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Property Price Trends in Chennai

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  • Re : Property Price Trends in Chennai

    Originally posted by RE King View Post

    Brilliant Maverick...you know everything! Okey? I assume you are using Tarrot cards to predict.
    I know nothing about future. But, I stand to reason and substantiate what I say. You may disagree. Where is yours? Say something with substance besides 'Madrasi' stories.
    Last edited by maverick007; April 10 2017, 06:23 PM.

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    • Re : Property Price Trends in Chennai

      Insults/Flaming
      IREF was put together for people to come together and help each other, collaborate and discuss in a positive way – not bash on someone because you don't like their idea, or because they don't share the same views as you. We are big into the free speech idea here. So you're free to say what you think – but do it in a constructive and positive way. We encourage mature debates – discourage childish arguments. Personal attacks, insults, rudeness, racism, threats, name calling or unnecessarily inflammatory posts will NOT be tolerated. Common courtesy, politeness and respect for fellow members, along with constructive posting of opinions are essential in preventing posts from being edited and/or deleted, or having threads locked. Whilst we encourage healthy disagreement/debate, please maintain respect towards fellow members at all times.
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      • Re : Property Price Trends in Chennai


        In 1989 we bought a plot of land in Palavakkam, let us say for X Rs. A couple of years later when we visited the plot a fellow with land some 200m away said that we should have only paid .67X Rs. Can we say he wanted to piss us off or was he right or wrong! We did not bother. Today the value of the land has become atleast 200 times the price. Maverick will call it as luck, but it was planned investment. At 200 the CAGR is at 20%. If the land was bought at .67X then the CAGR will be 21.7%. So to gain that 1.7% we spend humongous years of research to get a land and in that time the price trebles or quadruples and then we sadly buy it at that price...that is what WEAK HANDS ARE. Worse still they never buy it and always live as Labour and not as Capitalists.
        Now the Big Hands have money and if they are afforded time by the Mavericks to keep the price not moving up fast they can invest carefully.
        So my advice is, if you are trying to park your money in RE do it now. Maybe you missed 20% or gained 20%, in the long run it is gain. Incidentally I am talking about Land not Apartments. Flats are meant for living not for investing. Anyway wish Maverick all the best in his Tarrot reading.
        PS. The same money in FD at say even an average rate of 10% over this 29 year period would have made X to 15 times instead of 200 times and remember that is assuming no tax is paid on interest. Try to check out o Nify and it has hardly grown 9 times in 20 years and if I extrapolate it will be 24 times in 29 years. The best part of it is that RE gives safety. If you want you can build a house and live. If you dont want you can go there and play football. You can just keep it quite like me and sleep over it. In simple RE has been the best investment bet in India simply because Indian population has multiplied and worse still they have tried to concentrate in pockets of the country. I wont tell you to buy land in a village in TN where the population is generally dwindling. Chennai RE has shot up because the whole of TN is sitting there since 2000 and since 2015 a huge part of North India is sitting there. That is the reason that retirement paradise Bangalore has super growth of RE. If you can predict that tomorrow everyone will leave Chennai and the population will drop to 50% then sell all your RE. Just one company say Nkia leaving Chennai means nothing and that is made to look like the end of the world by Mavericks of this forum!
        Last edited by MANOJa; April 11 2017, 10:18 PM. Reason: Insults/Flaming

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        • Re : Property Price Trends in Chennai

          200X in 28 years is awesome - Chennai RE is the greatest asset in the world.

          Bland Index Sensex - between 1980-2014 has done 18.72% CAGR including dividends. No encroachment, extremely liquid. No upkeep. Portable. More importantly - Sensex growth had a driver and basis - earnings growth. Aggregate earnings growth of Sensex Cos must reflect returns in the long term. Earnings growth is directly correlated to GDP growth. Those who invested in Sensex had some thesis.

          What was RE King's thesis for growth for his 'planned investment' in palavakkam in 1989? Nada.

          What is RE King missing in extrapolating the growth of last 30 years blindly to repeat again? Affordability and price levels now and then - he has no clue how inflated prices are now Vs 1989.

          Let me 'explain' - when I say, I mean it:

          In 1989, Gokulapuram DTCP layout was priced at Rs 1.5 psft. Today, it is anywhere near 750-900 psft. 500-600 times in the same 28 years.

          Awesome ? Yes. Chest thumping ? - No.

          Here is why - pretty much any tom dick and harry who invested in clean plots in 1989 era made a bundle. So, there is no need for 'planned investment' then and it seemed to misleadingly attribute that some research was behind such 'plan' - there is none. Throw your dart on any clean, approved plots and sit on it in that era. You made it. No clairvoyance or any insight needed. I can throw more numbers over more areas around 1989 to show you all getting 300-600X is easy and it comes to simply about being there at the 'right place' at the 'right time'. Many wise investors do have the clarity to separate the role of 'skill' and 'luck' in what they ended up as 'returns' and such clarity helps at least in one way - they don't blindly extrapolate forever.

          In 1989, Graduate Engineering Trainees (GET) in reputed PSUs and private Cos like ABB and L&T made Rs 2500 per month (+/- 10%). So, all it takes to buy Gokulapuram plot then was just 2 month salary. Fast forward to 2017 - GET gets Rs 30-35k per month. What can you buy today for 2 times monthly salary? Even Acharapakkam DTCP plots starts at 6L. 20 times the monthly salary. Contrast this with convenient 0.67 price erosion example of RE King and blind extrapolation of past with out any basis - blatantly misleading.

          Why did I choose GET for benchmarking ? Earnings often index inflation much better than anything. Entry level comparison makes it more of apple to apple comparison and easy to explain the effect of purchasing power.

          Now, one can see how inflated the prices now have become - in 30 years. How many of you think 6L (entry level price for any DTCP plots today) will do 200X as RE King thinks? Please raise your hands.
          Last edited by maverick007; April 11 2017, 11:20 PM.

          Comment


          • Rangadorai
            Rangadorai commented
            Editing a comment
            Dear Mav and RE King,
            for some reason Mav tried dissuade and changed the track.I will give you the latest and that too a flat ,I was offered 6,750 IRS per SF in early 2013 which time the project consisting of 42 flats were 80 % complete .As I do not want to own one more flat I flatly refused the offer though I had full cash in my bank account.Even after all the chaos,demonitisation etc, the going rate today is 14,000 per SF.In four year this investment had doubled and there are not many sellers.What say you and I can support this

        • Re : Property Price Trends in Chennai

          Those who read between the lines, and get misled by missing the forest for trees and do not have the basic awareness on how to use an anonymous forum IREF for their decisions, needs education. I get many PMs and replies to my posts - asking me - should they go for it or not. I stay away. I recall Rangadorai; interludes in my generic posts and exchanges talking of broader trends and consequences, where he intercepts for a specific advice in a specific location. If you think I 'dissuaded you and changed track', open a thread, quote all my relevant posts and make your case there. I will respond there. More useful for those on how not to use the IREF.

          My general suggestion for people making RE decisions: Use the IREF posts to get a broader idea and view points. Question the poster. Ask why. Form an opinion of your own that makes more sense to you. To make a decision, please use the 3 lb fattiest organ in the body. Be responsible for the decision. And don't blame others for your misses and poor decisions. IREF does take your word seriously when you accept that you are 18 years of age and more. Making decisions and standing up for it, is the essential part of that acceptance.
          Last edited by maverick007; April 12 2017, 07:50 AM.

          Comment


          • Re : Property Price Trends in Chennai

            I remember asking a specific question to Maverick regarding an investment in OMR and that was very specific and Maveric stayed away from the same saying he does not give specific inputs . This was an open query and not via any pm . I respect Maveric's attitude and we went ahead and bought a property with very good discount and we trusted our own judgement and happy with the same . In the end it all boils to our own judgement and while we can take advice from others , we must not expect them to do all the decisions for us . We have to take responsibility for our own actions .

            Comment


            • Re : Property Price Trends in Chennai

              kubera2016;

              Most of the people who want others to decide for themselves are indecisive, weak-conviction, do poor diligence, just waiting to hang their responsibility on others 'conveniently' because things are too grey for them and find it hard to take it on themselves. Such mindsets also suffer from 'confirmation bias' - tuning only to information and finding acceptance that makes their 'position' and 'decision' comfortable. If you tell them RE will make CAGR of 20% for the next 20 years, you made their day and probably few weeks too

              True investors who decide for themselves are an exact opposite, seek contradicting opinions and would like to see the holes in their thesis and welcome 'reason' based criticism. They know, those information is truly helping them perfect their decision.

              Comment


              • Re : Property Price Trends in Chennai

                Originally posted by maverick007 View Post
                200X in 28 years is awesome - Chennai RE is the greatest asset in the world.

                Bland Index Sensex - between 1980-2014 has done 18.72% CAGR including dividends. No encroachment, extremely liquid. No upkeep. Portable. More importantly - Sensex growth had a driver and basis - earnings growth. Aggregate earnings growth of Sensex Cos must reflect returns in the long term. Earnings growth is directly correlated to GDP growth. Those who invested in Sensex had some thesis.

                What was RE King's thesis for growth for his 'planned investment' in palavakkam in 1989? Nada.

                What is RE King missing in extrapolating the growth of last 30 years blindly to repeat again? Affordability and price levels now and then - he has no clue how inflated prices are now Vs 1989.

                Let me 'explain' - when I say, I mean it:

                In 1989, Gokulapuram DTCP layout was priced at Rs 1.5 psft. Today, it is anywhere near 750-900 psft. 500-600 times in the same 28 years.

                Awesome ? Yes. Chest thumping ? - No.

                Here is why - pretty much any tom dick and harry who invested in clean plots in 1989 era made a bundle. So, there is no need for 'planned investment' then and it seemed to misleadingly attribute that some research was behind such 'plan' - there is none. Throw your dart on any clean, approved plots and sit on it in that era. You made it. No clairvoyance or any insight needed. I can throw more numbers over more areas around 1989 to show you all getting 300-600X is easy and it comes to simply about being there at the 'right place' at the 'right time'. Many wise investors do have the clarity to separate the role of 'skill' and 'luck' in what they ended up as 'returns' and such clarity helps at least in one way - they don't blindly extrapolate forever.

                In 1989, Graduate Engineering Trainees (GET) in reputed PSUs and private Cos like ABB and L&T made Rs 2500 per month (+/- 10%). So, all it takes to buy Gokulapuram plot then was just 2 month salary. Fast forward to 2017 - GET gets Rs 30-35k per month. What can you buy today for 2 times monthly salary? Even Acharapakkam DTCP plots starts at 6L. 20 times the monthly salary. Contrast this with convenient 0.67 price erosion example of RE King and blind extrapolation of past with out any basis - blatantly misleading.

                Why did I choose GET for benchmarking ? Earnings often index inflation much better than anything. Entry level comparison makes it more of apple to apple comparison and easy to explain the effect of purchasing power.

                Now, one can see how inflated the prices now have become - in 30 years. How many of you think 6L (entry level price for any DTCP plots today) will do 200X as RE King thinks? Please raise your hands.

                I very much sync with what Maveric is saying . Many in my family bought some plots in GST in the mid 80s and sold it for a song during the boom period of 2007-2010 . No brainers and they actually forgot about it until someone told that it is better to sell it now . It was purely luck plus at it was affordable to buy them as plots at that time costed Rs.5000 or so ( twice the monthly earning salary for those time ) . But not everyone in my family could sell as many plots were encroached upon and were forcibly taken away by big builders and they could never even identify their own plots .
                A cousin of mine who bought plots in early 90s is still unable to sell . Not all properties can be sold . Location-Location-Location is very important in RE .
                Unless and until you happen to have your properties in an area that is seeing boom you cannot sell it easily . I still have many in my families who purchased plots and apartments in early 90s but still unable to see as either their plots are not in an area of development in RE and the apartments though being in the Centre of the city lacks parking facility , lift , proper aesthetics , facing noisy road etc but where the simple guidelines value calculation with the UDS itself will fetch them more than a crore but no takers for such apartments .
                So in the end quality and location dictates how easy it is to sell a RE Property and good quality properties in good locations will always be in demand and their rates will not come down drastically and such owners can take pride in holding such properties but for the rest it will be a very big struggle to sell their properties even though they can take pride in telling that their properties are worth crores but they will have no takes for such properties .

                Comment


                • Re : Property Price Trends in Chennai

                  Originally posted by maverick007
                  kubera2016;

                  Most of the people who want others to decide for themselves are indecisive, weak-conviction, do poor diligence, just waiting to hang their responsibility on others 'conveniently' because things are too grey for them and find it hard to take it on themselves. Such mindsets also suffer from 'confirmation bias' - tuning only to information and finding acceptance that makes their 'position' and 'decision' comfortable. If you tell them RE will make CAGR of 20% for the next 20 years, you made their day and probably few weeks too

                  True investors who decide for themselves are an exact opposite, seek contradicting opinions and would like to see the holes in their thesis and welcome 'reason' based criticism. They know, those information is truly helping them perfect their decision.
                  When I make any decision be it stock or RE , the first thing I do is to seek the contrary opinion first ( not the popular ones ) and more the contrary opinion the more easy for me to develop clarity .I know for sure that there is no perfect thing in the world and everything has some flaws/ negativity especially in RE we need to decide which negativity to swallow before we take the plunge and for that the contrary opinion is very useful .

                  Comment


                  • Re : Property Price Trends in Chennai

                    Dear Mav
                    I have lots of respect for you and your knowledge on RE as you are a Vetran.I am a new comer with just few years in this field after retirement and as there is no other business to do I watch very carefully the RE on a regular basis only in Chennai.All I wanted to convey in this forum to the prospective buyers(not investors- I keep away from them) based with facts is do not wait for the prices to fall which is not going to happen and if you are planning to buy for end use be it a flat or a piece of land do it at once.That is the reason i gave a solid example

                    Comment


                    • RE King
                      RE King commented
                      Editing a comment
                      This veteran etc are just about jobless prolific writing on this board. I used to write in atleast 3 different names in this board since 2007 or so and each time someone or other will try to fight against my Bullish view and get my account stopped. I used to have all these freak member names in those accounts. I gave up. I am not a realestate agent, builder or whatever. I know what to do. I write just to inform the world of facts. Ofcourse someone wants to distort it, I cant waste time fighting with them. When they cant prove they will say it was sheer luck and well what can I do about their intelligence to understand brilliance. I leave it.
                      What I wanted to tell you is, dont be fooled by these New Member, Senior Member,etc. Means nothing much about the quality of matter, just about the quantity of posts and joblessness. Full stop.
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