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2010 The Year of Real Estate Bull

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2010 The Year of Real Estate Bull

Last updated: March 30 2010
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  • Re : 2010 The Year of Real Estate Bull

    Originally posted by wiseman View Post
    Compu,

    Since you brought up the issue of Sovereign Debt Default (why the markets have been falling recently in 2010), here is an interesting article I happened to see which actually gives some logic behind why the US will DEFINITELY DEFAULT on its Debt obligations sometime in the future! This is a mathematical certainty. Please check out the following article ...

    ]http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/it-is-now-mathematically-impossible-to-pay-off-the-u-s-national-debt[/URL]

    Enjoy.

    cheers
    Due sovereign bond concerns of Greece, Spain, Italy (Ireland has restructured) the world is going to go on a tail spin and the first to fall will be the US and then followed by Armageddon and end of civilization. - Some would like us to believe.


    It is not new news, It has been a concern since Early 2009, any now market is revisiting the concerns, therefore the volatility.

    Exactly like what happened when Argentina defaulted in 2000 to 2002 - There was not even a blip in Chennai RE

    Exactly like when Russia defaulted in 1998 and Chennai RE prices did not even register a blip.

    Look dude Greece & Spain will come out it even if they have issues there will be some strong market volatiles in equity & Bond market for about 2-3 months.

    The credit market has re priced and factored in European sovereign bond concerns.

    You are going to see (Over the next 2 – 3 months) how the bond market is going to settled down (as they always did on previous occasions)

    No Armageddon.

    No dooms day

    No Tsunami.

    You Jumped up & down and called the end of Chennai RE when :

    1.Global financial crisis Happened in Nov 2008,
    2.then again when Dubai World Crisis
    3.Now again for sovereign bond concerns.

    The members know what happened.

    The members here are not day traders or speculators they are long term investors.

    Comment


    • Re : 2010 The Year of Real Estate Bull

      Hey economist, enough criticising others from you. Lets hear what you yourself think. I will pose a series of questions to you.

      1. Do you think this is a good time to invest in Chennai RE (mid income flat for say 20-30L?)

      2. Which is the area you would suggest within Chennai which has slightly better water and electricity and at the same time has adequate employment opportunity for mid income - say 50,000 PM of today. The place should have adequate power for continuous AC use

      3. What is your opinion of Guindy and airport region

      4. What psf rate would you suggest

      5. What rental income will such a flat fetch

      6. What is the crime and corruption levels in the area

      7. What is the scope of following careers in that area
      a. Medicine
      b. s o f t w a r e engineer

      8. What is the retail/commercial psf rates (capital values) in the area you recommend

      9. What is the rental yield psf PM in this shop

      10. How would you rate Chennai vis a vis Coimbatore, Mangalore, Bangalora and Trivandrum if a person wants to move from Delhi to the south

      (You see, I am worried about wars in the north and am evaluating options :-) ......... Sorry, just couldnt help it!)
      Venky (Please read watch a or before posting)

      Comment


      • Re : 2010 The Year of Real Estate Bull

        [QUOTE=1. Do you think this is a good time to invest in Chennai RE (mid income flat for say 20-30L?)[/QUOTE]

        I do not find any flat 2 Bed Room within Tambaram, Sholinganallur, Ambattur Limit

        Comment


        • Re : 2010 The Year of Real Estate Bull

          Do you know the difference?

          Originally posted by Economist View Post

          It is not new news, It has been a concern since Early 2009, any now market is revisiting the concerns, therefore the volatility.

          Exactly like what happened when Argentina defaulted in 2000 to 2002 - There was not even a blip in Chennai RE

          Exactly like when Russia defaulted in 1998 and Chennai RE prices did not even register a blip.

          Look dude Greece & Spain will come out it even if they have issues there will be some strong market volatiles in equity & Bond market for about 2-3 months.

          The credit market has re priced and factored in European sovereign bond concerns.

          You Jumped up & down and called the end of Chennai RE when :

          1.Global financial crisis Happened in Nov 2008,
          2.then again when Dubai World Crisis
          3.Now again for sovereign bond concerns.

          The members know what happened.

          Economist,

          I relish the thought of demolishing some of the stuff you just wrote so that, when you (as Venky says) criticise without thinking, next time you might think a little about what you say ...

          Do you know the difference between an ant falling on your head and at least one elephant (maybe 3) falling one after another on your head?! Well, the US, EU and Japan are the 3 elephants (or 800 pound Gorillas) which are now poised to fall unlike the 2001 Argentinian ant. Maybe now you can see how you compare a peanut to a large rock when you compare the 2001 Argentinian crisis to current one. Besides, the rest of the world was going gangbusters and so you never felt the Argentina episode like you will feel this one as now, every country is falling in sync!!!

          Second, I was not jumping up and down (I was sitting) when I was posting in 2008. If you only cared to go back to those posts to verify whether you were talking about what I said (or about what you perceived), in every post I was talking about this RE bottom at the very least in 2011-2012 OR LATER!

          So, you might consider that I am probably more long term here than you will be because I was trying to point out to you that my horizon was at least 3 years while your horizon (when pointing to the rapid rise in RE prices recently) was probably much more speculative as you were jumping with joy about the price rise.

          This can only point to one thing. Unlike your pointer about my purported vested interest in fallin prices, it appears that you seem very keen in rising prices and jump with joy as soon as it happens. Why? Are you invested heavily in RE recently and worried about what in case it really falls and what these guys say happens?

          Don't fear. I'm not fear mongering here. As I keep saying, I continue to believe that eventually logic will prevail and affordability will happen as prices correct to get people to invest. Ultimately the builder WILL BLINK (or go bust!).

          So, even if prices decline, it will only give guys like me a great window to invest/buy for living and will eventually return to previous highs.

          cheers

          Comment


          • Re : 2010 The Year of Real Estate Bull

            Originally posted by wiseman View Post
            Economist,

            Well, the US, EU and Japan are the 3 elephants (or 800 pound Gorillas) which are now poised to fall unlike the 2001 Argentinian ant.

            Are you invested heavily in RE recently and worried about what in case it really falls and what these guys say happens?

            cheers
            ARE YOU PREDICTING FOR SURE US, EU (AS A WHOLE) AND JAPAN ARE GOING TO DEFAULT?

            No surprise everyone is calling you a doomsdayer.


            The issue is with Greece & Spain mainly and to an extend to Ireland and Portugal.

            In regards to my views:

            I HATE PEOPLE WHO ARROGANTLY THINK THEY KNOW WHERE THE MARKET WILL GO (both skyrocket theorist & dooms day theorist)

            As professional I assimilate qualified projection on a daily basis and I have been long enough in the profession to understand no one knows where the market are heading.

            A real professional will know that and will not get carried away by prophecies.


            A credible professional will not declare prophecies or declare he knowns what will happen and when.

            I am not geared in to real estate heavily as you think.

            I am a slow and gradual investor who follows:


            • Diversification.
            • Cash flow strategy (The key).
            • Minimal gearing.
            • Regular investment plan.
            • Aware of investment time horizon.

            I am still looking out investment opportunity in Chennai and Bangalore .

            I personally wish for moderate and healthy growth in RE.


            I am qualified enough to know “Higher house price does not mean the home owner are wealthy” & Unhealthy RE price rise is not good.

            But once again – I hate the half baked people who declare prophecies (both Up & Up, skyrocket guys and dooms day guys).

            Even more immature/silly thing is to quote exact year in prophecies and also saying what will happen in each coming quarters.

            you make a road side Astrologer look credible.

            Markets are above all of us.
            Last edited by Economist; February 7 2010, 10:13 AM.

            Comment


            • Re : 2010 The Year of Real Estate Bull

              Dear wiseman,
              what i fail to understand is how a free fall in the markets will result in a corresponding fall in RE prices.Don't we all know that the parellel economy in India is bigger than the real economy ?
              regarrds
              unlikely

              Comment


              • Re : 2010 The Year of Real Estate Bull

                You are absolutely right!

                Originally posted by Economist View Post
                ARE YOU PREDICTING FOR SURE US, EU (AS A WHOLE) AND JAPAN ARE GOING TO DEFAULT?

                No surprise everyone is calling you a doomsdayer.


                The issue is with Greece & Spain mainly and to an extend to Ireland and Portugal.

                In regards to my views:

                I HATE PEOPLE WHO ARROGANTLY THINK THEY KNOW WHERE THE MARKET WILL GO (both skyrocket theorist & dooms day theorist)

                As professional I assimilate qualified projection on a daily basis and I have been long enough in the profession to understand no one knows where the market are heading.

                A real professional will know that and will not get carried away by prophecies.


                A credible professional will not declare prophecies or declare he knowns what will happen and when.

                I am not geared in to real estate heavily as you think.

                I am a slow and gradual investor who follows:


                • Diversification.
                • Cash flow strategy (The key).
                • Minimal gearing.
                • Regular investment plan.
                • Aware of investment time horizon.

                I am still looking out investment opportunity in Chennai and Bangalore .

                I personally wish for moderate and healthy growth in RE.


                I am qualified enough to know “Higher house price does not mean the home owner are wealthy” & Unhealthy RE price rise is not good.

                But once again – I hate the half baked people who declare prophecies (both Up & Up, skyrocket guys and dooms day guys).

                Even more immature/silly thing is to quote exact year in prophecies and also saying what will happen in each coming quarters.

                you make a road side Astrologer look credible.

                Markets are above all of us.

                Economist,

                Good that we are finally getting down to brass tacks!

                You are absolutely correct in the following ...

                - Market is paramount
                - No one can accurately predict 100% of the time
                - Arrogance is not a good quality in anyone as it is the beginning of the downfall

                But where did you think I had all these qualities? Is it perhaps your own fears and doubts that turn a guy who is trying to make educated guesses into a 100%-correct-all-the-time, arrogant person? Think about it!!!

                And the automatic assumption by you that people who predict are automatically half-baked (how did yoi come to that conclusion?) and that astrology is a sham (and how did you come to that conclusion?) imply that you have some deep-rooted prejudices about certain professions and types of people, which, in a way is also a type of arrogance which says, my philosophy is the only correct one and others are shams, frauds and unprofessional people!!! You might want to check out on your own prejudices and see how to be a little more accomodating in your outlook.

                An extreme form of this inablity to accept other points of view is what manifests as Bal Thakeray and the MNS!

                Now, getting down to the situation at hand.

                S&P, which downgraded Japan just 2 weeks back has already stated that the US is already in the downgrade zone and the only thing that keeps it from being downgraded is the reserve currency status of the $$$ and the fact that US is still far and away the largest economy in the world (besides the tacit political pressure not to downgrade) that keeps the US still at AAA.

                It is not my arrogance that practically guarantees the collapse of the current US and Japan (EU is not so straightforward is it has strong as well as weak economies and the weak will probably get it in the neck).

                This does not mean they will end as a civilization. They will ressurect as a changed country (or even multiple countries if the US splits into zones; unlikely but there are arguments in this favor) which will again start growing after all the crap has been cleaned out. This is the considered opinion of many "doomsayers" who, unfortunately have been far more accurate in predicting things so far compared to the Ben Bernankes of this world.

                Western Scientific thinking does not even begin to have solutions to our problems today so, implying that this is the only way to think might put you at a disadvantage. For example, I know of people (and I personally can do it upto a certain extent) who can close their eyes and tell you what physical ailments you had in the past (some of which even you do not know) what ailments you have today and this would be 100% accurate. I have done it personally and it works. How do you explain that with science? Its explained away as coincidence, but when it happens far in excess of statistical probability then what is the explanation?

                I went short in late december 2007, went long on 9th March 2009 and went short again around 5300 Nifty. This is 3 out of 3. You call that lucky? I might miss the next rally for sure, but even then 3 out of 4 is absolutely okay for me as it makes me huge amounts of money on the bets I take (in the kingdom of the blind, the one eyed man is king!)

                There is so much we don't know yet. Closing your mind to new things is the best way to remain where you are!!!

                cheers
                Last edited by wiseman; February 7 2010, 11:10 AM.

                Comment


                • Re : 2010 The Year of Real Estate Bull

                  Originally posted by wiseman View Post
                  Economist,

                  I went short in late december 2007, went long on 9th March 2009 and went short again around 5300 Nifty. This is 3 out of 3. You call that lucky? I might miss the next rally for sure, but even then 3 out of 4 is absolutely okay for me as it makes me huge amounts of money on the bets I take (in the kingdom of the blind, the one eyed man is king!)


                  cheers
                  I thought we were discussing real estate, I wasn't this is a share traders forum.

                  we all know that is a different ball game all together.

                  I don't want to go around talking about my tactical move and investment reviews i make on equity related Investments as this forum is not appropriate for that.

                  May be your comments will suite some one buys and sell property for a living and turn over stocks every few months (brokers)

                  BTW I review and make tactical move on liquid investments as that is my profession.

                  REMEMBER!!! WE ARE TALKING DIRECT REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT.

                  if you are not aware direct Real Estate is not traded like shares.

                  No T +2 settlement.
                  Last edited by Economist; February 7 2010, 01:56 PM.

                  Comment


                  • Re : 2010 The Year of Real Estate Bull

                    Well! ...

                    Originally posted by Economist View Post
                    I thought we were discussing real estate, I wasn't this is a share traders forum.

                    we all know that is a different ball game all together.

                    I don't want to go around talking about my tactical move and investment reviews i make on equity related Investments as this forum is not appropriate for that.

                    May be your comments will suite some one buys and sell property for a living and turn over stocks every few months (brokers)

                    BTW I review and make tactical move on liquid investments as that is my profession.

                    REMEMBER!!! WE ARE TALKING DIRECT REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT.

                    if you are not aware direct Real Estate is not traded like shares.

                    No T +2 settlement.

                    Economist,

                    I believe we are starting to bore the others on this forum. The problem with most of us is that we think we are the only people who know something and the rest of the (silent) visitors are morons! They too read what I post and if they don't agree they tell me along with reasons why. Which is perfectly okay. But they don't go around shooting at others about what they write, which is no value-add at all.

                    98% of this forum is about square footage, building laws and bye-laws, hoe much is property at OMR today and so on and so forth. Much of it is factual information which can be got in other places as well. Some of the people coming here provide valuable experiences of their own.

                    All fine. And I can add to that as well by focussing on facts on the ground. But I want to make a slight difference in some other way. In the past i have experienced (and also seen others experience) serious pain when thay make uninformed decisions. I mean when they do not know what coming up over the horizon.

                    You show rather poor understanding of how this world works when you ignore the fact about whats happening around the world on how it impacts us, even in terms of RE. Didn't you hear? The world is tightly coupled in economic terms. And you ignore the coming problems at your own peril.

                    So, while people will keep buying and selling, I try to bring in my view about how to deal with RE the way I see it. After all, I too have bought RE when it was a bargain and made quite a success of it.

                    So, please understand that while I talk about other economies and their health, its from the perspective of how I think all this will eventually affect RE in our backyard. Its not about my knowledge of stock markets (which has also helped me quite a bit!)

                    Remember, you are talking direct RE. That does not mean everyone has to talk only direct RE. If that is the case, you are no different from Udhav Thakeray in your outlook (you are okay so long as you only do what I say).

                    Btw, regarding whether the US and Japan are beyond the point of no return, Japan is factually already in a debt trap. The US has been borrowing around 1.6 to 1.9 Trillion $$$ every 3 months (in Oct last year they upped the borrowing limits by 1.2 Trillion and just last week they again raised this limit by another 1.9 Trillion). As you can see, even in a case as small as Greece, etc (the PIGS) each time there is more debt raised to bailout a country, the entire world lurches a step closer to global financial collapse since this bailout is not going to be regenerated. This is the key and the reason why, in the next few years both the US as well as Japan will collapse economically and EU may be brought to the brink. This is nearing certainity now given the way people are unwilling to cut back and continue to print more and more and more into oblivion. Let me know of any facts you have to the contrary!

                    I will not be responding to you anymore on all this as I'm sure it bores others out of their minds. Read if you like. Ignore if you don't.

                    cheers
                    Last edited by wiseman; February 7 2010, 04:10 PM.

                    Comment


                    • Re : 2010 The Year of Real Estate Bull

                      Originally posted by Economist View Post
                      I thought we were discussing real estate, I wasn't this is a share traders forum.

                      we all know that is a different ball game all together.

                      I don't want to go around talking about my tactical move and investment reviews i make on equity related Investments as this forum is not appropriate for that.

                      May be your comments will suite some one buys and sell property for a living and turn over stocks every few months (brokers)

                      BTW I review and make tactical move on liquid investments as that is my profession.

                      REMEMBER!!! WE ARE TALKING DIRECT REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT.

                      if you are not aware direct Real Estate is not traded like shares.

                      No T +2 settlement.


                      Wiseman thinks by writing at this forum, he is writing to entire Chennai, so the next extrapolation is just terrorize them with the doomsday theory.

                      I guess is sitting on the pile of cash wants to lap-up the lands

                      Read in the other thread where abk posted a message than gave the rates for tambaram.

                      US is recovery is underway, let Spain, Greece, Ireland, Portugal and all go to hell, how does matter to India. What % of trade happens with out of the total trade?

                      Does this guy thinks himself more intelligent than the IT heads, who have started the large scale recruitment in India for accommodating US recovery?

                      Wiseman has false propaganda.


                      You may say I have bought lot of land and I fear for crash.

                      I have the background to buy lands if it crashes.


                      I am telling you all, just wait for 3 years, how many will able to buy land then within the city limits.

                      I had my experience in other city, first of all you won’t find a seller, and then even if you find, the prices will be at the whims and fancies of the seller.

                      Take your own view. Don’t consider the biased theory thrown by some conspirators

                      Where all the engineering graduates in tamilnadu are finding a job? Is there any place other than Chennai? Chennai guys are conservative, many want to live in their own house, and they do not mind paying big Emis

                      In India affordability comes not by reducing the prices, but by increases the salary levels, which will continue some more time.

                      Comment

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