For months on end I am noticing the bear talking. However regularly even those bears come to this forum and cry "price is not falling......... but it will fall.. it will have to fall". So they agree they have been wrong the whole of last 8 months with their bear cry but believe they will become right suddenly.
Those of you who are imagining property prices will fall might be woken up by hard news. For one, in bangalore prices are slowly inching up. In Chennai it never fell.
In most places shady guys like DLF with as much penchant for book keeping as Satyam are being pushed down by the stock market, but that is not because their land banks have become cheaper. It is because their books show non existing land banks.
Sooner or later RE will start shooting up and the imaginary correction and even worse the imagined fall of 70% by some will turn into a disaster for these bears with a rise of 100% in the next year or two.
Even stock market is at such lows that investors with sense are returning. SO if you are prudent, buy when it is supposedly falling and sell when it is supposedly rising. LEssons of 2003 when it suddenly started up after the dotcom drop should be used by investors, not listening to funny bear voices on this board.
Forget the hallucinating bears. THey belong to the land of the lotus eaters.
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  • Originally Posted by ks2071746
    Dear friend,

    Better wait for another 6 months.

    ks2071746


    posh localities are owned by well to do people and house is the last thing they will sell.and in india it is next to impossible to vacate tenantswhich will hamper people willing to sell.all said and done many like you are waiting and will wait for some more time,as wiseman has also agreed it migtn take 6 mts or 2 -3 yrs for crash to happen.
    if it is for your own use or the first dreamhouse,buy it friend,the next place may not be to your liking.
    now i dont have to give a lecture that your earnings may not be the same in the future and blah blah.
    if you can afford it then flaunt it.
    life has to be lived,this moment will never return even for all the money you save by waiting for the crash.
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  • Originally Posted by REGuru
    Wiseman is saying we have lot of regulation, law today,
    yet the Satyam scandal worth 7000+ crore was carried out successfully.
    I dont think there is any adequate measure to curb the black money in India.
    (If we raid everyone/home,I bet India will be the richest country in the world...):)
    Also,with RE rocketing by atleast 300%, how many ppl do you think got their salary or income atleast doubled,
    during the boom period from 2004 - 2008?
    I think the boom period was mainly carried out by Black Money.....Its my opinion....
    Unless my source of income dried up or I'm in deep financial trouble, I will not sell RE for loss.
    Only if supply exceeds demand the prices will come down
    Demand still exists; its only postponement not decline
    Prices will stagnate not come down much...Chennai is still in its peak...


    Friend

    If chennai RE is at peak anyone can sell their property in no time.

    But it is not so. then how can you tell it is at peak.

    moreover price is gradually coming down. even then no transaction is happening .

    There is no demand. If one is willing to sell a plot, and if there are many buyers that means demand. In that case only there will be price escalation because of urgency from the buyers.

    thanks

    chataara
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  • Originally Posted by chataara
    Friends
    It is immaterial why wiseman did not sell his property beforehand.
    When the requirement arises then only one will think of selling the property.
    Thanks
    chataara

    Chatara, you were waiting for Wiseman to reply a few days ago. Now you seem to have been BRIBED to write as if you know why he did not sell. The point is not why he sells or not, it is that a guy like him who tells all and sundry to sell is wanting to wait and sell, especially when he is imagining prices will fall. Isnt he a terrible LIAR?
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  • Originally Posted by wiseman
    Madrasi,

    Why I sold or didn't sell is a purely personal matter. It would be in the same league as my asking you why you did not visit the loo this morning :D! No offence, but you get the picture. This is NOT a soap opera or a reality show where all participants are expected to bare all (pun intended ;))

    As Chataara says, wholly immaterial to the forum (and its other members; except to totally wasteful guys like Nats who likes to pry into others personal matters since he has nothing better to do).

    Whats important is that, I have been consistent about my view on the coming crash in property prices. And my intent to sell property before its too late is consistent with my view. Whether I sold in Sep or get to sell now is a matter of timing and has other parameters affecting it, but please note that the intent is to sell asap.

    What you don't seem to understand - don't know in what other way I can state it to get you to understand - is that its wholly illogical that while Nats is seemingly bullish about the market and is goading everyone to "buy before its too late" he, on the other hand is a seller instead of following his own advice and being a buyer. That appears to me to be a first rate con job which will have the buyer holding the can while he ends up holding he cash for mistakes he made (similar to whats happening with the Bankers in the US, if you know what I mean).

    Of course, you are all too welcome to go buy his property at his prices if you so desire (and that is none of my business!!!)

    Anyway all this is too silly to continue with. Happy to tell you that the sale is in process with firm quotes (all white) in excess of 2c per ground (obviously won't tell you how much, will I? :))

    And obviously, I don't have silly excuses as to why I did not sell because one side of the buyers mustache was pink :D:D:D

    cheers

    Wiseman, I dont plan to send you pink chaddis, but certainly you will be welcome in Ram sena. So much for your insensitivity.
    a. U state u will sell when u want. That is fair, but not when u ask everyone else to sell desperately as if the sky is falling.
    b. U r the one who states that u want a better price than even the 2.5cr u supposedly have got, but then u aint selling for 2.5cr. Does it not mean that u r expecting price to go up? Or u r lying. Logically U R A LIAR ANYWAY.
    c. If u think I am a seller u r wrong. I hold realestate for decades. I will sell them if I need money OR if I get a fantastic price. I can always seek a fantastic price.
    Finally nice to know that u sold it for 2c plus. After all that is what ur property is worth and that is what u r worth. If u were smart as u claim u would have got it off for ur own claim of 3c or 2.5c. In other words u r just a RANTER on this board.
    Now the hard fact is when u actually collect the money and dont know how to keep it safe! LOL!
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  • Originally Posted by REGuru
    Wiseman is saying we have lot of regulation, law today,
    yet the Satyam scandal worth 7000+ crore was carried out successfully.
    I dont think there is any adequate measure to curb the black money in India.
    (If we raid everyone/home,I bet India will be the richest country in the world...):)
    Also,with RE rocketing by atleast 300%, how many ppl do you think got their salary or income atleast doubled,
    during the boom period from 2004 - 2008?
    I think the boom period was mainly carried out by Black Money.....Its my opinion....
    Unless my source of income dried up or I'm in deep financial trouble, I will not sell RE for loss.
    Only if supply exceeds demand the prices will come down
    Demand still exists; its only postponement not decline
    Prices will stagnate not come down much...Chennai is still in its peak...

    REGuru, Wiseman is from Utopia and that too an utopia of his own. So ur arguments dont hold water with him.
    Think of this. The same guy asks everyone to sell, but wont sell his property even when he supposedly got more than TOO GOOD deals for them. He is just a LOST CHARACTER deciding whether to sell his land or not. Nothing more. If you want fun, argue with WIseman, otherwise dont waste ur time on him, as LOGIC and WISEMAN are like the POLES.
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  • Originally Posted by Natarajg007
    Chatara, you were waiting for Wiseman to reply a few days ago. Now you seem to have been BRIBED to write as if you know why he did not sell. The point is not why he sells or not, it is that a guy like him who tells all and sundry to sell is wanting to wait and sell, especially when he is imagining prices will fall. Isnt he a terrible LIAR?



    Dear Nataraj
    I am not writing in favour of anybody. NO need for that. It is not fair to insist the same question whenever you make counter argument with wisey.
    If my view is different from yours, and if you say simply that I am bribed for that reason the problem is not mine.
    It is solely yours. Write something useful... write something with LOGIC...

    thanks

    chataara
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  • Originally Posted by madrasi
    posh localities are owned by well to do people and house is the last thing they will sell.and in india it is next to impossible to vacate tenantswhich will hamper people willing to sell.all said and done many like you are waiting and will wait for some more time,as wiseman has also agreed it migtn take 6 mts or 2 -3 yrs for crash to happen.
    if it is for your own use or the first dreamhouse,buy it friend,the next place may not be to your liking.
    now i dont have to give a lecture that your earnings may not be the same in the future and blah blah.
    if you can afford it then flaunt it.
    life has to be lived,this moment will never return even for all the money you save by waiting for the crash.


    Dear friend,

    I liked your specific words" if it is for your own use or the first dream house, buy it friend, the next place may not be to your liking." It is quite right and I fully agree with you.

    ks2071746:)
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  • I too agree with madrasi :)
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  • Originally Posted by chataara
    Dear Nataraj
    I am not writing in favour of anybody. NO need for that. It is not fair to insist the same question whenever you make counter argument with wisey.
    If my view is different from yours, and if you say simply that I am bribed for that reason the problem is not mine.
    It is solely yours. Write something useful... write something with LOGIC...

    thanks

    chataara

    Chatara, I have seen both your faces over the last few months and I know what you are upto! As for WIseman, he talks big but when a point blank question is put up to him, he shamelessly wriggles off like a worm.
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  • Our Hallucinating bears dont seem to know some basic truth about markets in general. There are two things which are very different but these folks confuse them or rather use those terms incorrectly.
    One is Price. The other is Volume. Price is as all folks know a function of Demand. Volume may or may not be related to Demand in a generic way. So in Chennai or for that matter in most places in India, lots of Volume was created in the past few years in UNKNOWN PLACES, read that again UNKNOWN PLACES by the ITES industry. This industry filled with many CLERKS of today who use an XLS for double entry book keeping calling themselves SW literate were paid a bit more, not for their Software (SW) skills but because they knew some English the only language Americans knew. So when Americans have gone under, these guys are in trouble. So volume of RE in India (I will use Chennai to be specific) has dried up a bit. However where did these ITES guys buy? Anywhere where it was Affordable. So they made UNKNOWN PLACES, known. Sholinganallur was some offbeat place, these guys bought there. Sriperumbudur is famous for Rajiv and Dhanu, not for RE but today that is booming or should I say was booming.
    Now these places will be in trouble, especially the flats there as the ITES guys are in deep trouble or potential deep trouble.
    Now demand is another thing. Has there not been any demand before 2003? Even then price of land in Mylapore was around 40L to 60L per ground. Now at that time in Sholinganallur land might have been sold for acres, it was 5L for acre in ECR in 2003-4! Now city centre prices are dictated by a different set of buyers not the ITES types. So they may not fall because of ITES fall but OMR prices are set by ITES and they can fall easily.
    So dont confuse Demand for RE in CHennai. It existed, it exists and will exists. After all where will people go and live ... not in the Vayal (agricultural land) unless u r a farmer.
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  • Bears are continue to hallucinate even after YOY growth in Vehicles sales in Feb 2009. Think of it, anyone will a car with lesser preference to a first house. So if cars are getting sold dime a dozen why wont RE get its deal?
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  • Originally Posted by Natarajg007
    Bears are continue to hallucinate even after YOY growth in Vehicles sales in Feb 2009. Think of it, anyone will a car with lesser preference to a first house. So if cars are getting sold dime a dozen why wont RE get its deal?


    Arvind Saxena, senior vice-president, marketing and sales, Hyundai, said February sales this year are high because customers did not cars in the same month last year as they expected duty cuts in the Budget. As a result, sales were deferred to March, which saw impressive numbers.
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  • Originally Posted by Natarajg007
    Bears are continue to hallucinate even after YOY growth in Vehicles sales in Feb 2009. Think of it, anyone will a car with lesser preference to a first house. So if cars are getting sold dime a dozen why wont RE get its deal?


    Dear friend,

    You will agree cars are not investments but for convenience or even for pleasure or status symbol for a few years. RE are invesments mostly for long term and of heavy value with one's life time savings or on huge loans. RE will get its deal, may not be in the present juncture, but surely sometime later. After all, most investments in RE are bound to appreciate in the long term perspective and only the rate of return may vary depending on the time of purchase, the time of sale etc.

    ks2071746
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  • Sorry, we do know about markets ...

    Originally Posted by ks2071746
    Dear friend,

    You will agree cars are not investments but for convenience or even for pleasure or status symbol for a few years. RE are invesments mostly for long term and of heavy value with one's life time savings or on huge loans. RE will get its deal, may not be in the present juncture, but surely sometime later. After all, most investments in RE are bound to appreciate in the long term perspective and only the rate of return may vary depending on the time of purchase, the time of sale etc.

    ks2071746



    ks,

    There is research done on the kindof investments we make during our lifetime. The biggest investment is a home. You will be surprised that its the car which forms the second biggest investment during our lifetime (a close one is Gold, but how many of you have bought gold worth 1 crore?).

    There is one more thing. In a post in this thread, Nats would have you believe that some of us "do not know markets". I assume he means RE markets.

    Then he goes on to say how price is different from volume. And how we are confusing volume decline with price decline.

    Now I will show you that not only do we know markets, we also know a little bit more about markets than him and that it is in fact he who does not know markets at all!!!

    If you refer to one of my ealier posts (several, in fact) I have made it very clear that the peculiarity of RE markets is as follows:

    1. The RE markrt first declines in volumes. From a level of say 100, volume takes around 1 - 1.5 years to decline to around 10 (a 90% drop). These are indicative figures.

    2. Once volume declines are completed and cannot go down anymore, prices start declining and take another 1 - 1.5 years to hit its bottom. In the last fall, the average was between 50% - 60%. The peak fall was around 80%.

    I also gave the reason for this. The home being the largest investment that any person makes in his/her lifetime, there is extreme pressure (both from within and society) to NOT sell at any cost. This is tied to concepts like, "once you lose it, you will never get it back" and so on - he very same scare-mongering techniques Nats is so cleverly playing on you guys to sell his property or to keep prices up.

    Second, the investment alrerady made into these is so high that, if a person sells at a disadvantage, he'she is in real danger of losing all their lifetime savings.

    But remember, the longer you wait to sell in a downturn, the harder it gets (volume crash) and the lower the price (greater the loss). Since these are non-recourse loans (meaning you are on the hook for the loss all your life), you will lose a substantial part of your lifesaving.

    Finally a lesson in basic economics to a person who points fingers at others about their knowledge of economics.

    The Price/Voume or indifference curve in Economics looks at the relationship (the curve) that relates price as well as volume with the basis that at every price point there is a specific demand, tending to zero at infinite price - an asymptotic curve.

    So much for you economics knowledge, Nats. And your knowledge of markets!!!

    cheers
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  • predictions and modern art

    Originally Posted by wiseman
    ks,

    There is research done on the kindof investments we make during our lifetime. The biggest investment is a home. You will be surprised that its the car which forms the second biggest investment during our lifetime (a close one is Gold, but how many of you have bought gold worth 1 crore?).

    There is one more thing. In a post in this thread, Nats would have you believe that some of us "do not know markets". I assume he means RE markets.

    Then he goes on to say how price is different from volume. And how we are confusing volume decline with price decline.

    Now I will show you that not only do we know markets, we also know a little bit more about markets than him and that it is in fact he who does not know markets at all!!!

    If you refer to one of my ealier posts (several, in fact) I have made it very clear that the peculiarity of RE markets is as follows:

    1. The RE markrt first declines in volumes. From a level of say 100, volume takes around 1 - 1.5 years to decline to around 10 (a 90% drop). These are indicative figures.

    2. Once volume declines are completed and cannot go down anymore, prices start declining and take another 1 - 1.5 years to hit its bottom. In the last fall, the average was between 50% - 60%. The peak fall was around 80%.

    I also gave the reason for this. The home being the largest investment that any person makes in his/her lifetime, there is extreme pressure (both from within and society) to NOT sell at any cost. This is tied to concepts like, "once you lose it, you will never get it back" and so on - he very same scare-mongering techniques Nats is so cleverly playing on you guys to sell his property or to keep prices up.

    Second, the investment alrerady made into these is so high that, if a person sells at a disadvantage, he'she is in real danger of losing all their lifetime savings.

    But remember, the longer you wait to sell in a downturn, the harder it gets (volume crash) and the lower the price (greater the loss). Since these are non-recourse loans (meaning you are on the hook for the loss all your life), you will lose a substantial part of your lifesaving.

    Finally a lesson in basic economics to a person who points fingers at others about their knowledge of economics.

    The Price/Voume or indifference curve in Economics looks at the relationship (the curve) that relates price as well as volume with the basis that at every price point there is a specific demand, tending to zero at infinite price - an asymptotic curve.

    So much for you economics knowledge, Nats. And your knowledge of markets!!!

    cheers


    what you say wiseman is based on incidents or scenarios happened hithertho and the effects on the economy.these are extrapolated and fitted in the current scenario.
    the predictions are relative and may follow the if.... then logic.
    my point is the ifs do not match fully and therefore the 'then' would not match.
    can we apply the pure economist's parameters and ignore other factors which are exclusive to nations and their economies.
    the banks and their regulators,for instance.
    the basic needs of the population,their passion and obsessions.
    their way of thinking,their priorities.

    the predictions are like modern art. once a kid went to the art gallery.
    he stared at an exhibit for a long time.an art lover walked upto him explained
    "son, that is supposed to be a mother and child"
    the kid replied "then why is nt it so ?.
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