We have got a fantastic government at the centre. Dr.Manmohan Singh is Prime Minister, Congress a secular party has emerged single largest party in the coalition with more than 2/3rds of MPs in the UPA from Congress itself. In terms of the baggage, this time Congress has fewer and larger allies. Interestingly 2 of the largest allies are also ex-congress like Sharad Pawar and Mamta Banerjee. Apart from this if needed anytime during next 5 years Congress also has few more secular parties as choices for new allies like Biju Janatha Dal and Nitish Kumar who are efficient and big with large number of MPS.

So since 1991 Narashimha Rao government this is the first stable goverment India has elected in almost 15 years. This is a reform oriented government and Dr.Manhoman Singh will have full power to implement reforms in Pensions, Insurance, Retail and other sectors with free hand. This stable government that has come to power is fantastic for investments and smooth steady reforms.

While I am happy that a first class choice has been made to form elected government I have suddenly turned bearish for next 6 months. I am bearish on everything (1) Stocks (2) Real Estate (yes I am bearish on RE) (3) IT jobs.

Reasons: During times when such good news is around investors become euphoric and suddenly start behaving crazy. Expect BSE index reaching big highs, expect DLF and Unitech annoucing that their bookings have gone up and their debt is reducing. Market expectations are very high now. After 2 months when things don't happen quickly as expected Markets will see their biggest fall.

I am bearish for next 6 months and will avoid both stocks and real estate. I am taking a vacation from any investment or buying and will decide after 6 months.

However will continue to post here just as an observer with some analysis. But the baseline is I am a BEAR now in Stocks, Real Estate and IT jobs.
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  • Hi,

    GDP figures r out 5.8 %.

    h will it effect eco & reality.

    It will surely boost some confidence
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  • Originally Posted by BigBear
    In hyderabad prices have crashed.Check with any hyderabad guy he will tell you.In Bangalore personally I had enquired about flats in 2005 around marathalli,brookefield,whitefield.The quoted price at that time was around rs.2000-2500.

    Recently I checked the price from 99acres,newspapers ad and also with some of my friends.Current price is around rs.2000-3000.So even if we take the upper band of rs.3000 CAGR is only 10% from 2004-09 and that was an unprecendented great credit boom period.

    In the same time chennai witnessed 200-300% rise across all areas.


    In bangalore in some locations like bannergetta road, HSR layout, marathalli, whitefield, KR puram as lot of small builders and agents constructed low quality apartments at bad locations with mud roads etc. They also did not get proper approvals and did not follow rules. People in bangalore are very choosy and have bluntly avoided such bad projects. That is why the prices in such bad projects have seen no movement in the last few years.

    However if you look at better projects at good locations prices have quietly increased in this time. Just take the example of J P nagar 1 phase where prices have reached Rs.9000/- per sq.ft from around Rs.4000/- in 2005-06.
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  • Originally Posted by contra
    In bangalore in some locations like bannergetta road, HSR layout, marathalli, whitefield, KR puram as lot of small builders and agents constructed low quality apartments at bad locations with mud roads etc. They also did not get proper approvals and did not follow rules. People in bangalore are very choosy and have bluntly avoided such bad projects. That is why the prices in such bad projects have seen no movement in the last few years.

    However if you look at better projects at good locations prices have quietly increased in this time. Just take the example of J P nagar 1 phase where prices have reached Rs.9000/- per sq.ft from around Rs.4000/- in 2005-06.

    In chennai only dlf and unitech type of builders build homes.you dont see any small builders here?In chennai we have only high quality apartments at good location with proper approvals and road.Fact is RE has corrected drastically in bangalore and next in line is chennai even though you are in denial mode as expected.
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  • Originally Posted by BigBear
    In chennai only dlf and unitech type of builders build homes.you dont see any small builders here?In chennai we have only high quality apartments at good location with proper approvals and road.Fact is RE has corrected drastically in bangalore and next in line is chennai even though you are in denial mode as expected.

    Who is Unitech or DLF in CHennai? Only Bigbear and the today's 22year old babies think about such projects. There are more than a hundred builders and many who are famous. Appaswamy to Jain, Ceebros to Ramaniyam. They were themselves big builders and are yet big, though they are not some outsiders to Chennai to go build realestate some 40km from Chennai and calling that Chennai.
    If Big bear is telling that Unitech and DLF project prices will crash, I can tell u even more. Only idiots will buy from these projects.
    BTW did anyone notice a OCEANIC group talk of building 6000sqft apartments for 4Crores (I want that fool who talks about oru ayirum etc, to visit them and get bashed up! LOL!). You know where in Chennai. Well to me it is not in Chennai but for BigBear like clowns it is in a place called Siruseri and ask Wiseman if Siruseri is Chennai! LOL!
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