10 reasons why RE price will not fall

1.India has a booming job market where there is no layoffs and everyone is getting 100% hike in salaries.

2.Prices are very low and anyone can afford to buy.

3.Huge amount of easy credit is available where banks are ready to give 110% of the property value at very low interest of 1%.

4.Transactions are very transparent and brokers guide buyers to get the best deal and they will not be cheated.

5.Indian politicians are the best in the world and they have created world class infrastructure.

6.Stock market is booming and touching new highs daily.

7.RE gives CAGR of 100% for next 100 years.

8.There is huge shortage of land and no new land available to build houses.

9.RE is very liquid asset and can be sold the next day you like.

10.You get good rental income.(About 10% yearly rental yield).

Just thought of helping bulls with some reasons why RE price will not fall as they are running out of ideas.
Read more
Reply
26 Replies
Sort by :Filter by :
  • Originally Posted by BigBear
    10 reasons why RE price will not fall

    1.India has a booming job market where there is no layoffs and everyone is getting 100% hike in salaries.

    2.Prices are very low and anyone can afford to buy.

    3.Huge amount of easy credit is available where banks are ready to give 110% of the property value at very low interest of 1%.

    4.Transactions are very transparent and brokers guide buyers to get the best deal and they will not be cheated.

    5.Indian politicians are the best in the world and they have created world class infrastructure.

    6.Stock market is booming and touching new highs daily.

    7.RE gives CAGR of 100% for next 100 years.

    8.There is huge shortage of land and no new land available to build houses.

    9.RE is very liquid asset and can be sold the next day you like.

    10.You get good rental income.(About 10% yearly rental yield).

    Just thought of helping bulls with some reasons why RE price will not fall as they are running out of ideas.

    Bulls have more brains than BigBear!
    CommentQuote
  • Originally Posted by Natarajg007
    Bulls have more brains than BigBear!



    Well I agree. One doesn't need brain to state the facts. Ofcourse needs lot of brain to manipulate the facts to make believe.
    CommentQuote
  • Maybe in 2007 :)

    Originally Posted by Natarajg007
    Bulls have more brains than BigBear!



    Nats,

    You were saying you are going away for ever and rolling out buckets of croc tears about how the bears are beating the hell out of bulls and getting all the sympathy from the general public?

    What happened? Back so soon? :D So was all that lamenting only fake like you?

    Anyway, till 2007 the brains seemed to be there when bulls made gains in a credit-fueled bull market. After all, as the old saying goes, any fool can make money in a rising market buying any asset. Its only the guys making money in a bear market who have the brains. And to make money in a bear market, you need to be a bear. So, the brains seem to be on the side of the bears around now! :D

    cheers
    CommentQuote
  • Dear friends,

    It is a plain truth that the prices are falling every where , except gingely oil (NALLENNAI). People believe, the RE will fall further in the time to come as also they fear about job losses, lower salaries and hence do not want to commit on long term invest like RE. This phase may continue for atleast another 1 to 2 years time, after which, we can expect the recovery cycle to start, may be in a slow phase to pick up fast momentum over the next couple of years. There is a clear shift in the RE invest age group, from 23 to 28 years moving to 40+ years in the present tough times. The fast pick up can be seen only when the young 23 to 28 years group comes back to RE invest.

    ks2071746
    CommentQuote
  • Originally Posted by Natarajg007
    Bulls have more brains than BigBear!

    Nothing sedates rationality like large doses of effortless money" - Warren Buffett
    CommentQuote
  • That was really good!!!

    Originally Posted by BigBear
    Nothing sedates rationality like large doses of effortless money" - Warren Buffett


    That was really good!!! Will add it to my portfolio :D

    cheers
    CommentQuote
  • There are 100 reasons why RE prices are falling
    CommentQuote
  • Prices will start to rise

    Though I don't agree with BigBear, I agree with the title.

    The crises in US has made me more bullish then ever before about India and China. What we are seeing is global readjustment and not global recession. The recession is only confined to western hemisphere and Japan. Domestic economy in India and China are still doing well. Both the countries has shattered records in respective domestic car sales since Jan 2009. Another contrarion indicator is that Stock Analysts and Media have become more bearish about India and Asia, which means the bull market which began in India And China realestate and stocks in 2003-04 is still on.

    Expect the US dollar to lose reserve currency status and become less valuable in next 5 years. There will sudden flight of capital to Asia, US dollar will collapse in hours like lehman brothers.

    Don't bother about exporters in India and China losing jobs like in IT. Domestic sector including REAL ESTATE will rock in Chindia even if exporters become weak.

    Expect Reliance Industries to become more valuable company then GE (already if combined Reliance is more valuable then GE). Bull market is on.
    CommentQuote
  • Originally Posted by wiseman
    Nats,

    You were saying you are going away for ever and rolling out buckets of croc tears about how the bears are beating the hell out of bulls and getting all the sympathy from the general public?

    What happened? Back so soon? :D So was all that lamenting only fake like you?

    Anyway, till 2007 the brains seemed to be there when bulls made gains in a credit-fueled bull market. After all, as the old saying goes, any fool can make money in a rising market buying any asset. Its only the guys making money in a bear market who have the brains. And to make money in a bear market, you need to be a bear. So, the brains seem to be on the side of the bears around now! :D

    cheers

    Actually I wanted to save my time arguing with an idiot..(you!). No more.
    Incidentally I am looking to buy RE, land anywhere in the city where it has crashed genuinely (not like RK salai joke in a slum!). I dont seem to be finding one piece for sale that is worth buying and is gone down in price by even 5%.
    PS. I dont buy in Slums. Wiseman operates there! LOL!
    CommentQuote
  • Originally Posted by wiseman
    Nats,

    You were saying you are going away for ever and rolling out buckets of croc tears about how the bears are beating the hell out of bulls and getting all the sympathy from the general public?

    What happened? Back so soon? :D So was all that lamenting only fake like you?

    Anyway, till 2007 the brains seemed to be there when bulls made gains in a credit-fueled bull market. After all, as the old saying goes, any fool can make money in a rising market buying any asset. Its only the guys making money in a bear market who have the brains. And to make money in a bear market, you need to be a bear. So, the brains seem to be on the side of the bears around now! :D

    cheers

    Wiseman, I have to tell you something plain. The mod of this board, whoever he is, has actually used my suggestion and has made a lovebird of my id's impersonator. In other words the mod is willing to listen to sense and values my writing here.
    The value I have here is not from Chamchas as I know not anyone here in real life. Can you claim the same about yourself! I have a moral obligation to write here and I do when time permits.
    Just try to find out if you are worth anything here!
    CommentQuote
  • Originally Posted by contra
    Though I don't agree with BigBear, I agree with the title.

    The crises in US has made me more bullish then ever before about India and China. What we are seeing is global readjustment and not global recession. The recession is only confined to western hemisphere and Japan. Domestic economy in India and China are still doing well. Both the countries has shattered records in respective domestic car sales since Jan 2009. Another contrarion indicator is that Stock Analysts and Media have become more bearish about India and Asia, which means the bull market which began in India And China realestate and stocks in 2003-04 is still on.

    Expect the US dollar to lose reserve currency status and become less valuable in next 5 years. There will sudden flight of capital to Asia, US dollar will collapse in hours like lehman brothers.

    Don't bother about exporters in India and China losing jobs like in IT. Domestic sector including REAL ESTATE will rock in Chindia even if exporters become weak.

    Expect Reliance Industries to become more valuable company then GE (already if combined Reliance is more valuable then GE). Bull market is on.

    China and India needs to do a lot to catch up with western world.They only account of 8% of world GDP whereas US and Japan only accounts for 34% of world GDP.China is heavily dependent on US exports and does not have a strong domestic consumption.

    Some 50% of China's GDP comes from investment, which has a huge multiplier effect on GDP. In the past, that kind of growth was sustained by high demand from the US and other developed countries.It is very unlikely demand will pick up from US in near future.Already there are talks of china growth slowing to 4-5% next year as compared to more than 12% few years back.In terms of household income and the small asset base, China is very poor - in some ways, poorer than India. China's consumption-to-GDP ratio is lower than India. Savings rate of households are also not high in China.

    As per India is concerned economy is in shambles as compared to China.We have fiscal deficit as close to 12%, Industrial growth is faltering,NPAs of banks rising,foreign exchange reserves are depleting and the rupee is depreciating.So dont think only exporters are affected domestic sectors like infrastructure,aviation,commercial vehicles,retail are affected drasticially.Even though car sales is increasing commercial vehicle sales is falling of the cliff and you know which is good pointer to economy out of these two.
    CommentQuote
  • Originally Posted by BigBear
    China and India needs to do a lot to catch up with western world.They only account of 8% of world GDP whereas US and Japan only accounts for 34% of world GDP.China is heavily dependent on US exports and does not have a strong domestic consumption.

    Some 50% of China's GDP comes from investment, which has a huge multiplier effect on GDP. In the past, that kind of growth was sustained by high demand from the US and other developed countries.It is very unlikely demand will pick up from US in near future.Already there are talks of china growth slowing to 4-5% next year as compared to more than 12% few years back.In terms of household income and the small asset base, China is very poor - in some ways, poorer than India. China's consumption-to-GDP ratio is lower than India. Savings rate of households are also not high in China.

    As per India is concerned economy is in shambles as compared to China.We have fiscal deficit as close to 12%, Industrial growth is faltering,NPAs of banks rising,foreign exchange reserves are depleting and the rupee is depreciating.So dont think only exporters are affected domestic sectors like infrastructure,aviation,commercial vehicles,retail are affected drasticially.Even though car sales is increasing commercial vehicle sales is falling of the cliff and you know which is good pointer to economy out of these two.

    Given below RBI governor's view regading why India got affected by the financial crisis

    The first point is about India's remarkably rapid trade integration with the world economy over the last decade. In terms of globalisation as measured by two-way trade, India's merchandise exports plus imports as a proportion of GDP increased from 21.2% in FY98 to 34.7% in FY08.

    Secondly, India's financial integration with the rest of the world has been equally deep. The ratio of total external transactions (gross current account flows plus gross capital flows) to GDP had more than doubled from 46.8% in FY98 to 117.4% in FY08.

    Further, Mr. Subbarao went on to expound on how the crisis has spread to India via three channels: the financial channel, the real channel and the confidence channel.


    The Financial Channel: This includes India’s equity market, money market, forex market and credit market all of whom came under pressure due to various factors. Corporates began turning to the domestic banking sector for their borrowing needs because external sources suddenly dried up due to the global liquidity squeeze. They also resorted to withdrawing their investments from local money market mutual funds, which caused abnormal redemption pressure over there. Thus were hit the credit and money markets. Further global deleveraging induced reversal of the capital flows, along with conversion of locally raised funds to meet overseas obligations by corporates caused the depreciation of the rupee. RBI’s intervention to buy rupees in the forex market to stem the depreciation of the rupee further caused an inadvertent tightening of liquidity.

    The Real Channel: The biggest factor here is the collapse of the exports due to a sudden slump in demand from places like the US, Europe and the Middle East (these together contribute towards 75% of India’s goods and services trade). Along with manufactured goods, exports of services like IT and ITES too have taken a hit due to its major user industries being in the doldrums. Thus, the damage to India’s export oriented industries has caused some disruption in the real economy.
    The Confidence Channel: The failure of Lehman Brothers around September 2008, followed by a string of other large banks threatening to go down under, caused a major crisis of confidence around the world, including India. The subsequent risk aversion intensified the effects of the already tight liquidity situation due to the cautious lending attitude it caused amongst Indian banks.
    CommentQuote
  • As someone else said ...

    Originally Posted by Natarajg007
    Wiseman, I have to tell you something plain. The mod of this board, whoever he is, has actually used my suggestion and has made a lovebird of my id's impersonator. In other words the mod is willing to listen to sense and values my writing here.
    The value I have here is not from Chamchas as I know not anyone here in real life. Can you claim the same about yourself! I have a moral obligation to write here and I do when time permits.
    Just try to find out if you are worth anything here!



    Nats,

    Someone said "trust, but verify". Before you shoot off your mouth about others based on silly assumptions, verify. How exactly do you say I know someone on this forum? Any evidence that will be news to me?

    You sound sillier by the day. Say something useful or just read what others say and keep fingers off keyboard.

    cheers
    CommentQuote
  • Looks like you are disappearing day by day. Is it because as per your own logic if Nifty comes down RE has to fall, so on the converse as Nifty is shooting up RE should shoot up? So much for your crazy knowledge of markets and RE.
    Now it looks bears are disappearing from this board. Many seem to be expecting a shoot up. Siruseri flats for 4200 psft means I should sell land in Saligramam for 15k psft! If that sound ridiculous then if you sold your Mylapore slum land at 65L per ground how smart were you?
    WIseman I am counting your days on this board. Either you gonna convert into a bull or you going to slyly disappear as the RE market moves up. So you failed in your attempt to make weak hands sell out? What a shame!
    CommentQuote
  • Originally Posted by contra
    Though I don't agree with BigBear, I agree with the title.

    The crises in US has made me more bullish then ever before about India and China. What we are seeing is global readjustment and not global recession. The recession is only confined to western hemisphere and Japan. Domestic economy in India and China are still doing well. Both the countries has shattered records in respective domestic car sales since Jan 2009. Another contrarion indicator is that Stock Analysts and Media have become more bearish about India and Asia, which means the bull market which began in India And China realestate and stocks in 2003-04 is still on.

    Expect the US dollar to lose reserve currency status and become less valuable in next 5 years. There will sudden flight of capital to Asia, US dollar will collapse in hours like lehman brothers.

    Don't bother about exporters in India and China losing jobs like in IT. Domestic sector including REAL ESTATE will rock in Chindia even if exporters become weak.

    Expect Reliance Industries to become more valuable company then GE (already if combined Reliance is more valuable then GE). Bull market is on.



    I am sorry to disappoint you but if dollar goes down, the first country to feel the pinch will be China...no more cheap exports and all their 1+ trillion $ bonds vanish. Hope you know what you are talking about
    CommentQuote