How do the bears write on this board!
I AM A BEAR SO I EXPECT PRICE OF RE TO FALL.
IF IT DID NOT FALL LAST YEAR, IT WILL FALL THIS YEAR.
IF IT DID NOT FALL THIS YEAR, IT HAS TO FALL NEXT YEAR.

If RE prices dont fall then it will fall.
If someone said RE prices have fallen then it will fall more.

DONT BUY RE BECAUSE PRICES WILL FALL.
For how long will it fall? It will fall until eternity.

Okey Dont have time to add more of bear cries. I will let our bears continue with this lamenting and make the board enjoyable. After all bears have to cry and cry and cry a million times and hope prices will fall. So give them a chance to cry on this board since in real life RE is just not falling in Chennai or Bangalore.
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  • Originally Posted by contra
    Hi,

    I have just started posting in this forum even tough I was following up since a few months. I see that there are a lot of people in this forum who believe that RE prices will fall. Even when I discuss with friends and relatives they say RE prices will fall or is falling, the same people who wanted to buy like mad in 2006 by taking huge loans.

    The truth is RE prices will not fall in ASIA. Even Dr.Marc Faber ( The original DR.Doom) says that regional real estate is ASIA like Vietnam, India, China is the world's greatest asset class.

    So my friend including Natraj don't waste your time by buying long into US shares. US dollar will collapse in next 5 years. You are wasting your time in US.

    Continue to invest in India Real Estate and India Stocks. Also try to invest some amount in Chinese H shares in Hong Kong.

    World capital started moving to ASIA since 2004. Americans have become insecure and that is why suddenly the US dollar has risen. This is temporary, given the huge debt which no country ever had, US can't do anything they have no power anymore. Soon US dollar will start declining (It has already started declining 2 weeks back), see BSE index has crossed 10K.

    Buy INDIA real estate, stocks (domestic companies like Reliance, Bharti and no exporters like Infy because US dependent companies will decline enormously). Buy DLF shares and don't worry about investing in INDIA. It is only US which will suffer which they deserve.


    So, why is the world dragging along when US RE is suffering ?

    Americans can't raise their currency as they wish.

    You are underestimating US. Get your facts right.
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  • Originally Posted by sundardj
    Apart from your predeiction, why do you say USA deserve to suffer and India deserve to prosper? Can you elaborate.


    Because they manipulated. US dollar was and is the reserve currency of the world which means for the same work or without much hard work they can create many times more wealth then Asians. Offcourse all this is paper wealth & not backed by solid gold. Still given US dollar is reserve currency they can buy into a small country like malaysia, indonesia and then suddenly sell all real estate holdings, shares etc crashing and bringing hardships to local people.

    The wall street manipulation crashed Japanese real estate in 1990, wall street invested heavily into Japanese real estate & stocks and raised the yen during 1980s. Suddenly at the turn of decade in 1990 overnight wall street sold all real estate, stock holdings in Japan crashing the yen. Japanese such polite & hard working people have suffered hardships. The hard working Japanese still bounced back creating global brands like Toyota, Honda etc.

    The wall street created the asian financial crises in 1997, wall street led by fraudster george soros invested heavily in south east asia raised local real estate and then suddenly sold everything fooling local people into buying. Real estate crashed in south east asia by 50-60% particularly Indonesia bringing hardship to local people. If you remember even in Mumbai real estate prices crashed in 1997 by 50% after raising between 1991-96 after FIIs pulled out money suddenly.

    Now the real estate in India has raisen since 2003 by many times. It was the real estate boom which was one of the important drivers for Indian Economy since 2003. Hope wall street & private equity funds have not cooked this up too.

    If the US dollar loses reserve currency status and trade between asians & friendly countries increases. US manipulation can be forgotton.

    Some may argue that it was US consumer who has feeded us all by buying the goods & services of asians from saudi arabia to Japan. What if asians started buying & selling among themselves. They will still have more resources at lower price and can still relax on the beach and earn even higher incomes right here in Asia. Don't you think this should drive up real estate prices. It may sound very idealistic but many are agreeing that domestic consumption in asia cannot be underestimated. Would anyone have believed you if you purchased 4 acres of land in far away velachary in year 2000 for a few lakhs?
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  • I am not sure why many on this board are so hardup on US. If anything happens then US. If somebody makes 10 rupees check it in US and so on.
    Come on guys mature. We are in India and we dont need US for everything.
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  • Originally Posted by contra
    Because they manipulated. US dollar was and is the reserve currency of the world which means for the same work or without much hard work they can create many times more wealth then Asians. Offcourse all this is paper wealth & not backed by solid gold. Still given US dollar is reserve currency they can buy into a small country like malaysia, indonesia and then suddenly sell all real estate holdings, shares etc crashing and bringing hardships to local people.

    The wall street manipulation crashed Japanese real estate in 1990, wall street invested heavily into Japanese real estate & stocks and raised the yen during 1980s. Suddenly at the turn of decade in 1990 overnight wall street sold all real estate, stock holdings in Japan crashing the yen. Japanese such polite & hard working people have suffered hardships. The hard working Japanese still bounced back creating global brands like Toyota, Honda etc.

    The wall street created the asian financial crises in 1997, wall street led by fraudster george soros invested heavily in south east asia raised local real estate and then suddenly sold everything fooling local people into buying. Real estate crashed in south east asia by 50-60% particularly Indonesia bringing hardship to local people. If you remember even in Mumbai real estate prices crashed in 1997 by 50% after raising between 1991-96 after FIIs pulled out money suddenly.

    Now the real estate in India has raisen since 2003 by many times. It was the real estate boom which was one of the important drivers for Indian Economy since 2003. Hope wall street & private equity funds have not cooked this up too.

    If the US dollar loses reserve currency status and trade between asians & friendly countries increases. US manipulation can be forgotton.

    Some may argue that it was US consumer who has feeded us all by buying the goods & services of asians from saudi arabia to Japan. What if asians started buying & selling among themselves. They will still have more resources at lower price and can still relax on the beach and earn even higher incomes right here in Asia. Don't you think this should drive up real estate prices. It may sound very idealistic but many are agreeing that domestic consumption in asia cannot be underestimated. Would anyone have believed you if you purchased 4 acres of land in far away velachary in year 2000 for a few lakhs?


    Dear friend,

    nice posting to read.

    ks2071746
    CommentQuote
  • Originally Posted by contra
    Because they manipulated. US dollar was and is the reserve currency of the world which means for the same work or without much hard work they can create many times more wealth then Asians. Offcourse all this is paper wealth & not backed by solid gold. Still given US dollar is reserve currency they can buy into a small country like malaysia, indonesia and then suddenly sell all real estate holdings, shares etc crashing and bringing hardships to local people.

    The wall street manipulation crashed Japanese real estate in 1990, wall street invested heavily into Japanese real estate & stocks and raised the yen during 1980s. Suddenly at the turn of decade in 1990 overnight wall street sold all real estate, stock holdings in Japan crashing the yen. Japanese such polite & hard working people have suffered hardships. The hard working Japanese still bounced back creating global brands like Toyota, Honda etc.

    The wall street created the asian financial crises in 1997, wall street led by fraudster george soros invested heavily in south east asia raised local real estate and then suddenly sold everything fooling local people into buying. Real estate crashed in south east asia by 50-60% particularly Indonesia bringing hardship to local people. If you remember even in Mumbai real estate prices crashed in 1997 by 50% after raising between 1991-96 after FIIs pulled out money suddenly.

    Now the real estate in India has raisen since 2003 by many times. It was the real estate boom which was one of the important drivers for Indian Economy since 2003. Hope wall street & private equity funds have not cooked this up too.

    If the US dollar loses reserve currency status and trade between asians & friendly countries increases. US manipulation can be forgotton.

    Some may argue that it was US consumer who has feeded us all by buying the goods & services of asians from saudi arabia to Japan. What if asians started buying & selling among themselves. They will still have more resources at lower price and can still relax on the beach and earn even higher incomes right here in Asia. Don't you think this should drive up real estate prices. It may sound very idealistic but many are agreeing that domestic consumption in asia cannot be underestimated. Would anyone have believed you if you purchased 4 acres of land in far away velachary in year 2000 for a few lakhs?


    Contra,

    Very well written.You have rightly said from where crisis of global economies are fundamentally rooted.

    "paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value, zero".

    Looking back at history, "Fiat" money has always resulted in collapse of the country's currency if not managed properly by the government.

    U.S. seems to have goofed up big time.Federal reserve had been just extended credit to the people by printing more dollars since Nixon's period. U.S. today has currency but not money.

    U.S. has to do something phenomenal and revolutionizing to get back the confidence of other countries in its dollar.Looks like they are abandoning all that they have done till now and going after promoting alternative fuel,whatever.

    China is in talks to engage in currency swapping with central banks of other asian countries and preparing yuan for a greater role.Will India adopt yuan?

    It seems most likely that dollar will be supported by all countries to prevail.Pushing the dollar out would mean currency like euro,yuan,yen,rupee etc will raise in value which would affect adversely the trade/export of the country.

    Every Indian should read the following link to understand what really means to handover a 100 rupee note at a grocery store..what gives the piece of paper its worth?

    http://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/BS_CurrencyFAQView.aspx?Id=39

    India is doing relatively better because RBI has and are doing a good job in regulating and investing a proportion of currency it prints in solid gold and maintains the gap of additional credit/debt extended to public/banks and what they hope to gain back from the tax and economic growth periodically.

    Having said that, We arent fully decoupled from what happens to U.S. after 90's India also started buying debt ridden overleveraged dollars(reserve curreny) in huge amounts and started printing its equivalent currency and circulating in the market.That is backing against dollars, instead of solid asset.

    If dollar goes down, it will surely have huge implications on India.

    Whether its a threat or an opportunity depends on how the government handles the initial hiccups and whether they have what it takes to come out stronger.

    With the global community recognizing india's economic stability and capability provides great opportunity and position to lead and contribute to the economic reforms around the world.

    Hope the future government opts for a stronger rupee and takes proper steps to confidence building measures to revive domestic consumption.I want to see India a super power soon and regain all the richness that reflects in our culture in true sense of living.
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  • Dear friend,

    No doubt, every one of us wish India should bcome super power soon. But it is not easy and it is better said than done. Do you feel our politicians will ever allow India to become a super power with their deeds, thinking and criminal background? Or do you feel the more powerful bueracrats will allow it to happen? Whom do you think are holding Rs. 75 lakhs crores of equivalent foreign curreny in Swiss Banks? May be by less than 1,00,000 individuals which may include industrialists/business men/traders/agents/brokers/senior officials of public sector and private sector as well in addition ?

    I also wish and pray that India should prosper with its people becoming self sufficient with the basic needs of life.

    ks2071746
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  • Originally Posted by contra
    Because they manipulated. US dollar was and is the reserve currency of the world which means for the same work or without much hard work they can create many times more wealth then Asians. Offcourse all this is paper wealth & not backed by solid gold. Still given US dollar is reserve currency they can buy into a small country like malaysia, indonesia and then suddenly sell all real estate holdings, shares etc crashing and bringing hardships to local people.

    The wall street manipulation crashed Japanese real estate in 1990, wall street invested heavily into Japanese real estate & stocks and raised the yen during 1980s. Suddenly at the turn of decade in 1990 overnight wall street sold all real estate, stock holdings in Japan crashing the yen. Japanese such polite & hard working people have suffered hardships. The hard working Japanese still bounced back creating global brands like Toyota, Honda etc.

    The wall street created the asian financial crises in 1997, wall street led by fraudster george soros invested heavily in south east asia raised local real estate and then suddenly sold everything fooling local people into buying. Real estate crashed in south east asia by 50-60% particularly Indonesia bringing hardship to local people. If you remember even in Mumbai real estate prices crashed in 1997 by 50% after raising between 1991-96 after FIIs pulled out money suddenly.

    Now the real estate in India has raisen since 2003 by many times. It was the real estate boom which was one of the important drivers for Indian Economy since 2003. Hope wall street & private equity funds have not cooked this up too.

    If the US dollar loses reserve currency status and trade between asians & friendly countries increases. US manipulation can be forgotton.

    Some may argue that it was US consumer who has feeded us all by buying the goods & services of asians from saudi arabia to Japan. What if asians started buying & selling among themselves. They will still have more resources at lower price and can still relax on the beach and earn even higher incomes right here in Asia. Don't you think this should drive up real estate prices. It may sound very idealistic but many are agreeing that domestic consumption in asia cannot be underestimated. Would anyone have believed you if you purchased 4 acres of land in far away velachary in year 2000 for a few lakhs?


    Contra,

    Japanese bubble was caused beacuse of Japanese bank deregulation.When the economy was booming in the late 1980s, they over-lent. When the bubble ended, these loans became a huge mountain of bad debt similar to what happened in US recently and not due to wallstreet.Still you can see zoombie banks in Japaneven now.

    For Asian crisis you cannot blame America only as these Asian countries did not follow proper monetary and fiscal measures which led to huge asset bubble in stock and realestate.All the asset bubbles have one thing in common that is there is increase in capital investment but no increase in productivity.

    Moreover if FIIs are pumping money why are the local people follow them blindly.Its only the greed to make quick money which results in wide spread wealth destruction.
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  • Originally Posted by BigBear
    Contra,

    Japanese bubble was caused beacuse of Japanese bank deregulation.When the economy was booming in the late 1980s, they over-lent. When the bubble ended, these loans became a huge mountain of bad debt similar to what happened in US recently and not due to wallstreet.Still you can see zoombie banks in Japaneven now.

    For Asian crisis you cannot blame America only as these Asian countries did not follow proper monetary and fiscal measures which led to huge asset bubble in stock and realestate.All the asset bubbles have one thing in common that is there is increase in capital investment but no increase in productivity.

    Moreover if FIIs are pumping money why are the local people follow them blindly.Its only the greed to make quick money which results in wide spread wealth destruction.


    For Japanese banks to overlend they must have got liquidity from somewhere, who loaded them with so much capital that they were literally tempted to overlend? After they lent and increased supply, who suddenly sold everything to book profits. Wall st types by aggresively buying at lows and selling at high gave a fish bait to Japanese.

    Before the Asian crises who influenced the south east asian governments to deregulate, who advised them to open up without proper regulatory framework in place? Who are World bank and IMF - Disguised agents of wall street and NATO.

    Even though I am a capitalist and nationalist (a supporter of BJP/NDA) I must confess that I seriously appreciate the Communist party of India. They did a great favour to the country by restricting UPA's temptations to have full convertibility of rupee or increasing to 100% FDI in Insurance sector. Otherwise the current crises would have done even more damage and I too would have been in Bear crowd. Thanks to CPI (even though i am a capitalist), they prevented structural damage to Rupee that is why I am as always confident on India.
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  • Originally Posted by contra
    For Japanese banks to overlend they must have got liquidity from somewhere, who loaded them with so much capital that they were literally tempted to overlend? After they lent and increased supply, who suddenly sold everything to book profits. Wall st types by aggresively buying at lows and selling at high gave a fish bait to Japanese.

    Before the Asian crises who influenced the south east asian governments to deregulate, who advised them to open up without proper regulatory framework in place? Who are World bank and IMF - Disguised agents of wall street and NATO.

    Even though I am a capitalist and nationalist (a supporter of BJP/NDA) I must confess that I seriously appreciate the Communist party of India. They did a great favour to the country by restricting UPA's temptations to have full convertibility of rupee or increasing to 100% FDI in Insurance sector. Otherwise the current crises would have done even more damage and I too would have been in Bear crowd. Thanks to CPI (even though i am a capitalist), they prevented structural damage to Rupee that is why I am as always confident on India.

    Still I remember your post where you said Indian RE is not dependent on IT.Even a kid in India knows major buyers are IT people and NRIs.
    This sums up your understanding of Indian economics and RE leave alone international economics.

    Full convertibility of rupee was not stopped by communist but by the RBI and partly by government.Communist has no role in it.To understand communist economic policies no need to look beyond west bengal which have gone 40 years back under communist rule.
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  • Originally Posted by BigBear
    Still I remember your post where you said Indian RE is not dependent on IT.Even a kid in India knows major buyers are IT people and NRIs.
    This sums up your understanding of Indian economics and RE leave alone international economics.



    If a kid thinks that IT and NRIs are major buyers of real estate in India , that is why they are still kids. That is why you are another kid quoting other kids.

    Grow up, I still say Indian Real Estate is not dependent on IT employees.

    On the other hand IT entreprenuers like Infosys founders, Azim Premjis have made thousands of crores and they will still invest in real estate, as they can keep their cash in real estate for another decade until another new industry will get craze and people to will again run there.
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  • Lets not get personal folks ...

    Originally Posted by contra
    If a kid thinks that IT and NRIs are major buyers of real estate in India , that is why they are still kids. That is why you are another kid quoting other kids.

    Grow up, I still say Indian Real Estate is not dependent on IT employees.

    On the other hand IT entreprenuers like Infosys founders, Azim Premjis have made thousands of crores and they will still invest in real estate, as they can keep their cash in real estate for another decade until another new industry will get craze and people to will again run there.



    I know that I'm the last person to be saying this, but easy folks.

    Contra, the IT business has definitely had a significant part to play in the RE boom. Of course there have been substantial contributions by other sectors as well. But please remember that the big jumps in salaries for a lare number of people and the general loosening of purse-strings to buy big-ticket items like fancy cars and houses have been led (I'm talking of leadership, not of market-share) by the IT crowd. Now the leaders are taking a back seat.

    Coming to keeping the boom going, there needs to be a new set of leaders, that is, some other sector that will keep earning these unsustainable salaries for long periods of time and have the confidence that they will be able to. Can you think of any other? I can't.

    Therefore, till such time this monetary expansion returns via cost arbitrage or credit pumping, I see continuing contraction (at best stagnation) and this is why highly leveraged assets like exorbitantly homes or expensive cars will continue to decline in price and value for some time to come.

    cheers
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  • IT guys have fuelled the RE rates in the past couple of years.

    Any lay man understands this
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  • Originally Posted by contra
    If a kid thinks that IT and NRIs are major buyers of real estate in India , that is why they are still kids. That is why you are another kid quoting other kids.

    Grow up, I still say Indian Real Estate is not dependent on IT employees.

    On the other hand IT entreprenuers like Infosys founders, Azim Premjis have made thousands of crores and they will still invest in real estate, as they can keep their cash in real estate for another decade until another new industry will get craze and people to will again run there.


    You still think Premji and NRN will invest in RE after seeing Satyam's Raju downfall!
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  • Dear friend,

    Having already invested enough in RE, they may not be interested to invest more in RE now.

    ks2071746
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  • So if somebody says "RE is independant of IT" then they are kid eh? Actually there is a likely fall in Nifty in the next few days and then the bears can use that as another excuse why RE will fall. In other words bears are not kids, they are just fanatics with no thinking about RE. When I said bears I meant RE bears only.
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