How do we know if the RE bubble in India has burst or is about to burst? The RE bubble in Japan went through this cycle, the RE in USA experienced the same. Some areas got hit more than others meaning RE dropped by 20% - 30% in some areas and 10% in other areas.
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  • Originally Posted by BigBear
    Wiseman,
    Nifty has touched 4240 today and it confirms the fact noone can time the market in short term.Best of luck next time:D

    that's right.

    many technical analysts had predicted bear market after the formation of head and shoulders pattern.

    yesterday, too, the indices went up and the reason given by some experts was short covering rally. i wonder what reason they have come up with today.
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  • I am seriously worried about the shareholders of indian banks which are still aggresivly promoting home loans by offering teaser rates like 8% for 1st year.

    Just ask the shareholders of Citibank, BoA, Wells Fargo etc in USA....how much they lost in 2008, they are yet to recover the 52 week highs inspite of recent rally.

    Even china stopped buying bonds of Fannie, Freddie the largest home mortgage companies in USA after start of 2008.
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  • Originally Posted by lovebird
    Yes, people are changing seeing the realities. After few months you also will change and sell your plot at correct market rates as a bear

    Let us assume I turn a bear and sell it! Wont the buyer at whatever prices be a fool to buy it since prices will fall further based on your bear theory? And if he bought with the fact price will move up, wont I be incorrect to sell it listening to the feather brained! These bears on RE are really writing their last chapter. Enjoy dear birds and other feather brained writers!
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  • Originally Posted by BigBear
    As far I know in Bangalore flat prices in 2009 is more or less same as in 2005 in some areas like marathalli,whitefield,itpl etc.

    Bangalore lead chennai in boom same holds good for bust.

    Prices dont move up continously either at the daily level or at the decade level. There is something called as consolidation. Incidentally flat prices in Bangalore never shot up like in Chennai. This is because land appreciates and building depreciates. The percentage of land in a flat in Bangalore is much much lesser than in Chennai! Get your fundas right BigBear. Unless ofcourse you are another of those crybabies who missed the bus and will continue to miss it and just keep crying standing in the bus stop!
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  • Originally Posted by BigBear
    Wiseman,
    Nifty has touched 4240 today and it confirms the fact noone can time the market in short term.Best of luck next time:D

    Wiseman never timed the market. He predicted after the events! LOL!
    Sometimes he does not know about the event and keeps predicting incorrectly like falling RE prices in Chennai!
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  • Just think of this story.
    Some X listens to Wiseman, sells his RE, shorts DJI at 8100 with all his money, is trapped at 8500 and is been cleared out for margin call! He is in the street.
    Newspaper will write
    Rich baron sells land, shorts DJI and Nifty, commits suicide! Wiseman the conman found guilty. Police on the lookout for the bear cartel!
    LOL!
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  • Don't be in too much of a hurry, BigBear!

    Originally Posted by BigBear
    Wiseman,
    Nifty has touched 4240 today and it confirms the fact noone can time the market in short term.Best of luck next time:D


    BigBear,

    You are too quick to judge, so take it a little easy!

    First of all, my shorts are at 4700 and again at 4450. Please also note that a derivatives trader is quite unlike a delivery-based trader, who can hold positions indefinitely.

    No trending move goes up or down like a straight line. There are up days and there are down days as any chart will tell you (attaching a chart to show what I mean - Readers who object, please excuse this time)!

    I still continue to hold them because technically we are still in a down move which should see 3600-3800 range within the timeframe of August 5th timewise and the Sensx is slated to reach the 12000 levels simultaneously). Please see this in the right perspective. The 4700 to 3950 fall was 750 point fall. This 3950 to 4250 rise is a 300 point rise which is not even a 50% rise (40% rise actually). Please be patient and not be so quick to judgement. After all, unlike Nats, I do have money in the market and am not just shooting off my mouth with random words chained together which he thinks actually makes sense! LOL

    Did you know that the most anyone can make in a trade within a settlement is 250%? And the average high return is in the range of 100-150%.

    Therefore, when the 4700 shorts hit 300% around the 4000 level, the formula tripped and I covered the 4700 shorts which has given ample profits!:D

    Coming to the 4450 shorts, my premium paid is fully covered by the profits made in the 4700 shorts. So no capital risks. In fact, even if the entire premium is lost I will still emerge with handsome profits this time!

    Besides, in the final analysis, even if this analysis turns out wrong as many time it does, my stop losses get triggered and I exit with at least 150% profit in this down move. Not bad for a 1 month return on investment, right?:D

    This down leg is not done yet! And time will tell if I got this right or not!

    ps: much to Nats disappointment, here's the score. Notice the March 9th bottom. I just happened to get lucky on a hunch and went long on that particular day. I continued to be pursuing an uptrend till the 4700 levels around June 10th (exactly 3 months). Covered all my long positions and went short then. On budget day, extended my short positions and only covered the june peak shorts 2 days ago at 4000.

    Normally one does not get so lucky and time almost perfectly but it happens sometimes. And one single set of trades like this can help you achieve your annual roi goals!!!

    Now back to RE!

    cheers
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  • Originally Posted by Natarajg007
    Prices dont move up continously either at the daily level or at the decade level. There is something called as consolidation. Incidentally flat prices in Bangalore never shot up like in Chennai. This is because land appreciates and building depreciates. The percentage of land in a flat in Bangalore is much much lesser than in Chennai! Get your fundas right BigBear. Unless ofcourse you are another of those crybabies who missed the bus and will continue to miss it and just keep crying standing in the bus stop!

    I have seen prices going up 50-100% in 2004-05 in bangalore and Chennai actually laged Bangalore at that time.
    I am comparing bangalore prices in 2005 and 2009 and not chennai with bangalore price.So what is percentage of land to do with this.
    Whatever you say all commodities(including land) will go by supply and demand scenario.When demand was there prices shot up and when demand is falling prices
    are falling.You cannot change their theory which is in force for centuries.Better to miss the bus rather than get into a overspeeding bus and die.:D
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  • Originally Posted by wiseman
    BigBear,

    You are too quick to judge, so take it a little easy!

    First of all, my shorts are at 4700 and again at 4450. Please also note that a derivatives trader is quite unlike a delivery-based trader, who can hold positions indefinitely.

    No trending move goes up or down like a straight line. There are up days and there are down days as any chart will tell you (attaching a chart to show what I mean - Readers who object, please excuse this time)!

    I still continue to hold them because technically we are still in a down move which should see 3600-3800 range within the timeframe of August 5th timewise and the Sensx is slated to reach the 12000 levels simultaneously). Please see this in the right perspective. The 4700 to 3950 fall was 750 point fall. This 3950 to 4250 rise is a 300 point rise which is not even a 50% rise (40% rise actually). Please be patient and not be so quick to judgement. After all, unlike Nats, I do have money in the market and am not just shooting off my mouth with random words chained together which he thinks actually makes sense! LOL

    Did you know that the most anyone can make in a trade within a settlement is 250%? And the average high return is in the range of 100-150%.

    Therefore, when the 4700 shorts hit 300% around the 4000 level, the formula tripped and I covered the 4700 shorts which has given ample profits!:D

    Coming to the 4450 shorts, my premium paid is fully covered by the profits made in the 4700 shorts. So no capital risks. In fact, even if the entire premium is lost I will still emerge with handsome profits this time!

    Besides, in the final analysis, even if this analysis turns out wrong as many time it does, my stop losses get triggered and I exit with at least 150% profit in this down move. Not bad for a 1 month return on investment, right?:D

    This down leg is not done yet! And time will tell if I got this right or not!

    ps: much to Nats disappointment, here's the score. Notice the March 9th bottom. I just happened to get lucky on a hunch and went long on that particular day. I continued to be pursuing an uptrend till the 4700 levels around June 10th (exactly 3 months). Covered all my long positions and went short then. On budget day, extended my short positions and only covered the june peak shorts 2 days ago at 4000.

    Normally one does not get so lucky and time almost perfectly but it happens sometimes. And one single set of trades like this can help you achieve your annual roi goals!!!

    Now back to RE!

    cheers

    Ok will wait till August 5th and see.
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  • Originally Posted by nabishek
    The banks are trying to orchestrate another RE boom.

    This time at a different level.They are trying to cash in on the affordable=attractive sentiment of people and promoting the sub 30 lakhs loan segment.

    They still think and hope to repeat the same story of 2004-2006 and get another sweep of such people falling prey to them all over again.

    Will they be successful?thoughts please.


    Banks will be strong as long as they have liquidity = money flowing in. Once the liquidity tap stops Banks will shiver and get nervous. Then they will stop lending.

    Nobody is above market...market is god. If market is overvalued than it will correct itself by a big crash. No money printing by government and banks can prevent the crash.

    Just ask the Japanese..Real estate crashed in Japan in 1990....it has never recovered even now. In 2000, 10 years after real estate crash in Japan...tokyo and osaka were 70% below 1990 prices without inflation adjustment in nominal terms (Sorry...Japan never had inflation in that dead decade...Japan had deflation ......Deflation is the ultimate stealth weapon to kill bulls)

    Nobody can manipulate the market...if it has to crash it will.
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  • Originally Posted by BigBear
    I have seen prices going up 50-100% in 2004-05 in bangalore and Chennai actually laged Bangalore at that time.
    I am comparing bangalore prices in 2005 and 2009 and not chennai with bangalore price.So what is percentage of land to do with this.
    Whatever you say all commodities(including land) will go by supply and demand scenario.When demand was there prices shot up and when demand is falling prices
    are falling.You cannot change their theory which is in force for centuries.Better to miss the bus rather than get into a overspeeding bus and die.:D

    Well Bear, if you dont understand mathematics I cant help you. Land appreciates and building depreciates. In 2003-2007 to be precise land prices shot up in Bangalore almost 10 times in many a places of which 80% or more were done in 2003-2004. Flat prices went up just 2 times to max 3 times.
    In Chennai land prices shot up between 2004 and 2007 almost 6 to 8 times. Flat prices went up almost 5 to 6 times. Since the ratio of land in a flat in Chennai is higher the land price escalation took up the price of flat in Chennai.
    To be precise flat bought in 1998 has gone up atmost 3 times in Bangalore at its peak. No more!
    Anyway you seem to want to say that market is bearish and you wont listen to arguments. I wont push you further as you are also part of that funny cartel desperate to get prices down. Unfortunately you guys are a. Wrong and b. Causing chaos to folks who listen to you.
    Well only God can save those idiots who follow you!
    And look at your friend, an upmove he says is nothing and he expects downmove. Ask him to talk of DJI because that is where he is terribly bearish, World markets, American markets. Why the shit did it shoot up?
    Well Wiseman and you are having a view which I strongly believe is terribly against the truth. If you both can find anyone land in Chennai for 50L and below per ground another writer here is desperate to buy it. Please do that and then talk your bearish stories. Just that the two of you were sacked from your job may not mean bearishness. It might mean that you are not upto the trend in jobs and you should enhance your skills. So dont use your own personal lines to determine prices of the market!
    Have a great day Mr. Bear!
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  • Originally Posted by Natarajg007

    To be precise flat bought in 1998 has gone up atmost 3 times in Bangalore at its peak. No more!


    I don't agree that flat prices is bangalore have not appreciated much.

    A flat by nagarjuna constructions in J.P.nagar 1st phase (near R V dental college) went for Rs. 8 lacs in 1997, in the same complex flat was sold at Rs.25 lacs in 2005.

    A flat at Mantri paradise in Bannergetta road was bought at Rs.25 lacs in 2003 when it was just completed...in 2005 end the same flat was sold at Rs.42 lacs.

    Flats in premium locations and built with good quality have given good appreciation in bangalore.

    It is a myth that buying Chennai flats is better than buying in Bangalore flats. One more myth by Chennai real estate cartel to fool buyers.


    In bangalore land prices skyrocketed 8-10 times in 2004 & 2005 those 2 years. Since early 2006 land prices have stagnated in Bangalore...i am really surprised at the consistency of this stagnation in last 3.5 years....no rise and slight fall.

    Whereas in Chennai in 2004, 2005 land was dirt cheaper than Bangalore. ( In 2005 when bangalore was rising like fully charged rocket a plot in upcoming arekare mico layout in Bannergetta road outskirts was worth more than a plot in vadapalani central chennai). In fact I purchased a plot in velachery in 2005 for the same reason as in that year 2005 chennai was very cheap compared to bangalore which was a blazing rocket that year.

    Since early 2006 however, Chennai land prices has risen like 8-10 times.
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  • Infra

    Agree with point regarding Flat/land appreciation by Nats.

    Would look to point out Ahmedabad RE scenario.

    Now Ahmedabad is a typical Indian town with hardly any IT push. Inspite being a state capital, within 6 hrs of Mumbai, with huge Gujju NRI population has hardly seen much bubble RE prices. So the prices r continuing to rise even in present Recession period due to low base effect. This fact is being exploited by Bulls in TV channels / news paper
    Tom tomimg Bull theory of recovery.

    Another important aspect is the good infra provided by Govt in form of ring roads with water and light connections. Thus u can get bunglows in Amdavad in prices which u get box houses in out skirts of Pune.

    As per Nats, stabilisation period is there like Stock markets in RE. So earn't we in a stab period after tremendous run in these last three years.
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  • Originally Posted by Sansei
    Agree with point regarding Flat/land appreciation by Nats.

    Would look to point out Ahmedabad RE scenario.

    Now Ahmedabad is a typical Indian town with hardly any IT push. Inspite being a state capital, within 6 hrs of Mumbai, with huge Gujju NRI population has hardly seen much bubble RE prices. So the prices r continuing to rise even in present Recession period due to low base effect. This fact is being exploited by Bulls in TV channels / news paper
    Tom tomimg Bull theory of recovery.

    Another important aspect is the good infra provided by Govt in form of ring roads with water and light connections. Thus u can get bunglows in Amdavad in prices which u get box houses in out skirts of Pune.

    As per Nats, stabilisation period is there like Stock markets in RE. So earn't we in a stab period after tremendous run in these last three years.


    Sansei,

    you are a pune guy and a very irregular visitor to chennai forum, so don't get carried away by what nats or anyone says.

    nats is a person who is telling people to buy now and get 300% appreciation next 3-4 years...he is talking of the boom time continuing at the same pace for next 10-20 years like it happened in period since 2006.

    nats is not the one to talk about stabilizing...he only talks about super bull run for another 10-20 years.

    if someone is misleading public....you also don't unknowingly mislead people by validating such people.
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  • Originally Posted by Natarajg007
    Well Bear, if you dont understand mathematics I cant help you. Land appreciates and building depreciates. In 2003-2007 to be precise land prices shot up in Bangalore almost 10 times in many a places of which 80% or more were done in 2003-2004. Flat prices went up just 2 times to max 3 times.
    In Chennai land prices shot up between 2004 and 2007 almost 6 to 8 times. Flat prices went up almost 5 to 6 times. Since the ratio of land in a flat in Chennai is higher the land price escalation took up the price of flat in Chennai.
    To be precise flat bought in 1998 has gone up atmost 3 times in Bangalore at its peak. No more!
    Anyway you seem to want to say that market is bearish and you wont listen to arguments. I wont push you further as you are also part of that funny cartel desperate to get prices down. Unfortunately you guys are a. Wrong and b. Causing chaos to folks who listen to you.
    Well only God can save those idiots who follow you!
    And look at your friend, an upmove he says is nothing and he expects downmove. Ask him to talk of DJI because that is where he is terribly bearish, World markets, American markets. Why the shit did it shoot up?
    Well Wiseman and you are having a view which I strongly believe is terribly against the truth. If you both can find anyone land in Chennai for 50L and below per ground another writer here is desperate to buy it. Please do that and then talk your bearish stories. Just that the two of you were sacked from your job may not mean bearishness. It might mean that you are not upto the trend in jobs and you should enhance your skills. So dont use your own personal lines to determine prices of the market!
    Have a great day Mr. Bear!

    Exactly thats what we are saying.For 50 lakhs we cannot find decent place in chennai!!Real estate has become reel estate and time to come back to realty.
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