hi, the market seems to be very volatile, and nearly un-predictable, 2 weeks ago the market was so bearish that it hit october lows now its on a bullish phase breaching through bse 10K mark.... I wonder does this indicate that the markets are up again ?

It is so confusing, it is like looking like at a cloud which disappears with a rain.

Has the market really bottomed down ? So does these emotions affect the property value ? in which way (or) even the job market ?

May be the burnt of the fall may continue deflation then may lead to inflation as expected to happen in US, or we may just be seeing a small resistance, and the worst bottom is yet to be seen.

so how do you think the situation would reflect in the current property market ?
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  • Dear friend,

    BSE just crossing 10,000 mark is like rare summer rains. It may not lost long. The economic fundamentals are still not strong. I fear, the BSE may go down to even to 7000 levels within the next 6 months or so. I wish, this should not happen.

    ks2071746
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  • Originally Posted by ks2071746
    Dear friend,

    BSE just crossing 10,000 mark is like rare summer rains. It may not lost long. The economic fundamentals are still not strong. I fear, the BSE may go down to even to 7000 levels within the next 6 months or so. I wish, this should not happen.

    ks2071746

    KS,

    Noone can predict where stocks will be in next 6 months or so.But one thing is for sure even when stocks are heading towards 10000 BSE realty index is going down continuosly.
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  • Originally Posted by BigBear
    KS,

    Noone can predict where stocks will be in next 6 months or so.But one thing is for sure even when stocks are heading towards 10000 BSE realty index is going down continuosly.


    The realty index is a mere indicator of few companies of which the biggest constituent is DLF with a weightage of 35 %.they are in bad shape as they bought lands in far off places in thousands of acres dreaming to create many 'gurgaons' DLF is 35% of realty index and will not even be 0.035% of the total indian RE mkt.
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  • Dear friend,

    What you said above is true. DLF having bought the land areas in far away places and having planned projects in those far away places, is finding it difficult to sell the projects. Hence now has no other choice but to offer discounts. We cannot expect the same thing to happen with all other RE bigwigs, though they also may reduce the rates but not to the extent what DLF is doing now.

    ks2071746
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  • RE will spiral down

    In my opinion RE will furthter spiral downward, and will not improve even if BSES goes up to 15000 and BSES will not have an significant corelation with the RE market, only a much significant improvement in the IT sector and sufficient confidence building in IT for a period of over 1 year can really bring things to old levels, that is you have to wait for another year after the BSES touches say 20000: This is my personal opinion
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  • Originally Posted by kkkumar
    In my opinion RE will furthter spiral downward, and will not improve even if BSES goes up to 15000 and BSES will not have an significant corelation with the RE market, only a much significant improvement in the IT sector and sufficient confidence building in IT for a period of over 1 year can really bring things to old levels, that is you have to wait for another year after the BSES touches say 20000: This is my personal opinion

    BSES has to rise 10% from its peak level for liquidity to improve in the market till then the RE sector will be stagnant at 10% increase per year from the 1998 level ie. about 60% increase from the 1998 level as inflation in India is on a average 8 to10% per year
    CAN
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  • This week has proved really good for the stock market gaining 100s of points setting the mood for the bull. But the last 30 points increase of the NSE on Friday seems to be with a bit of struggle, so it is all left to the next week and weeks ahead to know whether its just a resistance (or) a complete trend setter, like most of you who have replied I too strongly believe its just a resistance and that RE's full strong reversion will only be attributed by a strong IT sector and powerful employment system. Obama doesn't seem too enthusiastic about India especially IT, his bills on increased taxation on IT outsourcing and reluctance in visa issuance does not end up too favorable to IT sector in India, he may differ in view in other sectors however. Also I dont solely rely on the realty index, because its just performance index of RE companies, not the actual value of the property, the performance of a company may not only be attributed to physical holdings of the company but also to the ,management & policy decisions of the companies...

    So may be RE will remain stagnant for a while even as BSE goes higher and eventually catch up 20000 levels as "kkkumar" has said.

    But if BSE falls to 7000 levels as "ks2071746" said, RE may actually be facing quite a struggle and may be considered as least profitable investment in short term..., unlike stock market RE has a sentimental factor... and also one of man's fundamental requirements "food clothing shelter"(where money is not included) so even if BSE falls I believe there would be a slow fall but never a drop in the RE market.
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  • good description

    well written analysis of what is yet to happen in re.
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  • Dear friend,

    I do not think there may be a collapse of RE business/market in India as what is happening in US etc. There are not many hands changing for the property as in US. It is only 2 parties, the buyer and the bank/institution which has financed the buy. Of course some guys in their younger age, soon after their entry into the job, having opted for a large value loan, under the present downtrend and falling salaries or even lose of job, may find it difficult to manage. If these guys have consulted their parents, their better halves etc. and then gone in for the purchase, they have atleast some means of salvaging, there are many means of managing the situation to come out with less damage/loss. If there is will, there will be a way out. Of course not by those who have gone for a property much beyond their means, AGALAKKAAL VAITHAVARGAL.

    ks2071746
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  • Yes, fundamentals are not strong even though sen crossed 10,000.

    In the coming weeks it will start sliding.

    If there is a hung parliament after election results, it will further slide
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  • Dear friend,

    It is quite true. In case of a hung parliament, it will be a worse horse trading. Who is going to support whom and when, will be a big question mark. This political market, i.e., MPs market will never see any downtrend or collapse, but only uptrend to unimaginable rates.

    ks2071746
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  • Yes, Increasing...

    Yes, it looks Chennai property price increasing now.



    Originally Posted by plusminus
    hi, the market seems to be very volatile, and nearly un-predictable, 2 weeks ago the market was so bearish that it hit october lows now its on a bullish phase breaching through bse 10K mark.... I wonder does this indicate that the markets are up again ?

    It is so confusing, it is like looking like at a cloud which disappears with a rain.

    Has the market really bottomed down ? So does these emotions affect the property value ? in which way (or) even the job market ?

    May be the burnt of the fall may continue deflation then may lead to inflation as expected to happen in US, or we may just be seeing a small resistance, and the worst bottom is yet to be seen.

    so how do you think the situation would reflect in the current property market ?
    CommentQuote
  • Originally Posted by abk
    The realty index is a mere indicator of few companies of which the biggest constituent is DLF with a weightage of 35 %.they are in bad shape as they bought lands in far off places in thousands of acres dreaming to create many 'gurgaons' DLF is 35% of realty index and will not even be 0.035% of the total indian RE mkt.


    Given below the % drop in stock price of major real estate players across India.Most stocksmade their all time high around 2007/08.
    It is not only DLF which was battared by the market but all of them.
    Data clearly shows there is clear downtrend across India irrespective where they hold land.
    Company Alltimehigh Currentprice %drop
    DLF 1215 182.8 84.95473251
    Unitech 534 36 93.25842697
    Sobha 1126 82 92.71758437
    HDIL 1092 87 92.03296703
    Omaxe 585 49 91.62393162
    Parsvnath 583.5 38 93.48757498
    Puravankara 535 43 91.96261682
    Akruti 2359 949 59.77108944
    Orbit 1075 54 94.97674419
    IndiaBulls 850 100 88.23529412
    Brigade 489 35 92.84253579
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  • Well, I guess this week started with a big bang, Nifty falling 125 points. Well the prev. raise we might have seen may have just been a small peak which might have been backed up by the rise of asian stock markets, also any one can reason ?

    However the emotions of asian stock markets today morning (as I write)have been promising, we may well over come the fall yesterday as we might have experienced a resistance at high levels yesterday....

    Any way we can only tell whether the temp. bull phase (at-least to some small extent) has started (or) the prev. weeks were just resistance by seeing emotions through end of this week.

    Any one knows the reason behind successful market mood last 2 weeks (or) the fall of market rates yesterday ?

    Also, several constructors like MARG are releasing apartments at lower rates and giants like Hiranandani have reduced prices over "Garden Palace" while "Upscale" is still upscale constantly increasing in value. The emotions may change with others when there would be a "real budget" of the new government which may bring down cost of construction equipment considerably.Well with the private land owners they may be in a transition phase not knowing for how much to sell vs. the reason to sell. plotted lands may hold price and may bulge slightly to bargain, especially ones which are cheap. So we may keep our fingers crossed and probably wait till the week's end to see if the market reverts back to october lows...
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