Ooops, dont curse me for appearing too fast. Just had a thought and so decided to share it, just the weekend free time banter. No more. I am not going to argue about it.

I have been noticing folks continue to beseige Indian RE using Global euphemisms, talking about Deflation when they themselves dont understand what it is and then Wise talking about return to 60s and 70s. Frankly to me my childhood days were wonderful. I wont mind the 70s. I dont need a cell. I need LIFE to LIVE. So if that is depression or deflation, I hope we go there!

Anyway forget about my reactive banter. Let me come to the original chatter. During 2003 to 2009 salaries have gone up so much. Now what happened to this money. Let me not bother about those 25 somethings of 2003 who saw 20K suddenly and decided to booze it to death. Some of these bought luxury homes thinking they have become rich (not realising what is real worth of their money and surprising Wise is talking about real worth suddenly, something he did not know for all these months I was on this board; maybe he is taking EC101 course somewhere...good for him!).

I want to talk about the host of folks who were aged around 35 to 40 in 2003.

Now most of the better ones among this age group were picking up around 5L to 10L in 2003. I am talking about SW managers and not the TOP ones like me (I was picking a multiple of this in 2003!) nor the government folks. I was picking a multiple of this in 2003! Now these guys have moved from that 7.5L (average of 5 and 10) to a value of about 20 to 25L (average 22.5L).
Now in 6 years let us assume they had a linear growth for simplicity. So their average salary was (22.5+7.5)/2=15L. With 15L, suppose they paid 4L tax, 1L other paycuts, 3L to live, they would have save 7L. Even the violent spenders among them would have saved 5L. Over 6 years they must have save about 5x6 to 7x6 i.e., 30L to 42L. Top it with interests which will make it about 35L to 50L.
Let us assume 2 sets of these folks. Ones that took a loan and bought a property say in the middle year, i.e. 2005-6. They would not have saved this amount but must have spent all this money paying EMIs foolishly to some god damn banker. They have a home which they claim is theirs, but actually belongs to the lending bank!

Take the second type who literally saved this money. They have 35L to 50L in hand. Now if property prices do fall wont these folks come in and buy at the fall? So there is a lot of money swishing in the system, just that greed made prices shoot up too fast and fear is making Wisemen and his bear cartel write here negatively. Both are part of human MISBEHAVIOUR!

So how much can anything fall. The minute the property in 2005-6 let us say bought by one such 40 year old went from say the 30L level then to 80L level in 2008, the one who onl saved cash was sobbing. Now if it falls to even 70L that guy with his 35 to 50L in hand will come cashing in on it! Wont he? Just needs to take a bit more as loan and now this loan will look small given his higher salary!

In other words lots of REAL MONEY has come into the Indian system unlike US where salaries did not go up the way it did in India. While Indian salaries went up almost 5 times in US salaries moved up their normal 5 to 10% CAGR. Now this fact is promptly missed by Wiseman and many of those US RE writers on this forum. They just dont have enough brains to understand it, I suspect!?

Another point that I noticed today was that someone mentioning that Bangalore flats have fallen in prices and that Bangaloreans learn fast.(The frog example shows the brains of the writer mimics the ambhibian!) That is a joke. I have said this a million times before but with deaf years and idiotic brains around I am having to repeat it. The FSI used in BLR is about 3 to 4. So flats in Bangalore in similar areas were relatively 2 to 3 times cheaper than in Chennai almost always. So in Malleswaram even at the peak Flats cost 7K psft. In Mylapore or TNagar they were at 15 to 20Kpsft. The Mantri tower in the heart of Bangalore cost 6crores for 6000sqft but an year + ago in Nungambakkam (I forget the name ... it was Life or something abstract like that!) was costing 5Cr for 2500sqft.

In other words in Chennai the only way to reduce FLAT PRICES is by increasing FSI or turning a blind eye to violators like in BLR. Also the number of floors has to be increased. In Bangalore any silly area with any road size will have 3 floors to 4 floors with Stilt, not 2 floors like in Chennai. So the person telling me that I talk about Land and others about Flats and hence there is a "fight" is incorrect. Land determines the price of a flat. Land is the Least Common Multiple. (Please refer to ABK writing about cost of building materials not falling!) So land price in Mylapore and Malleswaram has to be similar, in Boat Club and Sadashivanagar has to be similar and lo and behold they are very identical. However flat prices are not; in these same area pairs.

Let me just sign off by stating that one should realise that with lots of money waiting on the wings the RE fall is just a correction as far as India is concerned. Now if Indian economy sinks and we have recession and we have 60s and 70s coming and so on...all the gloomy stories are sold then if you buy those stories, then you should not buy a property, just stay in a rented place.

Let me tell you. Whether it is Growth phase or Recession phase, whether it was 70s, 80s, 90s or 2000s. It is ALWAYS CHEAPER TO LIVE IN A RENTED FLAT, however people want to OWN, not live as a slave in someone else's house from where you can be thrown out! Also inflation causes rents to go up and if you have your own home u dont have to pay for the inflation. (BTW I had a relative who continued to live in Malleswaram in a rented flat for years after retirement but then he was lucky to have a son in law who got him a flat to live...or he would be in deep trouble thanks to inflation!...this is in 80s to now!)

Finally a piece of advice to the KIDDOS in their 20s! You havent become any better than the kiddos of 70s and 80s. Honestly your REAL WORTH or REAL INCOME (Ask Wisey to define it for you!) is actually lower. So your dads kiddos; were much better off than you are with same brain levels! Explains why I always show a condescending look at the lakh and oneth Engineer from TN. He is always behind 1lakh guys just in TN and so maybe 30lakhs from India. So he is just an ALSO RAN, not the winner and he does not deserve more than the ALSO RANs of 70s, 80s and 90s.
Remember the Winner takes it all in Soc ialism or in Capitalism, just that who is the Winner is redefined in various situations differently.

Adios.
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  • Originally Posted by Natarajg007
    Ooops, dont curse me for appearing too fast. Just had a thought and so decided to share it, just the weekend free time banter. No more. I am not going to argue about it.
    I have been noticing folks continue to beseige Indian RE using Global euphemisms, talking about Deflation when they themselves dont understand what it is and then Wise talking about return to 60s and 70s. Frankly to me my childhood days were wonderful. I wont mind the 70s. I dont need a cell. I need LIFE to LIVE. So if that is depression or deflation, I hope we go there!
    Anyway forget about my reactive banter. Let me come to the original chatter. During 2003 to 2009 salaries have gone up so much. Now what happened to this money. Let me not bother about those 25 somethings of 2003 who saw 20K suddenly and decided to booze it to death. Some of these bought luxury homes thinking they have become rich (not realising what is real worth of their money and surprising Wise is talking about real worth suddenly, something he did not know for all these months I was on this board; maybe he is taking EC101 course somewhere...good for him!).
    I want to talk about the host of folks who were aged around 35 to 40 in 2003.
    Now most of the better ones among this age group were picking up around 5L to 10L in 2003. I am talking about SW managers and not the TOP ones like me (I was picking a multiple of this in 2003!) nor the government folks. I was picking a multiple of this in 2003! Now these guys have moved from that 7.5L (average of 5 and 10) to a value of about 20 to 25L (average 22.5L).
    Now in 6 years let us assume they had a linear growth for simplicity. So their average salary was (22.5+7.5)/2=15L. With 15L, suppose they paid 4L tax, 1L other paycuts, 3L to live, they would have save 7L. Even the violent spenders among them would have saved 5L. Over 6 years they must have save about 5x6 to 7x6 i.e., 30L to 42L. Top it with interests which will make it about 35L to 50L.
    Let us assume 2 sets of these folks. Ones that took a loan and bought a property say in the middle year, i.e. 2005-6. They would not have saved this amount but must have spent all this money paying EMIs foolishly to some god damn banker. They have a home which they claim is theirs, but actually belongs to the lending bank!
    Take the second type who literally saved this money. They have 35L to 50L in hand. Now if property prices do fall wont these folks come in and buy at the fall? So there is a lot of money swishing in the system, just that greed made prices shoot up too fast and fear is making Wisemen and his bear cartel write here negatively. Both are part of human MISBEHAVIOUR!
    So how much can anything fall. The minute the property in 2005-6 let us say bought by one such 40 year old went from say the 30L level then to 80L level in 2008, the one who onl saved cash was sobbing. Now if it falls to even 70L that guy with his 35 to 50L in hand will come cashing in on it! Wont he? Just needs to take a bit more as loan and now this loan will look small given his higher salary!
    In other words lots of REAL MONEY has come into the Indian system unlike US where salaries did not go up the way it did in India. While Indian salaries went up almost 5 times in US salaries moved up their normal 5 to 10% CAGR. Now this fact is promptly missed by Wiseman and many of those US RE writers on this forum. They just dont have enough brains to understand it, I suspect!?
    Another point that I noticed today was that someone mentioning that Bangalore flats have fallen in prices and that Bangaloreans learn fast.(The frog example shows the brains of the writer mimics the ambhibian!) That is a joke. I have said this a million times before but with deaf years and idiotic brains around I am having to repeat it. The FSI used in BLR is about 3 to 4. So flats in Bangalore in similar areas were relatively 2 to 3 times cheaper than in Chennai almost always. So in Malleswaram even at the peak Flats cost 7K psft. In Mylapore or TNagar they were at 15 to 20Kpsft. The Mantri tower in the heart of Bangalore cost 6crores for 6000sqft but an year + ago in Nungambakkam (I forget the name ... it was Life or something abstract like that!) was costing 5Cr for 2500sqft.
    In other words in Chennai the only way to reduce FLAT PRICES is by increasing FSI or turning a blind eye to violators like in BLR. Also the number of floors has to be increased. In Bangalore any silly area with any road size will have 3 floors to 4 floors with Stilt, not 2 floors like in Chennai. So the person telling me that I talk about Land and others about Flats and hence there is a "fight" is incorrect. Land determines the price of a flat. Land is the Least Common Multiple. (Please refer to ABK writing about cost of building materials not falling!) So land price in Mylapore and Malleswaram has to be similar, in Boat Club and Sadashivanagar has to be similar and lo and behold they are very identical. However flat prices are not; in these same area pairs.
    Let me just sign off by stating that one should realise that with lots of money waiting on the wings the RE fall is just a correction as far as India is concerned. Now if Indian economy sinks and we have recession and we have 60s and 70s coming and so on...all the gloomy stories are sold then if you buy those stories, then you should not buy a property, just stay in a rented place.
    Let me tell you. Whether it is Growth phase or Recession phase, whether it was 70s, 80s, 90s or 2000s. It is ALWAYS CHEAPER TO LIVE IN A RENTED FLAT, however people want to OWN, not live as a slave in someone else's house from where you can be thrown out! Also inflation causes rents to go up and if you have your own home u dont have to pay for the inflation. (BTW I had a relative who continued to live in Malleswaram in a rented flat for years after retirement but then he was lucky to have a son in law who got him a flat to live...or he would be in deep trouble thanks to inflation!...this is in 80s to now!)
    Finally a piece of advice to the KIDDOS in their 20s! You havent become any better than the kiddos of 70s and 80s. Honestly your REAL WORTH or REAL INCOME (Ask Wisey to define it for you!) is actually lower. So your dads kiddos; were much better off than you are with same brain levels! Explains why I always show a condescending look at the lakh and oneth Engineer from TN. He is always behind 1lakh guys just in TN and so maybe 30lakhs from India. So he is just an ALSO RAN, not the winner and he does not deserve more than the ALSO RANs of 70s, 80s and 90s.
    Remember the Winner takes it all in Soc ialism or in Capitalism, just that who is the Winner is redefined in various situations differently.
    Adios.



    Assuming that there is big group holding money in their hands, do you think that they would go ahead and buy a property as soon as the prices start falling. They would definitely wait to see further drop in prices. That is what is happening now. The sellers on the other hand is expecting it to go up. This tug of war is going on in Chennai. In this scenario the sellers are under illusion. Only time will tell who is right. We need not wait too long in another three months we will know the trend in Chennai.

    At one time(couple of years back) the prices of Bangalore for a similar locality was higher than Chennai. What is your explanation for that. Is it not unreasonable to expect the same percentage drop in Chennai . Think before you start blasting others.

    What about the end of flow offoreign investment? India is no more a cheap location -considering the wages as well as the real estate prices? What about trillions of rupees which got evaporated at the stock market? .Political stability after the elections. Twenty parties have to come together to form Government. Don't you think these things will have an effect on the real estate.
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  • Dear friend,

    Your week end writing made an interesting reading.

    ks2071746
    CommentQuote
  • Originally Posted by sundardj
    Assuming that there is big group holding money in their hands, do you think that they would go ahead and buy a property as soon as the prices start falling. They would definitely wait to see further drop in prices. That is what is happening now. The sellers on the other hand is expecting it to go up. This tug of war is going on in Chennai. In this scenario the sellers are under illusion. Only time will tell who is right. We need not wait too long in another three months we will know the trend in Chennai.

    At one time(couple of years back) the prices of Bangalore for a similar locality was higher than Chennai. What is your explanation for that. Is it not unreasonable to expect the same percentage drop in Chennai . Think before you start blasting others.

    What about the end of flow offoreign investment? India is no more a cheap location -considering the wages as well as the real estate prices? What about trillions of rupees which got evaporated at the stock market? .Political stability after the elections. Twenty parties have to come together to form Government. Don't you think these things will have an effect on the real estate.

    Even today price of land in Bangalore has not dropped one bit and is at similar levels as in Chennai. In other words as you said Chennai lagged Bangalore not only in the rise in 2003 but also in the 1994-96 booms. However during bust Chennai was much more resilient. Not to argue further, Chennai prices will fall in 3 months has been the statement for the past 10months since I have been on this board. I assume you are writing your statement in water or in a paper without a date!?
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  • if the fall is delayed then its going to crash
    CommentQuote
  • Originally Posted by vijai5
    if the fall is delayed then its going to crash

    Yaanayin balam ethile; Thumbikayile
    Manithanoda balam ethile; Nambikayile
    (Translates to
    Strength of elephant is its trunk
    Strength of man is in hope)
    BTW that song was sung by a Blind JaiSankar in one film!
    So I dont mind if the blind bears continue to hope!
    PS. I hope the RE really crashes in Chennai. Atleast I wont have a bunch of fellows here hoping RE will crash when it just does not. Also there wont be fella quoting some writeup in some wire! of fall in prices in Valasaravakkam or something of that sort. In reality I dont find one bid that has reduced one bit. Just that useless property are being sold at a supposed discount and many fools are getting trapped buying the Chinese emperor's clothes!
    CommentQuote
  • as per your version even if the prices are stagnant for a couple of years its a win -win situation for the bears
    CommentQuote
  • Notification for all ...

    Originally Posted by Natarajg007
    Yaanayin balam ethile; Thumbikayile
    Manithanoda balam ethile; Nambikayile
    (Translates to
    Strength of elephant is its trunk
    Strength of man is in hope)
    BTW that song was sung by a Blind JaiSankar in one film!
    So I dont mind if the blind bears continue to hope!
    PS. I hope the RE really crashes in Chennai. Atleast I wont have a bunch of fellows here hoping RE will crash when it just does not. Also there wont be fella quoting some writeup in some wire! of fall in prices in Valasaravakkam or something of that sort. In reality I dont find one bid that has reduced one bit. Just that useless property are being sold at a supposed discount and many fools are getting trapped buying the Chinese emperor's clothes!



    Only useful properties in the whole of Chennai - in fact, the whole world! - are specified properties in Saligramam and Urapakkam.

    Rest all are useless and are being used by bears to show price declines. And the only reason they are declining is because they are useless and not owned by the only person in the whole world who knows anything about RE.

    Be warned all you posters. If you want to buy, only buy said properties which will rise forever at 30% CAGR.

    Of course, take a bank guarantee from the said seller that in case the CAGR target is not met, you can make it up by exercising the BG! :D

    cheers
    CommentQuote
  • Originally Posted by Natarajg007
    Even today price of land in Bangalore has not dropped one bit and is at similar levels as in Chennai. In other words as you said Chennai lagged Bangalore not only in the rise in 2003 but also in the 1994-96 booms. However during bust Chennai was much more resilient. Not to argue further, Chennai prices will fall in 3 months has been the statement for the past 10months since I have been on this board. I assume you are writing your statement in water or in a paper without a date!?



    Prices have fallen all across Chennai in the last ten months. It will fall further in the next three months. After three months we will continue to say it would fall. It means it would fall again. This trend would continue for next one year atleast. There may be a couple of exceptions here and there,may be one in Valasaravakkam or Urappakam , I don't know please don't quote that here. That would be one in thousand.
    Overwhelming majority seem to see this and beleive this that's why you don't see any transaction .Also that is the reason the builders either going bankrupt or canelling the project. Don't be under self denial.
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  • Dear friends,

    All the following are true and are happening.
    01) The prices are coming down fast- in some areas-city outskirts.
    02) The prices have down to some what- in some areas- inside city areas
    03) The prices do not go up and remain- in some good areas with in city
    04) These are days any buyer will have to negotiate hard. Those days of Rs. 25 or 50 per sq. ft. like reduction are gone and one should collect the prevailing rates in the locality, do a lot of home work before they start negotiating with the seller, better with the seller and not through brokers to get the lowest possible price. They also should locate other buyers in the project and get details from them on what made them to select the area, the builder and the prices settled by them etc.
    ks2071746
    CommentQuote
  • Originally Posted by vijai5
    as per your version even if the prices are stagnant for a couple of years its a win -win situation for the bears

    Stagnant prices are no victory for bears! It is how markets behave both in upmoves and downmoves. They have to stabilise before a move!
    CommentQuote
  • Originally Posted by ks2071746
    Dear friends,

    All the follwoing are true and are happening.
    01) The prices are coming down fast- in some areas-city outskirts.
    02) The prices have down to some what- in some areas- inside city areas
    03) The prices do not go up and remain- in some good areas with in city
    04) These are days any buyer will have to negotiate hard. Those days of Rs. 25 or 50 per sq. ft. like reduction are gone and one should collect the prevailing rates in the locality, do a lot of home work before they start negotiating with the seller, better with the seller and not through brokers to get the lowest possible price. They also should locate other buyers in the project and get details from them on what made them to select the area, the builder and the prices settled by them etc.
    ks2071746


    KS you bought a home in tambaram area sometime back.I would appreciate if you can tell the diiference in prices now and then.
    pls compare the price locality wise and builderwise too.since yours is a first hand expierience we would get a good idea.also if possible give the land rates too.
    thanx
    CommentQuote
  • This week's banter

    Well I was reading Hindu a couple of days ago and there was an article stating that ISRO freshers get 35K p.m. and that there are 1lakh applications for 300 posts. Infact in 1985 the salary was around 1750p.m. I had an appointment in ISRO VSSC. That I never took it is immaterial but if you see the following comparisons it will help.
    a. Price of flat in 1988 (I dont have 1985 data in print) in West Mambalam and Nungambakkam was around Rs 350psft, in Nanganallur and some other places was Rs 220psft. This is from one Jayalakshmi Planners. To be precise data is as follows
    Nungambakkam 350, WestMambalam - 340 and 320 (different projects), AshokNagar 300, Nanganallur - 240,220, Virugambakkam - 270, 230, 260.
    Now the flat sizes were in 896 to 385 sqfts. In other words they were very small compared to todays 1600sqft etc.
    Coming to the point. TOday price in Nungambakkam is around 10K, WestMambalam - 8K, Virugambakkam -6K AshokNagar - 7K etc. PRices have jumped up by 20 to 30 times approximately.
    b. As I told you before salary of ISRO employee has gone up about 20 times.

    So where is the issue? NONE. However land prices have gone up even more, in many cases around 100 times to 200 times. Ofcourse one should also cost the rental value of flats.

    Having done the above I draw the following conclusions.
    a. RE prices have actually not gone up much. They have just matched the ever growing salary.
    b. Loss of jobs existed always and so a few thousand reported job losses today against unreported losses in 80s dont make much difference to prices.
    c. Even after calculating the rental income, it is easy to show that investment in land is the best option. WHile a flat is useful for living.
    d. Expecting steep downfalls in prices like what the SILLY BEAR CARTEL expects is myth. That is a TRADING CALL and not an INVESTMENT CALL.
    You will be a fool to follow that, since WHICH OF THESE GREAT BEARS PREDICTED THE SUPER RISE IN RE PRICES IN 2004. Ones that cant predict upmove cannot predict downmove. ALL THEY ARE LAMENTING IS ABOUT SOUR GRAPES. So whether it is Wiseman's SOUR GRAPES or Sethugm's SOUR GRAPES does not matter.
    e. Selling a property is apt when YOU NEED TO, not because of FEAR.You are a fool to sell property out of fear, as much as you were a fool to buy property out of fear of a rise as in 2006!
    f. Prices correcting 20% today matters VERY LITTLE after 20 years. All you need to plan is whether you can pay the amount either directly or by loan over the period of time. So if you have WHEREWITHAL buy property. If you dont then DONT BUY IRRESPECTIVE OF THE TIME.
    In summary, try to buy property if you
    a. Need it
    b. You have means to buy it
    c. If the right property comes your way
    Sell property when
    a. You need money desperately
    b. When you want to switch properties

    Never try to time the market. In RE your getting in (buying) and getting out (selling) is a labourious process. You cant TRADE RE unless you are one of those Broker/Builder types.

    Finally there is an advt about a L&T project in Siruseri and it costs 3600psft. Think of it. You want to buy a flat in another place beyond Chennai but will expect prices to crash in proper Chennai! IT JUST WONT HAPPEN. Just that weak hands will sell out in frustration and strong hands who talk as bears will buy it. Once prices move up again these same strong hands will write BULL stories and try to sell out. This is what the NRIs did in 2006-7 but many were trapped because THEY SOLD TOO FAST. So they want a collapse of the market!

    Finally the price I gave in Palavakkam of 6700psft for a 8 year old flat holds good. I have land here and given this price will charge (6700-700(old building price))*1.5=9000psft atleast. Now someone will tell me that price in Adayar is only Rs 2cr per ground. The JOKE IS THERE IS NO CLEAN PROPERTY TO BUY IN ADAYAR AT 2CR PER GROUND except in the DREAMS OF THE BEARS IN THIS FORUM!
    CommentQuote
  • Originally Posted by abk
    KS you bought a home in tambaram area sometime back.I would appreciate if you can tell the diiference in prices now and then.
    pls compare the price locality wise and builderwise too.since yours is a first hand expierience we would get a good idea.also if possible give the land rates too.
    thanx

    Abk, all data I give are first hand experiences. So do many on this board. Just that some bears pick up articles from nowhere and try to use that as the basis.
    In reality I havent been able to find one depressed price in Chennai or Bangalore. I will love to see such a deal as it will be worth buying. The last I saw any depressed deal was in 2000-2002. After that it has been a one way ticket to moon.
    Also job losses are too small as a percentage as on date and I dont think they matter. Just that they get reported nowadays compared to what was the case 20 years ago.
    CommentQuote
  • Originally Posted by Natarajg007
    Abk, all data I give are first hand experiences. So do many on this board. Just that some bears pick up articles from nowhere and try to use that as the basis.
    In reality I havent been able to find one depressed price in Chennai or Bangalore. I will love to see such a deal as it will be worth buying. The last I saw any depressed deal was in 2000-2002. After that it has been a one way ticket to moon.
    Also job losses are too small as a percentage as on date and I dont think they matter. Just that they get reported nowadays compared to what was the case 20 years ago.


    natraj,I have not come across any big discounts myself in chennai proper
    and have not seen properties for sale in huge numbers in these areas.
    I am also waiting to buy a good property for my relative and have seen
    many but the ones we liked are not coming at a discount.
    there are many like me in the aisle waiting for a good buy but will eventually will have to buy sooner than later.
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  • Your last line is to be highlighted. You need to buy sooner than later. Well you might wish to take the advice from Wiseman. He might suggest something cheap or he might as well show his true colours.
    CommentQuote