We have got a fantastic government at the centre. Dr.Manmohan Singh is Prime Minister, Congress a secular party has emerged single largest party in the coalition with more than 2/3rds of MPs in the UPA from Congress itself. In terms of the baggage, this time Congress has fewer and larger allies. Interestingly 2 of the largest allies are also ex-congress like Sharad Pawar and Mamta Banerjee. Apart from this if needed anytime during next 5 years Congress also has few more secular parties as choices for new allies like Biju Janatha Dal and Nitish Kumar who are efficient and big with large number of MPS.

So since 1991 Narashimha Rao government this is the first stable goverment India has elected in almost 15 years. This is a reform oriented government and Dr.Manhoman Singh will have full power to implement reforms in Pensions, Insurance, Retail and other sectors with free hand. This stable government that has come to power is fantastic for investments and smooth steady reforms.

While I am happy that a first class choice has been made to form elected government I have suddenly turned bearish for next 6 months. I am bearish on everything (1) Stocks (2) Real Estate (yes I am bearish on RE) (3) IT jobs.

Reasons: During times when such good news is around investors become euphoric and suddenly start behaving crazy. Expect BSE index reaching big highs, expect DLF and Unitech annoucing that their bookings have gone up and their debt is reducing. Market expectations are very high now. After 2 months when things don't happen quickly as expected Markets will see their biggest fall.

I am bearish for next 6 months and will avoid both stocks and real estate. I am taking a vacation from any investment or buying and will decide after 6 months.

However will continue to post here just as an observer with some analysis. But the baseline is I am a BEAR now in Stocks, Real Estate and IT jobs.
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