How do we know if the RE bubble in India has burst or is about to burst? The RE bubble in Japan went through this cycle, the RE in USA experienced the same. Some areas got hit more than others meaning RE dropped by 20% - 30% in some areas and 10% in other areas.
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  • Originally Posted by contra


    nats is a person who is telling people to buy now and get 300% appreciation next 3-4 years...he is talking of the boom time continuing at the same pace for next 10-20 years like it happened in period since 2006.

    nats is not the one to talk about stabilizing...he only talks about super bull run for another 10-20 years.

    if someone is misleading public....you also don't unknowingly mislead people by validating such people.


    No Contra, I dont think thats what nats has been saying.I have been reading his posts ever since he started to contribute in this forum and following is what I gather.

    1.RE investment means only buying Land.
    2.Flat should be bought only for living and doesnt make any investment sense.
    3.Chennai RE has been giving good 15-30% CAGR depending on the location in the past.
    4.Dont sell your land unless you face a crisis and need cash.Entry and exit in RE is not childs play.
    5.The correction phase that we are witnessing is only a consolidation phase and is temporary, nats is urging people to make use of this opportunity to strike a good deal and make an entry as he believes there will be yet another surge in prices taking the prices to a new high level hitting your current affordability.(The timing of this is what is being debated, personally I feel and believe upmove is not possible before another wave of correction thats imminent, the current prices are unreal and inflated)

    Nats is clear on his fundamentals,Its confusing to others because most people who are looking to buy property are through taking loans, and by reading his posts they may interpret that nats is asking people to take huge loans to buy property hoping huge returns at current price in short term.

    I dont remember reading nats say that till now.He only has to explain his postition regarding it.

    Anyways, If you interpret as follows I find his arguments very valid.

    Following is my own interpretation

    Instead of making 15% downpayment and taking 85% loan and buying a flat to save rents and keep paying EMI's throughout your life for 20 years.

    Invest your 15% savings and other surpluses if any, in a land with good livable location and basic infrastructure cash down, you have possibility to see better returns at the end of 20 years than any other investment instrument with medium risk.All this without the hassles of debt, paying income tax, showing loss from property for interest outgoing etc.

    20 years is a long term, There is surely a possibility of atleast one RE boom again, if not more.

    If someone buys a flat and expects 300% returns in 3 to 4 years in todays scenario, that person is going to bite dust.Any appreciation of flat is only because of appreciation of land.Land appreciation happens in sustainable manner only in long term.

    If people can hope to leverage and gain profits by buying a flat and can expect 15-20% CAGR returns at the end of 20 years, as told by banks.Imagine the returns had they invested(not speculated) in land alone and that too without loan?

    Its important everyone understands all the implications,set correct expectations,understand risks involved and make an informed decision while buying property.
    CommentQuote
  • Very good points and a balanced view!

    Originally Posted by nabishek
    No Contra, I dont think thats what nats has been saying.I have been reading his posts ever since he started to contribute in this forum and following is what I gather.

    1.RE investment means only buying Land.
    2.Flat should be bought only for living and doesnt make any investment sense.
    3.Chennai RE has been giving good 15-30% CAGR depending on the location in the past.
    4.Dont sell your land unless you face a crisis and need cash.Entry and exit in RE is not childs play.
    5.The correction phase that we are witnessing is only a consolidation phase and is temporary, nats is urging people to make use of this opportunity to strike a good deal and make an entry as he believes there will be yet another surge in prices taking the prices to a new high level hitting your current affordability.(The timing of this is what is being debated, personally I feel and believe upmove is not possible before another wave of correction thats imminent, the current prices are unreal and inflated)

    Nats is clear on his fundamentals,Its confusing to others because most people who are looking to buy property are through taking loans, and by reading his posts they may interpret that nats is asking people to take huge loans to buy property hoping huge returns at current price in short term.

    I dont remember reading nats say that till now.He only has to explain his postition regarding it.

    Anyways, If you interpret as follows I find his arguments very valid.

    Following is my own interpretation

    Instead of making 15% downpayment and taking 85% loan and buying a flat to save rents and keep paying EMI's throughout your life for 20 years.

    Invest your 15% savings and other surpluses if any, in a land with good livable location and basic infrastructure cash down, you have possibility to see better returns at the end of 20 years than any other investment instrument with medium risk.All this without the hassles of debt, paying income tax, showing loss from property for interest outgoing etc.

    20 years is a long term, There is surely a possibility of atleast one RE boom again, if not more.

    If someone buys a flat and expects 300% returns in 3 to 4 years in todays scenario, that person is going to bite dust.Any appreciation of flat is only because of appreciation of land.Land appreciation happens in sustainable manner only in long term.

    If people can hope to leverage and gain profits by buying a flat and can expect 15-20% CAGR returns at the end of 20 years, as told by banks.Imagine the returns had they invested(not speculated) in land alone and that too without loan?

    Its important everyone understands all the implications,set correct expectations,understand risks involved and make an informed decision while buying property.



    Abishek,

    Very well done!:D

    cheers
    CommentQuote
  • Originally Posted by nabishek
    No Contra, I dont think thats what nats has been saying.I have been reading his posts ever since he started to contribute in this forum and following is what I gather.

    1.RE investment means only buying Land.
    2.Flat should be bought only for living and doesnt make any investment sense.
    3.Chennai RE has been giving good 15-30% CAGR depending on the location in the past.
    4.Dont sell your land unless you face a crisis and need cash.Entry and exit in RE is not childs play.
    5.The correction phase that we are witnessing is only a consolidation phase and is temporary, nats is urging people to make use of this opportunity to strike a good deal and make an entry as he believes there will be yet another surge in prices taking the prices to a new high level hitting your current affordability.(The timing of this is what is being debated, personally I feel and believe upmove is not possible before another wave of correction thats imminent, the current prices are unreal and inflated)

    Nats is clear on his fundamentals,Its confusing to others because most people who are looking to buy property are through taking loans, and by reading his posts they may interpret that nats is asking people to take huge loans to buy property hoping huge returns at current price in short term.

    I dont remember reading nats say that till now.He only has to explain his postition regarding it.

    Anyways, If you interpret as follows I find his arguments very valid.

    Following is my own interpretation

    Instead of making 15% downpayment and taking 85% loan and buying a flat to save rents and keep paying EMI's throughout your life for 20 years.

    Invest your 15% savings and other surpluses if any, in a land with good livable location and basic infrastructure cash down, you have possibility to see better returns at the end of 20 years than any other investment instrument with medium risk.All this without the hassles of debt, paying income tax, showing loss from property for interest outgoing etc.




    Ok like you said if people listen to Nats and decide to buy land in chennai.

    How many people can buy land in annanagar, adyar, mylapore...forget these....how many people can buy land in tambaram, ambattur without taking loans.

    If everybody is rich and can buy land with 100% cash of thier own ...i will be the first person to agree with nats ( by the way on some other issues like stock trading i have agreed with him in the past).

    I didn't expect this illogical explanations from you of all the people nabhishek.
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  • Besides, in the final analysis, even if this analysis turns out wrong as many time it does,

    -- covering your bases, eh? :) based on pure technicals, you think that the markets will tank by aug 5th because of the head and shoulders patten created on the charts. well, i don't argue now, but we will wait till aug 5th. i do not have any opinion on this, really, but am curious to see how accurate technical analyses are.
    CommentQuote
  • Originally Posted by contra
    I don't agree that flat prices is bangalore have not appreciated much.

    A flat by nagarjuna constructions in J.P.nagar 1st phase (near R V dental college) went for Rs. 8 lacs in 1997, in the same complex flat was sold at Rs.25 lacs in 2005.

    A flat at Mantri paradise in Bannergetta road was bought at Rs.25 lacs in 2003 when it was just completed...in 2005 end the same flat was sold at Rs.42 lacs.

    Flats in premium locations and built with good quality have given good appreciation in bangalore.

    It is a myth that buying Chennai flats is better than buying in Bangalore flats. One more myth by Chennai real estate cartel to fool buyers.


    In bangalore land prices skyrocketed 8-10 times in 2004 & 2005 those 2 years. Since early 2006 land prices have stagnated in Bangalore...i am really surprised at the consistency of this stagnation in last 3.5 years....no rise and slight fall.

    Whereas in Chennai in 2004, 2005 land was dirt cheaper than Bangalore. ( In 2005 when bangalore was rising like fully charged rocket a plot in upcoming arekare mico layout in Bannergetta road outskirts was worth more than a plot in vadapalani central chennai). In fact I purchased a plot in velachery in 2005 for the same reason as in that year 2005 chennai was very cheap compared to bangalore which was a blazing rocket that year.

    Since early 2006 however, Chennai land prices has risen like 8-10 times.

    Did you Contradict me Contra? I said Bangalore flats went up atmost 3 times and your data says the same!
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  • Originally Posted by Sansei
    Agree with point regarding Flat/land appreciation by Nats.

    Would look to point out Ahmedabad RE scenario.

    Now Ahmedabad is a typical Indian town with hardly any IT push. Inspite being a state capital, within 6 hrs of Mumbai, with huge Gujju NRI population has hardly seen much bubble RE prices. So the prices r continuing to rise even in present Recession period due to low base effect. This fact is being exploited by Bulls in TV channels / news paper
    Tom tomimg Bull theory of recovery.

    Another important aspect is the good infra provided by Govt in form of ring roads with water and light connections. Thus u can get bunglows in Amdavad in prices which u get box houses in out skirts of Pune.

    As per Nats, stabilisation period is there like Stock markets in RE. So earn't we in a stab period after tremendous run in these last three years.

    A relative whose property is there in Bangalore but lives in Ahmedabad with her husband was shocked by Bangalore prices an year ago. She said she can get a house for 25L. Now RE went up everywhere. Just that it went up from a lower base in Ahmedabad and probably at a lower pace! I dont want to argue about Ahmedabad as my domain is Chennai and Bangalore. Full stop!
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  • Originally Posted by contra
    Sansei,

    you are a pune guy and a very irregular visitor to chennai forum, so don't get carried away by what nats or anyone says.

    nats is a person who is telling people to buy now and get 300% appreciation next 3-4 years...he is talking of the boom time continuing at the same pace for next 10-20 years like it happened in period since 2006.

    nats is not the one to talk about stabilizing...he only talks about super bull run for another 10-20 years.

    if someone is misleading public....you also don't unknowingly mislead people by validating such people.

    I thought just a week or two ago you were bullish. Means you were misleading people! You seem to be Chameleon in the pack!
    CommentQuote
  • Originally Posted by BigBear
    Exactly thats what we are saying.For 50 lakhs we cannot find decent place in chennai!!Real estate has become reel estate and time to come back to realty.

    You are praying it comes down. I am saying it wont come down. We certainly are on two sides of the coin.
    BTW find out your Buffet friend's comment on CNBC! He is bullish now!
    CommentQuote
  • Originally Posted by nabishek
    No Contra, I dont think thats what nats has been saying.I have been reading his posts ever since he started to contribute in this forum and following is what I gather.

    1.RE investment means only buying Land.
    2.Flat should be bought only for living and doesnt make any investment sense.
    3.Chennai RE has been giving good 15-30% CAGR depending on the location in the past.
    4.Dont sell your land unless you face a crisis and need cash.Entry and exit in RE is not childs play.
    5.The correction phase that we are witnessing is only a consolidation phase and is temporary, nats is urging people to make use of this opportunity to strike a good deal and make an entry as he believes there will be yet another surge in prices taking the prices to a new high level hitting your current affordability.(The timing of this is what is being debated, personally I feel and believe upmove is not possible before another wave of correction thats imminent, the current prices are unreal and inflated)

    Nats is clear on his fundamentals,Its confusing to others because most people who are looking to buy property are through taking loans, and by reading his posts they may interpret that nats is asking people to take huge loans to buy property hoping huge returns at current price in short term.

    I dont remember reading nats say that till now.He only has to explain his postition regarding it.

    Anyways, If you interpret as follows I find his arguments very valid.

    Following is my own interpretation

    Instead of making 15% downpayment and taking 85% loan and buying a flat to save rents and keep paying EMI's throughout your life for 20 years.

    Invest your 15% savings and other surpluses if any, in a land with good livable location and basic infrastructure cash down, you have possibility to see better returns at the end of 20 years than any other investment instrument with medium risk.All this without the hassles of debt, paying income tax, showing loss from property for interest outgoing etc.

    20 years is a long term, There is surely a possibility of atleast one RE boom again, if not more.

    If someone buys a flat and expects 300% returns in 3 to 4 years in todays scenario, that person is going to bite dust.Any appreciation of flat is only because of appreciation of land.Land appreciation happens in sustainable manner only in long term.

    If people can hope to leverage and gain profits by buying a flat and can expect 15-20% CAGR returns at the end of 20 years, as told by banks.Imagine the returns had they invested(not speculated) in land alone and that too without loan?

    Its important everyone understands all the implications,set correct expectations,understand risks involved and make an informed decision while buying property.

    Nabhishek, God bless you. Your first few lines state Exactly what I have been saying. I have no simple way to appreciate your CLARITY, BREVITY and PRECISION. Once more my sincere thanks to you (one before for helping me with Reply features on this board!). We certainly need to meet sometime in life. Thank you.
    CommentQuote
  • Originally Posted by wiseman
    Abishek,

    Very well done!:D

    cheers

    Wisey,
    I am happy you understand what I have said by indirectly thanking Nabhishek. Now we can battle out the only point "will it rise now or not..is it investment time now or not".
    Strange why you have been fighting with me worthlessly all these months when you understand what I wrote!
    CommentQuote
  • Originally Posted by contra
    Ok like you said if people listen to Nats and decide to buy land in chennai.

    How many people can buy land in annanagar, adyar, mylapore...forget these....how many people can buy land in tambaram, ambattur without taking loans.

    If everybody is rich and can buy land with 100% cash of thier own ...i will be the first person to agree with nats ( by the way on some other issues like stock trading i have agreed with him in the past).

    I didn't expect this illogical explanations from you of all the people nabhishek.

    If Nabishek is wrong on something I will agree never has Nabhishek been ILLOGICAL. If Nabhishek is called as illogical that only shows Contra is just here to contradict anything and everything.
    I can respect Wisey sometimes, but Contra you are here just to contradict. Wisey may be bearish and wrong but he is clear about his position and does not change it every weekend. Contra, I wont be surprised if next week you call it long!
    RE is investor paradise not like Stock market where I can short now and go long after an hour! You better get yourself clear since I dont think you are being hazardous to others (as by now everyone knows that you are just a contradictor!) but it can be hazardous to you. You really need to watch our your own good buddy!
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  • Contra means contrarian and not contradiction. World's best investors are contrarian's who always take a opposing view.

    Just like their are bulls and bears there are also contrarians. But so far in my experience i have followed the contrarian investors and made good profits and i also find them the most honest when compared to bulls or bears.

    This will be my last post in this forum. I can't waste my contrarian investment knowledge at a place where people abuse me.

    Good bye

    Before i go, let me the share this link

    ="http://www.gloomboomdoom.com/"]www.gloomboomdoom.com/

    from the best contrarian of all time Dr.Marc Faber

    from the best contrarian of all time Dr.Marc Faber
    CommentQuote
  • Originally Posted by contra
    Contra means contrarian and not contradiction. World's best investors are contrarian's who always take a opposing view.

    Just like their are bulls and bears there are also contrarians. But so far in my experience i have followed the contrarian investors and made good profits and i also find them the most honest when compared to bulls or bears.

    This will be my last post in this forum. I can't waste my contrarian investment knowledge at a place where people abuse me.

    Good bye

    Before i go, let me the share this link

    ="http://www.gloomboomdoom.com/"]www.gloomboomdoom.com/

    from the best contrarian of all time Dr.Marc Faber
    You have not been abused one bit and if you felt bad with me, I am sorry. All I can tell you for sure is, I can tend to ignore your posts and you can continue to write here. Remember, contrarian means disagreement and disagreement does not mean abuse.
    Anyway the call is yours, not that I miss you but I have no reasons to make you feel sorry personally. All the best and hope you pursue what is good for you.
    You have not been abused one bit and if you felt bad with me, I am sorry. All I can tell you for sure is, I can tend to ignore your posts and you can continue to write here. Remember, contrarian means disagreement and disagreement does not mean abuse.
    Anyway the call is yours, not that I miss you but I have no reasons to make you feel sorry personally. All the best and hope you pursue what is good for you.
    You have not been abused one bit and if you felt bad with me, I am sorry. All I can tell you for sure is, I can tend to ignore your posts and you can continue to write here. Remember, contrarian means disagreement and disagreement does not mean abuse.
    Anyway the call is yours, not that I miss you but I have no reasons to make you feel sorry personally. All the best and hope you pursue what is good for you.
    You have not been abused one bit and if you felt bad with me, I am sorry. All I can tell you for sure is, I can tend to ignore your posts and you can continue to write here. Remember, contrarian means disagreement and disagreement does not mean abuse.
    Anyway the call is yours, not that I miss you but I have no reasons to make you feel sorry personally. All the best and hope you pursue what is good for you.
    CommentQuote
  • Originally Posted by nabishek
    No Contra, I dont think thats what nats has been saying.I have been reading his posts ever since he started to contribute in this forum and following is what I gather.

    1.RE investment means only buying Land.
    2.Flat should be bought only for living and doesnt make any investment sense.
    3.Chennai RE has been giving good 15-30% CAGR depending on the location in the past.
    4.Dont sell your land unless you face a crisis and need cash.Entry and exit in RE is not childs play.
    5.The correction phase that we are witnessing is only a consolidation phase and is temporary, nats is urging people to make use of this opportunity to strike a good deal and make an entry as he believes there will be yet another surge in prices taking the prices to a new high level hitting your current affordability.(The timing of this is what is being debated, personally I feel and believe upmove is not possible before another wave of correction thats imminent, the current prices are unreal and inflated)

    Nats is clear on his fundamentals,Its confusing to others because most people who are looking to buy property are through taking loans, and by reading his posts they may interpret that nats is asking people to take huge loans to buy property hoping huge returns at current price in short term.

    I dont remember reading nats say that till now.He only has to explain his postition regarding it.

    Anyways, If you interpret as follows I find his arguments very valid.

    Following is my own interpretation

    Instead of making 15% downpayment and taking 85% loan and buying a flat to save rents and keep paying EMI's throughout your life for 20 years.

    Invest your 15% savings and other surpluses if any, in a land with good livable location and basic infrastructure cash down, you have possibility to see better returns at the end of 20 years than any other investment instrument with medium risk.All this without the hassles of debt, paying income tax, showing loss from property for interest outgoing etc.

    20 years is a long term, There is surely a possibility of atleast one RE boom again, if not more.

    If someone buys a flat and expects 300% returns in 3 to 4 years in todays scenario, that person is going to bite dust.Any appreciation of flat is only because of appreciation of land.Land appreciation happens in sustainable manner only in long term.

    If people can hope to leverage and gain profits by buying a flat and can expect 15-20% CAGR returns at the end of 20 years, as told by banks.Imagine the returns had they invested(not speculated) in land alone and that too without loan?

    Its important everyone understands all the implications,set correct expectations,understand risks involved and make an informed decision while buying property.

    Once again my appreciation of the conciseness of Nabhishek's writeup. Just to add to that. I have personally never taken loans to buy RE. NEVER. I have hardly taken loans and 2 of those occasions were to buy cars. In the first case the company had a policy of return if I left them and I used that to exit. In the latter case I had all the money to buy the car without a loan. I took the loan for some tax benefits (I dont plan to discuss this!).
    In summary I am a cash player. Even when I take a loan I will certainly have the cash to pay it up and that is the way with trading. So those who BOAST on BORROWED money are condemned to the pits.
    I wont ask anyone either in 2004 or in 2009 or anytime earlier or later to take a loan to SPECULATE. Never. If you need a house and you think you can repay it, do take a loan but again you should know the end conditions.
    In US you may just lose your home if your repayment fails, in India you will lose your second home, your car, your gold and also your peace of mind when you take a loan. Remember in those days guarantors were needed and the loan issuer will not only harass you but also your guarantor. In such a country where the law invariably favours the bank, the rich and the mighty, if you dont know your game then you are liable to be dumped into shit.
    Let me add, that the above no way means that I think RE will fall or economy will falter. Rather I advise each individual not to ape his neighbour (and this is the average Madrasi!!!) and rather meet his requirement. I dont believe in buying my son a PS2 when he has a game boy just because his classmate has one! (What dost thou think about this last line Wisey?)
    Cheers.
    PS. Wisey writes... This PS2 thingy....
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  • Nats, its not your arguments. Its your language!!!

    Originally Posted by Natarajg007
    You have not been abused one bit and if you felt bad with me, I am sorry. All I can tell you for sure is, I can tend to ignore your posts and you can continue to write here. Remember, contrarian means disagreement and disagreement does not mean abuse.
    Anyway the call is yours, not that I miss you but I have no reasons to make you feel sorry personally. All the best and hope you pursue what is good for you.



    Nats,

    Use this rule whenever you post something.

    Read your post before submitting it. See if you like the language as if someone else had written the specific post and directed it at you. If you are satisfied, submit. Else, correct till satisfied and then submit.

    Do unto others s you would like them to do unto you! This way, you will ensure people read your post concentrating on the logic rather than the language and get all riled about it!

    Contra. Lets be mature. Stay logged on! :D After all, I do need my alleged "proxies"! :D

    cheers
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