We have got a fantastic government at the centre. Dr.Manmohan Singh is Prime Minister, Congress a secular party has emerged single largest party in the coalition with more than 2/3rds of MPs in the UPA from Congress itself. In terms of the baggage, this time Congress has fewer and larger allies. Interestingly 2 of the largest allies are also ex-congress like Sharad Pawar and Mamta Banerjee. Apart from this if needed anytime during next 5 years Congress also has few more secular parties as choices for new allies like Biju Janatha Dal and Nitish Kumar who are efficient and big with large number of MPS.

So since 1991 Narashimha Rao government this is the first stable goverment India has elected in almost 15 years. This is a reform oriented government and Dr.Manhoman Singh will have full power to implement reforms in Pensions, Insurance, Retail and other sectors with free hand. This stable government that has come to power is fantastic for investments and smooth steady reforms.

While I am happy that a first class choice has been made to form elected government I have suddenly turned bearish for next 6 months. I am bearish on everything (1) Stocks (2) Real Estate (yes I am bearish on RE) (3) IT jobs.

Reasons: During times when such good news is around investors become euphoric and suddenly start behaving crazy. Expect BSE index reaching big highs, expect DLF and Unitech annoucing that their bookings have gone up and their debt is reducing. Market expectations are very high now. After 2 months when things don't happen quickly as expected Markets will see their biggest fall.

I am bearish for next 6 months and will avoid both stocks and real estate. I am taking a vacation from any investment or buying and will decide after 6 months.

However will continue to post here just as an observer with some analysis. But the baseline is I am a BEAR now in Stocks, Real Estate and IT jobs.
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  • It should be noted the sentiments of the Indian stock market are not only indian but international in nature. Indian investors in Indian stock market are just a fraction of the total investors in the Indian stock market. I dont think that this positive effect in the minds of the Indian people will make them chaotic. This would have been true if the elections were over by Feb end but right now markets are already hiked up and extremely volatile. The goverment's recent statements are in coincidence with the previous statements of the government that the Indian economy was sheilded and independant of world economy when the stock market was inevitably making its steep fall.

    However the stock markets may continue to rise as u can see a similar trend in the all asian stocks & also the fall is inevitable...

    As of RE I strongly beleive, we would only know proper centiments at the end of 2 years. Because it will be the time when economy will start to reconstruct after it had drained all the liquid resources from its people. It will be like 2004 after 2 years.
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  • Singapore SGX Nifty can be easily manipulated without any STOCKS in hand. That is the beauty of Outsiders including NRIs fooling around in an Indian market. The same bunch of CROOKS did set up the RE rise in 2007 and now want a crash since they sold out. Dont worry about markets, that is for traders like me.
    Think about RE. That is the safest INVESTMENT option in India. Dont be fooled by these Wisey like sharks who will make u sell your precious land for a song and ask u to buy the same for a fortune in no time. Beware their intentions.
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  • Originally Posted by plusminus

    As of RE I strongly beleive, we would only know proper centiments at the end of 2 years. Because it will be the time when economy will start to reconstruct after it had drained all the liquid resources from its people. It will be like 2004 after 2 years.


    Stock markets rise before real economy or real estate. Regarding real estate investing/buying the situation is still not clear.

    However as far as stock markets are concerned recent past since March onwards presented great opportunities to buy as some star companies were available for lowly P/E ratios like 1, 2, 3, 4 :D ya low single digits. Even now some of these star companies will continue to be available at lower P/E ratios and the market will be traders market for some months with frequent profit booking on almost daily basis. Still if one has risk appetite the immediate 12 months are the best time ( we are back in june 2004) to enter the stock markets in big way. After 2-3 years when real economy takes off, stock market will just move up in one shot.
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  • Oh these predictions!

    with no offense meant to anyone, i am sick of this oft repeated statements' long term indian economy looks best; afetr 2-3 years there will be boom in RE, economy; long term indian stocks will reach 25000 sen etc etc.

    i find this a bit like pissing in the wind.

    sick of these predictions and all these are like coin tosses only.:)
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  • Dear friends,

    I do not know how many of you listened to Kalaignar TV program between 5 to 6 PM on 21/05/09 by name ILLA KANAVU, a question and answer live program. The guest was a Sr. Official from REPCO Bank. He was mentioning that though there are downtrend behaviour seen in the RE market in places like Mumbai & Bangalore etc., as far as Chennai is concerned, there are some downtrend like 10 to 20 percent in the out of city areas. He said, within the city limits, the reductions have been very marginal and in most places, it is the earlier prices levels only are being maintained. For your views pl.

    ks2071746
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  • Never heard of REPCO bank. Is it a reputed well known institution ????

    There are 3000 vacant flats just is velachary and immediate surroundings without new tenants many weeks after advertisements. If this is the state in Velachery ( which is nearest to employment generation corridor) what about city areas like vadapalani, anna nagar, koyembedu or even furthur away at ambattur, valasaravakkam etc. As tenants are very difficult to find (forget about reducing the rent there is no one available even to let out) will people have enthusiasm to buy or construct new flats.

    While I am still not clear if prices will fall or by how much they will fall or when will it fall etc. At the same time signals are very negative to buy either. Wait and watch seems to be the prudent decision now.

    This is only with regards to chennai real estate which is a super bubble now.
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  • Bangalore should be first choice for investment after the correction in real estate. Again not clear when and by how much correction will happen. Waiting and watching is best prudent decision.

    As far a stock market is concerned it's a different category. The immediate future is the best time (provided one can handle volatality on daily basis) to enter.
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  • Originally Posted by contra
    Never heard of REPCO bank. Is it a reputed well known institution ????

    There are 3000 vacant flats just is velachary and immediate surroundings without new tenants many weeks after advertisements. If this is the state in Velachery ( which is nearest to employment generation corridor) what about city areas like vadapalani, anna nagar, koyembedu or even furthur away at ambattur, valasaravakkam etc. As tenants are very difficult to find (forget about reducing the rent there is no one available even to let out) will people have enthusiasm to buy or construct new flats.

    While I am still not clear if prices will fall or by how much they will fall or when will it fall etc. At the same time signals are very negative to buy either. Wait and watch seems to be the prudent decision now.

    This is only with regards to chennai real estate which is a super bubble now.


    do you know the total no of approvals given in the last 3 years in velachery.and how have you arrived at the figure of 3000 apartments.
    tell me what is the rent for a 3 bed apartment in a decent location in velachery with a carpark? should be available for virtually free rentals???
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  • Originally Posted by abk
    do you know the total no of approvals given in the last 3 years in velachery.and how have you arrived at the figure of 3000 apartments.
    tell me what is the rent for a 3 bed apartment in a decent location in velachery with a carpark? should be available for virtually free rentals???


    The rent for a 3 bed apartment (considering 1500 Sq.ft) in a decent location with car park in velachery surooundings would be



      100ft road - 16,000-22,000
      Ceebros (velachery main road) - 23,000
      Opp TCS - 18,000
      AGS colony - 15,000
      Magnolia (checkpost) - 26,000

      Once velachery real estate falls, i will enter:D as I like investing here.

      When i gave a figure of 3000 in velachery surroundings , it includes flats in velachery and surroundings like srp tools, pallikarnai, perungudi, adambakkam, thoraipakkam, medavakkam etc.
      Once velachery real estate falls, i will enter:D as I like investing here.

      When i gave a figure of 3000 in velachery surroundings , it includes flats in velachery and surroundings like srp tools, pallikarnai, perungudi, adambakkam, thoraipakkam, medavakkam etc.
      Once velachery real estate falls, i will enter:D as I like investing here.

      When i gave a figure of 3000 in velachery surroundings , it includes flats in velachery and surroundings like srp tools, pallikarnai, perungudi, adambakkam, thoraipakkam, medavakkam etc.
      Once velachery real estate falls, i will enter:D as I like investing here.

      When i gave a figure of 3000 in velachery surroundings , it includes flats in velachery and surroundings like srp tools, pallikarnai, perungudi, adambakkam, thoraipakkam, medavakkam etc.
      Once velachery real estate falls, i will enter:D as I like investing here.

      When i gave a figure of 3000 in velachery surroundings , it includes flats in velachery and surroundings like srp tools, pallikarnai, perungudi, adambakkam, thoraipakkam, medavakkam etc.
      Once velachery real estate falls, i will enter:D as I like investing here.

      When i gave a figure of 3000 in velachery surroundings , it includes flats in velachery and surroundings like srp tools, pallikarnai, perungudi, adambakkam, thoraipakkam, medavakkam etc.
      Once velachery real estate falls, i will enter:D as I like investing here.

      When i gave a figure of 3000 in velachery surroundings , it includes flats in velachery and surroundings like srp tools, pallikarnai, perungudi, adambakkam, thoraipakkam, medavakkam etc.
      Once velachery real estate falls, i will enter:D as I like investing here.

      When i gave a figure of 3000 in velachery surroundings , it includes flats in velachery and surroundings like srp tools, pallikarnai, perungudi, adambakkam, thoraipakkam, medavakkam etc.
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  • If you are right contra about 35Rs to a $ then even if rental come down their USD yield will increase!! RIght?
    PS. If IT guys lose jobs, rentals will come down, but since Rs will appreciate with billions coming in, we will be internationally rich!! LOL!
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  • Originally Posted by contra
    The rent for a 3 bed apartment (considering 1500 Sq.ft) in a decent location with car park in velachery surooundings would be



      100ft road - 16,000-22,000
      Ceebros (velachery main road) - 23,000
      Opp TCS - 18,000
      AGS colony - 15,000
      Magnolia (checkpost) - 26,000
      Once velachery real estate falls, i will enter:D as I like investing here.

      When i gave a figure of 3000 in velachery surroundings , it includes flats in velachery and surroundings like srp tools, pallikarnai, perungudi, adambakkam, thoraipakkam, medavakkam etc.

      srp tools, pallikarnai, perungudi, adambakkam, thoraipakkam, medavakkam
      and velachery = velachery.
      jesus ?????????

      srp tools, pallikarnai, perungudi, adambakkam, thoraipakkam, medavakkam
      and velachery = velachery.
      jesus ?????????

      srp tools, pallikarnai, perungudi, adambakkam, thoraipakkam, medavakkam
      and velachery = velachery.
      jesus ?????????

      srp tools, pallikarnai, perungudi, adambakkam, thoraipakkam, medavakkam
      and velachery = velachery.
      jesus ?????????

      srp tools, pallikarnai, perungudi, adambakkam, thoraipakkam, medavakkam
      and velachery = velachery.
      jesus ?????????

      srp tools, pallikarnai, perungudi, adambakkam, thoraipakkam, medavakkam
      and velachery = velachery.
      jesus ?????????

      srp tools, pallikarnai, perungudi, adambakkam, thoraipakkam, medavakkam
      and velachery = velachery.
      jesus ?????????

      srp tools, pallikarnai, perungudi, adambakkam, thoraipakkam, medavakkam
      and velachery = velachery.
      jesus ?????????

      srp tools, pallikarnai, perungudi, adambakkam, thoraipakkam, medavakkam
      and velachery = velachery.
      jesus ?????????

      srp tools, pallikarnai, perungudi, adambakkam, thoraipakkam, medavakkam
      and velachery = velachery.
      jesus ?????????
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  • abk,

    read the title carefully "bearish in short term". Short term is short term and nothing else.

    I am a bigger bull than you or Natraj or anyone in this chennai forum. When most of you were pessimistic, Natraj even stopped posting for sometime. I was the only one still debating that Rupee will appreciate ( i posted that Rupee will appreciate when it was Rs.50 per USD see my old posts, now Rupee is Rs.46.7 per USD). I also posted in early May time was ripe to start building a portfolio in BSE or NSE, read my old posts and now BSE and NSE listed stocks have gone up. My personal investment in Unitech shares have risen 60% since that post in early may.

    In fact i was the only bull in chennai forum who was equally confident both on stock market and real estate. Even other bulls like natraj did not catch the stock market rise and were saying that NSE index would fall.

    Com'on i will be the last person to ask for a fall. Infact after market opening last tuesday (which hit upper circuit on monday) investors have proven that they are matured and are slowly buying and not rapidly. What i can notice is that within my portfolio except one big pharma company everything else has gone up 60% to 100% since mid april.
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  • Originally Posted by abk
    srp tools, pallikarnai, perungudi, adambakkam, thoraipakkam, medavakkam
    and velachery = velachery.
    jesus ?????????

    abk and contra,

    I am hearing for a long time that you are searching for a property.Have you bought it as price may increase(as per bulls).Is it the high price thats stoping you.Since you are bullish on RE you can buy anytime.Are you waiting for price reduction.
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  • Friends,

    Can someone clearly define who and when a person is a "Bull" or a "Bear".

    These are the two most (ab)used words in this forum.

    Irrespective of whether its bull or bear market, investment decision depends on the risk taking capacity of the individual

    Whether one chooses to

    Ride the Trend - Buying while price rises and selling when it falls.
    (or)
    Ride the Swing - Buying while the price falls and selling when it rises.

    is a personal choice of comfort and is irrespective of bullish(optimistic) or bearish(pessimistic) outlook of the person.

    The choice doesnt make much difference for RE investment when held long term is my stance.
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  • good one nabhishek

    time and again your posts bring serenity and poise to the forum.

    keep up the good work.

    if i may ask you, whats the situation in chennai after the elections? are the prices creeping up esp in the city?
    Hows the job situation now?
    Thanks in advance for your reply.
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