Let us get to some pragmatic way of knowing the situation in chennai.
leave the faroff places of chennai the OMR.ORAGADAM,SRIPERMBUNDUR,
GST ROAD(beyond tambaram) Annanagar EXTN etc. members please post info on projects in good localities lying unsold -rates corrected beyond 25%-and . .
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    CommentQuote
  • Originally Posted by factsandfigures
    It is a myth that Chennai's real estate market is user driven as opposed to other cities which are more speculator driven.I know at least a dozen high worth individuals known to me personally who have invested in the last real estate boom in OMR and are repenting today.One of the person's who is a granite exporter invested in Purvankara's first project on OMR Swan Lake at Rs.5500 sq ft ,money diverted from his business.

    Today he needs the liquidity in his business but he is unable to off load this property at Rs.2200 per sq ft.


    read my post again i have said clearly after the advent of Dlf,HIRCO,PURVANKARA i have information about soft launches no chennai based builders opted for soft launches hithertho.
    CommentQuote
  • Dear friend,

    No Chennai builder has gone for soft launch so far.

    ks2071746
    CommentQuote
  • Friends,

    There are lots of chennai builders who have become big.

    Maybe they havent grown as big as those in mumbai,delhi,bangalore.But, They have spread to second/third tier cities like coimbatore, madurai, trichy, salem etc.

    Today they have grown into reputed builders and are capable to manage multi crore projects and handle huge residential complexes which were not seen few years back.

    Just to name a few builders Akshaya,vijayshanthi,Kgeyes,Ramaniyam,Lancor,Jain,Arihant,Doshi,True Value,Navin,Vasavi etc..

    Also, they do indulge in soft launch, maybe not in public but they approach the customers who have enquired with them for other projects earlier regarding the new launch.All this during the planning stage itself as it takes 6 months to 1 year to get approval from CMDA.

    In chennai No builder starts construction unless minimum 25-50% of the project is booked or the project is financed by a Bank.

    There are still many builders who announce only after they get all the approvals.Pre-launch is not a norm in chennai.
    CommentQuote
  • He who thinks RE in Chennai will fall back to 2004 prices like nine pins ....is smart ass :D. In early 2004 Ashok Nagar was 600 Rs/sq.ft some think it will go back there again...they are super smart you know:D

    Those who think realistically are Dumb .

    On a more serious note:
    Indian Economy has grown at 9% p.a. since 2004. Even this year it will have positive growth of 5%. Even if Indian economic growth falls to 3% p.a. still that is positive growth.

    The only way prices can grow back to 2004...the only way Ashok Nagar in Chennai can once a gain be 600 Rs./sq.ft is if economic growth in India becomes negative something like -4% p.a for 3-4 years.

    Are the bears thinking practically? Can India have negative -4% decline for 3 years?Can Ashok Nagar once a gain be 600 Rs./sq.ft? Now who is dumb?
    CommentQuote
  • No one says it will go to 2004 level.

    It will go to that level with inflation adjusted.
    see this. Then imagine what will happen to RE
    as companies focus more on cost-cutting due to persisting weakness in global demand, experts say.

    Companies may reduce workforce in this fiscal, mostly based on stringent performance criteria, experts added.

    "We expect the knowledge industry (IT) to see 3-5 per cent non-voluntary exits in the first two quarters of the financial year mainly in senior and middle levels," Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Senior Director (Management Consultancy Services) P Thiruvengadam told PTI.

    Given the fact that more than 22 lakh people in the IT industry, five per cent non-voluntary exits would mean more than one lakh employees being shown the door by September.







    The next 5-6 months would be critical for companies in deciding on job cuts. At present, layoffs are very few and more companies have frozen hiring to tackle the economic slowdown, Thiruvengadam said.

    Last week, third-largest exporter Wipro said it would freeze salary hikes and is uncertain about campus recruitment.

    Further, as per government data, over one lakh people lost jobs in the export sector due to the global downturn


    CommentQuote
  • You are missing a link ...

    Originally Posted by contra
    He who thinks RE in Chennai will fall back to 2004 prices like nine pins ....is smart ass :D. In early 2004 Ashok Nagar was 600 Rs/sq.ft some think it will go back there again...they are super smart you know:D

    Those who think realistically are Dumb .

    On a more serious note:
    Indian Economy has grown at 9% p.a. since 2004. Even this year it will have positive growth of 5%. Even if Indian economic growth falls to 3% p.a. still that is positive growth.

    The only way prices can grow back to 2004...the only way Ashok Nagar in Chennai can once a gain be 600 Rs./sq.ft is if economic growth in India becomes negative something like -4% p.a for 3-4 years.

    Are the bears thinking practically? Can India have negative -4% decline for 3 years?Can Ashok Nagar once a gain be 600 Rs./sq.ft? Now who is dumb?



    Contra,

    You are directly connecting India's 9% GDP growth with rise in RE prices. Well, what kind of equation are you considering? What are the variables and what, the constant factors?

    I have a slightly different opinion. India does not need -4% GDP growth for next 4 years for RE prices to decline 75% - 80% which is what is needed to go back to 2004 prices.

    Reason being, while our National GDP has only grown 9% pa, the huge debt overhang of our high-salaried employees has grown by an order of magnitude.

    Example: Take the case of a developer who was earning 15k in 2000 and who would have been able to raise a loan of 10 - 12L then. So he could only buy a house for a max of 15L.

    In 2008, because of American companies throwing large amounts of easy credit towards Indian IT and export companies and this resulting in insane and unsustainable salary increases to the same developers, they started getting 50k and 60k salaries pm for essentially the same kind of output.

    With banks jumping into the party and increasing leverage higher, these same people were now able to raise loans of around 70L - 100L. But surprise! Now the same 2bhk and 3bhk flats then available at 15L is now 80L. So, basically money lost value to such an extent that the same asset basically went up 5 - 6 times in currency. In fact, I would go so far as to say that the 15L flat was closer to city center in those days than the 1 crore flat today. Therefore I would say that the 1 crore flat in the boondocks today is probably worth less in real terms than the 20L flat of 2000. Such has been the fall in the real worth of the Rupee!!!

    Now that these same developers are starting to lose jobs in lakhs (and my calculation is 3 lakh people losing jobs over the next 2-3 year; the 1 lakh figure is too optimistic!), there will be a huge jump in distressed inventory in the market when builders come in with new stock while banks bring seized homes to market - both at distress prices. Not to mention distress in the banking sector due to the huge jump in NPAs and strong political pressure to maintain lending.

    By my calculation, even if our GDP goes flat for a couple of years, prices will not only fall the 60% being predicted by the "experts" today - which is the optimistic case, it can easily go down 80% for a while till excess inventory is cleared at huge distress prices, which is my realistic case!

    Think about it!!!;)

    cheers
    CommentQuote
  • Originally Posted by contra
    He who thinks RE in Chennai will fall back to 2004 prices like nine pins ....is smart ass :D. In early 2004 Ashok Nagar was 600 Rs/sq.ft some think it will go back there again...they are super smart you know:D

    Those who think realistically are Dumb .

    On a more serious note:
    Indian Economy has grown at 9% p.a. since 2004. Even this year it will have positive growth of 5%. Even if Indian economic growth falls to 3% p.a. still that is positive growth.

    The only way prices can grow back to 2004...the only way Ashok Nagar in Chennai can once a gain be 600 Rs./sq.ft is if economic growth in India becomes negative something like -4% p.a for 3-4 years.

    Are the bears thinking practically? Can India have negative -4% decline for 3 years?Can Ashok Nagar once a gain be 600 Rs./sq.ft? Now who is dumb?


    Who told you RE price in Ashok Nagar was 600 Rs/sq.ft.Are you talking about land or flat.See the attached link for the guideline value for land in 2004 for Ashoknagar.

    ]http://www.hindu.com/pp/2004/05/15/stories/2004051500080600.htm

    If the minimum guideline value itself was around 600rs/sq.ft, actual selling price should be 2-3 times the guideline value.

    If the minimum guideline value itself was around 600rs/sq.ft, actual selling price should be 2-3 times the guideline value.
    CommentQuote
  • Dear friend,

    In today's RE downtrend scenario and delayed start or late completion of projects, it is advisable that the buyer looks at the approval papers and also personally ascertain the progress of work at site and book the flat after hard negotiations to get the lowest possible price. In addition, one may have to have a look at the previous projects of the builder nearby and enquire with those buyers on the progress and issues faced in these projects by them at different stages. One should also check up/verify the UDS calculations for the flat he is looking for/booking. In today's context, those earlier days thinking that- early birds get the lower prices- may not be of so much botheration at the current scenario.

    ks2071746
    CommentQuote
  • Originally Posted by ks2071746
    Dear friend,

    - early birds get the lower prices- may not be of so much botheration at the current scenario.

    ks2071746


    These days late birds get lower prices
    CommentQuote
  • Originally Posted by BigBear
    Who told you RE price in Ashok Nagar was 600 Rs/sq.ft.Are you talking about land or flat.See the attached link for the guideline value for land in 2004 for Ashoknagar.

    ]http://www.hindu.com/pp/2004/05/15/stories/2004051500080600.htm

    If the minimum guideline value itself was around 600rs/sq.ft, actual selling price should be 2-3 times the guideline value.

    Correct, even in Maxworth Nagar Pallikaranai the rate was Rs 800/SqFt in 2004. Then the area was so remote and don't have the facilities it currently has.

    Correct, even in Maxworth Nagar Pallikaranai the rate was Rs 800/SqFt in 2004. Then the area was so remote and don't have the facilities it currently has.

    Correct, even in Maxworth Nagar Pallikaranai the rate was Rs 800/SqFt in 2004. Then the area was so remote and don't have the facilities it currently has.

    Correct, even in Maxworth Nagar Pallikaranai the rate was Rs 800/SqFt in 2004. Then the area was so remote and don't have the facilities it currently has.
    CommentQuote
  • Originally Posted by lovebird
    These days late birds get lower prices


    Dear friend,

    It is also true that late birds may get lower prices, but they may not end up with an overall good and the best of the few flats in the project.

    ks2071746
    CommentQuote
  • Originally Posted by BigBear
    Who told you RE price in Ashok Nagar was 600 Rs/sq.ft.Are you talking about land or flat.See the attached link for the guideline value for land in 2004 for Ashoknagar.

    ]http://www.hindu.com/pp/2004/05/15/stories/2004051500080600.htm

    If the minimum guideline value itself was around 600rs/sq.ft, actual selling price should be 2-3 times the guideline value.

    Ok, i have been following Chennai prices only since late 2006 and mainly lived in Bangalore ( i have a better understanding of trends in Bangalore being a long time resident there though a native of TN). So i made a mistake:(, fine, i underestimated Ashok Nagar :o.

    My argument was prices are not going to correct back to levels we saw before the spectacular rise in RE during 2004-2008. Let's forget that thought of buying back at 2004 prices....it's not going to happen. Ashok Nagar :o.

    My argument was prices are not going to correct back to levels we saw before the spectacular rise in RE during 2004-2008. Let's forget that thought of buying back at 2004 prices....it's not going to happen. Ashok Nagar :o.

    My argument was prices are not going to correct back to levels we saw before the spectacular rise in RE during 2004-2008. Let's forget that thought of buying back at 2004 prices....it's not going to happen. Ashok Nagar :o.

    My argument was prices are not going to correct back to levels we saw before the spectacular rise in RE during 2004-2008. Let's forget that thought of buying back at 2004 prices....it's not going to happen.
    CommentQuote
  • Originally Posted by lovebird
    No one says it will go to 2004 level.

    It will go to that level with inflation adjusted.

    see this. Then imagine what will happen to RE

    IT services may see over one lakh layoffs by September: Experts
    27 Apr 2009, 1506 hrs IST, PTI








    NEW DELHI: The Indian IT services sector may see up to five per cent layoffs -- amounting to more than one lakh job cuts -- over the next six months

    ="javascript:openslideshow('/slideshow/4454802.cms')"]

    as companies focus more on cost-cutting due to persisting weakness in global demand, experts say.

    Companies may reduce workforce in this fiscal, mostly based on stringent performance criteria, experts added.

    "We expect the knowledge industry (IT) to see 3-5 per cent non-voluntary exits in the first two quarters of the financial year mainly in senior and middle levels," Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Senior Director (Management Consultancy Services) P Thiruvengadam told PTI.

    Given the fact that more than 22 lakh people
    in the IT industry, five per cent non-voluntary exits would mean more than one lakh employees being shown the door by September.







    The next 5-6 months would be critical for companies in deciding on job cuts. At present, layoffs are very few and more companies have frozen hiring to tackle the economic slowdown, Thiruvengadam said.

    Last week, third-largest exporter Wipro said it would freeze salary hikes and is uncertain about campus recruitment.

    Further, as per government data, over one lakh people lost jobs in the export sector due to the global downturn



    Convenient words like Inflation adjusted means YOU DONT KNOW WHAT YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT LOVEBIRD. Come and state what you mean by fall. Just talking bearish means nothing. BE QUANTITATIVE and not QUALITATIVE like some talkative bears whose posts I dont even look at even by mistake! U know who!!
    Convenient words like Inflation adjusted means YOU DONT KNOW WHAT YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT LOVEBIRD. Come and state what you mean by fall. Just talking bearish means nothing. BE QUANTITATIVE and not QUALITATIVE like some talkative bears whose posts I dont even look at even by mistake! U know who!!
    Convenient words like Inflation adjusted means YOU DONT KNOW WHAT YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT LOVEBIRD. Come and state what you mean by fall. Just talking bearish means nothing. BE QUANTITATIVE and not QUALITATIVE like some talkative bears whose posts I dont even look at even by mistake! U know who!!
    Convenient words like Inflation adjusted means YOU DONT KNOW WHAT YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT LOVEBIRD. Come and state what you mean by fall. Just talking bearish means nothing. BE QUANTITATIVE and not QUALITATIVE like some talkative bears whose posts I dont even look at even by mistake! U know who!!
    Convenient words like Inflation adjusted means YOU DONT KNOW WHAT YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT LOVEBIRD. Come and state what you mean by fall. Just talking bearish means nothing. BE QUANTITATIVE and not QUALITATIVE like some talkative bears whose posts I dont even look at even by mistake! U know who!!
    Convenient words like Inflation adjusted means YOU DONT KNOW WHAT YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT LOVEBIRD. Come and state what you mean by fall. Just talking bearish means nothing. BE QUANTITATIVE and not QUALITATIVE like some talkative bears whose posts I dont even look at even by mistake! U know who!!
    CommentQuote
  • Dear friend,

    Who told the flat price at Ashok Nagar in 2004 was Rs. 600/sq. ft. It was around Rs. 2000 to 2500/sq. ft. range. Rs. 600/sq. ft. was the rate 15 years back when one of my colleagues bought an Alacrity flat there at this range of Rs. 600/sq. ft.

    ks2071746
    CommentQuote