1.Leading Real estate stocks make new highs or atleast touch 52 weeks high.

2.You start hearing frequent topics about RE in your nearby tea shop.

3.All the apartments even in remote areas are booked within a day of opening registration.

4.Sellers keep increasing the price every 1 week and are not willing to negotiate.

5.Lot of RE companies enter ipo market for raising equity and are oversubscribed easily.

6.Newspapers stop publishing news about RE price drops and discount offered.

7.Most of the people start getting double digit salary hikes and multiple job offers.

8.Bank agents run after you to sell home loans.

Request other people except bulls to add or correct any indicators as bulls will always say RE had already bottomed out and now is the time to buy.:D
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  • These are all indicators when RE has become a bubble friend :D.
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  • Well, the stock market is hitting up non-cerimoniously, Indian stocks are hitting up and sustaining new heights. It wont be be fair to just credit the RE, it is the market as a whole which is rising. I did open a thread to discuss the stock market rise month ago and it seems like it did hit the bull phase... but nothing will be clear until elections conclude. Even though the markets are gaining momentum there is no clear indication of good fundamentals with any sector as of now... it might be an election propaganda however the other world indicis are showing a similar but a rather scaled down trend. We only need to wait and see... the RE clearly knows to tap the feelings of the public so it will not be surprising about the facts u have told.

    I don't believe however about the excessive salary hikes. I am from a different field - shipping and it is one of the fields that was least affected (comparatively) but still I get a salary negotiated upto $700 less than what was given 8 months ago.Also I havent heard of any phenomenal price hike from my friends in the IT sector. Many of the new recruits are benched indefinitely even after training and the training periods as with many IT firms have actually increased. The companies still recruit freshers only to keep their standards.
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  • Originally Posted by BigBear
    1.Leading Real estate stocks make new highs or atleast touch 52 weeks high.

    2.You start hearing frequent topics about RE in your nearby tea shop.

    3.All the apartments even in remote areas are booked within a day of opening registration.

    4.Sellers keep increasing the price every 1 week and are not willing to negotiate.

    5.Lot of RE companies enter ipo market for raising equity and are oversubscribed easily.

    6.Newspapers stop publishing news about RE price drops and discount offered.

    7.Most of the people start getting double digit salary hikes and multiple job offers.

    8.Bank agents run after you to sell home loans.

    Request other people except bulls to add or correct any indicators as bulls will always say RE had already bottomed out and now is the time to buy.:D


    these are indicators of peak not the bottom you are talking the best case scenario. "bottom" is the worst case scenario and you will see exactly the opposite of what you say.

    a bottom means no more price cuts.volumes improving,inventories declining and job cuts moderating.manufacturing improving (MoM)
    people compare last years growth against current that will obviously -ve
    you have to compare month wise, last month as of now to see the signs of recovery
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  • BigBear was kidding!!!

    Originally Posted by contra
    These are all indicators when RE has become a bubble friend :D.


    abk and contra,

    He was saying it tongue-in-cheek! :D

    Plusminus, do you really think this rally is a new bull market? Well you might want to check out a recent post of mine about that!

    This is a Bear Market rally, just like the 2004 May Bull Market correction. Every trending market has periodic reversals to the tune of 38%, 50%, 62% or even 80% of the previous rise (these figures are just general though sometimes these numbers don't happen exactly). These ratios represent fibonacci ratios which seem to somehow occur in nature in a wide variety of ways. And empirical data shows that human behaviour also follow these wave patterns more often than not!

    Anyways, this rally should peak out around 14500 levels and then start downwards again. So, even if you want to invest in the market, please note that this is a trading market and will probably remain so for at least 2-4 years hence. And in trading markets you will always wait (patiently) for very low prices and very dull outlook before you buy. And you will sell when you get the customary 30% - 60% gains (some stocks give you 100%+ but I'm talking about overall portfolio gains) and not wait forever.

    Around dividend time wait to also get the dividend since many stocks give you from 8% upto 16-20% yields on your investment and this is free of tax. So, it will provide you much better returns than FD or any other kind of investment.

    These simple rules will see you make decent returns (around 30%+) every year in a safe manner, which is way above any other kind of investment, RE included!!! , while keeping you liquid and investing in the right sectors if you keep up with the news and figure that out.

    cheers
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  • Dear friend,

    I don't think all those 8 points stated can ever happen together at any point of time in the foreseeable future.

    ks2071746
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  • I like to differ ...

    Originally Posted by ks2071746
    Dear friend,

    I don't think all those 8 points stated can ever happen together at any point of time in the foreseeable future.

    ks2071746



    ks,

    Are you telling me that this kind of behaviour was not happening in 2007 - early 2008?

    I think every single point in that list was happening in full flow in that period. So much so that, even after this period of getting hit, people are still in that super-bullish mood and anytime the market looks like rising, they are trying to make a bee-line to the Banks and builders to see if they can get a once-in-a-lifetime bargain at 20% less than peak prices.

    cheers
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  • euphoric in 2007...

    dear friends,
    wiseman is right.the mood of the market in 2007 was euphoria.
    when there is a palpable sense of hopelessness we'll know the
    bottom has been reached.
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  • wiseman, sorry for using wrong terminology... should have used rally instead of bull market... well my point is the RE people will use this ( the current rally ) as a reason to tap in the sentiments of the people....

    The stock market as a whole is predicted to assume a 'W' shape instead of a 'V' shape ie., even if there is a bull phase and a markets rise testing the previous highs it is likely to test the october lows again all of this within three-four years...

    the major effect of this would be in complete and repeated draining of the funds of the market inturn that of the people so the end of this period ie., at the end of 3-4 years would be just be a re-construction period like the 2004-2006 rather than a prosperous period like 2007-2008...

    the election still holds the golden key...
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  • Originally Posted by wiseman


    Anyways, this rally should peak out around 14500 levels and then start downwards again. So, even if you want to invest in the market, please note that this is a trading market and will probably remain so for at least 2-4 years hence. And in trading markets you will always wait (patiently) for very low prices and very dull outlook before you buy. And you will sell when you get the customary 30% - 60% gains (some stocks give you 100%+ but I'm talking about overall portfolio gains) and not wait forever.

    Around dividend time wait to also get the dividend since many stocks give you from 8% upto 16-20% yields on your investment and this is free of tax. So, it will provide you much better returns than FD or any other kind of investment.

    These simple rules will see you make decent returns (around 30%+) every year in a safe manner, which is way above any other kind of investment, RE included!!! , while keeping you liquid and investing in the right sectors if you keep up with the news and figure that out.

    cheers


    I am worried about trading like you have given above. It is very fearful to buy something while planning to sell it after 30%-60% gains. If the timing fails it would end in a loss. (Even a safe sector like IT is not safe after Satyam, even a safe sector like Pharma is not safe anymore after Ranbaxy's stock crash. If knowledge industries like IT, Pharma can't be trusted whom will you trust in stock market).

    FD in big nationalized bank like SBI, PNB etc is the best saving for regular people and stocks are not for everyone.

    Equities/Stocks are only for younger ( 28 - 40 age group) and long term investors who have knowledge of what they are doing. For the rest of the population just follow grandmother's instructions - buy gold and buy land from government/publicsector entity.

      Gold is solid safe
      Land (atleast in Indian subcontinent) has beaten all assets in the long term.
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