% below the previous high (which is a serious fall by most definitions of recession anywhere in the world) and would have recovered 61% of the fall to 7695 (which is a fibonacci number). What you left unsaid is more meaningful than what you said. Then, after rallying 61%, there is also a good chance of it falling back to 12000 or even 10000 if the Dow forms a new low because of a double-dip recession in 2010 in the US. What then do you think will happen to the feel-good factor and the sentiment of early jumpers into RE who will then again see some more decline in volume and price?

    When people say the recession will be over by end-2009, it simply means that the markets cannot keep on falling to zero (that happens only in the fertile minds of people who don't know better). But markets can and will stay for a long period significantly below the previous peaks - across all asset classes excet maybe Gold and Silver (bullion). These 2 will form higher peaks over the 2007-08 peaks. That is why they are considered the only lasting form of money.

    And by 16k Sensx, why would there be cash around? The world will still be significantly weaker economically than in 2007, there would be much less cash in the form of credit being made available (remember the Govt is likely to suck up most of the credit available just to keep the pretence of GDP growth going) and most things would be in deflation, including salaries and disposable incomes.

    Besides for prices to run away, all the existing inventory must be sold. When do you see that happening? I don't see current inventory clearance for at least 2-3 years from now.

    So, don't count on prices of anything running away (except maybe food items as the monsoon situation is still quite bleak - just because the press stopped reporting does not mean the rains have fallen in abundance)! At least not for a few years. The next boom in RE is at least 8-10 years away, going by the last such cycle (and maybe longer given the severity of this recession).

    As I said in another post, you are of course free to jump in and buy asap since you probably haven't gotten rid of the boomtime feeling of buy-before-prices-run-away. Nats thrives on the fears of such people!!!

    cheers

    Well looks like Wiseman's mind is infertile (based on his comment above)!
    And the darling guy is stating that HISTORY repeats as he talks about a cycle. Is Bigbear his friend listening? Did Warren Buffet tell Bigbear that History repeats for Wiseman alone!
    These bears surely are crazy beyond doubt!
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  • Originally Posted by kkkumar
    Dear Mr wise man, if u expect the price to fall ,why are u still holding to ur property?infact u should buy now not after 6 months, just wait and see, the sen shoot and the bears will be proved decisively wrong, already the bail out is working and companies are moving forward, let me tell u chennai is not to be compared to the price drop in the rest of india,yes if someone is desperate he may sell it a bit cheap but never at a loss,u cant call that as a drop in price,the prices may drop perhaps fifty km outside chennai, chennai is considered to be among the best place to live,chennai is unique in several fronts. What i wish to reiterate is among all the investment avenues investing in chennai re will yield superior returns no matter what theory u use.

    Kumar, Reasoning with Wiseman is more difficult than with a stone! Just FYI. Cheers.
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