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- Dear RE King,I like the way you have presented and for sure it is the mentality of our people being pessimistic rather than optimistic or rather force the sellers to go for the final bottom.but unfortunately it will not happen as no one will sell below his cost plus financing plus a marginal profit.people who think that they can purchase rock bottom due to the various misfortune factors like demonitization and the new rules are in for shock when they approach the market.Having said that there may be few handful who are in dire need to sell for various extigencies and emergencies but even they wont just sell it for a song.It is better for those in need to pledge the property and secure a bank loan to meet the financial need then to lower the price and sell it for a song.
- Originally Posted by RE KingAmazing how this board has been hijacked by bears! So RE is only to park black money...so say my friends here! You dont buy RE to live, only for it to appreciate...haha what a good joke. In a city like Chennai which is filled to its brim where people earn money and are asking for more money, where silly engineers are paid by the dozen, do we think they dont need a roof to live in. We are today importing huge crowd from Rest of India (cricketing parlance!?) to South India and Chennai, Bangalore and Hyderabad are getting choked. Add to this Chennai is choked with the entire TN crowd. So why will RE fall? Only that our friends typical Madrasis, want the seller to sell desperately so that they can buy for a song. The hearing is that there is a big bang rise poised to happen in the next few months, probably it has started already. Let us take Aug 2018 and you wont get the same rate you get now, it will be quite high by then.Anyway listen to the bears if you dont have the dough, after all you can atleast dream that RE will crash to zero.
At last RE King brought some anecdotal theory - although dated and thrashed in every form and forum - urbanization. People are moving to Chennai in hordes from villages. May even use anecdotal crowd indicator seen in Central Station, Koyambedu as the driver for RE demand. His theory of price rise is predicated on people will pile on no matter what the prices are - such snake oil theories had few takers.
Where he misses the plot is:
Otherwise, why is that residential apartments (less scope for black) in city and brim since 2010 did not even earn its cost of capital?
A taxi driver few years ago explained that in his village somewhere in Tuticorin was filled only with old ladies and all the younger generation was making a living in Chennai. They only return to celebrate functions.What does this mean?
Simple, scope for new building in the congested concrete jungle. That means competition for land and buildings.
Wow. What a scuttle-butt method to validate RE demand. Boss, let's relegate the old ladies left alone anecdotes to the 'Thinnai talks'.
Bring some data - relevant and meaningful data - for 15-20% CAGR you have been predicting for long. You have been evading the question where do those returns come from and how can it sustain. You are bringing so much of other drivel leaving this pertinent point on where the imaginary 15-20% CAGR is rooted at.
In God we trust, everyone else bring data - even if you are an RE King :)
PS: I never said RE will crash but what do you call those who avoided buying in 2014 and avoided the loss on cost of capital of 30%, while RE preserved the capital intact :)
- There is no data to prove that the RE price appreciated well in the past 4 years ('Location' based appreciations exempted... like due to sudden developments in the infra of the location).
It will not 'crash' as mentioned here.... But, where is the appreciation ?
Please check the link for the Jobs data pointed out by Chief Economic Adviser.
- http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/policy/nclt-must-treat-homebuyers-at-par-with-banks-assocham/articleshow/60143176.cms This is the trust level for person who want to invest in Real estate... Real Estate is in deep shit because of the attitude of the Builders and Agents... Now they are getting their due..
When NPA raised 3% the Bank lobby was saying just 3 % we are ok. Not sure what level they are currently in.
and it is bound to increase further... We have larger problem to tackle... If RE is doing so well.. go around chennai and see how many projects have unsold flats after 3- 5 yearsCommentQuote0Flag
Urapakkam for 485psft and I was sitting on 500psft. In 2011 the price was at 2400-2500 and it is almost there for past 4 years.
(you meant the RE price stagnation for more than 4 years).
All my investments are giving me close to 20% CAGR and they are lands in Chennai.
(If the RE price stagnates for more than 4 years then how can it give 20% CAGR ? ).
Between 2013-17 market has consolidated and it is time for a big upsurge. In 2020 the prices might have gone up even 5 times from now and you will not believe.
(any data ? Even the RE experts expect another stagnation for the next 3 years).
That is what happened between 2003 and 2008.
(and, what happened between 2009 and 2013).
Why the RE price stagnation between 2013 2017 (as you mentioned here) ?
What is the reason for the stagnation ?
- The 4 year or so of consolidation is almost over and another bull phase is on the wind.
Yet another Tarot reading. Most sensible RE investors knows why a bull phase will start and reason and will never predicts when. With RE King, it is the reverse. Seems to possess the clock for RE cycle. With auto drivers pep talks as anecdotes, that is where one ends up with.
Some folks never understand since that is what God trusted them with! No problem.
Even broken clock is right twice in a day. Bring the data and reason with us on why the consolidation will end in 4 years and why bull phase will begin. Enough of Parrot Josiyams.All my investments are giving me close to 20% CAGR and they are lands in Chennai. Full stop.
We are not born yesterday. At 20%, investments double in 3.75 years. Such claims rest in grave. Period.I give up.
Reason with us on your bull crap and give up. You are yet to explain the magical 20% CAGR BS (Bull story :)) and why.In 2020 the prices might have gone up even 5 times from now and you will not believe.
AiyoyO! This is getting to be too delusional. Pl give up as your previous statement claims. I rest my case.CommentQuote0Flag
- With an aim of helping Maverick write "something" on the board, I write the following. Maverick has nothing new to write so he needs cut and paste from other's views and then crib about it in his pitiable language.
Anyway the problem today in the market is that there are many beggars disguised as buyers in the market. Let us say I place an advt. for a property in place X for price P. The guy will call you and drop the call and expect you to call back. He will then bore you and then ask for info. Once the info is sent he will go and visit the place. So far tolerable.
Then he will state that the price is only P/2 (50% off) and will explain brilliantly, saying that guideline value is down by 33% and it is a buyer's market. Nobody knows why the guideline value was reduced. Is it linked to black money? I am not going to discuss that here, but the truth is that a buyer who just cant afford something will call for the property. Let us assume I agree to P/2, then the beggar buyer is confused. He is a beggar and not the kind in films with bank accounts, he is penniless but tries to buy something for a song, so he tries to reduce the price further by giving the most brilliant stupid arguments. Let us say I keep reducing further ... what will happen. In summary the deal never goes through.
This sort of behaviour happened in 1998-2002.
In 1996 in Mylapore the price of a house was 60L and in 2002 it was being asked for 35L, then lo and behold in 2006 it was in crores. Now it is probably 6 to 8C. In Malleswaram (Bangalore) land was being quoted at 3K psft in 1996 and in 2002 fellows were asking for 1700psft and in 2004 (exactly in 1 year) it was at 10K psft. Today it is 25K psft! In Bangalore price shot up 10 times between 2003 Jan and 2004 Jan (approx) while the rise happened more slowly until 2007 in Madras. A fellow who wanted land in 2006 in Madras was trying to argue that the price I bought it way back in 1988 was small so why should it rise up? This is the question that the folks are missing today. If they had sense they will yet pick up the stuff, but since they have nothing to pay they just keep asking for lower and lower prices ad infinitum.
Where does it bring us to...Either we have NO Transactions like today or we have COSTLY Transactions like it was say in 1980s, 2003 to 2008 etc. The worst part of intelligence is that folks are confused about price rise of apartments, which is actually a topped up commodity. Price of land goes up in bursts and then stops oscillates in a band and then rises up. Well it can fall and that is what the bears on this forum are hoping endlessly, right from Wiseman in 2006-10 to Mavericks of today. The truth is those who buy land have financial muscles to hold it unless something went wrong in their specific case. Buildings depreciate so the initial rise in flat prices dont continue endlessly. Finally price of DLF shares or any Housing company does not reflect RE. On this board Brilliant folks like Maverick make a Kichdi of all these stuffs and then come up with some Brilliant answers. Well those who read it and follow it are doomed? They will end up with no transactions and no wealth increase. However if you are clever and read Maverick's comment for getting a good night's sleep then Maverick is honoured the board is successful and you dont lose anything.
- Originally Posted by maverick007
We are not born yesterday. At 20%, investments double in 3.75 years. Such claims rest in grave. Period.
Brains cant be bought in the mutton shop, so some folks cant become intelligent. 20% CAGR does not mean a continuous 20% growth. Ofcourse many who use words like CAGR will not know how to take Logarithms! So for such folks let me give one example. A land I bought in 1988 for 1.1L is today worth 2.8C as per some broker (I ask for more!). In 29 years this gives a CAGR of 1.21. If Maverick wont understand maths, let him take a Scientific calculator (does he know Science?) and do 1.21^29 and multiply by 1.1L. (^ means power...do you understand such mathematical operations dear Maverick or you need a quick course on that!).
The above does not mean that in 2006 the CAGR was 1.21 it was actually higher and even higher around 2011-12 if I remember right. In 2001 it was around 1.21 I think. In other words in long periods of time, prices reach a steady state CAGR which ofcourse is dependent on the Interest regime but is fairly explainable in the Indian context. This does not mean that in 1994 the price was 1.21^5 times 1.1L because prices rise in bursts and very often go through a Initial, Growth, Maturiy phases and certainly we are not in the Decline phase.
If we are in the Decline phase then I will expect atleast 2L SW employees retrenched tomorrow and that will lead to another 40L jobs go in related activities. The plumber will charge Rs2 to do a job and Maverick will not have time to look at any monitor! Hope my point is understood.CommentQuote0Flag
- Let us assume I agree to P/2, then the beggar buyer is confused.
??? Pl anyone who followed this gibberish, pl send me a PM.He is a beggar and not the kind in films with bank accounts, he is penniless but tries to buy something for a song, so he tries to reduce the price further by giving the most brilliant stupid arguments.
???? Beggars are penniless - what do you mean by he is penniless?Let us say I keep reducing further ... what will happen. In summary the deal never goes through.
This sort of behaviour happened in 1998-2002.
Complete inanity. Is that English? Fail to comprehend. Looks like your investments must be in Royapuram Seaside :)
Pl share what the 'lonely' people share in villages - Cushman is waiting to take their research inputs. :)CommentQuote0Flag
- His Villa in 3rd main road P block built in One ground with 3.5K sqft builtup area has no takers for 4.5C as he wanted to sell and consolidate his properties in Annanagar.
Resale Properties of Big value transactions say above 2C are not moving fast. Villas which have value of 4/5C finding difficulty in getting buyer and hence such transactions are now rare.
@RE King; Above is the on-the-ground scenario in Anna Nagar. Wake up and smell the coffee.Why aren't the Villagers moving in to the city with alliance with Auto Drivers storm these properties take the bargains....Just asking...CommentQuote0Flag
- Excellent summary and it really helps the buyers...Thanks for the details and summary...CommentQuote0Flag
- I-T department using data analytics in order to catch tax evaders
- God Save the King.Whom to and whom not to believe.Just today I saw an advert in media advertising a flat costing Rs.10,000 plus in Nanganallur which I believe used to be in the 7-8 K prior to demonsterCommentQuote0Flag
- Originally Posted by RangadoraiGod Save the King.Whom to and whom not to believe.Just today I saw an advert in media advertising a flat costing Rs.10,000 plus in Nanganallur which I believe used to be in the 7-8 K prior to demonster
I think you must be referring to Lancor Courtyard. Other than Courtyard, for others to have a 5 digit price in Nanganallur for resale should be nuts. Or a King :)
But, even that 5 digit psft of Courtyard is unlikely to be a pretty story. IREF has a thread on that project opened in 2012. Read the first post and you will know the pain if anyone ever bought it at that price. It is a learning to look back on such crazy pricing and how the premium was justified by Lancor then - pl do search that thread, locate and introspect on how our mind works to get justified on pricing (or retrospect!). We need bulls from Spain to lift the current price !!
I had a chance to speak to the COO of Lancor and these are some of the factors listed by him to justify the pricing:
1) First of its kind premium project in Nanganallur
2) Materials sourced from all over the world. He repeatedly mentioned that they use tiles imported from Spain for Bathroom and Kitchen.
3) All apartments come fully air conditioned.
4) The project maintenance is undertaken by their own subsidiary Lancor Holdings.
He was of the opinion that not many builders use this kind of architecture or detailing in any project be it inside or outside the city.CommentQuote1Flag