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- For new Buyers and Visitors ( not for seasoned Investors and Well informed Members)
At times Price trend topic tends to go along with Mindset with lot of gyrations.
Coming back to the topic, Builders started adopting Product mix and affordable Pricing model according to the Market dynamics amidst abundant supply and cut throat competition .
Hira adopted premium price model for Upsclae and launching Economical Urbania , Akshaya too started with Uber rich at 10 cr and Afforadbale Today's at 2800
L&T having started with 3600-3750 pricing model for Phase 1 is starting Phase 2 at 5100-5500 ranges
Premium FSI is being sought in all submitted files for full utilization of maximum 3.5 FSI by all builders
KF report on Medavakkam and Pallikaranai which are located in between GST and OMR/ECR with nerve linking is getting absorbed faster by customers through quick sale ( only concern is absence of big Pan India builders except Purva in Windermere Project to quote) .
Increase of FSI beyond 3.5 to 5 mulled by CMDA in CITY due to Metro may bring down cost per sqft and will pull out suburban Investors ( Going to be deadly once this happens in RE ) and create perfect balance between CITY and SUBURBS .
This may repel small & medium builders away from Market due to cut throat competition and sustainability like how it has happened to IT after Y2K and NBFC in late 90s and fall of RE volume builders like Si, KG, RAMS, DEV, ALACRITY, ALSA, CHAITANYA, VASANTH, GOKUL, etc.
RE market is deep devil sea and only muscled Whales will survive by pushing out all small fishes .
Hence investing in established builders project who are financially and technically strong by keeping up Brand Image is a must before burning fingers as we had bitter experience in partly abandoned projects like ALSA in Gandhi Nagar Adyar and ALACRITY in Chetpet
More than price trend ,one must see Sustainabilty trend in the event of such crash in this cut throat competition market .
Established players like L&T,DLF,HIRA,GODREJ,PRESTIGE,SOBHA,PURVA ,AKSHAYA,CEEBROS,AREL to name a few are good picks and MARG,PACIFICA,CASA (PE and tied up ) are best avoidable .
Better enter into long gestation projects running 3-5 years in mid way or nearing for completion rather than plunging into launching date
Opinion is mine and Decision is yoursOriginally Posted by sunr2iI think we should be discussing as in OP about the price trends. Lately the subject has been steered towards one's philosophy. Though philosophy is good this is not right forum for it.
Please post facts on recent price trends and pros & cons of particular areaCommentQuote1Flag
- Originally Posted by trk2012
I think government should impose restrictions on these kind of ultra luxury projects and even stop such projects.
Infact I am not a socialist, one of the investors in suburbs.
Atleast in Bangalore, I am happy that there is equal development of both city and outside city. Of course there are 30-40 malls and hypermarkets in Bangalore's new outside suburbs today in all directions, with all facilities to take care of daily needs.
I am also not a socialist and believe in freedom of enterprise but at same time government should do something on this. NO, NOT BY restricting luxury apartments and 4BHK flats with pools and special gyms - but by encouraging more 1BHK and 1HK apartments espically in CBD. Government can declare by giving special concessions on such projects which have say 20% of apartments as 1BHK apartments (just like our movie theaters are asked to have 10% of tickets as low priced).
Alternatively government can push for 1BHK based apartment projects in the plentiful government owned RE in prime cities...
But all this wont happen unless voting public unites and demand it. Our ruling elite and the media which represent it are not going to yield so soon.CommentQuote0Flag
- Originally Posted by trk2012That's the irony. In Chennai city power cuts are 2 hours, in rest of Tamil Nadu power cuts are most vulgar 16 hours. Its vulgur, in 21st century people are living without government supplied power for 16 hours a day, and its not free power - people pay their bills, even the electricity charges have seen a drastic increase.
So can we say in 4-5 years, dollar millionaires and crorepatis who own property inside "the Chennai city" will live in the moon happily enjoying all luxury of Rs.4-5 crore flats and Rs.10 crore plots. And people in rest of Tamil Nadu where property prices cost a fraction will suffer because these "dollar millionaires of Chennai" who are fastest growing millionaire breed in the world will live in luxury.
There will be a revolution if this impartiality continues, between haves and have nots. It's already happening, lawyers in Coimbatore have taken to streets.
Now come on some bloke here will say Coimbatore people got used to using Gensets & Inverters, They don't care and simply use Gensets & inverters.
How many thousands of workers are getting jobless and not getting diwali bonuses in Coimbatore & Tirupur because of 16 hour power cuts per day. Who will answer them.
Relax my friend, the good news is this is India and we will never have a revolution. because all these kind of "extreme" trends are self correcting..
To put it this way, w.r.to power issue, if the current situation persists, a lot of industries will close down in Coimbatore and elsewhere. The old days of unemployment for the working class will return . And this itself will trigger some industrialisation and correction in high prices.
Not too much should be made into the crorepathis and neo crorepathis of 2012 who are so because of RE. A very average lower middle class man/woman who just bought a plain 2BHK flat in 1970s and 1980s in chennai (then today's CBD was only Chennai and vengaivasal and medavakkam were villages) is technically a crorepathi but it means nothing because one crore today has same money value as 5-10 lakhs in early 1990s.
All that we need is one economic slowdown (domestic) which is already happening and one overseas slowdown (which will happen) that affects IT Industry and we will be back to old days , the late 1990s when RE market was dead and projects were dropped.
Yesterday Times of India was telling how Pallikaranai will become Rs 8K per sqft in 2017 and so will medavakkam in 2017. In 2002 and 2007, the Times did not say how RE prices will be up many fold in next 5 years. So this itself is a indication that 2017 will be very different.
And the difference will be natural and not due to some revolution for sure.CommentQuote0Flag
- Not diverting from topic again. We are discussing latest price trends in Chennai alone. But somewhere job opportunities are needed to be created in Coimbatore, Trichy, Tanjavur etc. To me these other cities represent the true culture of my native and not Chennai.
Coimbatore has a rich history of business people and enterpreneurship, and is a major educational, health care centre. Trichy and Tanjavur are educational centres, get clean cauvery water and are cultural centres. Somewhere we need development of infrastructure, industries in these cities also instead of just focus on Chennai.
This will reduce burden on Chennai also, and not stretch it too much. Just want to add this, in Trichy independent house with your own land will be available for Rs. 50 to 60 lakhs, and good quality cauvery water is also available, but no job opportunity. In Chennai, for same amount only a flat will be available, independent house will cost min Rs.85 lakhs and still desalinated salt water. Is this what we want for future?CommentQuote0Flag
- I am a core Chennai-ite but do agree that development has to spread to other tier 2 cities. But the hard and harsh truth is that is not going to happen in short term. Why?
It is true of all poor/third world nations, development is concentrated in few tier one metros/cities only and tier2 cities lack development. The reason being infrastructure and poor state of public finances. Heritage, culture, history, people are all good, but hard infrastructure is basic requirement for economic development. Even Chennai CBD infrastructure is not so great, but for a population of 4 million , we can give 3.5 marks out of 10. What about other cities? Maybe basic infra is in place, but that is all for current population of 1.5 to 2 million. These cities simply cannot take even half a million more people without breaking down.
By infra i also mean connectivity and logistics - Chennai rocks on same with right location and big harbour, NH connecting to leading states and rail connectivity . So a Hyundai or a Renault can source from smaller cities but cannot set a main factory in tier 2 cities.
Likewise, Chennai has the cosmopolitanism that enables big service sector MNCs (IT cos) to recruit easily. A IT MNC can easily convince a person from NE India or Gujarat or AP to work in Chennai. It will be hard to do same with a company based out of Madurai.
Like someone told - madurai has madurai people, kovai has kovaiites, tiruchy has tiruchi people - but chennai is home to all people from all places in TN plus other south indians too. This is why this city has grown , from 5 lakh population in 1950 to present 75 lakh or so.CommentQuote1Flag
- With Tambaram bye pass road looks like a realty now will it change the fortunes of camp road area.CommentQuote0Flag
- Hi Friends,
I am really glad that this thread is still attracting healthy discussions. I am not writing much nowadays becuase I am finding myself becoming repititive. With so many new members contributing I dont find anything more to add to whats being already said.
I am writing now to share a news with all of you. I have compromised in my search and have stuck a deal balancing my affordability and long term dream of owning a home meeting my lifestyle requirement.
I came across a 2 BHK flat in K.K.Nagar (bordering Ashok Nagar) through an acquintance. It was ready-to-occupy joint-venture project and belonged to land owner.I was able to finalize it for around 6.5k/sqft. They were looking for someone who can close the deal quickly and in white. I am glad it was a win-win situation for both of us. With new launches at 10k/sqft in the area, I feel it was a VFM deal. We have already let it out for 20k/month. Meanwhile I have also booked a premium lifestyle apartment in a high rise project in OMR. It is scheduled to be delivered in 2016-2017.
A brief backstory about my search for new members..
In the year 2009, When I had started this thread, My requirement was for a house in 2014/2015 and me being a risk averse person I wanted to purchase with zero debt. I had decided to start saving and investing back and focussing more on my profession meanwhile looking for good deals. The world economy then was going though a dull phase and the RE market that had peaked in 2008 had already corrected 10-15% and went on to correct further upto 30% in late 2009.We were staring at a global depression and it was expected that governments take into consideration rising fiscal deficit and look at liquidification of assets. What we actually saw was unprecedented, We saw bailouts and QE after QE pushing inflation to the brink and further deepening the crisis in the hope we can tide over it. Noone knows how its all going to end.. Anyways, By 2010-2011, It was evident that in India, we were not looking at depression but at stagflation and possible hyperinflation. Thankfully I was prepared and I had started investing in bullion and making small land investments. my returns from my investments were always in positive. Looking back with the benefit of hindsight, late 2009 seemed to be the best time to buy.
Now fast forward to 2012, Prices all over chennai has recovered to the 2008 levels and in some places new project are being marked up 30-40% over the 2008 peak rates. With the guideline value now revised, It provides us a new baseline to calculate and compare. Suddenly It became irrelevant to argue that the price is inflated when the government value is more or less the market price. With this change in perspective, the unjustifiable price suddenly became legitimate. I couldnt anymore overlook it.
While reviewing my portfolio, It occured to me that I had to have minimum 50-60% or more in Real Estate and Bullion. With the government going in for elections next year, I am anticipating lots of populist measures and huge liquidity in the market pushing inflation higher.My decision is motivated primarily due to the fear of onset of hyperinflation in the market. I have to protect my savings and I had to take a call considering my affordability,professional and personal priorities and limited choice available. I am happy that I have stuck to my affordability and location principle and not compromised on them.
Whether I have profited from my waiting or not, whether my decision is right or wrong. Only Time can tell. My experience has been a roller-coaster ride and my feelings at the end are mixed. Neverthless, It is the best I could have taken in my current situation.No Regrets.
I take this opportunity to thank all friends here for your support and guidance. I hope my experience is of use to everyone reading this thread and helps them take an informed decision. Thank you all very much once again.CommentQuote6Flag
- @nabhishek, Thanks for sharing your awesome story. Looks like things worked out well for you. 6.5K/sq.ft at KK Nagar is one heck of a deal. Good luck.CommentQuote0Flag
- Hyperinflation scenario is real and its impact on RE is inevitable. Lot of smart folks comparing rental yield and other factors to un justify the price. Though they are right in their opinion, they don't get that there are unprecedented level of money printing going on by various govt. Having a hugh population, the govt having a nightmare of maintaining robust job growth and economy. The direction would be more reforms and mainly attracting foreign money with the hope of eventually attracting domestic money to sustain. One has to be realistic when comes to price and get into the deal with the balanced mind.CommentQuote0Flag
- Hyperinflation cannot do much on already inflated asset prices - on relative basis, its impact will be marginal compared to assets that are reasonably priced . So to think that inflation tide will carry all boats with it is wishful thinking - an another way to justify "this time it's different" story. There is no voting on which opinion is smart. To each his own. There are better assets to protect you from hyperinflation and RE (CBD ) is the most expensive one among them.
- Come again?!Originally Posted by maverick007Hyperinflation cannot do much on already inflated asset prices - on relative basis, its impact will be marginal compared to assets that are reasonably priced . So to think that inflation tide will carry all boats with it is wishful thinking - an another way to justify "this time it's different" story. There is no voting on which opinion is smart. To each his own. There are better assets to protect you from hyperinflation and RE (CBD ) is the most expensive one among them.
I would like to illustrate how Hyperinflation DOES have a phenomenal effect no matter whether the current price is high or not.
Lets assume normal inflation is 12% per annum. After 10 years Rs.5000 psft current price asset will cost Rs.15500 psft.
Lets go by one standard definition of Hyperinflation (annual inflation rate of over 50% - could be much much higher if you take real cases from history)
At this rate of inflation, assuming RE keeps up with inflation at least, after 10 years, price will be Rs.288,325 psft.
Are we saying the two are the same, just because current "feeling" of price being too high? Current feeling of "high" price has no bearing on future inflationary trend. When your rupee is crashing 50% every year, the hot RE areas (with limited supply) will even beat inflation numbers by a large margin, becoming literally priceless in rupee terms.
Of course, at some point, other assets (like consumable commodities and even gold and silver) continue to have relevance (gold/silver can be exchanged for essential consumables and will in fact become money as they are universally accepted as money) while RE simply becomes completely illiquid as people literally run out of cash to buy at those astronomical prices. Here I agree.
- Wiseman, welcome back to chennai.CommentQuote0Flag
- Are we saying the two are the same, just because current "feeling" of price being too high?
They are not. I stand corrected. My assumption was the return of higher inflation of 90's and not the hyperinflation (Zimbabwe type) - where the currency has no value. With hyper inflation, we have much bigger problem in hand and the true hedge against hyper inflation is having assets in other currencies than simply having illiquid hard assets in the currency that will be in annihilation due to hyper inflation. Liquid hard assets(precious metals) would reign supreme over the others.
- Originally Posted by maverick007They are not. I stand corrected. My assumption was the return of higher inflation of 90's and not the hyperinflation (Zimbabwe type) - where the currency has no value. With hyper inflation, we have much bigger problem in hand and the true hedge against hyper inflation is having assets in other currencies than simply having illiquid hard assets in the currency that will be in annihilation due to hyper inflation. Liquid hard assets(precious metals) would reign supreme over the others.
I suspected you had high inflation in mind. I still couldn't resits attempting to lay out the difference between high and hyper (as I understand it).
The difference is between facing an angry cat (which can do some damage) to an angry tiger (which can do a whole lot more damage)! :D
- A big debt is going to be a big burdenOriginally Posted by sunr2iHyperinflation scenario is real and its impact on RE is inevitable. Lot of smart folks comparing rental yield and other factors to un justify the price. Though they are right in their opinion, they don't get that there are unprecedented level of money printing going on by various govt. Having a hugh population, the govt having a nightmare of maintaining robust job growth and economy. The direction would be more reforms and mainly attracting foreign money with the hope of eventually attracting domestic money to sustain. One has to be realistic when comes to price and get into the deal with the balanced mind.
We see banks constantly telling us to go in for long term deposits to "lock in" high interest rates. Who are they trying to fool?
A banker knows about as much as you or me where interest rates are going to be 2 years from now. As you have correctly put we are already running unsustainable deficits on both accounts and the Govt seems to have no room to cut spending (just like other Govts all over the world). The entire world (but for a few pockets here and there) seems to have become permanent debt junkies and the threat of serious withdrawal symptoms only keeps them taking more and more of the opium of debt and going beyond the point of no return.
The additional problem is permanent resource scarcity as we go along. An interesting piece by Jeremy Grantham postulates that there are already too many humans on earth to be sustainable. The only reason Malthus was wrong so far was the power of technology to dig out more resources and enable an excessive human population to survive till now. Soon, unless we find other ways to continue to supply our population with food, water and other esentials, there will be global conflict for depleting resources and many millions will die due to various reasons.
Inflation will start rising up in the foreseeable future (except for periods when global economic activity temporarily slows down in recession/depression).
Big debt now or in the future is going to be increasingly hard to repay and rising inflation may make it even harder. The only saving grace could be the increasing price of the asset (RE), which could prevent you from going bankrupt.
The race then (once you have created the high-debt situation) is whether your surplus generation capacity (increasing savings - not salary - which is going to be hit by increasing inflation not to mention taxes as Govt is not going to be able to increase resource generation any other way, as you can see in the US right now) is able to close out the debt ot will it grow big to close you out! :)
The risk occurs when prices of RE temporarily declines and simultaneously one is hit with a reduction or stoppage of income for a length of time. Always better to keep debt low (or zero) and only buy with surplus money in pocket.
My current aim is to only spend the proceeds of my investments, just like it pays to only eat the fruit of the tree rather than the tree itself, since, then you have to start all over again planting another tree (and trying to get a tree up successfully in this increasingly competitie world is so much more difficult and uncertain)!