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Property Price Trends in Chennai

Last updated: July 14 2020
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  • Re : Property Price Trends in Chennai

    Originally posted by contra View Post
    It is costing Rs.2350/sq.ft at sriperambadur and Rs.2300/sq.ft at vandalur zoo.

    Can't understand how people are still expecting RE to bottom out.

    Infact Rs.5800/Sq.ft at United India colony, kodambakkam in the heart of south madras looks underpriced when compared to Rs.2300/sq.ft at Vandalur zoo which is 70 kms from Anna Salai.
    Nice to your comparison on RE Prices in Kodambakkam & Vandalur/Srip.

    When you and me doing through analysis before committing reasonably good amount on RE , Dont you think that the Promoter who is investing crores would have done due analysis before pricing ? It appears that the promoter would be knowing the pulse of the market and realised the price that he can command. Am sure still he would be making 30-40 % as profit margin.

    Its just depends on howlong a promoter takes to realise the pulse of the market and the prolonged mute mode will drive him out of market or dormant.

    As a bull ,when seeing this Kodambakkam project underpriced & foresee a bull-run, you should quickly grab this under-priced property and make huge profit.
    Last edited May 25 2009, 02:07 PM.

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    • Re : Property Price Trends in Chennai

      Originally posted by contra View Post
      Can't understand how people are still expecting RE to bottom out.
      Whether the market should be timed and how to identify the bottom were my first questions when I joined this forum.

      Got some useful replies from Wiseman that helped me form a opinion.

      It is widely agreed that bottom can be identified only in hindsight, not while its happening.Trying too much to time the market is also considered to be counter-productive.

      I will not be convinced that we have hit the bottom unless I see considerable 10% sustainable appreciation over earlier price.

      Since we dont have 52 week high/low for RE to identify the attractiveness, I believe its safe to invest in good location only when the markets look up, and not blindly in the hope that it will go up even further while prices are correcting downwards.

      Though when we buy RE doesnt matter in the long term, It is vital because entry is tied to affordability and the exit prospects depends on the location.

      With the possibility of another wave of correction imminent, The huge savings one could earn by investing the 10-20% extra cash elsewhere and the amount of interest outing one can avoid in case of home loans coupled with the insecure job environment are reasons strong enough to wait till the bottom.

      If someone could post data of any increase in price between the enquires they have made recently it will be very useful.

      Would like to also hear about additional methods to identify that bottom while trying to time the market.

      It shall help everyone make an informed decision and arrive at a "Buy-Now" Indicator.
      Last edited May 25 2009, 04:50 PM.

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      • Re : Property Price Trends in Chennai

        With RE not having an index independantly (RE shares do not mean a thing!), all those bottoming, dow theory, TA dont really matter. So what you are saying might not work, Nabhishek. A mental pulse and personal data gathering is the only way. For example I track the price of my properties and use that as data for TA (technical analysis). So u got to do it that way. Until an index exists, there will be this bull bear friction. Even after an index exists it wont really mean that folks here will understand when to buy or sell. Do they understand the same in stock markets?

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        • Re : Property Price Trends in Chennai

          A refrresher to figure out bottom ...

          Originally posted by nabishek View Post
          Whether the market should be timed and how to identify the bottom were my first questions when I joined this forum.

          Got some useful replies from Wiseman that helped me form a opinion.

          It is widely agreed that bottom can be identified only in hindsight, not while its happening.Trying too much to time the market is also considered to be counter-productive.

          I will not be convinced that we have hit the bottom unless I see considerable 10% sustainable appreciation over earlier price.

          Since we dont have 52 week high/low for RE to identify the attractiveness, I believe its safe to invest in good location only when the markets look up, and not blindly in the hope that it will go up even further while prices are correcting downwards.

          Though when we buy RE doesnt matter in the long term, It is vital because entry is tied to affordability and the exit prospects depends on the location.

          With the possibility of another wave of correction imminent, The huge savings one could earn by investing the 10-20% extra cash elsewhere and the amount of interest outing one can avoid in case of home loans coupled with the insecure job environment are reasons strong enough to wait till the bottom.

          If someone could post data of any increase in price between the enquires they have made recently it will be very useful.

          Would like to also hear about additional methods to identify that bottom while trying to time the market.

          It shall help everyone make an informed decision and arrive at a "Buy-Now" Indicator.

          Nabishek,

          Thanks for your vote of confidence. I was losing confidence that people will never learn as they have been fed on this last 5 years of excess-credit fuelled bull-bull-bullcrap!

          The stock markets teach you a thing or two about timing the change in trends. Besides a sustained 10% increase in prices, you might also add another bunch of indicators:

          - Stabilization of job scene with more jobs added than lost
          - Stabilization of salaries
          - Significant increase in volumes of enquiries as well as bookings of RE
          - Higher bottoms in Stock Indices with sustained increase in volumes

          One of the most important (if not the most important) indicators of a major bottom is the total capitulation / surrender of the bulls resulting in total disinterest (almost hate) towards the asset class and a general feeling in the market that there is no foreseeable bottom. This happened in 1998 before that crash ended 80% from the top. Seeing the enthusiasm of the youngsters to jump in every 15% decline in prices crying "bottom, bottom" confirms to me that this is yet another false bottom!

          Obviously we are also looking at sustained increase in World Trade, exports, etc - which btw will take some years under present circumstances!!!

          Please note that the Stock Market is a definitive leading indicator of underlying trends by a margin of 6 - 9 months. I have been saying this from the beginning and it is now percolating into people's understanding and they are starting to appreciate these empiricals-based thumbrules.

          RE will bottom out and pick up only when underlying fundamental reasons turn around in a sustained way!!!

          cheers
          Last edited May 26 2009, 09:13 PM.

          Comment


          • Re : Property Price Trends in Chennai

            Originally posted by nabishek View Post

            It shall help everyone make an informed decision and arrive at a "Buy-Now" Indicator.
            Nabhishek,

            Even if someone knows the "Buy-Now" indicator do you think he/she will share it with everyone rather then keep it to themselves.

            So called experts will share the tricks and write "how to succed" "best investment" those kind of books only after their own investments have substancially increased so that they can sell them to others. Then people like you will admire such experts, buy such books and invest at Rs.4000 when same thing was available at Rs.1000 just before that expert came into picture. Ofcourse Rs.4000 is also a good buy, because tomorrow it could reach Rs.8000. But than if you had listened to your own insights then wait for some expert to guide your thoughts you could have got 800% appreciation then just 50% appreciation.

            Today before another big expected rise in the future, when Natraj and myself are giving free advice that it is better to invest/buy real estate in India now then in future when prices will be higher due to global monetary liquidity being unleased, you are saying Wiseman has guided you not to buy. What can we do.

            Just because prices have gone up 8-10 times from 2004 does not mean that real estate is a bubble. Infact this could just be a beginning and in future prices can go to even higher levels.
            Last edited May 26 2009, 10:18 PM. Reason: spelling

            Comment


            • Re : Property Price Trends in Chennai

              The question is why?!

              Originally posted by contra View Post
              Nabhishek,

              Even if someone knows the "Buy-Now" indicator do you think he/she will share it with everyone rather then keep it to themselves.

              So called experts will share the tricks and write "how to succed" "best investment" those kind of books only after their own investments have substancially increased so that they can sell them to others. Then people like you will admire such experts, buy such books and invest at Rs.4000 when same thing was available at Rs.1000 just before that expert came into picture. Ofcourse Rs.4000 is also a good buy, because tomorrow it could reach Rs.8000. But than if you had listened to your own insights then wait for some expert to guide your thoughts you could have got 800% appreciation then just 50% appreciation.

              Today before another big expected rise in the future, when Natraj and myself are giving free advice that it is better to invest/buy real estate in India now then in future when prices will be higher due to global monetary liquidity being unleased, you are saying Wiseman has guided you not to buy. What can we do.

              Just because prices have gone up 8-10 times from 2004 does not mean that real estate is a bubble. Infact this could just be a beginning and in future prices can go to even higher levels.

              Contra,

              Price rise is universal - except maybe for electronics where price-performance is always declining (meaning price is coming down for a given level of performance).

              So you will find that rice, which was Rs.5 a decade or so ago is now Rs.40 and so on.

              So, saying that buy now so that you can see it go up in 10 years is a no-brainer.

              What Mr. Wiseman is saying is that for the moment, RE has gotten ahead of its intrinsic value. And this has been going on for the last 5 years. While longterm rise in asset prices is a given, it is all about the relative rise in asset values and what would be the opportune moment to buy your most valuable asset - RE.

              If the longterm increase in asset prices like land is around 13% - 15% compounded, then a 6 times rise in 5 years giving a CAGR of 43% will not sustain. If it is to sustain, then the land/flat you buy now for 1C should be
              35 Crores in 10 years and 1275 Crores in 20 years.

              For prices to correct to match a 15% CAGR from 2004 prices, then it should take 13 years from 2004, which gives us a dateline of 2017. Maybe it may be a little shorter, but this is the likely timeline.

              This could take either of 2 trajectories.

              1. It could remain relatively flat till an inflation adjusted price of 2008 peak is reached by 2015-17. So, while price remains same for the next 8-10 years, your money will be worth far less then as now.

              2. Price could correct significantly and then rise significantly to give you the same result.

              Either way, I would like my money to gain in relative value so that, when I buy property, I will still be getting it much cheaper than if I bought it now and sat on it till 2015-17.

              Was my argument clear?

              cheers

              Comment


              • Re : Property Price Trends in Chennai

                Originally posted by wiseman View Post
                Contra,

                Price rise is universal - except maybe for electronics where price-performance is always declining (meaning price is coming down for a given level of performance).

                So you will find that rice, which was Rs.5 a decade or so ago is now Rs.40 and so on.

                So, saying that buy now so that you can see it go up in 10 years is a no-brainer.

                What Mr. Wiseman is saying is that for the moment, RE has gotten ahead of its intrinsic value. And this has been going on for the last 5 years. While longterm rise in asset prices is a given, it is all about the relative rise in asset values and what would be the opportune moment to buy your most valuable asset - RE.

                If the longterm increase in asset prices like land is around 13% - 15% compounded, then a 6 times rise in 5 years giving a CAGR of 43% will not sustain. If it is to sustain, then the land/flat you buy now for 1C should be
                35 Crores in 10 years and 1275 Crores in 20 years.

                For prices to correct to match a 15% CAGR from 2004 prices, then it should take 13 years from 2004, which gives us a dateline of 2017. Maybe it may be a little shorter, but this is the likely timeline.

                This could take either of 2 trajectories.

                1. It could remain relatively flat till an inflation adjusted price of 2008 peak is reached by 2015-17. So, while price remains same for the next 8-10 years, your money will be worth far less then as now.

                2. Price could correct significantly and then rise significantly to give you the same result.

                Either way, I would like my money to gain in relative value so that, when I buy property, I will still be getting it much cheaper than if I bought it now and sat on it till 2015-17.

                Was my argument clear?

                cheers
                Just a real layman example without using any CAGR calculations etc.

                In 1979 a property in south bangalore was priced at Rs.20000 only when it was alloted by Karnataka Housing Board(KHB). In 1999 after 20 years, the price of that property was Rs.20 lacs.

                If past was an indicator than in 2019 that same property should be Rs.20 crores. At present in 2009 it is still available at Rs.1.25 Crore.

                Comment


                • Re : Property Price Trends in Chennai

                  Originally posted by wiseman View Post
                  Contra,

                  Price rise is universal - except maybe for electronics where price-performance is always declining (meaning price is coming down for a given level of performance).

                  So you will find that rice, which was Rs.5 a decade or so ago is now Rs.40 and so on.

                  So, saying that buy now so that you can see it go up in 10 years is a no-brainer.

                  What Mr. Wiseman is saying is that for the moment, RE has gotten ahead of its intrinsic value. And this has been going on for the last 5 years. While longterm rise in asset prices is a given, it is all about the relative rise in asset values and what would be the opportune moment to buy your most valuable asset - RE.

                  If the longterm increase in asset prices like land is around 13% - 15% compounded, then a 6 times rise in 5 years giving a CAGR of 43% will not sustain. If it is to sustain, then the land/flat you buy now for 1C should be
                  35 Crores in 10 years and 1275 Crores in 20 years.

                  For prices to correct to match a 15% CAGR from 2004 prices, then it should take 13 years from 2004, which gives us a dateline of 2017. Maybe it may be a little shorter, but this is the likely timeline.

                  This could take either of 2 trajectories.

                  1. It could remain relatively flat till an inflation adjusted price of 2008 peak is reached by 2015-17. So, while price remains same for the next 8-10 years, your money will be worth far less then as now.

                  2. Price could correct significantly and then rise significantly to give you the same result.

                  Either way, I would like my money to gain in relative value so that, when I buy property, I will still be getting it much cheaper than if I bought it now and sat on it till 2015-17.

                  Was my argument clear?

                  cheers
                  Aha, again Wiseman caught red handed. He says "What Mr. Wiseman is saying" in third person. So Wiseman has mistakenly assumed he has logged in into another of his million fake ids here to praise himself la Mr. Wiseman and unfortunately forgotten it is his original id.
                  Now we all know why WISEMAN is CONMAN. Cheers.

                  Comment


                  • Re : Property Price Trends in Chennai

                    The current RE boom caused big appreciations (800-1000%) only in the outskirts and emerging locations like velachery, porur (Chennai) or Whitefield, Hebbal (Bangalore) or Gurgaon(Delhi).

                    Areas in city limits like Besant Nagar (Chennai) or Jayanagar 9th block (Bangalore) though they seem highly priced have seen only moderate 300-400% appreciation which makes them still a buy and undervalued considering their historical average.

                    Comment


                    • Re : Property Price Trends in Chennai

                      Originally posted by Natarajg007 View Post
                      Aha, again Wiseman caught red handed. He says "What Mr. Wiseman is saying" in third person. So Wiseman has mistakenly assumed he has logged in into another of his million fake ids here to praise himself la Mr. Wiseman and unfortunately forgotten it is his original id.
                      Now we all know why WISEMAN is CONMAN. Cheers.

                      Imbecile!!!

                      Comment

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