Hi Friends,

I had been to the FAIRPRO '09 Fair.My Impression after seeing, is that prices are stagnating for all ongoing projects and builders are trying hard to hold them up.

Prices are 10-20% lower for new projects in the pipeline and for ready to occupy flats.

The discount offered at the stall was very less and were in the range 150-500 Rs/sqft max.

For the benefit of fellow members I am posting the project/price details of some of the properties.



Akshaya Foundations

Adora - OMR - 3750/sqft
Aikya - Adyar - 12500/sqft

Alliance Group - Orchid Springs - 3199/sqft

Arihant Foundations

Heirloom - Thalumbur - 2499/sqft
Escapade - Thoraipakkam - 4150/sqft
Villa Viviana - Maramalai nagar - starting from 1 Crore

Asvini Foundations

Amarisa-phase1 - Ramapuram - 4500/sqft
Amarisa-phase2 - Ramapuram - 4250/sqft
Akshita - Madipakkam - 3800/sqft

Casa Grande

Riveira - Palikkarnai - 3450/sqft - before discount 3600/sqft
Silver Oak - Perungudi - 4300/sqft - before discount 4500/sqft
Madhuban - Madipakkam - 3300 /sqft - before discount 3500/sqft
Mylapore - R.K.salai - 12500/sqft
Plots
Ponmar -785/sqft - before discount 825/sqft
Maraimalainagar - 790/sqft - before discount 825/sqft

CeeDeeyes - Chenni Pattinam

Basic Rate - 1600/sqft All Inclusive - 2075/sqft

Chaitanya shanthiniketan

Sunnyvale - Ayanavaram - 4850/sqft
Serena - Rajkilpakkam - 2550/sqft
Gardenia - OMR - 1900/sqft
Green Park - Chitlapakkam - 3300/sqft

DLF

Gardencity - 3200/sqft - was told slash in prices expected in coming weeks.

Doshi Housing

Etopia I and II - Perungudi - 3895/sqft
Nakshatra - Tambaram - 2995/sqft - Completion May 2010
Tranquil - Velachery - 5500/sqft - Completion February 2010
Trinity park - Santhoshpuram,Vengaivasal - 3195/sqft - Completion April 2009
Serene Couny-Villas - Santhoshpuram,Vengaivasal - 2200,2600/sqft
LlanStephan - Chetpet - 9000/sqft - Completion May 2009
Sri Mahalakshmi - Ayanavaram - 4495/sqft - Ready to Occupy

ETA

Rosedale - OMR - 3100/sqft
Le Chalet - Villas - Sriperambudhur - 26 Lakhs - 37 Lakhs

Hiranandani Upscale - 4200/sqft

Hiranandani Palace Gardens - 3475/sqft

Indus Housing

anantya - Navalur,OMR - 2299/sqft + 400(other charges)
riviera villa - Navalur,OMR - 90 Lakhs onwards
habittera - urapakkam,GST - 2399/sqft + 400(other charges)
amber - Saidapet - 4750/sqft

Jain Housing

Ankush Prakas - Kilpauk - 7500/sqft - Ready to occupy
Amrit Kailash - Strahns Road - 4500/sqft - Ready to occupy
La Gardenia - Nungabakkam - 7500/sqft - Ready to occupy
Ansruta - Valluvarkottam, nungabakkam - 10000/sqft - Ready to occupy
Antariska - Kodambakkam - 4500/sqft - Ready to occupy
Eiffel Garden - Vadapalani - 4250/sqft - Ready to occupy
Saagarika - M.R.C Nagar, sea facing - 10000/12500 - Ready to occupy
Green acres - Pallavaram - 3900/sqft - Ready to occupy
Abhishek - Selaiyur - 3500/sqft - Ready to occupy.

Jamals

Orchid - Palikkarnai - 3500/sqft
Palazzo - keelkattalai - 3700/sqft
Grandeur - Velappanchavadi(near saveetha dental college) - 3200/sqft

KGEYES

3 Projects on L.B.Road, Thiruvanmiyur - 6650/sqft
Delmare - Beach road,Thiruvanmiyur - 7000/sqft
Carolina - Velachery,Taramani - 4500/sqft
Swathi - Sastri Nagar,Adyar - 8500/sqft
Kalakshetra - 8000/sqft

Landmark Constructions

Tiara - Perungudi - 4000/sqft - Completion on August 2009
Aston Ville - Vadapalani - 5500 sqft - Completion on July 2009
Tudors Place - K.K.Nagar - 6500/sqft
The Address - Adyar - 11500/sqft
The Grange - Palavakkam - 7500/sqft
Cenralia - Chrompet - 2950/sqft - prelaunch
Gem Towers - AnnaNagar - To be launched.
Mahalakshmi Heights - Ashok Nagar - To be launched

L&T Estancia
Construction in Progress
1st-3rd Floor - 3950/sqft
4th -12 floor - floor rise charge of 20/sqft for each floor
13th - 17th - 4450/qft

L&T Eden Park - 3600/sqft

Mantri Synergy - OMR
2800/sqft - with 20/floor rise
Special offer - First Floor - all inclusive
1140 sqft - 33,67,000
870 sqft - 28,50,000

Navin Housing

Dayton Heights - Nelson Manickam road - 6500/sqft + 30/sqft floor rise from 2nd floor
Subha Mangala - Ramapuram - 4200/sqft
Brookfield - Nanmangalam - 3500/sqft
Merrylands - Medavakkam - 3500/sqft

Olympia Opaline - 3441/sqft - spl budget flats available

PACE Builders

Anna nagar west - 4195/sqft - before discount 4495/sqft
Selaiyur - 3195/sqft - before discount 3495/sqft
Valasarvakkam - 2795/sqft - before discount 3295/sqft

PS Srijan

The Grand - Velachery - 5250 sqft - before discount 5500/sqft - Floor Rise applicable from 4th floor

Rajparis

Harmony - Medavakkam - 3100/sqft

Rajarathnam Constructions

RC Prince Gardenia - Perambur redhill road,Kolathur - 3600/sqft

Rajkham

Independant houses - Ayyapathangal - 2600/sqft

Real Value

Sai Skanda - Velachery - 4200/sqft
Sai Surya - Palikaranai - 3800/sqft
OMR opp SIPCOT - 13.20 Lakhs onwards

Shriram Properties

Trishakti - SIPCOT - 2750/sqft
Shankari - 1990/sqft

Sidharth foundations

Tulip - k.k.nagar west - 4800/sqft - completion march 2009
Natura - medavakkam - 3100 /sqft - completion july 2009
Visvaleela - Annanagar - 8500 /sqft - to be launched
Dakshin - Urapakkam - price TBD - to be launched
upcoming projects in porur, thoraipakkam, rajkeelpakkam, mogappair.

SIS

Safaa - Urappakam - 3150/sqft

SSPDL

Crescent - Kelambakkam - Vandalur Road - 2500/sqft
Upcoming 2 villa project one in OMR and one in Sriperambathur.

Sumanth & Co

Thiruvanmiyur - 6000/sqft
Besant Nagar - 11500/sqft

TVH

Lumbini square - Pursaiwalkam - 5500/sqft + 30/sqft floor rise from 5th floor
Ouranya Bay(Premium) - OMR,Padur - 3100,3200 + 25/sqft floor rise from 5th floor
Ouranya Bay(Budget) - 2bhk - 20 Lakhs
3bhk - 30 Lakhs
Ekanta - Coimbatore - 3100/sqft
Revata - Mogappair east - 4500/sqft
Kamya - K.K,Nagar - 7000/sqft
Metro Golden Nest - Sriperambathur - 1bhk - 15 Lakhs
2bhk - 22 Lakhs
3bhk - 28 Lakhs

VGN Group

Minerva - Mogappair,Nolumbur - 2975/sqft
3 in 1, 4 in 1 - 3800/sqft
Mahalakshmi Nagar,Thiruverkadu - 3500/sqft
Plots
Mugalivakkam - 52 Lakhs/grnd
Selaiyur - 50 Lakhs/grnd
SPKoil - 34 Lakhs/grnd
Katankulathur - 22-27 Lakhs/grnd

Yuga Homes

Shem Park - chemmenachery - 3300/sqft
Upcoming in Koyambedu, R.A.Puram(8000/sqft)



There are lots of properties and also lots of potential buyers.There is sure a sense of uncertainity among the builders and also the buyers on when to make the next move.It was evident that correction in RE prices have started to happen.

Requesting members to respond with their thoughts on the current trend.
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  • Originally Posted by nabishek
    Septaa,

    Whichever yardstick you use, Its clear that RE is over priced. It is not just now, but has been overpriced for the past 5-6 years. Lets take nungambakkam for example - I hear the current rate for new lanuches is around 22K/sqft. Just two years back it was 12K/sqft and that itself was highly priced comparatively at that time. The problem with such analysis is no one knows whether now is the peak or if there is higher top. The dilemma is always will the bubble burst now? or will it grow even bigger? When one waits for the price to reduce but sees it moving upwards for no reason, isnt it natural tendency for a buyer to feel its better and less risky to ride the bubble than miss the bus?

    Would like to know from you if you have any method to identify a burst is imminent? Thanks.


    IMO DSCR and supply demand r best indicator for any asset valuation. In case of Indian RE black money plays a very important. Also supply of money in this industry is drying up big time NRI have started building RE portfolio in country they r based that is reason the biggest buyers in Dubai Uk USA r Indians
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  • Ramchi's article link,
    Indian home prices fell most among 52 nations, IMF says - The Times of India
    Global Property Guide's analysis of India says that because of high inflation, a comparison of house prices at nominal rates might give a misleading result. At inflation-adjusted rates prices, it says, prices have actually fallen in 21 of these 26 cities.

    When you consider Inflation and Rupee value depreciation, the returns have been muted.
    But in this forum, most folks do not look at these two factors, we generally focus in nominal rupee terms.


    Coming to bubble or not,
    I see a huge number of financially savvy NRIs piling on Indian RE despite having much better umpteen alternative investment options across the world, not just in RE but equities, bonds, etc.
    There should be a reason why these guys are piling on. Think about it for a moment.
    Pool of buyers is ever increasing.
    So it is not just the locals but everyone is getting in.

    Now why would they do that if Indian RE is expensive and unaffordable.
    I think Indian RE is not in a bubble. There is still ways to go, there are many buyers.

    People buy plots for capital gain or flats for rental income.
    Everyone wants to rent out - now that will affect rental market. Many houses but few renters.
    Lower rents are good for economy, it will bring housing costs down for people who cannot afford.
    Rents can still be lower and prices will get higher. More than end user demand, buyer demand is more important.

    Residential rental yeilds need to come down to 1% or so before we panic, I think it is now 2-4%.
    NRIs and Locals are ready to take in low returns.

    Most do not have opportunity cost or interest cost. So even 1% is +ive for them.
    Most of the investors do not borrow money or have other avenues.
    First time and some small % of buyers might take in loans but most do not.

    I tend to see that prices are still very good. But we have some oversupply situtation in certain cities and areas.
    If a 40L Apt or plot 5 years ago was cheap, 80L for same Apt/Plot is cheap today. Market is slow, but might improve.
    What you are seeing is still low prices or same as 5 years ago on average in most areas, considering inflation/interest costs. There is lot of room to go, before we can call the prices are high.
    We just need to take a look at it differently.
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  • Originally Posted by k11
    Ramchi's article link,
    Indian home prices fell most among 52 nations, IMF says - The Times of India

    When you consider Inflation and Rupee value depreciation, the returns have been muted.
    But in this forum, most folks do not look at these two factors, we generally focus in nominal rupee terms.


    Coming to bubble or not,
    I see a huge number of financially savvy NRIs piling on Indian RE despite having much better umpteen alternative investment options across the world, not just in RE but equities, bonds, etc.
    There should be a reason why these guys are piling on. Think about it for a moment.
    Pool of buyers is ever increasing.
    So it is not just the locals but everyone is getting in.

    Now why would they do that if Indian RE is expensive and unaffordable.
    I think Indian RE is not in a bubble. There is still ways to go, there are many buyers.

    People buy plots for capital gain or flats for rental income.
    Everyone wants to rent out - now that will affect rental market. Many houses but few renters.
    Lower rents are good for economy, it will bring housing costs down for people who cannot afford.
    Rents can still be lower and prices will get higher. More than end user demand, buyer demand is more important.

    Residential rental yeilds need to come down to 1% or so before we panic, I think it is now 2-4%.
    NRIs and Locals are ready to take in low returns.

    Most do not have opportunity cost or interest cost. So even 1% is +ive for them.
    Most of the investors do not borrow money or have other avenues.
    First time and some small % of buyers might take in loans but most do not.

    I tend to see that prices are still very good. But we have some oversupply situtation in certain cities and areas.
    If a 40L Apt or plot 5 years ago was cheap, 80L for same Apt/Plot is cheap today. Market is slow, but might improve.
    What you are seeing is still low prices or same as 5 years ago on average in most areas, considering inflation/interest costs. There is lot of room to go, before we can call the prices are high.
    We just need to take a look at it differently.

    Chennai market u can safely say it is end user driven market..... Hence central chennai price will see not much correction however any other market take south chennai is over supply and over priced so big correction is possible....IMO lot of empty unit
    In regards to NRI I strongly believe change is coming second generation r selling all investment made by there parents they see not much value owning asset in India.
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  • Originally Posted by Septaa
    Chennai market u can safely say it is end user driven market..... Hence central chennai price will see not much correction however any other market take south chennai is over supply and over priced so big correction is possible....IMO lot of empty unit
    In regards to NRI I strongly believe change is coming second generation r selling all investment made by there parents they see not much value owning asset in India.


    I do see a lot of NRIs from western and other developed countries, many on this forum itself taking trips to India, spending so much time to scout for RE. This forum is proof.
    Now they have other investment options as well, but there is a reason why they are all piling on to Indian RE even if the returns in the last 4-5 years have not been good.
    They say RE is expensive in forums but continue to buy at even higher prices.

    Chennai is end user market compared to NCR, MMR, BLR, etc, Agree.
    But most sales are happening to non-end users.

    Plots at sky high prices continue to remain barren. Flats in high rises are unoccupied, looking for renters.

    End use sales are small fraction.
    Most are bought for investment purpose.

    I think the prices can go much higher as the investment demand increases irrepective of End use.
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  • There should be a reason why these guys are piling on. Think about it for a moment.
    Pool of buyers is ever increasing.
    So it is not just the locals but everyone is getting in.
    Fallacy lies in the assumption that they must be right. Nobody knows whether they will be right is the correct position at this moment. Financially Savvy are the ones who made the Lehman Bros go kaput. So, equating financially savvy NRI buying to allude that there must be something is a guess work and has no meaning.
    Now why would they do that if Indian RE is expensive and unaffordable.


    Nasdaq broke record after record in trading volume during 2000. Pool of buyers ever increasing is one reason and why would people pile on if Nasdaq was expensive did not apply then as we all witnessed much later. NRIs are not immune from Herd mentality even if I were to take your anecdotal statement that NRIs are piling on India like there is no tomorrow. Smart NRIs who look at currency-adjusted returns do not make mistakes at this valuation. Dumb NRIs who invested in 2010 and 2011 taking HELOC had realized that currency means something and interest rate is not everything.
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  • Originally Posted by k11

    I think the prices can go much higher as the investment demand increases irrepective of End use.


    My thought: this is fundamentaly wrong. However i have seen this hapening in last 5 years.Ghost condos are perfect examples. How long is my question and i also understand answer to my question is not easy.

    i consider price increase because of invesment is like building built on ground without foundation.

    For me if no end use, then there is no real demand. investment demand is an illusion. the only thing which could help investment is economical growth, more jobs which will increase end use.

    sometimes i feel people who exit their investment NOW are smart, but i dont know if i am correct.
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  • Originally Posted by iceemani
    My thought: this is fundamentaly wrong. However i have seen this hapening in last 5 years.Ghost condos are perfect examples. How long is my question and i also understand answer to my question is not easy.

    i consider price increase because of invesment is like building built on ground without foundation.

    For me if no end use, then there is no real demand. investment demand is an illusion. the only thing which could help investment is economical growth, more jobs which will increase end use.

    sometimes i feel people who exit their investment NOW are smart, but i dont know if i am correct.


    Buyers sentiment is very important and plays a crucial factor deciding how big the bubble can grow. In late 2009/10 when the impact of GFC on India was uncertain, many properties saw a correction of nearly 30%. Despite that it couldn't attract buyers because no one was willing to buy in a falling market. Builders realized and saw when they increased prices it convinced the people on the fence to jump and take the plunge.Prices were artificially hiked and that coincided with the infusion of liquidity and economy revival leading to another RE boom. As long as there is possibility of greater fool to buy and there are enough such buyer target coupled with scarce good properties the price of property will continue to be in upward bias rising sharply but falling flatly.
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  • Originally Posted by iceemani
    My thought: this is fundamentaly wrong. However i have seen this hapening in last 5 years.Ghost condos are perfect examples. How long is my question and i also understand answer to my question is not easy.

    i consider price increase because of invesment is like building built on ground without foundation.

    For me if no end use, then there is no real demand. investment demand is an illusion. the only thing which could help investment is economical growth, more jobs which will increase end use.

    sometimes i feel people who exit their investment NOW are smart, but i dont know if i am correct.


    Your post does make sense to me.
    Look at this from my perspective.

    Indians (including NRIs) are brainwashed into 'Indian RE is the best investment'.

    People are paying premium prices for plots in barren layouts and apartment projects resembling ghost condos.
    This is happening TODAY.

    People continue to pile on, they did this even when all of this was happening 5 years ago.
    It is not like situation drastically improved now. As I was saying low inflation/currency adjusted returns have not deterred them.

    So I am not sure why people will suddenly stop buying.
    If this is a bubble, it was bubble 5-6 years ago too.

    Price increase will happen when there is enough demand (buyers).
    Lack of end users is not stopping buyers.
    Poor inflation/currency adjusted returns in recent years is not stopping buyers.
    Lack of Infra is not stopping buyers.
    Opportunity/Interest cost is not stopping buyers.
    Better alternative investment options is not stopping buyers.

    If there are no buyers, then prices has to come down significantly.
    I am not sure it is going to happen anytime soon.

    I am not a perma bull nor a perma bear.
    I am not convinced Chennai RE is best for me at the moment, as my expectation of returns are high but it might work out for others.
    I feel prices will continue to increase, albeit slowly.
    If you have lesser avenues to invest, I think Chennai RE is not bad.
    You can expect returns greater than zero, I have a feeling it might not fall into -ive territory.

    Some of the threads started by me related to prices.
    http://www.indianrealestateforum.com/real-estate-chennai/t-stocks-vs-chennai-re-next-5-years-77611.html
    https://www.indianrealestateforum.com/forum/city-forums/chennai-real-estate/30965-investment-sholinganallur-vs-nallambakkam-vs-mahindra-world-city?t=32894
    https://www.indianrealestateforum.com/forum/city-forums/chennai-real-estate/50763-is-chennai-suburbs-getting-expensive-vs-rest-of-the-country?t=52398
    http://www.indianrealestateforum.com/real-estate-chennai/t-impact-opportunity-interest-cost-re-80130.html
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  • Buyers interest will remain and buy now and somebody will pay more - is more on the lines of Greater Fool theory as abishek put it.

    All of the data so far shown are purely anecdotal. NRIs are piling on, nothing is stopping the buyers - it is hard to see how far the reality could be disconnected from these illusions.

    When the train starts moving and if one pushes, one believes that push is what is moving the train. One can come up with various anecdotes which suits the current behavior of the markets and jump in - all of the anecdotes are classic indicators of momentum investing. In momentum investing, you buy because you think it goes higher. Nothing else matters. Short punts in RE can work at times but it rarely works in a long haul.
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  • If any of you know current market price pls help with price of land with old house kind of property within 1 km of Camp Road junction. Thanks,
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  • Originally Posted by maverick007
    Buyers interest will remain and buy now and somebody will pay more - is more on the lines of Greater Fool theory as abishek put it.


    Not right. End users do not think about disposing it while buying it!. Greater fool theory is for some one like who buys based on serial actors advertisements.

    All of the data so far shown are purely anecdotal. NRIs are piling on, nothing is stopping the buyers - it is hard to see how far the reality could be disconnected from these illusions. .


    Not right. Locals are much richer than NRIs. Only difference is that the locals never show of their wealth and very silent on their bank balance!. Without the local population support this market could not survived until now.

    When the train starts moving and if one pushes, one believes that push is what is moving the train. One can come up with various anecdotes which suits the current behavior of the markets and jump in - all of the anecdotes are classic indicators of momentum investing. In momentum investing, you buy because you think it goes higher. Nothing else matters. Short punts in RE can work at times but it rarely works in a long haul.


    Not right. In a long haul RE in established location always beats inflation. But the interpretation of long haul with timeline varies among masses!
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  • Not right. End users do not think about disposing it while buying it!. Greater fool theory is for some one like who buys based on serial actors advertisements.


    End users affordability has limits and just because there are needs for end-use and buyers will not enter at any prices. However, current bulls seem to ignore that if seller do not sell at these prices, buyer will have to buy. At best, it is a hope. Hope may have worked for some time or little longer. But, hope is not fundamentals. There is a limit to this thinking in terms of how far it can stretch. That is greater fool theory in action and no need to waste money on serial actors to drive home these basics.


    Not right. Locals are much richer than NRIs. Only difference is that the locals never show of their wealth and very silent on their bank balance!. Without the local population support this market could not survived until now.


    You say 'Not right' but seemed to echo a part of what I was driving at. Looks like cut paste error of the same string 'Not right' in all the quotes !!

    Not right. In a long haul RE in established location always beats inflation. But the interpretation of long haul with timeline varies among masses!


    Above has no relevance to the quote of mine you responded to. Not right :). First, learn about momentum investing and what drives the madness and then will discuss.
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  • Originally Posted by maverick007
    End users affordability has limits and just because there are needs for end-use and buyers will not enter at any prices. However, current bulls seem to ignore that if seller do not sell at these prices, buyer will have to buy. At best, it is a hope. Hope may have worked for some time or little longer. But, hope is not fundamentals. There is a limit to this thinking in terms of how far it can stretch. That is greater fool theory in action and no need to waste money on serial actors to drive home these basics.


    I think you are confused with varies theories of investment in RE. You got to learn basics of momentum investing!. Investment in RE and physicals are not same as investing in stocks.

    There is no momentum in RE currently otherwise we would not have stagflation and inventory pileup. There are mainly two type of buyers now. One is real end user who does not care of price fluctuation in short term and the other is buyers who afraid of getting priced out in future. These two are end users who never mind plunging in RE at any time.

    Your assumption of end user affordability is ridiculous. There is always affordability as there is always something available if one does not bother about the distance from the city and market eventually forces both the buyers and sellers to arrive at equilibrium.
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  • Originally Posted by maverick007
    End users affordability has limits and just because there are needs for end-use and buyers will not enter at any prices. However, current bulls seem to ignore that if seller do not sell at these prices, buyer will have to buy. At best, it is a hope. Hope may have worked for some time or little longer. But, hope is not fundamentals. There is a limit to this thinking in terms of how far it can stretch. That is greater fool theory in action and no need to waste money on serial actors to drive home these basics.


    Why is it not affordable now all of a sudden?
    If it was affordable 4-5 years ago, it is affordable now too.

    Flats for end users on popular locations like OMR, places like Shols was 4K psft. Now it is 5.5K psft. If you add in Inflation and other factors, it is not a big move. Median prices all over the Metro region did not move a lot.

    Petrol prices, Food, Air/Rail/Bus fare, labor, construction materials, furniture, etc - everything went up in leaps and bounds. RE did not go up a lot in relative comparison.

    Prices are affordable still. There are takers for the right property in good in-demand locations.
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  • Petrol prices, Food, Air/Rail/Bus fare, labor, construction materials, furniture, etc - everything went up in leaps and bounds. RE did not go up a lot in relative comparison.


    For a change, anecdotes have become fuzzy. Every thing went up - so what? It is the quantum that counts. Can you explain what do you mean by leaps and bounds? Be specific and take a 10 year time frame and show your leaps and bounds. Your logic is similar to how auto drivers demand 10Rs more for the usual Rs 25 ride when the petrol cost goes up by Rs 5 a litre. If you ask them, they use the same rant as yours - everything is going up saar. Equally ridiculous. Devil is in the detail.

    Construction cost went up by 4 times from 450 psft to 1800 psft between 1996 and 2014 with name brand materials (not fancy). First hand information and no anecdotes or hear says. All are Chennai prices and no cheap chinese imports. How do you spell the word l-e-a-p?
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