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Property price in Alwarthirunagar, Valasaravakkam

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Property price in Alwarthirunagar, Valasaravakkam

Last updated: July 6 2011
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  • #41

    #41

    Re : Property price in Alwarthirunagar, Valasaravakkam

    Originally posted by kkkumar View Post
    every one talks about price falling, but in reality it is expected that by the end of the year the sen would touch 16K, assuming such a rising trend there will be cash around so in my the reverse may happen that is prices would go up and the global situation is improving as well,perhaps now is the right time and not after 6 months.
    I will say in this crazy world, mumbai index can even hit 30000, 40000 or even 100,000.

    But that will be in nominal terms not real terms. If that happens the cash which you have will be worth nothing, it will have less value than toilet paper.

    But government will not allow that, because in a hyper inflationary environment where stock market rises like crazy and prices of food, oil everything rising like crazy: The government will lose its control

    India will become like Zimbabwe. 100K% hyper inflation

    So stock indexes going to 20k or 40K is not the real barometer.

    How much you personally gained or lost in all this in real terms is the true barometer of your success and your preparation.

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    • #42

      #42

      Re : Property price in Alwarthirunagar, Valasaravakkam

      Deflation is the future

      But don't worry such a hyper inflationary scenario will not happen, because as explained above Government will lose its control of people if hyper inflation happens.

      So what is most likely to happen is Deflation.

      In deflation government can still control people so this will be their choice.

      In deflation, prices of everything will come down in Rupee terms. Prices of food, oil, housing, education etc will come down. But even incomes will come down.

      But for those who have always saved it will be really good news because in Deflation, you can buy for Rs.25000 what all you can buy now for Rs.50000.

      So Deflation is what will happen and if you (1) don' have debts (2) and have always saved money in banks in FDs, savings account and have cash: You will be happiest person
      Last edited July 25 2009, 01:19 PM.

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      • #43

        #43

        Re : Property price in Alwarthirunagar, Valasaravakkam

        Except for one commodity ...

        Originally posted by contra View Post
        But don't worry such a hyper inflationary scenario will not happen, because as explained above Government will lose its control of people if hyper inflation happens.

        So what is most likely to happen is Deflation.

        In deflation government can still control people so this will be their choice.

        In deflation, prices of everything will come down in Rupee terms. Prices of food, oil, housing, education etc will come down. But even incomes will come down.

        But for those who have always saved it will be really good news because in Deflation, you can buy for Rs.25000 what all you can buy now for Rs.50000.

        So Deflation is what will happen and if you (1) don' have debts (2) and have always saved money in banks in FDs, savings account and have cash: You will be happiest person

        I suppose most people would not have noticed the important headline in today's papers. In fact there were 2 news items of great significance for this year!

        First, the center banned the export of foodgrain from today.

        Second, the Govt has decided to subsidise 50% of the diesel cost of farmers to help them tide over the coming crisis (note that not even 1 month has gone by and already the Govt has started pumping up on unplanned deficit expenditure!).

        Third, the Govt is in serious emergency planning - Montek says that it is still not too late for monsoon to return back to normal. It was said that 15 july was the last date after which we may expect for a hit on our agricultural output. Today its a full 10 days later and they are still praying for sufficient rains!

        Simultaneously Australia, one of the large exporters of foodgrain, has also had severe shortage of rainfall and is falling back on groundwater. They too are saying that this year they may not be able to export much.

        Generally speaking, there is likely to be largescale shortage in wheat and other foodgrain output. Expect this segment to have substantial inflationary pressures.

        cheers

        Comment

        • #44

          #44

          Re : Property price in Alwarthirunagar, Valasaravakkam

          chennai RE price will never fall, No How ?

          Dear Mr wise man, if u expect the price to fall ,why are u still holding to ur property?infact u should buy now not after 6 months, just wait and see, the sen shoot and the bears will be proved decisively wrong, already the bail out is working and companies are moving forward, let me tell u chennai is not to be compared to the price drop in the rest of india,yes if someone is desperate he may sell it a bit cheap but never at a loss,u cant call that as a drop in price,the prices may drop perhaps fifty km outside chennai, chennai is considered to be among the best place to live,chennai is unique in several fronts. What i wish to reiterate is among all the investment avenues investing in chennai re will yield superior returns no matter what theory u use.

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          • #45

            #45

            Re : Property price in Alwarthirunagar, Valasaravakkam

            Originally posted by wiseman View Post
            KKKumar,

            What precisely would you mean by "Global Situation improving"? Thats a very general, feel-good statement.

            Sensx touching 16k still implies that it still remains 25% below the previous high (which is a serious fall by most definitions of recession anywhere in the world) and would have recovered 61% of the fall to 7695 (which is a fibonacci number). What you left unsaid is more meaningful than what you said. Then, after rallying 61%, there is also a good chance of it falling back to 12000 or even 10000 if the Dow forms a new low because of a double-dip recession in 2010 in the US. What then do you think will happen to the feel-good factor and the sentiment of early jumpers into RE who will then again see some more decline in volume and price?

            When people say the recession will be over by end-2009, it simply means that the markets cannot keep on falling to zero (that happens only in the fertile minds of people who don't know better). But markets can and will stay for a long period significantly below the previous peaks - across all asset classes excet maybe Gold and Silver (bullion). These 2 will form higher peaks over the 2007-08 peaks. That is why they are considered the only lasting form of money.

            And by 16k Sensx, why would there be cash around? The world will still be significantly weaker economically than in 2007, there would be much less cash in the form of credit being made available (remember the Govt is likely to suck up most of the credit available just to keep the pretence of GDP growth going) and most things would be in deflation, including salaries and disposable incomes.

            Besides for prices to run away, all the existing inventory must be sold. When do you see that happening? I don't see current inventory clearance for at least 2-3 years from now.

            So, don't count on prices of anything running away (except maybe food items as the monsoon situation is still quite bleak - just because the press stopped reporting does not mean the rains have fallen in abundance)! At least not for a few years. The next boom in RE is at least 8-10 years away, going by the last such cycle (and maybe longer given the severity of this recession).

            As I said in another post, you are of course free to jump in and buy asap since you probably haven't gotten rid of the boomtime feeling of buy-before-prices-run-away. Nats thrives on the fears of such people!!!

            cheers
            Well looks like Wiseman's mind is infertile (based on his comment above)!
            And the darling guy is stating that HISTORY repeats as he talks about a cycle. Is Bigbear his friend listening? Did Warren Buffet tell Bigbear that History repeats for Wiseman alone!
            These bears surely are crazy beyond doubt!

            Comment

            • #46

              #46

              Re : Property price in Alwarthirunagar, Valasaravakkam

              Originally posted by kkkumar View Post
              Dear Mr wise man, if u expect the price to fall ,why are u still holding to ur property?infact u should buy now not after 6 months, just wait and see, the sen shoot and the bears will be proved decisively wrong, already the bail out is working and companies are moving forward, let me tell u chennai is not to be compared to the price drop in the rest of india,yes if someone is desperate he may sell it a bit cheap but never at a loss,u cant call that as a drop in price,the prices may drop perhaps fifty km outside chennai, chennai is considered to be among the best place to live,chennai is unique in several fronts. What i wish to reiterate is among all the investment avenues investing in chennai re will yield superior returns no matter what theory u use.
              Kumar, Reasoning with Wiseman is more difficult than with a stone! Just FYI. Cheers.

              Comment

              • #47

                #47

                Re : Property price in Alwarthirunagar, Valasaravakkam

                Originally posted by kkkumar View Post
                Dear Mr wise man, if u expect the price to fall ,why are u still holding to ur property?infact u should buy now not after 6 months, just wait and see, the sen shoot and the bears will be proved decisively wrong, already the bail out is working and companies are moving forward, let me tell u chennai is not to be compared to the price drop in the rest of india,yes if someone is desperate he may sell it a bit cheap but never at a loss,u cant call that as a drop in price,the prices may drop perhaps fifty km outside chennai, chennai is considered to be among the best place to live,chennai is unique in several fronts. What i wish to reiterate is among all the investment avenues investing in chennai re will yield superior returns no matter what theory u use.
                Wiseman probably buys Cipla again and again at the old price in his dreams and does not invest in RE?

                Comment

                • #48

                  #48

                  Re : Property price in Alwarthirunagar, Valasaravakkam

                  sen already 16

                  Dear mr wise, the sen is already 16 ,I said it will touch 16 by the year end, but u see it already now, TELL ME WHO IS RIGHT?? as u said its all a cycle, so now the wheel is moving up and do u want it to rocket so that u cant aford? So be pragmatic, and once more treat chennai differently from the rest of the pack. See the past trend and project the future,its as simple as that, CAN U HONESTLY TELL ME A AREA IN PROPER CENTRAL CHENNAI WHERE IT HAS DROPED

                  Comment

                  • #49

                    #49

                    Re : Property price in Alwarthirunagar, Valasaravakkam

                    hi

                    i personally know a recent transaction in the heart of kilpauk,1200 sqft flat,3 years old ,sold for 72 lacs thats 6000 rs per sqft.presently in that same area news flats are in the range of 10600 eg praveen housing.

                    Comment

                    • #50

                      #50

                      Re : Property price in Alwarthirunagar, Valasaravakkam

                      you are all over the place kumar ...

                      Originally posted by kkkumar View Post
                      Dear mr wise, the sen is already 16 ,I said it will touch 16 by the year end, but u see it already now, TELL ME WHO IS RIGHT?? as u said its all a cycle, so now the wheel is moving up and do u want it to rocket so that u cant aford? So be pragmatic, and once more treat chennai differently from the rest of the pack. See the past trend and project the future,its as simple as that, CAN U HONESTLY TELL ME A AREA IN PROPER CENTRAL CHENNAI WHERE IT HAS DROPED

                      kumar,

                      I don't get it. In the previous post you told me that I was trying to sell. Then in the next sentence you ask, why am I not buying? Does this make sense to you?!

                      Second, there is a lot of emotion in your post mixed with some data about Sensx 16k, etc. Then there is a question whether there is any place in Central Chennai where prices have dropped?

                      So, it appears that you are trying hard to convince yourself that we are not in a recession in RE. Have you seriously been reading up all of the stuff others have been posting?

                      Let us clear the confusion first. Sensx 16k is still 24% down from the peak and the talk on the streets is that markets are already running ahead of corporate performance. Watch the Sensx in the next 3-4 months. Also watch where it goes in 2010 and then tell me that the Sensx is running away upwards!!!

                      As for RE, lets take the data already provided on the ground. For example, Boat Club area had a peak price level of 25k per SFt in 2007. Today its around 18k per SFt (thats 28% down in Boat Club, which is the costliest part of town!). Secondly volumes are down anywhere from 50% upwards all the way to 90% in some areas. Someone was kind enough to provide prices from 2004 in many localities in Chennai. And it was rather comprehensive and much appreciated by the more knowledgeable people in this community. In that, it was quite clear that prices even in upmarket areas of Central Chennai were rather down significantly. More importantly volumes were completely down!

                      The definition of a recession includes price as well as volumes!!! Please note, both are down!

                      Secondly, I am trying to sell and not buy. In my opinion, selling even now is going to be good for me in the long run because I expect a fall from these levels even bigger than the fall from peaks to these levels. That means, if Chennai prices have fallen 25%, then in the next 2-3 years I expect an even bigger fall of 25% or more.

                      When the prices are attractive to buy, I will come back into the market with the cash I hold and an even more enthusiasm to buy than you currently have about RE, rest assured!!!

                      Time will tell. In the meantime, please do not get carried away with emotion. Read the data and evaluate dispassionately, since only that kind of analysis will see you make prudent decisions and make money for you in the long run!

                      cheers
                      Last edited August 6 2009, 12:07 AM.

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