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Hallucinating Bears

Last updated: August 5 2009
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  • #81

    #81

    Re : Hallucinating Bears

    Originally posted by wiseman View Post
    Nats,

    It doesn't matter where. Wherever someone has a problem selling you seem to have bought land there and also have hordes of buyers breaking down your door to give you 3 times the price!

    You live permanently in dreamland where you are your own hero. Talk of narcissism! ROTFL
    Wisey, You can interpret anything as stupidly as no one else can. The first of it is calling yourself Wise! And then talking about Narcissism. What a pity this board is having to put up with a Great Liar like you!

    Comment

    • #82

      #82

      Re : Hallucinating Bears

      Originally posted by Natarajg007 View Post
      Wisey, You can interpret anything as stupidly as no one else can. The first of it is calling yourself Wise! And then talking about Narcissism. What a pity this board is having to put up with a Great Liar like you!
      And an even bigger liar and coward like you ...

      cheers

      Comment

      • #83

        #83

        Re : Hallucinating Bears

        Originally posted by Natarajg007 View Post
        Even now I am not saying India will go up because of US. Did I say that. It is for the clumsy bears like you to understand that you guys neither understand US market or Indian market and are just the fellas who missed the bus and are hoping that it will come back.
        You know the sardarji joke. He daily visited the cinema where when the bathing scene was on, a train will cross and prevent him from seeing the heroine in full glory. He repeatedly visited assuming that one day the train will come late.
        You bears are like that! All the best!
        Being sardarji is better compared to people quoting 5000,10000,15000(read nats) in pandiarajan movie

        Comment

        • #84

          #84

          Re : Hallucinating Bears

          Originally posted by BigBear View Post
          Being sardarji is better compared to people quoting 5000,10000,15000(read nats) in pandiarajan movie
          Were you acting in the Pandiarajan film?

          Comment

          • #85

            #85

            Re : Hallucinating Bears

            For the Hallucinating Bears!

            Mumbai-The Most Preferred Destination For Realty Investment
            A recently conducted survey, "Trend in residential space across top cities in the current scenario", ranked India's financial capital, Mumbai as the most preferred destination to invest in property while in the south, Chennai was the first place for property investments, overtaking Bangalore. Cities like Patna, Nashik, Tiruchirapalli and Madurai have also become favourite destinations for property investments, the survey said. More than 3,000 people from the metros and other cities, including Pune, Thane, Coimbatore, Ahmedabad and Vadodara participated in the survey.

            above...from...************ newsletter

            Comment

            • #86

              #86

              Re : Hallucinating Bears

              Did they also mention that they would invest at the highest price?

              Originally posted by Natarajg007 View Post
              Mumbai-The Most Preferred Destination For Realty Investment
              A recently conducted survey, "Trend in residential space across top cities in the current scenario", ranked India's financial capital, Mumbai as the most preferred destination to invest in property while in the south, Chennai was the first place for property investments, overtaking Bangalore. Cities like Patna, Nashik, Tiruchirapalli and Madurai have also become favourite destinations for property investments, the survey said. More than 3,000 people from the metros and other cities, including Pune, Thane, Coimbatore, Ahmedabad and Vadodara participated in the survey.

              above...from...************ newsletter
              You are stating the obvious, Nats. It does not need a survey to see that Mumbai is the most preferred investment region.

              Incidentally, where in the survey did you read that these people are also interested in paying the highest 2007 prices? After all, that is the only point under discussion, right? Not the location, but the price! Why do you confuse yourself so much by pitching the wrong conclusions for the discussion and muddling the whole thing up?

              It would have been much better if you brought up a survey where people opined about their thoughts on price!!! Besides, this survey is put out by 99acres which otherwise you curse so much ...

              cheers

              Comment

              • #87

                #87

                Re : Hallucinating Bears

                Wisey you are too boring. Gimme a break will you!

                Comment

                • #88

                  #88

                  Re : Hallucinating Bears

                  As the bears are dead!

                  Now that the bears are slowly disappearing, there is not much point in arguing if market will go up or down. Rather the topic of discussion needs to change to HOW MUCH will the market go up!
                  I was surprised to find an analyst on CNBC state that market will create new highs same time next year. This is about stocks. Let us see how this affects RE which is our space of discussion. Now when Nifty went up from 2003 Sep, RE was almost static in Chennai though in Bangalore it shot up to almost 80% of its peak by 2004 end/2005. In Chennai the game began then. By 2007 mid, Bangalore was slowing down in its ascent while Chennai peaked out only in late 2008. Chennai has already started its upmove after consolidation with the phrase Chennai ahead of Bangalore and as the numero uno RE market in South as of now.
                  This is primarily because in Chennai the infrastructure has developed pretty visibly even compared to my lovely Bangalore. Also in Chennai the local govt is in sync with the Delhi govt, so they get what they want. Given all this while Bangalore will continue to be the Silicon valley of India atleast for 50 years, Chennai will be the Detroit, TN will have Manchester and so on of India. Also Chennai is expandable. At the same time Chennai wasis are terrible CITY CENTRIC. They yet think of Mylapore and TNagar!
                  Given all this I would propose that
                  a. Chennai city centre like Mylaps, TNags, Adayars etc will continue to grow CONTINOUSLY. Harrington roads and Nungambakkams and Boat clubs will continue to hold the glamour.
                  b. Attachments to these like the West Mambalams, Saidapets, Palavakkams, Velacheries, AnnaNagars (even Mogappairs) and so on will grow the maximum in terms of percentage growth in the next 5 years.
                  c. The next periphery like ECR, OMR, GST, CTH, Porur and beyond will grow rapidly.
                  d. The growth beyond Chengalpet, Tiruvallur, Siruseri and so on will stagnate and will only burst up in the final phase of this upmove.
                  How high is the upmove?
                  Nifty from 1400 to 6300 in 2003 to 2008 made Chennai move up about 6 to 8 times (land prices). When Nifty skipped to 2500 RE moved down about 10% atbest in prime places and 20% in the wilderness. This again is for Flats. I dont know if any worthwhile land ever got transacted at a lower price!
                  So now with the upmove from 2500 to 4500 the RE has caught up any move backs in the past one year, for flats. For land the price has already started peaking out. So if you are smart mathematically you should use price of RE (read land) today which is about the same as in 2008 peak in Chennai and use 3500 (average of 2500 and 4500) on Nifty to calculate percentage growth. In other words I would say if Nifty went to 10500 that is tripled from 3500 I expect land prices to triple in Chennai in the same period. If Nifty even takes out 6300 I expect land prices to almost double.
                  In other words Nifty consolidation was steep as it is a trader's market. RE however being an investor and NECESSARY commodity DID NOT BUCKLE THAT MUCH. (oops I am talking of buckling as in aerospace! soon I need to talk of shear force!!!)
                  So if you are a wise investor and you expect the statement that a new high will happen in Nifty to be correct then you know how much Chennai will give in RE.
                  Now all I said is a straight line approximation for the maths illiterate readers. In reality the RE move will be logarithmic. So when Nifty doubles it might actually move up 80% but when it quadrapules RE might move up not 300% but maybe 600%.
                  In other words in the next 5 years if Indian economy shines and Nifty is going up as told my so called stock market experts and economists then believe me, RE will give you the sky!
                  Again dont mis read me. RE I meant was land and land only.
                  So if you buy flat the growth will be based on percentage of land content, quality of construction (to determine depreciation) etc.
                  Welcome to the world of the bull in RE. If you miss this bus, you might need another 25-30 years to again get a bus and you know how old and ineffective you will be then. Ofcourse you can always please yourself by saying Chennai will sink in the sea by then and feel happy that you are paying only a high rent for a shanty shed in RK Salai! Cheers.

                  Comment

                  • #89

                    #89

                    Re : Hallucinating Bears

                    Home Buyers Back In The Market - A Respite For Realtors
                    It seems that realty sector is on the path of recovery, with developers reporting an improvement in apartment sales in the three months ended June compared with previous quarters, although there's no boom yet. Parsvnath Developers Ltd sold 400 apartments (600,000-700,000 sq. ft) across segments compared with sales of just 70-80 apartments during the preceding quarter. Sales figures in the residential market have picked up in Mumbai and the National Capital Region centred on New Delhi in recent months, with demand increasing for affordable housing. As per a 13 July report by Motilal Oswal Securities Ltd, developers such as DLF, Unitech Ltd, Indiabulls Real Estate Ltd, Housing Development and Infrastructure Ltd and Puravankara Projects Ltd launched a total of 35 million sq. ft during the first quarter out of which they sold 15.8 million sq. ft, almost half of what was launched.


                    The above link from 99acres adds fuel to fire. What I said in the earlier message is being vindicated. Dont wait for the BOOM. When that happens you will be one more addition to the MISSING THE BUS variety and though you can join Wiseman and cry on this board, the bus wont come back!

                    Comment

                    • #90

                      #90

                      Re : Hallucinating Bears

                      This guy is the limit!!!

                      Originally posted by Natarajg007 View Post
                      Home Buyers Back In The Market - A Respite For Realtors
                      It seems that realty sector is on the path of recovery, with developers reporting an improvement in apartment sales in the three months ended June compared with previous quarters, although there's no boom yet. Parsvnath Developers Ltd sold 400 apartments (600,000-700,000 sq. ft) across segments compared with sales of just 70-80 apartments during the preceding quarter. Sales figures in the residential market have picked up in Mumbai and the National Capital Region centred on New Delhi in recent months, with demand increasing for affordable housing. As per a 13 July report by Motilal Oswal Securities Ltd, developers such as DLF, Unitech Ltd, Indiabulls Real Estate Ltd, Housing Development and Infrastructure Ltd and Puravankara Projects Ltd launched a total of 35 million sq. ft during the first quarter out of which they sold 15.8 million sq. ft, almost half of what was launched.


                      The above link from 99acres adds fuel to fire. What I said in the earlier message is being vindicated. Dont wait for the BOOM. When that happens you will be one more addition to the MISSING THE BUS variety and though you can join Wiseman and cry on this board, the bus wont come back!

                      Folks,

                      Selling half of what you launched still means you have ADDED to inventory, which is already HUGE!

                      RE companies are adding to inventory even when they try to raise their turnover to a fraction of their highs in 2007. So, here we have the picture you all must try to get ...

                      They are drowning in debt, which was raised to support sales much higher than 2007 sales!

                      Today, when they try to launch and sell a fraction of 2007 volumes, they only land up with even more inventory on their hands.

                      Therefore they are truly stuck! The only way out is to eliminate debt which is in excess and bring it down to levels to support current sales. Which implies eliminating as much as 50% or even 70% of current debt.

                      And just how are builders going to do it? Since almost all their debt is stuck in unsold and many times unfinished inventory. The only way to do this is to clear inventory, not add to it!!!:p

                      And when they finally realise this and come to market to clear, then they have to either crash prices to raise volumes OR simply drown in debt and go bankrupt.

                      This guy is the limit, desperately touting an industry report (aimed at conning people sitting the fence to jump in) as a sign of broader revival!

                      Anyone with any doubts about RE industry conditions, this is a clear signal that industry is well and truly stuck and to come back to earlier health, they have to clear inventories at distress prices. Jump in at your own peril. Be prepared to see your "homes" underwater for quite a while and be prepared to keep paying EMI while seeing value under your purchase price (including interest paid)!

                      cheers

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