Hi Friends,

I had been to the FAIRPRO '09 Fair.My Impression after seeing, is that prices are stagnating for all ongoing projects and builders are trying hard to hold them up.

Prices are 10-20% lower for new projects in the pipeline and for ready to occupy flats.

The discount offered at the stall was very less and were in the range 150-500 Rs/sqft max.

For the benefit of fellow members I am posting the project/price details of some of the properties.



Akshaya Foundations

Adora - OMR - 3750/sqft
Aikya - Adyar - 12500/sqft

Alliance Group - Orchid Springs - 3199/sqft

Arihant Foundations

Heirloom - Thalumbur - 2499/sqft
Escapade - Thoraipakkam - 4150/sqft
Villa Viviana - Maramalai nagar - starting from 1 Crore

Asvini Foundations

Amarisa-phase1 - Ramapuram - 4500/sqft
Amarisa-phase2 - Ramapuram - 4250/sqft
Akshita - Madipakkam - 3800/sqft

Casa Grande

Riveira - Palikkarnai - 3450/sqft - before discount 3600/sqft
Silver Oak - Perungudi - 4300/sqft - before discount 4500/sqft
Madhuban - Madipakkam - 3300 /sqft - before discount 3500/sqft
Mylapore - R.K.salai - 12500/sqft
Plots
Ponmar -785/sqft - before discount 825/sqft
Maraimalainagar - 790/sqft - before discount 825/sqft

CeeDeeyes - Chenni Pattinam

Basic Rate - 1600/sqft All Inclusive - 2075/sqft

Chaitanya shanthiniketan

Sunnyvale - Ayanavaram - 4850/sqft
Serena - Rajkilpakkam - 2550/sqft
Gardenia - OMR - 1900/sqft
Green Park - Chitlapakkam - 3300/sqft

DLF

Gardencity - 3200/sqft - was told slash in prices expected in coming weeks.

Doshi Housing

Etopia I and II - Perungudi - 3895/sqft
Nakshatra - Tambaram - 2995/sqft - Completion May 2010
Tranquil - Velachery - 5500/sqft - Completion February 2010
Trinity park - Santhoshpuram,Vengaivasal - 3195/sqft - Completion April 2009
Serene Couny-Villas - Santhoshpuram,Vengaivasal - 2200,2600/sqft
LlanStephan - Chetpet - 9000/sqft - Completion May 2009
Sri Mahalakshmi - Ayanavaram - 4495/sqft - Ready to Occupy

ETA

Rosedale - OMR - 3100/sqft
Le Chalet - Villas - Sriperambudhur - 26 Lakhs - 37 Lakhs

Hiranandani Upscale - 4200/sqft

Hiranandani Palace Gardens - 3475/sqft

Indus Housing

anantya - Navalur,OMR - 2299/sqft + 400(other charges)
riviera villa - Navalur,OMR - 90 Lakhs onwards
habittera - urapakkam,GST - 2399/sqft + 400(other charges)
amber - Saidapet - 4750/sqft

Jain Housing

Ankush Prakas - Kilpauk - 7500/sqft - Ready to occupy
Amrit Kailash - Strahns Road - 4500/sqft - Ready to occupy
La Gardenia - Nungabakkam - 7500/sqft - Ready to occupy
Ansruta - Valluvarkottam, nungabakkam - 10000/sqft - Ready to occupy
Antariska - Kodambakkam - 4500/sqft - Ready to occupy
Eiffel Garden - Vadapalani - 4250/sqft - Ready to occupy
Saagarika - M.R.C Nagar, sea facing - 10000/12500 - Ready to occupy
Green acres - Pallavaram - 3900/sqft - Ready to occupy
Abhishek - Selaiyur - 3500/sqft - Ready to occupy.

Jamals

Orchid - Palikkarnai - 3500/sqft
Palazzo - keelkattalai - 3700/sqft
Grandeur - Velappanchavadi(near saveetha dental college) - 3200/sqft

KGEYES

3 Projects on L.B.Road, Thiruvanmiyur - 6650/sqft
Delmare - Beach road,Thiruvanmiyur - 7000/sqft
Carolina - Velachery,Taramani - 4500/sqft
Swathi - Sastri Nagar,Adyar - 8500/sqft
Kalakshetra - 8000/sqft

Landmark Constructions

Tiara - Perungudi - 4000/sqft - Completion on August 2009
Aston Ville - Vadapalani - 5500 sqft - Completion on July 2009
Tudors Place - K.K.Nagar - 6500/sqft
The Address - Adyar - 11500/sqft
The Grange - Palavakkam - 7500/sqft
Cenralia - Chrompet - 2950/sqft - prelaunch
Gem Towers - AnnaNagar - To be launched.
Mahalakshmi Heights - Ashok Nagar - To be launched

L&T Estancia
Construction in Progress
1st-3rd Floor - 3950/sqft
4th -12 floor - floor rise charge of 20/sqft for each floor
13th - 17th - 4450/qft

L&T Eden Park - 3600/sqft

Mantri Synergy - OMR
2800/sqft - with 20/floor rise
Special offer - First Floor - all inclusive
1140 sqft - 33,67,000
870 sqft - 28,50,000

Navin Housing

Dayton Heights - Nelson Manickam road - 6500/sqft + 30/sqft floor rise from 2nd floor
Subha Mangala - Ramapuram - 4200/sqft
Brookfield - Nanmangalam - 3500/sqft
Merrylands - Medavakkam - 3500/sqft

Olympia Opaline - 3441/sqft - spl budget flats available

PACE Builders

Anna nagar west - 4195/sqft - before discount 4495/sqft
Selaiyur - 3195/sqft - before discount 3495/sqft
Valasarvakkam - 2795/sqft - before discount 3295/sqft

PS Srijan

The Grand - Velachery - 5250 sqft - before discount 5500/sqft - Floor Rise applicable from 4th floor

Rajparis

Harmony - Medavakkam - 3100/sqft

Rajarathnam Constructions

RC Prince Gardenia - Perambur redhill road,Kolathur - 3600/sqft

Rajkham

Independant houses - Ayyapathangal - 2600/sqft

Real Value

Sai Skanda - Velachery - 4200/sqft
Sai Surya - Palikaranai - 3800/sqft
OMR opp SIPCOT - 13.20 Lakhs onwards

Shriram Properties

Trishakti - SIPCOT - 2750/sqft
Shankari - 1990/sqft

Sidharth foundations

Tulip - k.k.nagar west - 4800/sqft - completion march 2009
Natura - medavakkam - 3100 /sqft - completion july 2009
Visvaleela - Annanagar - 8500 /sqft - to be launched
Dakshin - Urapakkam - price TBD - to be launched
upcoming projects in porur, thoraipakkam, rajkeelpakkam, mogappair.

SIS

Safaa - Urappakam - 3150/sqft

SSPDL

Crescent - Kelambakkam - Vandalur Road - 2500/sqft
Upcoming 2 villa project one in OMR and one in Sriperambathur.

Sumanth & Co

Thiruvanmiyur - 6000/sqft
Besant Nagar - 11500/sqft

TVH

Lumbini square - Pursaiwalkam - 5500/sqft + 30/sqft floor rise from 5th floor
Ouranya Bay(Premium) - OMR,Padur - 3100,3200 + 25/sqft floor rise from 5th floor
Ouranya Bay(Budget) - 2bhk - 20 Lakhs
3bhk - 30 Lakhs
Ekanta - Coimbatore - 3100/sqft
Revata - Mogappair east - 4500/sqft
Kamya - K.K,Nagar - 7000/sqft
Metro Golden Nest - Sriperambathur - 1bhk - 15 Lakhs
2bhk - 22 Lakhs
3bhk - 28 Lakhs

VGN Group

Minerva - Mogappair,Nolumbur - 2975/sqft
3 in 1, 4 in 1 - 3800/sqft
Mahalakshmi Nagar,Thiruverkadu - 3500/sqft
Plots
Mugalivakkam - 52 Lakhs/grnd
Selaiyur - 50 Lakhs/grnd
SPKoil - 34 Lakhs/grnd
Katankulathur - 22-27 Lakhs/grnd

Yuga Homes

Shem Park - chemmenachery - 3300/sqft
Upcoming in Koyambedu, R.A.Puram(8000/sqft)



There are lots of properties and also lots of potential buyers.There is sure a sense of uncertainity among the builders and also the buyers on when to make the next move.It was evident that correction in RE prices have started to happen.

Requesting members to respond with their thoughts on the current trend.
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2346 Replies
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  • No point in looking 10yrs or 20yrs ago and saying it is unaffordable now.
    So many factors changed, Incomes went up a lot, it is not a easy comparison.

    Look at last 5 years or 2-3 years and tell us, if it was afforable before how come it suddenly became unaffordable now.

    You made the below statement.
    Originally Posted by maverick007
    End users affordability has limits and just because there are needs for end-use and buyers will not enter at any prices. However, current bulls seem to ignore that if seller do not sell at these prices, buyer will have to buy. At best, it is a hope. Hope may have worked for some time or little longer. But, hope is not fundamentals. There is a limit to this thinking in terms of how far it can stretch. That is greater fool theory in action and no need to waste money on serial actors to drive home these basics.


    My response is, RE in the last five years or so, lagged inflation.

    There will always be buyers at current prices.
    Affordability and speculative Deal hunting is a different story.

    Flats are affordable, compared to last few years.
    Rents are very attractive, Flat prices have lagged inflation.
    Housing affordability is not in a bad shape today.

    If End user wants there is lot of choices. Making rubbish statement like 'Greater Fool Theory in action' will not hold true for properties in demand.
    Greater fool will be the guy on sidelines who just keeps on harping about end user affordability when actual inflation/currency adjusted RE prices are much lower in the recent years.

    Beating around the bush, making rubbish statements, posting ridicluous number on builder FSI payments, Filling up pages and pages fighting other members, etc have become rampant nowadays.
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  • Originally Posted by k11
    No point in looking 10yrs or 20yrs ago and saying it is unaffordable now.
    So many factors changed, Incomes went up a lot, it is not a easy comison.

    Look at last 5 years or 2-3 years and tell us, if it was afforable before how come it suddenly became unaffordable now.

    You made the below statement.


    My response is, RE in the last five years or so, lagged inflation.

    There will always be buyers at current prices.
    Affordability and speculative Deal hunting is a different story.

    Flats are affordable, compared to last few years.
    Rents are very attractive, Flat prices have lagged inflation.
    Housing affordability is not in a bad shape today.

    If End user wants there is lot of choices. Making rubbish statement like 'Greater Fool Theory in action' will not hold true for properties in demand.
    Greater fool will be the guy on sidelines who just keeps on harping about end user affordability when actual inflation/currency adjusted RE prices are much lower in the recent years.

    Beating around the bush, making rubbish statements, posting ridicluous number on builder FSI payments, Filling up pages and pages fighting other members, etc have become rampant nowadays.


    I made the 'greater fool' comment and let me clarify. Let's see why there is demand? As you yourself put there is high demand for good properties only because good properties are scarce..scarcity of resources cannot be a reason to overlook fundamentals..tomorrow if a situation arises where there is sudden oversupply or the property becomes unaffordable to the floating buyer segment, the property becomes unsellable and whatever paper profit you think you have made is not converted and is unrealized, if it's for end use requirement then there's no debate of profit/loss but in case one is considering RE as investment then they are heavily depending on someone else to see more value in the property than that person did, which itself is a gamble and too many external factors involved..the hedge against inflation also wont hold because for profit one has to beat inflation..any stagnation is value erosion..you may call it high risk high profit..but for people like me who are cautious would say bravado in front of a storm is foolishness.
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  • Originally Posted by maverick007
    Your logic is similar to how auto drivers demand 10Rs more for the usual Rs 25 ride when the petrol cost goes up by Rs 5 a litre. If you ask them, they use the same rant as yours - everything is going up saar. Equally ridiculous. Devil is in the detail.

    Construction cost went up by 4 times from 450 psft to 1800 psft between 1996 and 2014 with name brand materials (not fancy). First hand information and no anecdotes or hear says. All are Chennai prices and no cheap chinese imports. How do you spell the word l-e-a-p?


    First of all there is no relevant to extortion by auto drivers and RE end user affordability scenario.

    Second the construction cost was north of 150 to 200 Rs in 1995 and today same standard it would cost 2200 Rs. So there is ~10 times increase. On the other hand the average annual income of 1 lac by middle class in 1995 went up 20 lacks in 2014. If there was a affordability for middle class to buy Rs. 6 lac valued apt in 1995 and why not affordable for them to buy 1.2Cr valued apt today? In 1995 there was no global reach by common people as in today and consumer confidence was very weak. So in 2014 he can leverage even more and buy 1.5Cr valued apt.

    Your statement look like as if one earns by driving the cab and complain about not affordable to buy in boat club!.
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  • Originally Posted by nabishek
    Let's see why there is demand? As you yourself put there is high demand for good properties only because good properties are scarce..scarcity of resources cannot be a reason to overlook fundamentals..tomorrow if a situation arises where there is sudden oversupply or the property becomes unaffordable to the floating buyer segment, the property becomes unsellable and whatever paper profit you think you have made is not converted and is unrealized, if it's for end use requirement then there's no debate of profit/loss but in case one is considering RE as investment then they are heavily depending on someone else to see more value in the property than that person did, which itself is a gamble and too many external factors involved..the hedge against inflation also wont hold because for profit one has to beat inflation..any stagnation is value erosion..you may call it high risk high profit..but for people like me who are cautious would say bravado in front of a storm is foolishness.


    Well, for me ever increasing Demand and lower Supply is the fundamental reason for stable prices for good properties. That is the most important fundmental I think. When I say good - I mean in-demand, preffered locations by general conensus.
    People are buying without approvals and risking big money - they are willing to do for good property. We just posted in Green Peace thread.
    Prices today I think are in line with what we have observed before.

    Some faraway places with barren lands and ghost condos might have difficulty moving. Even for these there is demand from speculators and even first time buyers. We are not seeing prices going down even for the such properties faroff from civilization. There are takers for this also.
    Hard to see prices coming down.

    I am also not sure RE has beat inflation in the past 5 or so years.
    If I post some examples, members here will post some one off appreciation and show it as if they hit the lottery. I am sure if you would also come up with same result.
    Most owners of property do not care about inflation/interest/opportunity costs, they will hold long time and will not move as easily into other asset classes, NRIs included.
    How many people in this forum sell property an invest in other investments - it would be minority.
    I do not think RE is a good hedge against inflation.
    It is just and investment class like any other. No fixed return, supply/demand/economy/pricing/etc make a huge factor in returns.

    My views are in the middle, neither a bull or bear. #1943
    I understand most people are generally bearish by default when it comes to RE.
    I do not also proclaim RE would be the best investment option going forward.
    In my view, it might not yeild high adjusted returns for the next few years.
    If you go through some of the threads I posted, I have always reflected this thought.
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  • First of all there is no relevant to extortion by auto drivers and RE end user affordability scenario.


    Not right. My context in the analogy was to the reason auto drivers give and not the extortion part. That reason is humbug and no relevance to the disproportionate rise in tariff they justify. Same here. We blame it on construction cost to rise by leaps and bounds but the rise is modest and not leaps and bounds.

    Second the construction cost was north of 150 to 200 Rs in 1995 and today same standard it would cost 2200 Rs. So there is ~10 times increase.


    Above is what realtors what want us to believe but there is no truth in it.

    On the other hand the average annual income of 1 lac by middle class in 1995 went up 20 lacks in 2014.
    Not right. All baloney. Any data any sources?


    If there was a affordability for middle class to buy Rs. 6 lac valued apt in 1995 and why not affordable for them to buy 1.2Cr valued apt today? In 1995 there was no global reach by common people as in today and consumer confidence was very weak. So in 2014 he can leverage even more and buy 1.5Cr valued apt.


    All anecdotal. You can add more. World is Flat. And what not. What is the relevance? With baloney data, anything may appear to make sense. Fallacy is in the premise and in the data of annual income rising from 1 lac to 20 lac in 19 years.

    When you make a claim that construction prices was 150-200 in 1995 and it went to 2200, one can see the quantum of misjudgement or quality of how you discern data.
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  • Well, for me ever increasing Demand and lower Supply is the fundamental reason for stable prices for good properties. That is the most important fundmental I think.


    You have to get the fundamentals on fundamentals right first. Supply-Demand is one aspect of how prices stabilize. It is technical or in other words, decided by voting machine for the moment. Fundamentals are way different. You have to apply principles that you would apply for other assets for valuation. It is a weighing machine. While it differs from stocks to RE, demand-supply is an ephemeral stuff and not a sustainable measure of what the asset is worth. Using demand-supply to support valuation is much closer to greater fool theory and it is completely disconnected to fundamentals. It may be 'fundamental' to you but that is not the 'fundamental' for an asset.

    Using supply-demand as a way to buy/sell RE is akin to stock trading based on FII money flows or rising volume or declining volume - all of which are non-sustainable data. Where are the fundamentals?

    I wish you understood abhishek's post and address the crux of what he is raising. I see you are not even coming near to addressing it.
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  • Originally Posted by maverick007
    You have to get the fundamentals on fundamentals right first. Supply-Demand is one aspect of how prices stabilize. It is technical or in other words, decided by voting machine for the moment. Fundamentals are way different. You have to apply principles that you would apply for other assets for valuation. It is a weighing machine. While it differs from stocks to RE, demand-supply is an ephemeral stuff and not a sustainable measure of what the asset is worth. Using demand-supply to support valuation is much closer to greater fool theory and it is completely disconnected to fundamentals. It may be 'fundamental' to you but that is not the 'fundamental' for an asset.

    What else is more fundamental than supply and demand.

    If more people want to live in a place, and the place cannot accommodate more people, prices will go up. As long as demand is there, valuation is preserved or even increases.
    Why will price go down there is demand.
    No other factor is more important than supply and demand.

    If there is no demand and still buying RE, you are speculating for demand.
    Any attempt to justify future demand is pure speculation.

    Even with developments, if the supply outpaces demand (like in some suburbs) you are in trouble. Supply will keep lid on prices.

    If there is no demand or if demand outpaces supply your holding is worth less, irrespective of any fundamentals. Your paper value does not apply.

    No comparison with stocks which has a book value, backed by value of assets net of liabilities. RE does not have book value, think about it. RE is more like commodity.

    RE is ruled by supply and demand. No other way to look at it.
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  • How do you measure supply-demand?

    Gut and hunch. Any other means beyond guessing ?

    Fundamentals: Often quantifiable through some measures and historical data. Provides some sense on where your margin of safety is. Allows you to sit tight even if temporary supply-demand mismatch causes it to be volatile - because you know over time 'fundamentals' will be recognized and realize the value.

    Demand-Supply: You chase higher highs. Because demand is your fundamental. When in demand, you never get cheaper prices. Demand does not inform you before it wanes. When it falls, prices correct or stagnate. You would not buy because there is no demand. People who follow fundamentals can see beyond the demand-supply aberration and take advantage of it. What Septaa highlighted in one of the post is one way of seeing through the madness and crappy valuation. Whether you agree to the fundamental analysis or not, you can see how investment principles were turned upside in demand-supply based buying.
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  • Originally Posted by maverick007
    How do you measure supply-demand?

    Gut and hunch. Any other means beyond guessing ?


    Stocks does not move at a certain price point means there is less demand.
    If it sells out, there is demand.

    What type of question is this.
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  • If supply-demand is fundamental to you, that should be your entry/exit criteria for buying or selling decision, right?

    If it is not measurable or quantifiable, how will you make decisions? Care to share how someone using this demand-supply can make decisions? If you are not in the profession of RE, how do you know if the stock is not moving at a certain price point? More importantly, you know this after the fact. Is that how the investment decisions are made?
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  • Originally Posted by maverick007
    If supply-demand is fundamental to you, that should be your entry/exit criteria for buying or selling decision, right?

    If it is not measurable or quantifiable, how will you make decisions? Care to share how someone using this demand-supply can make decisions? If you are not in the profession of RE, how do you know if the stock is not moving at a certain price point? More importantly, you know this after the fact. Is that how the investment decisions are made?


    It is key to my decisions.

    If there is a project X is launched and there is no sales (no demand).
    Why would I go to book it and give up my money.
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  • It is key to my decisions.

    If there is a project X is launched and there is no sales (no demand).
    Why would I go to book it and give up my money.


    Glad you shared. Your views are far disconnected from anything that can be approached as 'investment'.

    Let me take you to the investment fundamentals. Please say Agree/Disagree on below and no other explanations needed:

    1. Investment is not about what is the demand at the time you buy.

    2. Voting machine influenced by various other factors can slacken the interest. Lower demand at the entry rarely points to the investment potential of what it can be in future.

    3. What really matters is what you realize at the time of selling. Price at which you bought helps to realize more.
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  • @Maverick, I agree with point 2. I have in general seen that plots or apartments selling at premium rates usually appreciate more than the ones selling at lower rates.
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  • Originally Posted by maverick007


    1. Investment is not about what is the demand at the time you buy.

    2. Voting machine influenced by various other factors can slacken the interest. Lower demand at the entry rarely points to the investment potential of what it can be in future.

    3. What really matters is what you realize at the time of selling. Price at which you bought helps to realize more.


    #1- Not right. Momentum investors look for any interest from other buyers for the same asset class before plunging it.

    #2- Most of them know the theory and no point in beating around same old thoughts. History is only for guidance and should ready to adopt to changing environment for successful investing. Lower demand at the entry tends to be poor most of the time. they have less Probability of becoming successful investment. Again learn basics first then you can debate here

    #3- It look like a kid reiterating that milk is always white. But he does not know there are different milks with various colors. There are people who buy RE just for pleasure never worry about selling it. Some others buys RE to avoid renting and have pride of owning it. The list goes on.
    You are confused with RE investment by mixing it with equity investment.
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  • Originally Posted by manojb23
    I have in general seen that plots or apartments selling at premium rates usually appreciate more than the ones selling at lower rates.


    I did not preclude the above. My contention was the opposite: If there is no demand and price reflects that, it means nothing to what it can do in future as an investment.
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