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Property Price Trends in Chennai

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  • Re : Property Price Trends in Chennai

    Thanks

    Dear Abishek,

    Thanks a lot for your valuable information.

    I am planning to book one flat in Prince foundations, Tondiarpet project. Please give yur valuable suggestion at the earliest.

    Narasimha Rao
    rao.khazanagmail.com

    Originally posted by nabishek View Post
    Hi Friends,

    I had been to the FAIRPRO '09 Fair.My Impression after seeing, is that prices are stagnating for all ongoing projects and builders are trying hard to hold them up.

    Prices are 10-20% lower for new projects in the pipeline and for ready to occupy flats.

    The discount offered at the stall was very less and were in the range 150-500 Rs/sqft max.

    For the benefit of fellow members I am posting the project/price details of some of the properties.



    There are lots of properties and also lots of potential buyers.There is sure a sense of uncertainity among the builders and also the buyers on when to make the next move.It was evident that correction in RE prices have started to happen.

    Requesting members to respond with their thoughts on the current trend.

    Comment


    • Re : Property Price Trends in Chennai

      Finally, we agree!

      Originally posted by Natarajg007 View Post
      I agree with the argument that price arbitrage opportunities will die soon. How soon is the question. I for one thought I was overpaid in 2003, but today I know jokers getting big deals. In other words though the logic is fine, it takes a super fast train lots of distance to stop. Just pressing the brakes wont stop the train next second. Something Wiseman wont understand.
      To me the brakes will stop the train but maybe in 2015 or maybe in 2030, who knows. To me today the train at top speed is yet running fast, I mean the TRAIN OF INDIAN ECONOMY.
      Nats,

      We finally agree without any bad words! Thanks.

      I would like to qualify the Indian IT train more as a juggernaut (heavy with massive momentum rather than light with high speed). I suppose that is what you meant.

      Juggernauts (originally from the Indian word Jagannath) are hard to stop due to their inertia (something we all learn in high school but forget!). Many people find this out when they draw the rath at the Puri-Jagannath temple festival when they accidentally come under it's wheels.

      There are a few types of brakes that will act to slow down (not stop) the Indian IT Juggernaut.

      1. The massive deflation and contraction will make many outsourced jobs simply disappear. This will severely depress addition of jobs in Indian IT and make it much less attractive in terms of job additions and salary increases. Over time, talent will migrate somewhere else. For example, Nats leaving the IT area to get into other things itself is a pointer to talent exodus!

      2. Other, poorer, hungrier, but equally talented countries will vie with us for a much smaller pie. Indian IT talent has got fat (on high, undeserved salaries) and lazy like the US talent. This will enable others to easily outbid us due to their hunger.

      3. Policies that made us fat and lazy - like to zero tax regime - will soon disappear (check out the whining of NRN and Premji in EcoTimes today 27 May). This will bring down profitability to 12% - 15% Net Profit margin which is like any other industry. Salaries, investments and talent will drop off and this will convert this fast train to a passenger which stops at every small station.

      cheers

      Comment


      • Re : Property Price Trends in Chennai

        Truth is always Bitter

        Agree or dont agree.. Truth is always Bitter. In US they are seeing all the possibilities to bring back their job. Obama working on new tax code for those who are outsourcing the jobs. We will not see the impact today or tomorrow, but it is on the way. As a result there will be more job loss, salary correction will happen.. and many un imagined things will happen. what people will do with their heavy investment? how will people repay their loans? hmn.. God help India!

        Comment


        • Re : Property Price Trends in Chennai

          Originally posted by mr.mmsk View Post
          Agree or dont agree.. Truth is always Bitter. In US they are seeing all the possibilities to bring back their job. Obama working on new tax code for those who are outsourcing the jobs. We will not see the impact today or tomorrow, but it is on the way. As a result there will be more job loss, salary correction will happen.. and many un imagined things will happen. what people will do with their heavy investment? how will people repay their loans? hmn.. God help India!
          This is what these funny US based jokers talk! First they start with US is dying and then they pity India. As if India is the 51st state of USA. I suspect these sort of folks have to be banned from this board for showing disrespect to India!

          Comment


          • Re : Property Price Trends in Chennai

            Originally posted by wiseman View Post
            Nats,

            We finally agree without any bad words! Thanks.

            I would like to qualify the Indian IT train more as a juggernaut (heavy with massive momentum rather than light with high speed). I suppose that is what you meant.

            Juggernauts (originally from the Indian word Jagannath) are hard to stop due to their inertia (something we all learn in high school but forget!). Many people find this out when they draw the rath at the Puri-Jagannath temple festival when they accidentally come under it's wheels.

            There are a few types of brakes that will act to slow down (not stop) the Indian IT Juggernaut.

            1. The massive deflation and contraction will make many outsourced jobs simply disappear. This will severely depress addition of jobs in Indian IT and make it much less attractive in terms of job additions and salary increases. Over time, talent will migrate somewhere else. For example, Nats leaving the IT area to get into other things itself is a pointer to talent exodus!

            2. Other, poorer, hungrier, but equally talented countries will vie with us for a much smaller pie. Indian IT talent has got fat (on high, undeserved salaries) and lazy like the US talent. This will enable others to easily outbid us due to their hunger.

            3. Policies that made us fat and lazy - like to zero tax regime - will soon disappear (check out the whining of NRN and Premji in EcoTimes today 27 May). This will bring down profitability to 12% - 15% Net Profit margin which is like any other industry. Salaries, investments and talent will drop off and this will convert this fast train to a passenger which stops at every small station.

            cheers
            All well said, but where is the matter of RE investment. As the Juggernaut moves it will only continue. So if I were you I will buy into the Indian Bull RE market and make a fortune for the next few years. The momentum will take India a very long time before the economy freezes. US economy with one third number of citizens and having already run its 1980s-90s momentum is slowly coming to a halt. Not India.
            So I assume you will atlast agree that RE in Chennai and Bangalore will actually shoot up once again till it reaches a peak maybe in 2015-30 period. Then we can all party the BEAR STORY. Till then it is pure BULL STUFF.

            Comment


            • Re : Property Price Trends in Chennai

              Sorry! This is where we disagree!

              Originally posted by Natarajg007 View Post
              All well said, but where is the matter of RE investment. As the Juggernaut moves it will only continue. So if I were you I will buy into the Indian Bull RE market and make a fortune for the next few years. The momentum will take India a very long time before the economy freezes. US economy with one third number of citizens and having already run its 1980s-90s momentum is slowly coming to a halt. Not India.
              So I assume you will atlast agree that RE in Chennai and Bangalore will actually shoot up once again till it reaches a peak maybe in 2015-30 period. Then we can all party the BEAR STORY. Till then it is pure BULL STUFF.
              Not so soon, Nats!

              First the bears will rule the roost - as they already are now. And by this I mean volumes as well as value declines.

              When the price is right (and it will be right sooner or later), I will become a bull and buy. Because, from times immemorial buying major assets at the right price was always the surest and quickest way to building a fortune and staying positive in our wealth position - and anyone who says that buying a house is only about staying in it and not in it's building wealth for them and their 7 generations following is fooling himself and no one else!

              Ultimately, a property bought at 40 lakhs with cash after 3 years instead of now at 80 lakhs will reach 1.5 crores sometime in the next decade or two.

              At that point, I will have profited by 1.1C. While the person who took a 70 lakh loan will have just broken even, having paid 80L for the house and another 70L to the banker!!!

              Spending 20 years to shell out 1.5C to the builder and broker after paying 30% tax on your salary and then having no added value on your house does seem a rather silly way to throw / gift your money to the builder and banker, don't you think?!

              cheers

              Comment


              • Re : Property Price Trends in Chennai

                Originally posted by narsim_kal View Post
                Dear Abishek,

                Thanks a lot for your valuable information.

                I am planning to book one flat in Prince foundations, Tondiarpet project. Please give yur valuable suggestion at the earliest.

                Narasimha Rao
                rao.khazanagmail.com
                Wish could help, but i am not very familiar with that area and the current rate prevalent there to be able to comment on the project.

                I remember seeing an ad for prelaunch of this project quoting arnd 2000-2500/sqft.

                Comment


                • Re : Property Price Trends in Chennai

                  Originally posted by wiseman View Post
                  Spending 20 years to shell out 1.5C to the builder and broker after paying 30% tax on your salary and then having no added value on your house does seem a rather silly way to throw / gift your money to the builder and banker, don't you think?!

                  This is plain awsomeness!! The only thing that can protect investments is to buy very very low... + not buy from bulls in a bear market
                  + the monthly rent cost incurred.. if you are not staying in the same property
                  + the 30% tax on rental income if you are renting it out
                  + the capital gains tax when you sell it at 1.5cr
                  + the maintainence costs incurred on the property throughout the period

                  Comment


                  • Re : Property Price Trends in Chennai

                    Originally posted by wiseman View Post

                    Ultimately, a property bought at 40 lakhs with cash after 3 years instead of now at 80 lakhs will reach 1.5 crores sometime in the next decade or two.

                    At that point, I will have profited by 1.1C. While the person who took a 70 lakh loan will have just broken even, having paid 80L for the house and another 70L to the banker!!!

                    Spending 20 years to shell out 1.5C to the builder and broker after paying 30% tax on your salary and then having no added value on your house does seem a rather silly way to throw / gift your money to the builder and banker, don't you think?!

                    cheers
                    This scenario would work only if

                    (1) Rs.80 lakh property today falls to Rs.40 lakhs after 3 years.

                    (2) Rs.80 lakh propety today is worth only Rs.1.5 crores after 20 years.

                    If the above 2 points were to happen, than it would make sense to wait and buy after 3 years with Rs.40 lakhs full cash without taking any home loan.

                    Let's continue this discussion after 3 years.

                    Comment


                    • Re : Property Price Trends in Chennai

                      Originally posted by Natarajg007 View Post
                      Hi Nabhishek, As usual you have a nice way of presentation. I am not sure whether contra wants to make a bull out of you but to me, your being bearish shows the other side of the coin rather sensibly than most of the NRI bears (who lost their bag baggage and are living out of their komanams!) do.
                      As for your comment about sitting on land. Infact INVESTMENT in RE means buying land, NOT buying Flats. Unfortunately half baked so called educated folks bought flats, not one but many. They are what is called as greedy lazy pigs. They will work in a company to get a fixed salary and a regular hike and expect it with or without delivery of goods. They will use company resources, read internet and computers to trade in stock markets. They will use their office time to hunt for flats and then invest there assuming it will rise sky high.
                      As I have explained before LAND appreciates, BUILDING depreciates. So during the beginning of the bull phase like 2004 even flats bought by them appreciated primarily because of super hike in land, but later their trick failed.
                      Why do they buy flats? Since they do not have the time to research land and negotiate and check documents.
                      In summary our lazy souls who misuse their paymaster resources have to be punished. That will happen by job losses, lowered pay and flat price falling all justified for sure.
                      So if you might want to be adviced. My view is that 2009 is la 2003-04. It is the next big upmove, which will put 2004 to shame. Now how do I know it.
                      Unlike Wiseman who reads OLD ECO books and that too lessons apart and vomits out data, I read charts and analyse technical data. Go and check for Japanese RE charts. They say what I said.
                      I planned to sell some RE in 2008 early part as I knew it was a top. The sign was my cousin bought a flat (and he has not done it after 15 years in the SW industry) and so did another person. THey were both the sort of folks who will enter when the game is over! However I did not sell. Japanese RE charts! In other words, though I hate to disclose, the RE is going to go one more major upmove. Even Indian economy will move up terribly upwards, whether our NRI friends from Kangaroo land to Bald eagles like it or not. Then it will top out.
                      This move will make the guy who missed the 50L to 2C game in 2004 look like an angel! Now it may be 50L to 5C. And dont ask me why? Could you have answered the current scenario in 2004? Charts show it, is all I can say.
                      All I can tell is, now we are in the next entry point for a BIG ride. How long? Maybe another 3 to 5 years, maybe only 1 year. I wont say that now. I can sense the top by examples I said. So that same cousin might buy another flat thinking it is fine, a conservative investing not for self use!! That will be the top.
                      Or you might see WIseman talking bullish! Well you Nabhishek might talk super bullish! These are all sure shot points to find the top! Then I will exit.
                      Even then not fully. Maybe 10% of my RE investments. That is to skim some milk.
                      Since in the long run RE will continue to be a good cash cow.
                      Finally Nabhishek your views are interesting and I will like to see them regularly. Regards.
                      Thanks nataraj, I shall keep your advice in mind.Your method of using technical analysis and observing human psychology is unique.Thanks for the tip, I want to learn it and put it to use someday.

                      I have great faith in RE, and is a sure shot wealth creator in my opinion.

                      Frankly, I was thinking and expecting the top to occur somewhere around 2010 and it would take another couple of years to bottom out.

                      I had stopped searching for property during 2006-2008 When price rose beyond my affordability.The haughtiness displayed by the builders during the time and preference given to people who took loans,crazy meaningless escalation price defying logic and locations that dont even feature in chennai map being sold at exorbitant prices convinced me that a huge bubble is building up which was bound to burst someday.

                      I chose to stay away and was planning my entry around 2015 by when I should be personally, professionally and financially better placed.

                      I was pleasantly surprised to see prices have stagnated since late 2007 and have started to dip downwards and got interested again.The top got pre-empted due to various reasons that i didnt anticipate then, including global economic slowdown.

                      Contrary to the general belief, that market looking up and with more liquidity will lead to increase in price, I expect to see further correction and better deals coming soon at realistic prices.

                      All the unsold inventory that were kept under the wraps by builders and owners because of less demand and lull in the market would make it back with better discounts.As for demand, there are scores of people waiting to buy at the right price.

                      Builders and sellers cannot afford a price increase and risk scaring away people who have cash and are interested buying now.

                      Its a buyers market till the existing inventory is completely absorbed.

                      My contention has always been a rise and a new top greater than the last one is surely possible, but not before we see another phase of correction that provides value for money.Thats when demand will be sustained leading to gradual appreciation of assets.

                      I feel it would be a healthy development, and is vital for the economy to keep moving.

                      Keeping my fingers crossed.

                      Comment

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