For months on end I am noticing the bear talking. However regularly even those bears come to this forum and cry "price is not falling......... but it will fall.. it will have to fall". So they agree they have been wrong the whole of last 8 months with their bear cry but believe they will become right suddenly.
Those of you who are imagining property prices will fall might be woken up by hard news. For one, in bangalore prices are slowly inching up. In Chennai it never fell.
In most places shady guys like DLF with as much penchant for book keeping as Satyam are being pushed down by the stock market, but that is not because their land banks have become cheaper. It is because their books show non existing land banks.
Sooner or later RE will start shooting up and the imaginary correction and even worse the imagined fall of 70% by some will turn into a disaster for these bears with a rise of 100% in the next year or two.
Even stock market is at such lows that investors with sense are returning. SO if you are prudent, buy when it is supposedly falling and sell when it is supposedly rising. LEssons of 2003 when it suddenly started up after the dotcom drop should be used by investors, not listening to funny bear voices on this board.
Forget the hallucinating bears. THey belong to the land of the lotus eaters.
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  • What you say is true ... and

    Originally Posted by abk
    what you say wiseman is based on incidents or scenarios happened hithertho and the effects on the economy.these are extrapolated and fitted in the current scenario.
    the predictions are relative and may follow the if.... then logic.
    my point is the ifs do not match fully and therefore the 'then' would not match.
    can we apply the pure economist's parameters and ignore other factors which are exclusive to nations and their economies.
    the banks and their regulators,for instance.
    the basic needs of the population,their passion and obsessions.
    their way of thinking,their priorities.

    the predictions are like modern art. once a kid went to the art gallery.
    he stared at an exhibit for a long time.an art lover walked upto him explained
    "son, that is supposed to be a mother and child"
    the kid replied "then why is nt it so ?.



    abk,

    You are right. And yet, there is considerable validity in the kind of assumptions one makes to try and predict the future.

    Take the case of marketers who can predict to a good level of accuracy the specific ing patterns within specific age groups. So, for example we can surmise that in the 20s single people employed in specific industries will have the following spread of expenditure - of course there will be exceptions but exceptions always exist in all cases. Then when people get married and have kids, we can predict, again with a fair level of accuracy, the kind of spending patterns and spread across categories among this age-group (profile includes other parameters) of people.

    This is because, not only do researchers use mathematical formulae but actually derive these formulae by trying to fit them to actual patterns seen in the data - as you say looking at past behavior and trying to predict the future simultaneously applying constraints to match real world conditions.

    So, how well you match the changing conditions in the real-world with the model you are using determines how accurate you are going to be.

    So, I'm not talking about this particular house number so-and-so on such-and-such street will decline by yy%. But that is not my attempt in the first place.

    I'm trying to get a range and then design my behavior based on which range is hit. So, I will say that if price declines 60% I can 2000 SFt flat and if it comes down only 40% I can afford only 1400 SFt. The idea is to figure out a ballpark figure and decide your strategies.

    Life is itself a moving target. How many times have you waited for exact situation to happen before taking action. If you did that, you would forever be paralysed.

    cheers
    CommentQuote
  • Originally Posted by wiseman
    abk,

    You are right. And yet, there is considerable validity in the kind of assumptions one makes to try and predict the future.

    Take the case of marketers who can predict to a good level of accuracy the specific ing patterns within specific age groups. So, for example we can surmise that in the 20s single people employed in specific industries will have the following spread of expenditure - of course there will be exceptions but exceptions always exist in all cases. Then when people get married and have kids, we can predict, again with a fair level of accuracy, the kind of spending patterns and spread across categories among this age-group (profile includes other parameters) of people.

    This is because, not only do researchers use mathematical formulae but actually derive these formulae by trying to fit them to actual patterns seen in the data - as you say looking at past behavior and trying to predict the future simultaneously applying constraints to match real world conditions.

    So, how well you match the changing conditions in the real-world with the model you are using determines how accurate you are going to be.

    So, I'm not talking about this particular house number so-and-so on such-and-such street will decline by yy%. But that is not my attempt in the first place.

    I'm trying to get a range and then design my behavior based on which range is hit. So, I will say that if price declines 60% I can 2000 SFt flat and if it comes down only 40% I can afford only 1400 SFt. The idea is to figure out a ballpark figure and decide your strategies.

    Life is itself a moving target. How many times have you waited for exact situation to happen before taking action. If you did that, you would forever be paralysed.

    cheers

    Well Wisey Madey, I think ABK told you precisely how stupid you were. Now you talk from your silly management background about data collection. What else do you guys do anyway? Other than collecting some data and interpretting it anyway you choose whether scientific or not, and mostly illogical to the core.
    Now Wise clown, think of it. You were talking all this based on what happened there (for you it is always USA) but not what happens here.
    In India there is hardly any LIVEABLE AREA beyond the cities. I might live in a suburb of US city and live comfortably. To name a few I have lived in Coriapolis in DC area, a small town, in Beaverton in Oregon (all these for short time frames) and in houses. These are like living in a village in Chengalpet. However quality of life is fantastic.
    In TN can you do that. NH4 diversion (is it called NH45, I forget) that runs to Hosur from Vellore is a beautiful road. However will any one choose to build a house and live beside it, unless you have a vested interest in that locality.
    In TN you can probably live in Chennai, Coimbatore and a few other cities. Again in Chennai you cant move beyond a central area of Adayar and its suburbs, TNagar and it suburbs etc. So even Tambaram looks like JUST GETTING DEVELOPED though the suburban train existed since very long ago and I have used it since 70s.
    So what does that mean to our so called Economist who talks about Price/Volume curve without even knowing what he is talking about.
    a. Value of RE in these DEVELOPED LIVEABLE areas may never shrink.
    b. Non developed areas dont develop fast unless there is a boom. So Urapakkam plot of ours which I have never seen till 2004 has become a saleable proposition. Now if it has reached a level of maturity it wont crash again.
    c. Even though our Mylapore appam will think only that is madras, Saligramam and Palavakkam are NO LESS DEVELOPED.
    d. In effect I am talking about RE in such developed places.
    e. As for useless land like your chela Chats talks about for 600sqft, patta in some corner of Porur, which was and will always be non usable, prices can change drastically.
    Finally Wiseman, I am yet curious to know if you managed to sell your land in RK Salai. If you got a seller than you are wrong as you were desperate to sell! If you did not get a seller then did you reduce the price is my next question?
    Finally if you think I am rising price of RE, you are mad. I am just trying to analyse price of RE in a SANE way which I am sure wont fit your brains!
    Remember HOUSE IN AMERICAN sense is different like the WIFE! In India how many times have you changed your wife for you to change your house?
    Think and talk Wisey Moron! Dont just write because you get paid Rs 15 per post!
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  • Originally Posted by Natarajg007
    In TN you can probably live in Chennai, Coimbatore and a few other cities. !


    Oh! what a great discovery!!

    In TN people are living in hundreads of towns. This guy says one can live only in 2 or 3 towns.

    Because he wants to sell his land in chennai (saligramam) he argues people can not live in other places
    CommentQuote
  • Originally Posted by Nataraajg007
    Oh! what a great discovery!!

    In TN people are living in hundreads of towns. This guy says one can live only in 2 or 3 towns.

    Because he wants to sell his land in chennai (saligramam) he argues people can not live in other places



    Dear friend

    In TN if Mr. Nat goes out of Chennai jurisdiction automatically he will lose his life. Again If his body enters in the areas of Bangalore he will get life again.

    Thanks

    chataara
    CommentQuote
  • Another thing I posted long ago ...

    Herer's yet another point I made long ago when all other people thought it was impossible:

    Last year, around August, I posted that situation will become so bad that RE companies loaded with debt are likely to collapse under that load coupled with crashing volumes and high inventory.

    Here is an article:

    RBI verifying solvency of 10 RE Firms

    Mumbai: The Reserve Bank of India is examining the books of ten real estate companies to verify their solvency and assess the systemic risks arising from possible defaults by these companies on various loans and public deposits.

    Sources close to the development said the exercise followed concerns expressed by bankers over possible large-scale defaults in loans and deposits, which may have implications for the entire system.

    The companies identified for assessment are DLF, Indiabulls Real Estate, Unitech, HDIL, Mahindra Lifespace, Peninsular Land, Ansal Properties, Phoenix Mills, Anantraj Industries and Akruti Citi Limited.

    Sources said these real estate companies had raised long-term loans from banks and had placed commercial paper amounting to thousand of crores to raise short-term financing from the mutual funds.

    The mutual funds, in turn, got a major part of the subscription to their schemes from the banks who held public deposits. This means a default on even a single commercial paper will impact the mutual funds, the banks and ultimately public deposits.

    Large-scale borrowing has distorted the normal debt equity ratio for most of the companies and made them highly leveraged. RBI is of the view that the debt is being camouflaged in cases where the ratio meets standard norms.

    Source: Business Standard

    check this out at
    ]http://news.in.msn.com/business/article.aspx?cp-documentid=1968070

    Epecially note the last point in highlight! Chors!!!

    cheers

    Epecially note the last point in highlight! Chors!!!

    cheers
    CommentQuote
  • Indian Urban Vs US urban

    Hi Guys,
    What Nats had observed the affiuent US suburbs and the poor inner city. The opposite in places like India so Nats you were living in the affluent part of US In North America its called the donut effect and in India its the opposite.

    Can :p
    CommentQuote
  • Originally Posted by wiseman
    Herer's yet another point I made long ago when all other people thought it was impossible:

    Last year, around August, I posted that situation will become so bad that RE companies loaded with debt are likely to collapse under that load coupled with crashing volumes and high inventory.

    Here is an article:

    RBI verifying solvency of 10 RE Firms

    Mumbai: The Reserve Bank of India is examining the books of ten real estate companies to verify their solvency and assess the systemic risks arising from possible defaults by these companies on various loans and public deposits.

    Sources close to the development said the exercise followed concerns expressed by bankers over possible large-scale defaults in loans and deposits, which may have implications for the entire system.

    The companies identified for assessment are DLF, Indiabulls Real Estate, Unitech, HDIL, Mahindra Lifespace, Peninsular Land, Ansal Properties, Phoenix Mills, Anantraj Industries and Akruti Citi Limited.

    Sources said these real estate companies had raised long-term loans from banks and had placed commercial paper amounting to thousand of crores to raise short-term financing from the mutual funds.

    The mutual funds, in turn, got a major part of the subscription to their schemes from the banks who held public deposits. This means a default on even a single commercial paper will impact the mutual funds, the banks and ultimately public deposits.

    Large-scale borrowing has distorted the normal debt equity ratio for most of the companies and made them highly leveraged. RBI is of the view that the debt is being camouflaged in cases where the ratio meets standard norms.

    Source: Business Standard

    check this out at
    ]http://news.in.msn.com/business/article.aspx?cp-documentid=1968070

    Epecially note the last point in highlight! Chors!!!

    cheers
    Again Wiseman talks one thing and concludes something else. RE company prices do not dictate RE prices directly. No doubt a collapse of a few companies will reduce prices, but a loss of profit is not going to kill RE prices. Wiseman you are the BEST in talking BULLSHIT! Enjoy
    Again Wiseman talks one thing and concludes something else. RE company prices do not dictate RE prices directly. No doubt a collapse of a few companies will reduce prices, but a loss of profit is not going to kill RE prices. Wiseman you are the BEST in talking BULLSHIT! Enjoy
    Again Wiseman talks one thing and concludes something else. RE company prices do not dictate RE prices directly. No doubt a collapse of a few companies will reduce prices, but a loss of profit is not going to kill RE prices. Wiseman you are the BEST in talking BULLSHIT! Enjoy
    Again Wiseman talks one thing and concludes something else. RE company prices do not dictate RE prices directly. No doubt a collapse of a few companies will reduce prices, but a loss of profit is not going to kill RE prices. Wiseman you are the BEST in talking BULLSHIT! Enjoy
    CommentQuote
  • Originally Posted by can
    Hi Guys,
    What Nats had observed the affiuent US suburbs and the poor inner city. The opposite in places like India so Nats you were living in the affluent part of US In North America its called the donut effect and in India its the opposite.

    Can :p

    Can, You CAN transform me to a US suburb in your hallucination! LOL!
    CommentQuote
  • One of the strangest behaviour of members on this board is that they will tell anything to claim RE has to fall in Chennai when quite the opposite is happening. And it has been happening for the past 1 year.
    So until these bears give up prices may actually start shooting up. I for one expect that when the bubble talk begins, it is time to and not sell. Cheers.
    CommentQuote
  • hallucination

    Originally Posted by Natarajg007
    Can, You CAN transform me to a US suburb in your hallucination! LOL!

    Your present post are either hallucination or rabidness so cool your heels and stick to RE topics with some data or topics to support stop throwing your shit around
    Can :D
    CommentQuote
  • Originally Posted by Natarajg007
    One of the strangest behaviour of members on this board is that they will tell anything to claim RE has to fall in Chennai when quite the opposite is happening. And it has been happening for the past 1 year.
    So until these bears give up prices may actually start shooting up. I for one expect that when the bubble talk begins, it is time to and not sell. Cheers.



    Dear Nat.

    Whatever U preach here will not help U s ell your coovum plots.

    Stop boasting about your saligramam and urappakam lands.

    thanks

    chataara
    CommentQuote
  • Originally Posted by chataara
    Dear Nat.

    Whatever U preach here will not help U s ell your coovum plots.

    Stop boasting about your saligramam and urappakam lands.

    thanks

    chataara

    I thought you already bought all my coovum plots for you lay your eggs! LOL!
    CommentQuote
  • Originally Posted by Natarajg007
    I thought you already bought all my coovum plots for you lay your eggs! LOL!


    Dear Nat

    Yes you can sell your rate hole to egg laying hens and ducks only. Best of luck in advance to find a real duck.

    Go and daydream again to find one.

    Thanks

    chataara
    CommentQuote
  • Originally Posted by chataara
    Dear Nat

    Yes you can sell your rate hole to egg laying hens and ducks only. Best of luck in advance to find a real duck.

    Go and daydream again to find one.

    Thanks

    chataara

    Do you rate holes Chatara?
    CommentQuote
  • Originally Posted by Natarajg007
    Do you rate holes Chatara?



    Dear Nat

    I will never 'rate' your holes.

    thanks

    chataara
    CommentQuote