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The Worst is Over For Real Estate

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The Worst is Over For Real Estate

Last updated: June 2 2009
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  • The Worst is Over For Real Estate

    “Every month we are seeing an increase in enquiries and demand for loans. The drop in demand for home loans is a myth created by the media,” said Keki Mistry, HDFC vice-chairman and managing director.


    I told you guys, don't listen to bears...fundamentals for real estate particularly in a young India are strong.


    ]http://www.livemint.com/2009/05/05005458/HDFC-net-profit-up-on-rising-l.html?h=A1[/url]


    HDFC beat profit forecasts of even street due to increase in home loan demand......inspite of heavy competition from PSU banks
    Last edited by contra; May 6 2009, 10:39 AM. Reason: link
  • #2

    #2

    Re : The Worst is Over For Real Estate

    contra the demand for home loans is greater for sub 20 lakhs and not more than that.thats why there is a demand for affordable housing or budget flats

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    • #3

      #3

      Re : The Worst is Over For Real Estate

      The same article contains a link to another article

      "While the growth in approvals is a good sign, much depends on how much of that is on account of loans to individuals and how much consists of more risky loans to developers."

      The following articles would make some interesting reading

      "Buyers should make their purchase decisions based on four key factors – the actual level of need, the suitability of location and property typology, the availability of a good deal and the long-term investment potential."

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      • #4

        #4

        Re : The Worst is Over For Real Estate

        Originally posted by contra View Post
        “Every month we are seeing an increase in enquiries and demand for loans. The drop in demand for home loans is a myth created by the media,” said Keki Mistry, HDFC vice-chairman and managing director.


        I told you guys, don't listen to bears...fundamentals for real estate particularly in a young India are strong.


        ]http://www.livemint.com/2009/05/05005458/HDFC-net-profit-up-on-rising-l.html?h=A1[/url]


        HDFC beat profit forecasts of even ***** street due to increase in home loan demand......inspite of heavy competition from PSU banks
        Dear Sir,

        HDFC profits are down by 4.5 percent if you compare on Q on Q basis.On per annum basis the profit is down by more then 6 percent.

        The company has made a higher provision of about Rs.600 crores for NPA as compared to Rs.400 crores.What does that mean.Go deeper in the Balance Sheet you will get the real picture.

        Lastly HDFC 60 percent of the disbursals are for a loan ticket of sub Rs.20 lakhs.In which metro will you get a house with a sub Rs.20 Lakh loan.

        And if you really think that Real Estate is not affected see the results of DLF and Purvankara which have the least amount of debt on their books.Other companise like Omaxe ,Unitech , Parsavnath and our only Chennai based listed RE entity Vijay Shanti Builders which have huge debts on the balance sheets are yet to come out of their results.

        Donot see HDFC's result as mirror for Real Estate which is a financial institution and have several other sources of income ie Treasury,Consultancy to beef up their balance sheet.

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        • #5

          #5

          Re : The Worst is Over For Real Estate

          Originally posted by contra View Post
          “Every month we are seeing an increase in enquiries and demand for loans. The drop in demand for home loans is a myth created by the media,” said Keki Mistry, HDFC vice-chairman and managing director.


          I told you guys, don't listen to bears...fundamentals for real estate particularly in a young India are strong.


          ]http://www.livemint.com/2009/05/05005458/HDFC-net-profit-up-on-rising-l.html?h=A1[/url]


          HDFC beat profit forecasts of even ***** street due to increase in home loan demand......inspite of heavy competition from PSU banks
          If RE has bottomed out why most of the listed developers are seeing reduction of more than 90% in their net profit.Yes dont listen to bears listen to bulls and buy their properties at exhorbitant rates and keep paying emi through out ur life.If you lose jobs bulls will come and pay ur emi!

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          • #6

            #6

            Re : The Worst is Over For Real Estate

            As RE does not have a definite indicator , its very difficult to say that its bottomed out.Can you provide an example among Chennai Builders who has reduced from the inflated peak prices save the issue-rich DLF Garden City ? No company has done it and because of that you can see the profits are shrinking down.And these little profits were possible due to the earlier bookings done in 2007-08.Definitely these companies will post a loss in the coming quarters.

            There are only two reasons to feel self-imposed-upbeat in this economic situation 1 . One who has invested heavily speculated/invested with high leverage and do not want people to realize the slowdown & planning to sell of the RE Assets quickly and 2.RE Brokers whose hitherto profits are looking day dream nowadays.

            With the already slowdown economy , the Bangalore-To-Buffalo tsunami to drain more jobs from India, the trouble will reach high magnitude in the days ahead.

            1. Jobs ... Jobs ...Jobs
            2. No sale & Huge availability of land in Chennai
            3. Inflated prices
            4. More repayment defaults by buyers/builders
            5. Increased job insecurity especially one earning more.

            Am of the strong opinion we can see minimum of 40 % correction in all the locations and if any one is bullish and buy houses today may regret tomorrow.
            Last edited by sethugm; May 6 2009, 10:42 AM.

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            • #7

              #7

              Re : The Worst is Over For Real Estate

              HDFC's earnings for 3rd quarter (Oct-Dec) had dropped 15.7%. That 3rd quarter was a bad quarter for real estate as we all knew.

              In 4th quarter (Jan-Mar) when most of us ( including myself) expected real estate disbursements to be even worse or stagnant at best, I was surprised to see HDFC bounce back with 20.23% earnings growth.

              Even tough I am bull, but very conservative. I was expecting a bounce only by last quarter of FY2009-10.

              Now inspite of dullest financial year for RE in last 6 years, still HDFC net profit for the full financial year 2008-09 has actually increased 23.2%. Mind you this increase is from a high base after record earnings in 2007-08.

              May be the current rally in BSE index in Banking stocks has some meaning, even I missed the upside in HDFC stock .

              HDFC is the bellwether for India's real estate. This bounce back in HDFC earnings is a good indicator that demand for home loans is coming back after a brief gap.

              So the US real estate situation will not happen in India. This proves India is different from US.

              Comment

              • #8

                #8

                Re : The Worst is Over For Real Estate

                From now you will keep hearing noises from bulls who want to dispose
                thier properties to gullible buyers as the stock markets started raising again.These were the same set of people who were arguing that bse or nse index does not reflect RE trend.Now since index is raising they will argue RE has bottomed out.
                As every sane person know stock markets will lead the economy revival by atleast a year.And for the people to feel the real effect will take one more year.So even for the sake of argument if one agree that stock market has bottomed out it will take atleast 2 more years for the people to feel
                the real impact of recovery.
                Even during last RE downturn it took 3 years to reach the bottom and last downturn was not caused by tsunami like crisis.Considering the history it will take 3-5 years for RE to bottom out.If someone says
                RE has bottomed out now either he must be a seller or broker who is hell bent to cheat buyers.
                See the below quote from Warren buffet regarding purchasing stock which can very well apply to RE.
                For some reason, people take their cues from price action rather than from values. What doesn't work is when you start doing things because they worked last week for somebody else.
                The dumbest reason in the world to buy a stock is because it's going up.

                Comment

                • #9

                  #9

                  Re : The Worst is Over For Real Estate

                  Dear friend,

                  Nobody ever knows what is the bottom and what would be the peak. Today's peak may become tomorrow's bottom if further peaks come up and vice versa.
                  No specific time is the worst time nor the best time to buy or sell. All is dependant on the capacity of the individual with cash in hand or capability to service the loan if any taken, for the entire period of repayment and for what purpose he is buying, either for own living or for investment. I am still to come across any one who has not made money in RE either in flats or plots, ( of course not cheated by any one with fraud documents) but only the rate of appreciation may vary, which in any case may work out more than the FD interest in a long term perspective, say 10 years like.

                  ks2071746

                  Comment

                  • #10

                    #10

                    Re : The Worst is Over For Real Estate

                    Originally posted by factsandfigures View Post
                    Dear Sir,

                    Donot see HDFC's result as mirror for Real Estate which is a financial institution and have several other sources of income ie Treasury,Consultancy to beef up their balance sheet.
                    Facts and Figures,

                    Everyone of us like your name, because its an irony.

                    I was talking about HDFC who are purely a Mortgage lender. For Banking services they have their sister concern HDFC Bank.

                    The profit drop of 6% y-o-y or 4.5% q-o-q you are quoting, where is the source.

                    I have already given the link to Livemint (from HT) who have given the figures of 23.2% yearly earnings growth for HDFC.
                    Last edited by contra; May 12 2009, 09:14 PM. Reason: grammer

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