For months on end I am noticing the bear talking. However regularly even those bears come to this forum and cry "price is not falling......... but it will fall.. it will have to fall". So they agree they have been wrong the whole of last 8 months with their bear cry but believe they will become right suddenly.
Those of you who are imagining property prices will fall might be woken up by hard news. For one, in bangalore prices are slowly inching up. In Chennai it never fell.
In most places shady guys like DLF with as much penchant for book keeping as Satyam are being pushed down by the stock market, but that is not because their land banks have become cheaper. It is because their books show non existing land banks.
Sooner or later RE will start shooting up and the imaginary correction and even worse the imagined fall of 70% by some will turn into a disaster for these bears with a rise of 100% in the next year or two.
Even stock market is at such lows that investors with sense are returning. SO if you are prudent, buy when it is supposedly falling and sell when it is supposedly rising. LEssons of 2003 when it suddenly started up after the dotcom drop should be used by investors, not listening to funny bear voices on this board.
Forget the hallucinating bears. THey belong to the land of the lotus eaters.
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  • Originally Posted by wiseman

    Selling half of what you launched still means you have ADDED to inventory, which is already HUGE!

    RE companies are adding to inventory even when they try to raise their turnover to a fraction of their highs in 2007. So, here we have the picture you all must try to get ...

    They are drowning in debt, which was raised to support sales much higher than 2007 sales!

    Today, when they try to launch and sell a fraction of 2007 volumes, they only land up with even more inventory on their hands.

    Therefore they are truly stuck! The only way out is to eliminate debt which is in excess and bring it down to levels to support current sales. Which implies eliminating as much as 50% or even 70% of current debt.

    And just how are builders going to do it? Since almost all their debt is stuck in unsold and many times unfinished inventory. The only way to do this is to clear inventory, not add to it!!!:p

    And when they finally realise this and come to market to clear, then they have to either crash prices to raise volumes OR simply drown in debt and go bankrupt.

    This guy is the limit, desperately touting an industry report (aimed at conning people sitting the fence to jump in) as a sign of broader revival!:D

    Anyone with any doubts about RE industry conditions, this is a clear signal that industry is well and truly stuck and to come back to earlier health, they have to clear inventories at distress prices. Jump in at your own peril. Be prepared to see your "homes" underwater for quite a while and be prepared to keep paying EMI while seeing value under your purchase price (including interest paid)!


    When you talk about increased sales, this comedian talks about old inventory. Well if the trend changes and moves up, it is bullish, not bearish. Unfortunately our comedian is used to stating "meesaiyile mun ottale" (mud didnt stick to the moustache).
    This comedian was predicting that RE will collapse just an year ago in 2008. It just did not. Now he says it will sooner or later. Actually RE is looking up. He will continue saying prices will fall (even if the sane bear Nabhishek clearly states that sales are increasing!). This Wisey joker then talks about RE companies and their collapse. Can we say that Lehman collapsed so all MBAs will be in trouble, all finance jobs will be gone so dont study MBA or that Wisey should learn something other than his M.A. and MBA (assuming he did one!!) as MBAs are in trouble because of Lehmann.
    The problem with this joker is, he will keep repeating to infinity that RE will collapse. So when price is 1 Wisey will say it will fall by 1, and price moves to 10. He tells it will fall to 1 and it moves to 100, then he repeats until it moves to 1000.
    From 1000 it falls to 999. Wisey then celebrates since it has fallen by 1. Infact his insane followers will burst crackers. The problem with those followers is lack of knowledge of Maths and Language (English). Fall to 1 and fall by 1 are same to them.
    Let us allow Wisey to repeat his parroting. He is paid to write for some bear cause. If I upset him, he is scared that his paymasters wont pay him. Even now he has a backlog of 1year payment since I started to show him to be a comedian. If I upset him further his paymasters will leave him high and dry and Wisey wont be able to get his next meal. So let me ignore Wisey for a while!